Tag: Egypt

Equality, Liberty And Brotherhood

Since all this began in Egypt there have been those pundits (names withheld to protect the morons) who keep pushing the Muslim Brotherhood as some sort of terrorist state in waiting…..thanx to the rhetoric of Mubarak who has painted them as such and along with those on the Right that are concerned with the group and even some respected fellows at the Council of Foreign relations keep pushing a point that is not accurate…..most of their concern is unfounded…..

Bruce Reidel writing in the Daily Beast……offers up a bit of history for those that refuse to see the forest for the trees……

The Muslim Brethren was founded in 1928 by Shaykh Hassan al Banna as an Islamic alternative to weak secular nationalist parties that failed to secure Egypt’s freedom from British colonialism after World War I. Banna preached a fundamentalist Islamism and advocated the creation of an Islamic Egypt, but he was also open to importing techniques of political organization and propaganda from Europe that rapidly made the Brotherhood a fixture in Egyptian politics. Branches of the Brotherhood grew across the Arab world. By World War 2, it became more violent in its opposition to the British and the British-dominated monarchy, sponsoring assassinations and mass violence. After the army seized power in 1952, it briefly flirted with supporting Gamal Abdel Nasser’s government but then moved into opposition. Nasser ruthlessly suppressed it Nasser and his successors, Anwar Sadat and Mubarak, have alternatively repressed and demonized the Brotherhood or tolerated it as an anti-communist and right-wing opposition. Technically illegal, it has an enormous social-welfare infrastructure that provides cheap education and health care.

The Egyptian Brotherhood renounced violence years ago, but its relative moderation has made it the target of extreme vilification by more radical Islamists.  Al Qaeda’s leaders, Osama bin Laden and Ayman Zawahiri, started their political lives affiliated with the Brotherhood but both have denounced it for decades as too soft and a cat’s paw of Mubarak and America.

It is understandable that we Americans need a good guy and a bad guy, like our old time westerns, but in this case…….the media is misinforming the public….but as has been said….”it is not up to the US”……..

Watch The Army!

Egypt is burning (literally and physically) no body has an idea of what will happen if this continues….will Mubarak survive?  Will the violence continue?  Who will step up and make the right decision?

The first day that Egypt went into the streets of Cairo, I said that if it was sustained then next would be Jourdan and possibly Syria….I was right!  (patting myself on the back…kudos all around)………now after 10 days and counting….the unknown factor in all this upheaval is….the Egyptian army…….the player to watch!

Why?  Easy!  They hold the ultimate power…….

Mubarak, the VP and the PM all have come from the military….but right now NO military commander has stepped up to insert himself into the fray……they are like the Brotherhood…they are waiting and watching…and eventually action will be taken……but in favor of whom?  Now there is the $64 question……

In my opinion…it will most likely be a junior officer……the Army needs the US and its cash….and any decision to intervene will be made from that point……..democracy is Not the only concern here…..

The West needs to keep in mind……No-one with any knowledge of Egypt can forget that it was a coalition of such officers that came together in the post-war Free Officers Movement that overthrew King Farouq  and led to the toppling of a succession of pro-British regimes.

Mubarak’s little speech on Tuesday was nothing more than a delaying tactic….eventually these people who are poor will have to return to their lives before the protests and then he (Mubarak) will have won his reprieve…..for now……but the Army can change the tone and complexion of the protests……..but only if there is a chance of success….no one is stupid!

All eyes turn to Cairo…and they wait…and they wait…and they wait……..

Who Is The Next Big Cheese In Egypt?

The media is scrambling around trying to find some they can propel to the forefront of the “revolution” happening in Egypt….it is pissing them off that they are left in the dark and have to fill their time with actual facts and occurrences….

The question is who will finally step out of the shadows and finally be someone that the media can zero in on and propel in one direction or the other…….There is a list of known opponents of Mubarak, but will anyone of them be the next big cheese?

Reuters compiled a list for the media to fixate on………

MOHAMED ELBARADEI

The 68-year-old former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), returned to Egypt in 2010 after a career that saw him win a Nobel peace prize in 2005. A lawyer by training, he immediately threw himself into the political arena saying Egypt needed a complete overhaul and an end to the authoritarian rule of a military man like Mubarak. He disappointed many democracy activists by spending much time outside the country in recent months, but returned on Thursday stating he was ready to take any role in a transitional government and later addressing protesters at Tahrir Square in central Cairo.

MOHAMMED BADIE

Badie, 66, became leader of Egypt’s biggest opposition group last year. The Brotherhood is run on a collegiate basis, with a number of figures who often speak in its name such as Essam al-Erian or London-based Kamel El-Helbawy. But if it were to enter into talks with the government it would be on the authorisation of its “murshid ‘aam”, or general guide, Badie. Badie is seen as a conservative, in the typical mould of Brotherhood leaders, who was reluctant to challenge the authorities for fear of provoking more repression. Mubarak has made fending off the Islamists a major plank of his policies, accusing them of subverting last week’s protests and provoking the looting and disorder. The government says the Brotherhood is a banned organisation but allows it to operate within limits.

AYMAN NOUR

A liberal politician and trained lawyer, Nour was Mubarak’s rival in the 2005 presidential election but suffered for his impertinence. He was jailed after conviction for submitting forged documents when setting up his Ghad (Tomorrow) party. He was released after serving more than three years of a five-year term. The law as it stands bans him any political office for at least five years after the end of his original jail term, which would rule out running in elections in September. Nour served previously as a parliamentarian for the Wafd party, which he left.

AMR MOUSSA

The secretary general of the Arab League was a popular foreign minister under Mubarak, celebrated by singers for his populist pro-Palestinian rhetoric during years of Arab-Israeli peacemaking. His move to the Arab League, a conservative organisation that backs existing Arab rulers, has tarnished his image somewhat but he has been cited in the past by many Egyptians as someone they would support as president. He has been vocal since the protests began, saying on Sunday he wanted to see multi-party democracy in Egypt.

AHMED ZEWAIL

Egyptian winner of the Nobel Prize for Chemistry in 1999, Zewail said last year he had no political ambitions. However, newspapers said on Monday he would return on Tuesday to continue work in a committee for constitutional reform including Ayman Nour and prominent lawyers. Al-Shorouk newspaper published a “letter to the Egyptian people” in which he proposed a “council of wise men” to write a new constitution.

HAMDEEN SABAHI

A popular Arab nationalist politician who leads the Karama party that has never achieved formal licencing from the government. Elected to parliament in 2005, Sabahi considered running in the presidential elections that year after Mubarak introduced amendments under pressure from Washington but later changed his mind. He was expected to attempt a bid for the presidency this year.

KEFAYA

Respected trade union leader George Ishak founded the Kefaya movement in 2004 that galvanised protests against Mubarak’s rule in 2005 around the idea of rejecting his son Gamal as a future president. The movement, which appealed to middle class professionals, subsequently lost its momentum amid internal dissent but when protests began last week Kefaya appeared to play a role in mobilising them.

OTHER GROUPS

The Wafd party, with its roots before the 1952 military coup, has traditionally been the bastion of liberal democrats in Egypt. But it is seen as having been coopted by Mubarak’s government in recent years. The leftist Tagammu has played a similar role. Magdy Hussein, leader of the Islamist Labour party, is a popular opposition figure who has frequently been in and out jail.

Now you have all the info that the media is working with during this trying time…..now ask which one will they fixate on?  Shall we start a pool to see who will become the knight in shining armor that will save Egypt from itself?

Egypt: More Troubling Brewing?

Yes, we all are watching the turn of events taking place first in Tunisia and then on to Egypt and it continues to grow and protests spring up daily……could this be a chance for democracy, real democracy to flourish in the Middle East?  A question that is on most learned people’s minds…..but there is something that needs to be remembered……

in 1978 the first demonstrations against the rule of the Shah began…basically it began with people taking to the streets to protest the cruelty of the regime, as well as the corruption and the autocratic rule of the Shah and his secret police….originally the people just wanted the Shah and his goons out of power….and in 1979 the Shah fled the country and left it without direction and then the Islamists took the reins of government and….as they say….the rest is history……

And now Egypt, a staunch ally of the US and a recipient of about $1 billion a year in foreign aid, mostly military and is as cruel and corrupt as Iran was in 1979…..this coupled with hunger, unemployment and other social problems….so far there is been very little anti-American sentiment….but that will soon change….the longer this continues the more anti-American it will become……and then a repeat of history will be in the making…..so far the army has stayed out of the protests……could they be waiting for a chance to topple the regime?

Who will step out of the shadows and take his place as the leader of this infant revolution?  Who of the lot will be pro American?  If no one meets that criteria then there will be the Islamists and they have NO problem coming forward ….they will stay in the shadows for now for fear of exposure will cost them their lives….they will wait and see and when the time and the conditions are right these Islamists will come forward and take their place of leadership…….shades of Iran?  You betcha and it could be as nasty as the Islamic Revolution of Iran……

Do NOT act surprise if all this comes back to bite the US in the ass!

Is Democracy Breaking Out?

College of Political Knowledge

International Desk–Middle East sub-desk

Probably NOT!  To answer my own question……..

I realize that NOT many Americans give two craps in Hell about what is happening in Tunisia, which I have written about in the past….but the uninformed is always caught with their pants around their ankles…..

Step back in time a couple of weeks…massive protests in Tunisia over corruption, food prices, unemployment, etc…all the same stuff that many of us are thinking about these days of dwindling employment……people took to the streets…..president (a dictator) went on the lame…..Prime Minister resigned…..and the government was toppled……

A very short and concise analysis of the happenings in that country….but you ask :so what”?  Right?

How about on to Egypt……

The BBC’s Jon Leyne in Cairo says that while the protesters are still only a minority of Egyptians, they show no sign of fading away and there is a chance that many more people will join once the working week finishes on Thursday.

The government appears to have no answer to the anger and disappointment being expressed on the streets, our correspondent adds – its only response so far has been to crack down on demonstrators and increase security.

Oh yeah…they are sick of no jobs, high food prices, corruption and a police state….sound familiar?

So there are a few Arabs upset with their government……and then there is Yemen……

Yemeni opposition members and youth activists gathered in four parts of the city, including Sanaa University, chanting anti-government slogans.

They also called for economic reforms and an end to corruption.

Yemenis complain of mounting poverty among a growing young population and frustration with a lack of political freedoms.

Yemen is struggling with soaring unemployment and dwindling oil and water reserves. Almost half its 23 million people live on $2 or less a day, and one-third suffer from chronic hunger.The country has also been plagued by a range of security issues, including a separatist movement in the south and an uprising of Shia Houthi rebels in the north.

Yemenis are angry over parliament’s attempts to loosen the rules on presidential term limits, sparking opposition concerns that Mr Saleh might try to appoint himself president for life.

Mr Saleh is also accused of wanting to hand power to his eldest son, Ahmed, who heads the elite presidential guard, but he has denied the accusations.

So a couple of countries in the Middle East have a couple of pissed off citizens….what difference does it make to you?  Unrest!  And how could all that effect the flow of oil?

Among the states analysts suggest may be flashpoints are Egypt, Jordan, Syria and other North African countries. Popular frustrations extend to the Gulf, but these oil-producing states with vast financial reserves have a welfare system in place to buy off the opposition.

When or whether other Arab states will reach a tipping point is far from clear. But analysts said Tunisia’s experience shows momentum can gather quickly even in a state with notoriously tight security that had till now effectively smothered dissent.

Looks like a fledgling democracy movement may be a foot….of course most of the countries of the Middle East and North Africa are authoritarian there will be bloodshed…..and there will be a bit of panic and when panic sets in your gas prices will probably go up if it is not extinguished quickly….and the American people will scratch their heads and not understand why they must pay more and more for their gas for the family Hummer……

At least I will be fore warned……..

Addendum:  All this chaos worries me for normal people of the areas….I had a friend in Lebanon and have not heard from her since the protests in that country 3 years ago….it was not like her to go with contact….so I have feared since those days that something may have happened to her……If you have friends in the areas under the protests I share your concern for their safety……