Yes, we all are watching the turn of events taking place first in Tunisia and then on to Egypt and it continues to grow and protests spring up daily……could this be a chance for democracy, real democracy to flourish in the Middle East? A question that is on most learned people’s minds…..but there is something that needs to be remembered……
in 1978 the first demonstrations against the rule of the Shah began…basically it began with people taking to the streets to protest the cruelty of the regime, as well as the corruption and the autocratic rule of the Shah and his secret police….originally the people just wanted the Shah and his goons out of power….and in 1979 the Shah fled the country and left it without direction and then the Islamists took the reins of government and….as they say….the rest is history……
And now Egypt, a staunch ally of the US and a recipient of about $1 billion a year in foreign aid, mostly military and is as cruel and corrupt as Iran was in 1979…..this coupled with hunger, unemployment and other social problems….so far there is been very little anti-American sentiment….but that will soon change….the longer this continues the more anti-American it will become……and then a repeat of history will be in the making…..so far the army has stayed out of the protests……could they be waiting for a chance to topple the regime?
Who will step out of the shadows and take his place as the leader of this infant revolution? Who of the lot will be pro American? If no one meets that criteria then there will be the Islamists and they have NO problem coming forward ….they will stay in the shadows for now for fear of exposure will cost them their lives….they will wait and see and when the time and the conditions are right these Islamists will come forward and take their place of leadership…….shades of Iran? You betcha and it could be as nasty as the Islamic Revolution of Iran……
Do NOT act surprise if all this comes back to bite the US in the ass!
I would be amazed if it DOESN’T come back to bite the US (and the West in general) in the ass. The Moslem Front (or whatever they call themselves) is becoming more vociferous and involved by the day.
Yep… but they will NOT show their hand until Mubarak has left…then the crap will hit the fan…..IMO
Mine too!
This is smacking of Iran…..a repeat of history?
Once again…the beat goes on…….
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5iBRdp_e2fkl1dsnKex0MGArIt65w?docId=CNG.30ff0b57ab72bd5eaa39bfcd8d0f2119.bc1
Yes indeed. There are considerable similarities with the transformation of Persia into Iran – ugh!
Mubarak says he will not run but that he will die on Egyptian soil…..maybe he should rethink that statement….
Yes – I thought that… The only hope is that maybe – just maybe – places like Iran will be encouraged to also rise up against their equal tyranny and your original proposition might then ensue as people across the region rebel against ALL the oppressors – but I won’t hold my breath…
Iran has a history of protests it is a possibility…..
Syria is rising…..and gun shots have been fired in Alexandria as anti and pro Mubarak sides clash…..and so it begins…..
I don’t necessarily think you can equate Muslim with anti-American in this sense. You just have to hope that amid the chaos that could ensue during a toppling of the government, the right guy ends up in control. As I said on WhyWeWorry, I think the best case scenario is for Mubarak to peacefully lead the transition to a better government, and then step out of the way. Whether he will or not remains to be seen.
Welcome Ian nice to have you aboard…….
I agree with you on Mubarak….but he pretty much set the stage for more and more protest by refusing to step down…..the police have been unleashed, at least in his speech last nite…..violence will be returning…..
The demonstrators will almost certainly NOT accept that. They now sense victory and I’d be surprised if they let up now, any more than they did in Tunisia. In theory I agree, but in paractice it’s unlikely to happen.
“the right guy ends up in control” – possible, but unlikely. It takes a strong guy to take charge in such circumstances and such a person is usually, of necessity, pretty ruthless and focussed – and THAT describes the basics of the average extremist. Find one like that and add a dash of charisma and you have your new leader.
No of course Muslim does not always equate to anti-American, but Mubarak is PRO-American – the new regime is likely to be the opposite simply because change ALWAYS tends to swing from extreme to opposite extreme.
I just hope I’m wrong…
The police are back to beating people as I type…….if Mubarak is there after the weekend….I look for all this to turn bloody and then anti-American….
Yep!
You know the more I watch…the more this smacks of Iran 1979……secret police hit the streets swinging……blood….death……bad guys gain power….
““the right guy ends up in control” – possible, but unlikely. It takes a strong guy to take charge in such circumstances and such a person is usually, of necessity, pretty ruthless and focussed – and THAT describes the basics of the average extremist. Find one like that and add a dash of charisma and you have your new leader.”
This is precisely why I say Mubarak needs to peacefully hand over power. If it becomes sheer chaos, we will see something like a dictator pop up and take over.
I don’t know if I believe Egypt will turn anti-American (or anti-Israel) simply because Mubarak has been allied with those countries. They certainly might not be as friendly, but I don’t think turning into Iran 2.0 is in their best interest. Further isolating Israel is bad for everyone in the world since it pushes them to be more extreme, and I think whoever takes over Egypt will listen to what we have to say about it. Just the price tag for their compliance may rise.
Ian, I will agree…the military whoever is in charge knows who butters their pita….the US…and they will play pretty when all this is over….but between now and then a lot of people will get hurt……
I am also weary of the paranoia over the Muslim Brotherhood…….they hate AQ and AQ hates them…and AQ’s #2 is Egyptian but that does Not mean that he is in solid with the Brotherhood…..he has condemned the group at almost every turn….the people that make the connection to AQ and the MB are mistaken……yes they are an Islamic group but does not make them terrorists…the media is making way more of them than there is…..
A beer blog? cool!
Lobotero: Just because MB and AQ hate each other doesn’t stop them both being extreme – look at the GOP, the Tea Party and Black Power. The MB has yet to show it’s full hand, but I suspect it won’t be pretty when it does…
Yes the are both extreme…..AQ thinks that they are wimpy and useless because they are all for using the system to effect change…AQ does not…..and I suspect that you are right…… about their hand that is…….
It’s interesting in as much as (continuing your point about Persia/Iran) the MB is in some ways more difficult for those who believe that extreme religious ideology (ANY religion) is a HUGE danger in the world. MB’s attitude is, superficially at least, legitimate and that makes it much harder to combat than an out and out terrorist group, which makes itself a valid target.
So true….and so difficult for the media to grasp….they do NOT have someone to point to and make a public figure…..and that is what they do…make or break leaders…..
I don’t think you can get much more extreme than Israel already is – the loudmouths that is. The problem is that, once you get to the overthrow of government stage then reason loses all sway and what’s in their best interest will be of little consequence.
As to the statement that Mubarak needs to hand over peacefully (in an orderly fashion so to speak) – I agree, but I think we are way past that tonight!
Blah, would it be possible to switch my name there to Ian? Stupid wordpress…