Between The Two Seas

The two seas I am referring to are the Black Sea in the West and the Caspian Sea in the East…..this region could very well become what is known as a linch pin event….

“Linch pin?”

I explained this in a post I wrote for another site about 4 years ago…..please read for it explains everything….this is an important situation developing……

https://legationes.wordpress.com/2015/07/10/looking-for-the-linchpin/

The reason I reference this is because this region is once again heating up….

Azerbaijan and Armenia both lay claim to the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. This disputed region is located entirely inside Azerbaijan – indeed, it is internationally recognized as Azerbaijani – but the government in Baku hasn’t exercised political authority over it in decades. That honor falls to the ethnic Armenians who populate it. In fact, Nagorno-Karabakh had been a semi-autonomous Armenian enclave ever since the Bolsheviks came to power in Russia. After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, of which Azerbaijan was a part, the ethnic Armenians living in Nagorno-Karabakh, backed by Armenia itself, fought a war with Azerbaijan to keep the territory. A truce was brokered in 1994, and though negotiations over its official resolution have continued ever since, they have been entirely unsuccessful.

Minor skirmishes there erupt every so often – the bloodiest of which occurred in 2016 – but they have never escalated to all-out war. Partly that’s because war would be detrimental to Russia. Its interests are too many in the Caucasus to allow Turkey or Iran to gain a foothold there – something they would surely do if they backed Armenia in a conflict. Still, if Nagorno-Karabakh ever is a cause for war, then Azerbaijan, whose military dwarfs Armenia’s, would have the upper hand.

(Geopolitical Futures)

Our crackerjack State Department needs to pull its head out of the president’s ass and keep an eye on this situation or it could quickly become a problem that Trump will want to fix by some sort of attack.

The region is getting more unstable as the months go by……..

The springtime political upheaval in Armenia stunned neighbouring governments – not least that of Azerbaijan. Since 23 April, when mass demonstrations impelled Armenia’s long-time leader Serzh Sargsyan to resign, the Azerbaijani authorities have struggled to understand the implications for the three-decade-long conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh.

Prior to Armenia’s “velvet revolution”, observers in the Azerbaijani capital Baku believed Sargsyan would continue indefinitely as prime minister. At the outset of the anti-Sargsyan unrest, the demonstrations were small, and Azerbaijanis remained doubtful that the unrest would force a change in Armenian politics. They drew comparisons to “electric Yerevan” – the 2015 protests in the Armenian capital against electricity rate hikes. Even as the demonstrations grew, the Azerbaijani authorities did not imagine that Sargsyan would step down. Every previous uprising in the region had had a “geopolitical colour” – some relation to the standoff between Russia and the West – and they did not know what to make of a popular revolt centred solely on national politics.

https://www.crisisgroup.org/europe-central-asia/caucasus/azerbaijan/azerbaijan-armenias-political-upheaval-double-edged-sword

Armenia has had an election and the new leader is hoped to bring a close to the conflict with the country’s neighbor…..but those hopes could be premature….

For the past month Armenia has coasted on a wave of popular emotion and international goodwill, ever since peaceful protests forced the resignation of veteran leader Serzh Sargsyan and brought to power opposition leader Nikol Pashinian.

Pashinian, who is 42, has appointed a new government even more youthful than himself. He has also promised to crack down on corruption and clean up the old oligarchic system. A country that many had characterized as isolated, stuck, and completely dependent on Russia has confounded stereotypes and now looks dynamic—trendy even. The revolution is still only half-finished, but for the first time in two decades, Armenia is a good news story.

http://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/76414

I will be watching since no one else seems to care……all conflicts are important when they could possibly involve American troops…..we have enough war…..we need NO more.

Watch this blog…….

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3 thoughts on “Between The Two Seas

  1. It seems that Russia prefers Azerbaijan over Armenia, to keep some stability along the border with Iran. However, old enmities between Turkey and Armenia might well ignite at some stage.
    Best wishes, Pete.

    1. I was thinking historically also….this region is prime for conflict….a resource that is in demand, borders that are in question….we can bet that Turkey is watching….they have their hands full right in Syria but there is always tomorrow. chuq

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