The Foreign Crises Awaiting Trump

Now that all the pomp and ceremony is done it is time for me to get back to work with the international relations and conflict analysis….

WE are in our new president’s first full week of rule…..and the news is that his choice for SecState, Tillerson, will be confirmed after weeks of confusion and misdirection……and now it is time for the new admin to face the crises waiting on the horizon….especially internationally…..

Trump wants to undo the liberal international order the U.S. built and replace it with a 19th-century model of nationalism and mercantilism. Its unwinding cannot, and will not, be pretty.

We do not know if the period we are about to enter under the presidency of Donald Trump will be as turbulent as the 1910s, the 1930s, the 1940s, or even the 1960s. But it is a safe bet that if such turbulence were to recur in our lifetimes, it would happen under conditions like those of today—a superpower under radical and volatile leadership, geopolitical rivalries, a populist revolt, and a fragile global economy.

Source: The Foreign Crises Awaiting Trump – Defense One

His most pressing situation is that of the South China Sea and China’s expansionism……

The South China Sea is developing at an extraordinarily rapid rate and the events that transpire in the region in the next two to three years will be some of the most significant geopolitical events in the world.  Inside the South China Sea Region are five claimants, hundreds of contested geological features, and two major clashing superpowers: The United States and China. Four key variables have been identified as the principal factors in determining how the South China Sea will evolve in two to three years: (1) U.S. foreign policy in East Asia under Trump. (2) The Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) increasing reliance on nationalism to maintain its legitimacy. (3) Vietnam and the development of its foreign policy. (4) The trend in the unity of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) as a collective security organization. It is predicted with a high degree of confidence that tensions in the South China Sea will continue to increase as U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s foreign policy becomes more confrontational with China. This will in turn encourage Vietnam to act more assertively, which in turn will drive Chinese nationalism to new levels. We predict with a medium degree of confidence that the region will take on the characteristics of Finlandization as a weak U.S. economic, as well as a lackluster hard power presence drives the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) towards bandwagoning with an increasingly-aggressive China. Vietnam remains the lone holdout, lashing out from its isolated position. Finally, we predict with a low degree of confidence that the South China Sea will deescalate to the mid-2016 status quo as uncertainty in U.S. foreign policy forces all claimants and peripheral influences to pause and consolidate their positions. Black swan events in the region include a radical change in Indian foreign policy towards China and a radical shift in the China-Russia relationship, for better or worse.

Source: Tensions in the South China Sea National Intelligence Estimate: The Next Two to Three Years | Small Wars Journal

Then there is the region that has been a thorn in every president’s ass since 1948….the Middle East….

During the campaign, President-Elect Donald Trump often vowed that the days of American adventurism in the Middle East were over (while incongruously promising to obliterate ISIS with a sophisticated strategy of More Bombs). He excoriated Hillary Clinton for her role in the NATO-led 2011 military action in Libya. And frankly, a principled skeptic of American interventionism could have squinted and discerned some good ideas — even if the intellectual framework remained To Be Tweeted.

But this posturing about a new day in the Middle East was just an elaborate con, like most everything else that came out of Trump’s mouth during this campaign. Team Trump is about to make an already troubled region so much worse.

Source: Donald Trump’s Middle East con

My point is that there is so much that could go wrong in the world and attention should be there and not bitching about protests or trying to bully the social media world on Twitter.

Flash:  Rex Tillerson has made it out of hearings as SecState….vote coming….

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26 thoughts on “The Foreign Crises Awaiting Trump

  1. Hey! At least he had the LARGEST audience to witness his inauguration, remember he would’ve won the popular vote if 3 million illegals didn’t vote for Clinton, the CIA love, love him and were cheering for him (do NOT tell me Trump brought his own 40 pack of “cheerleaders,” because Press Sec Spicer said there were only ten of his team at the meeting). We have the BEST president ever… right?

    Okay, how were my “alternative facts” working for ya?? Ugh. It doesn’t help me trying to be “funny” when the guy scares the crap out of me…. sigh.

    Rex T. is a Tyrannosaurus Rex who will help bring down the America we know and love into extinction. To make pacts with someone like Putin and his ilk will only end up in catastrophe.

    Will others in the Republican party please SEE what McCain and Kasich can regarding this insane president? Are the others all just blind or just too happy to have “won.” Trust me, we ALL lost this time around.

    I’m sorry for going off like this, but I feel as if we’re stuck in Twilight Zone! How did this happen?? It’s important to take our stands as you have been doing. I thank you for your knowledge and courage.

    1. It is no problem you may rant all you want….at first I thought you might be serious….thank god it was sarcasm…LOL….I appreciate your visit and comment…please visit as often as you like….chuq

      1. Ya! That’s exactly how the new administration manipulates the truth. I’ve never seen anything like it before! I read somewhere that Trump will pee on your leg with you watching him do just that; then he’ll tell you with an indignant expression on his face that it’s raining.

        Anyway, I’ve gotta thank Dru (SayWhatUMean2Say) — I got here from her re-blog. I’ll visit whenever I can. Thanks. Have a great week, Lobo…. oh, Chuq! 🙂

      1. I love research and have done my fair share of it. I don’t spout stuff I just hear from alternative news (liberal media, as well).

        Kasich was a candidate I admired and supported. You see, it’s the bipartisan folks that make the most disastrous decisions. Study your candidates, watch how they act outside of politics, be wary of everyone. No one’s flawless. It’s the lemmings who don’t know any better.

        Have a good day!

  2. There’s a reason we’re not doing what we did in the 19th and 20th centuries in regards to our government policies; they became obsolete. I’m fearful that we’re heading into never ending crisis mode that will make the U.S. even less relevant than we already are on the world stage.

    1. Or — it could go entirely in the opposite direction and something good could happen … after 8 years of total stagnation which we have just endured … successfully I might add. If people’s expectations are not positive then they are going to be blind to anything positive that happens. A person always finds what they look for … if they look for positive outcomes they will recognize them, if they look for negative outcomes that is all they will be able too see … People tend to rise to the highest level of their own incompetence and their intellectual forays follow the same pattern.

    1. I am not well versed in the region…I focus my attention mostly on the Middle East and Central Asia…I will check the link out…thanx for the heads up….chuq

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