Inkwell Institute

Middle East Desk

Iraq has all but slipped from America’s collected memory…..out of sight….out of mind……but Iraq is far from being that shining example of democracy in the Middle East……and was not that the promise?

Violence is running rampant……elections are upcoming and NO one knows what the results will bring………but other than that what is happening in Iraq….I mean now that Americans have forgotten everything that had happened………

However, political divisions, in combination with a weak state and high unemployment, make Iraq one of the most unstable countries in the Middle East. The country remains deeply scarred by the brutal civil war (2006-08) that has poisoned relations between Iraq’s religious communities for generations to come.

The central government in the capital Baghdad is now dominated by the Shiite Arab majority (about 60% of total pop.), and many Sunni Arabs – who formed the backbone of Saddam Hussein’s regime – feel marginalized.

Iraq’s Kurdish minority, on the other hand, enjoys a strong autonomy in the north of the country, with its own government and security forces. The Kurds are at odds with the central government over the division of oil profits and the final status of mixed Arab-Kurdish territories.

There is still no consensus on what the post-Saddam Iraq should look like. Most Kurds advocate a federal state (and many wouldn’t mind seceding from the Arabs altogether if given a chance), joined by some Sunnis who want autonomy from the Shiite-led central government. Many Shiite politicians living in oil-rich provinces could also live without the interference from Baghdad. On the other side of the debate are the nationalists, both Sunni and Shiites, who advocate a unified Iraq with a strong central government.

Al Qaeda-linked Sunni extremists continue with regular attacks against government targets and Shiites. The potential for economic development is huge, but violence remains endemic, and many Iraqis fear the return of civil war and a possible partition of the country.  (thanx to ask.com)

And those are the finer points.

While the situation in Iraq is spiraling quickly…..the major issue that could the most trouble is Kurdistan…….

Kurdistan Pas News Agency quoted the head of the Goran Movement, Nawshirwan Mustafa, as confirming that Barzani had told him that he would seek to announce an independent state of Kurdistan within two years. The contentious claims have created controversy across Iraq ahead of the country’s third parliamentary elections, scheduled for the end of April.

A senior Kurdish political figure, speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat on the condition of anonymity, confirmed the reports on Wednesday. The source affirmed that during a meeting at the Goran Movement’s Suleimaniya-based headquarters, Mustafa had said that a potential independent Kurdish state “was discussed as an option

Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, Iraqiya bloc MP Talal Hassan Al-Zoubai said: “Iraq today is closer to a confederation rather than a federal government.”

“A federal government cannot order the [Kurdistan] region to do anything . . . the problem is that the Iraqi constitution gives precedence to the regions and the provinces over the central government—a thing which made Iraqi Kurdistan develop on all levels so that it became more significant than the center,” he continued. “Iraq today is made up of regions, the Kurds being most powerful on all levels, including the Peshmerga’s military strength, economy and investment.”

And there is the rub…….Kurdistan….that will be more contentious than the rise of ISIS…….this could spell the end of a “free and democratic” Iraq.

Well done, America.