We see daily that the media wants us to believe that the economy is recovering, slow but slowly……but is it really in recovery mode?
A good question that has numerous good answers…..if you were around for Reagan then you should be acquainted with the name Laffer…if not then let me help…Laffer is the father of trickle down economics, where if the wealthy get big tax cuts then the benefits will filter down to all strata of the economy…….bullsh*t!……I am still waiting for it to trickle down to my strata! Anyway Laffer has some predictions for 2011…..
Arthur Laffer, President Reagan’s favorite economist and creator of the famous Laffer Curve, believes the economy is headed for a “train wreck” in 2011. And he thinks it will be so bad that the current recession look like the good ol’ days by comparison.
Human Events reports the details:
In a wide-ranging discussion about where the economy is headed, and the fiscal, tax and monetary reasons why, Laffer gives a bleak forecast of where President Obama and his administration are taking the country in the next three years — which he predicts will end with Obama’s defeat in 2012.
“Obama is a fine, very impressive person. He really is. Unfortunately, everything that he is doing in economics is exactly wrong. He is a crappy president,” Laffer said.
Personally, I do not put much faith in any of his predictions……but there are days when hell freezes over and today is one of those days…….I will agree with Laffer that it is NOT over…..commercial paper is close to exploding, and the great Satan of the current crisis, derivatives are still being done by the large players in our economy and there seems to be NO taste for financial reform in Washington…all that leads me to think that it can only get worse, but it will give a false sense of confidence first before the sh*t hits the fan….again!
Good post! I must admit that I agree (on the whole) with Laffer (especially about Obama).
However, in my opinion, banks should be BANKS and nothing more. If financial institutions want to want to play metaphorical roulette then let them, but they should have to do it with their INVESTORS money – a bank’s client is NOT knowingly an investor, just a client and they should not be allowed to get involved in this shit at all!
The trickle down economy – well… it does exist and it does work, up to a point! The truth that NEITHER side will admit to is that whilst, as the Repubs claim, there are large numbers of spongers and inadequate people who deliberately live on benefits (this is even more widespread in the UK where the government often pays them more – of OUR money – to stay at home than they can earn working – in fact, it’s VERY widespread), there are also a lot of poor people who are in truth ALWAYS going to be that way and THAT’S usually because they are, to be brutally honest about it, just plain UNEMPLOYABLE in the modern world. THAT, in turn, is largely because the education system has failed them abysmally.
However, that Laffer idea simply doesn’t work if the corporations are in any way protected and the people are not taught to apply common sense to teir whole lives and THOSE are the REAL problems with it!
To me, the thing that stops MOST things from working is when governments get involved in things they cannot do and are never going to be any bloody good at. In the meantime, they are frequently so damned busy screwing up what they are unable to do and interfering in the minutiae of ordinary people’s lives where they have no business to be involved at all, that they don’t have the time, focus and facilities required to do the things they CAN and SHOULD be doing well!
‘Twas ever thus, though… 🙁
The Obama thing first….personally I like the guy……but I do not think he is a crappy prez, at least not yet, it has only been a little over a year since he took office….with that said…..I DO think that his staff has mishandled a couple of issues….i.e. health care and he was slack when he allowed the Senate and the House take the lead….
Laffer is a conservative economist…he was Reagan’s economic God……beyond that I think if he has an opinion on Obama then give all the facts….his prediction, while think is accurate, is given from a partisan point of view….it will ALL be Obama’s fault simply because he is a democratic prez…..I have NO use for those types…..either Left or Right……I want ALL the facts and I will make up my mind………
Of course, I understand what you’re saying and you’re clearly largely right.
However, leaving ALL partisan matters aside, Obama does seem like a nice and pretty honorable sort of guy. I also think he’s probably extremely intelligent, well educated and able. So, all in all, I agree that I too like and admire him.
However, he’s also pretty astute and he must surely have been prepared for the sort of crap he was always going to get from the Repubs in particular, yet he’s failed to get much of what both he and the American public clearly wanted through the legislative process. THAT makes him weak and a bad President in my book.
I also agree with much of what you say about Laffer, but I think you yourself are being just a tad partisan here… Just because I don’t like what I know of the guy’s attitude (which isn’t a great deal) and some of his political views, doesn’t mean that I don’t think at least the core of what he believes is right. Nevertheless, as I said, I think his view of things is based somewhere in the 1950’s and doesn’t take account of the devious nature and sometimes the outright crookedness of today’s political/corporate processes.
If we could scrap it all (including all but basic legislation and bureacracy) and start over with new people, attitudes and political systems, then I think he has it close to spot on. As things are, I don’t think there’s a snowball’s chance in hell of it working.
Next year? Maybe, but I doubt it’ll be as he thinks. My view is that we’ll muddle along with most of our countries economies continuing for some time yet to bump along the rocky bottom of our respective ponds, mostly in much the same mire and shit as we’re in right now and everyone (except the speculators who always thrive in this sort of economic climate) getting more and more pissed about it.
Of course you are correct…..I was being more than a tad partisan…..but in my defense I watched and wrote about his trickle down theory….and as it was in the 1980’s, the promise of what he purposed and eventually got, did not occur…..NO one below the $1 million income saw No relief as promised…..I do not think the trickle down theory, in economics or politics, works…..his idea that what benefits the rich will benefit the poor has been a bust….
I think, in the coming years he will prove most detractors wrong……I think he was naive, even though he was in the Senate, less than 4 yrs, he did not grasp the fucked mess that it really is…….
Of course and I see that. You’re, as I said, right. However, there is always the possibility that he’s right – if as you say extremely naive.
I believe that, in spite of how it may appear, if the government keeps its nose out and there is a TRUE free market in place, then almost everyone benefits from a successful and bouyant economy – exactly as everyone suffers when the economy’s fucked, as it is now. The benefits to the lower paid may be relatively small, but I do think they exist and some are less than tangible – like fuller employment that gives employees more freedom to say, “up yours, I’m going elsewhere,” which is REAL freedom. The trouble is that unions, governments, greedy bankers, arrogant politicians and more all have to poke it around and screw it up.
Nevertheless, there is a perennial problem – the poor. In my opinion, you can do little for the poor (with the exception of those relatively few who have been unfortunate to fall on hard times when they were normally not that strapped for cash. What you CAN do is to provide a proper, healthy and worthwhile educational environment that will help to reduce the problem in the future for the NEXT generation! My opinion is simple. DO IT! NOW! WHATEVER it costs!
Yes …the free markets based on free choice is more desirable……and I have said that “Hard Choices”, to plug one of my posts (I am such a braggart), but NO one wants to they prefer incremental reform over anything else…..it is a good tactic by Repubs but it is a stall at best…..I think Laffer is one of those incrementalist and it is always from the top down, problem is it NEVER makes it to the “down”
But yes, give me free markets, truly free markets and we could solve a lot of the problems…
Care to view the following video and comment on your blog? your opinion matters!
http://www.freedomandprosperity.org/videos/laffercurve1-3/laffercurve1-3.shtml
A couple of pretty good vids….but I still do not think the theory works…..did not work in Reagan’s days….well it worked for the wealthy one percent but the rest of the US got little or nothing out of it…….Americans expect services but do not want to have to pay……eventually they will wake up to the fact that the government needs money to do what the people want….promising the wealthy tax breaks….is only good for contributions to campaigns…..if you want more people to understand the theory then give them both sides and put it as simply as possible…..