Closing Thought–06Sep19

Lots of talk these days about an approaching recession….the markets yo-yo sessions….up one day down the next 2….just feeds this predictions.

Do you remember the crash of 2008?

The markets bottomed out and billions of wealth was lost….especially the Baby Boomers…their savings was wiped out for the most part.

I bring this up because if and when we have another recession the group that will be destroyed monetarily are Millennials….

Why?

Most are already have massive debt and an recession would wipe out any economic progress they have made……

The trade war is dragging on. The yield curve is inverting. Investors are fleeing to safety. Global growth is slowing. The stock market is dipping. The Millennials are screwed.

Recessions are never good for anyone. A sputtering economy means miserable financial, emotional, and physical-health consequences for everyone from infants to retirees. But the next one—if it happens, when it starts happening—stands to hit this much-maligned generation particularly hard. For adults between the ages of 22 and 38, after all, the last recession never really ended.

Millennials got bodied in the downturn, have struggled in the recovery, and are now left more vulnerable than other, older age cohorts. As they pitch toward middle age, they are failing to make it to the middle class, and are likely to be the first generation in modern economic history to end up worse off than their parents. The next downturn might make sure of it, stalling their careers and sucking away their wages right as the Millennials enter their prime earning years.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/08/millennials-are-screwed-recession/596728/

This group will suffer more problems than the “Boomers” did…..they cannot prepare for this possibility if there is no savings to help lessen any blow from a recession.

Poverty will increase and bankruptcies will increase and financial ruin will be the only option for many.

“Lego Ergo Scribo”

Advertisements

The Economy, Stupid!

The markets have had wild swings for about a year now….but with that the profits roll on for the corporations…..the president’s lack of economic knowledge and the wild lies of something good is just making things worse.

And this past week it has come to a head (as they say)…..it happened in the bond markets……

An economic alarm bell has sounded in the US, sending warnings of a possible recession ahead—and sending the Dow plunging 800 points by the end of the day. Yields on 2-year and 10-year Treasury notes inverted early Wednesday, a market phenomenon that shows investors want more in return for short-term government bonds than for long-term bonds. It’s an indication that investors have lost faith in the soundness of the US economy, the AP reports. What appeared to be a slight thaw in trade relations between the US and China that had sent markets sharply higher Tuesday was quickly forgotten, with the Dow opening down 400 points. By 12:30pm ET it was down nearly 650 points; a half-hour later it had plunged 737 points, or 2.6%, reports CNBC. By end of day it was down 800, the S&P 500 was down 86, and the Nasdaq was down 242, per Marketwatch.

CNBC notes that bank stocks like Bank of America and Citigroup have been the big losers today, down 5% and 5.2% respectively, as “it gets tougher for [them] to make a profit lending money in such an environment.” The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note hit 1.622%, falling below the yield of a 2-year, which was 1.634%. The last inversion of this part of the yield curve was in December 2005, two years before a recession brought on by the financial crisis hit. An inversion like the one taking place Wednesday has preceded the last nine recessions dating back to 1955. When a recession might hit, if it does, is a little hazier. Months or even years have passed after an inversion takes place, and before economists can connect the two. Marketwatch notes Wednesday was the Dow’s worst day this year.

Here comes the “R” word…. a “recession”…..some are running worried….

Then there are the multiple lies about China and tariffs….remember when he said China would pay for the tariffs not the American people?  That was the same lie as Mexico would pay for that damn silly border wall.  Don’t forget the lie about all the billions flowing into the coffers of the nation…that was a lie as well…..

If China was gonna to pay and the pain would all be on someone else then why did Trump decide to postpone tariffs until mid-December?

U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday backed off his Sept. 1 deadline for 10% tariffs on remaining Chinese imports, delaying duties on cellphones, laptops and other consumer goods, in the hopes of blunting their impact on U.S. holiday sales.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-usa-trade-china-tariff/trump-backs-off-china-tariff-plan-with-delays-for-cellphones-laptops-idUKKCN1V31CR

Would “impact US holiday sales”…..that should tell you everything you need to know about these pseudo-economic solutions….even if you are not a genius like our Supreme Leader Trump.

Be Smart!

Learn Stuff!

“Lego Ergo Scribo”

 

Iceland Shows The World

This would have been the perfect gift for the country to give to its people on the joy of the season……start putting the thieves that work at banks in prison…….wishful thinking I know but at least one country has done the right thing…….(read on)…..

There has been lots of mumbling and grumbling about what the bankers were allowed to get away with when they caused the economic meltdown of 2008……..they have made obscene bonuses and still walk among us even after about 50% of the population lost lots of their coveted nest egg that they were depending on for a comfortable retirement….the American Dream was crapped on by the banks and the thieves they employ……some Americans have called for these crooks to be jailed for they basically robbed the population of their funds….but so far they got bigger bonuses and are not help responsible for their actions…….what to do…..what to do?

The small island country of Iceland has shown the world what should be done to these cons……

(Newser) – Iceland has done something highly unusual with some of the bank chiefs blamed for the country’s 2008 financial collapse: put them on trial and sent them to prison. Four former Kaupthing Bank bosses have been sentenced to between three and five years for market abuses relating to a deal where a Qatari sheikh bought a confidence-boosting stake in the bank with money that had been provided by the bank itself, the BBC reports.

Prosecutors said the loans, made soon before Kaupthing collapsed under massive debts, were made solely to boost the bank’s share price, reports Reuters. The bank’s former chief executive and chairman of the board received prison terms, along with one of its majority owners and the chief of its Luxembourg branch. The sentences are the heaviest Iceland has ever handed down for financial fraud, but prosecutors say a bigger case against Kaupthing is in the works

And that my friends is how you hold con artists responsible for their actions……America should follow suit….but NO…we fine them and let them return to the actions they were doing that caused the economic collapse……where is the logic here?

Do You Know What happened In 2008?

Yes, I am talking about the crash and the ensuing recession, the unemployment, foreclosures and the tune continues…….you may know that your 401k is not worth the paper it is printed on…..but do you know just how the crash happened?

I am guessing that most Americans either do not know or maybe they just do not give a crap……but if you are truly interested in educating yourself on how you were screwed….then by all means read on…….if not then maybe a good episode of “Jersey Shore” that teaches a lot about life is on MTV….if you do not care enough to learn what happen then keep thy mouth shut when it blows up again….and make NO mistake ….IT WILL!

A very good explanation has been written by Zeus Yiamouyiannis……..

Here is how the counterfeit value derivative con works.  It’s a game of “I pretend, you pretend, we all pretend, and the taxpayer will pay in the end”.

1) I’ll create an instrument, say a credit default swap (CDS), an unregulated insurance with no capital requirements, with a certain “notional” value. Notional value is just something I assign. It does not have to be attached to or backed by any real asset or actual money/principal, but I can pretend as if it is. (Notional amount.)

2) As a seller, I will just declare that this swap covers the full value X of this company, contract, etc. if credit event Y happens. I receive lucrative insurance premiums and fees for my unbacked promise. The CDS’s value is based in nothing more than my promise to pay. I don’t have to have adequate capital reserves on hand, but I can pretend as if I do perhaps with some mini-reserves based on objective-seeming risk ratios calculated by my mathematical models. (credit default swap.)

3) As a buyer, you can then buy as many of these CDS’s as you want, even for a single default. If you are really sure something is going to tank you can insure it 30 times over (or a 100 or 1,000) and get 30 (or 100 or 1,000) times the return when it goes bust! In regulated insurance it is unacceptable to insure beyond the full replacement value of the underlying asset. Not so with CDS’s. The seller has gotten 30x the premiums and the buyer gets 30x value in the event of default. As a buyer of this phony “insurance” you don’t have a stake in the affected properties, but you can essentially pretend you do.

4) As buyer and seller of CDS’s either one of us can assign our risks to a third party through another contract, and pretend as if we are covered in case our own game playing blows up in our faces. This allows us to retain even less reserve capital and spend freed-up funds on more high-risk, high-(pseudo) return speculation. (The monster that ate Wall Street.)

5) We can purchase and sell of these derivative contracts to each other at unlimited rates to generate massive volume and huge fees and profits. We can simply hyper-cycle risk and take our chunk each time.

According to the Bank of International Settlements, as of June 2011 total over-the-counter derivatives contracts have an outstanding notional value of 707.57 trillion dollars, ( 32.4 trillion dollars in CDS’s alone). Where does this kind of money come from, and what does it refer to? We don’t really know, because over-the-counter derivatives are not transparent or regulated.

Read More…

The answer to your questions are not as difficult to understand as the msm and the economists want you to believe……..once you learn the facts then you can keep your bank and brokers in check….that is if you really give a crap……and Dodd-Frank is a blowjob….it does little to keep the financial sector from gaming the system again and causing another meltdown….personally, I want to see someone go to prison because of what has been done to the economy and beyond that I want to make sure these con men cannot either game the system again so that we, the taxpayer, give them an out…..let them ROT in their own deceitfulness!

On State Capitalism

College of Political Knowledge

My readers know that I spend an inordinate amount of time trying to explain and make complex theories more palatable to the average working stiff…..and I hope that I succeed in some small way so that we all can make more informed decisions in our political thinking……

State Capitalism?  Now there is a subject that would make a person’s eyes bleed or the head explode….we can either look at it as some secret code word for socialism (not necessarily so) or we could talk about the government programs…….it conjurers up some many images for people….but what is it really?  State capitalism, that is.  I am sure that most people already have a preconceived idea of what socialism is and that is the subject for yet another post….

State capitalism simply put is….the idea of combining state funded projects and state regulation of the market with private ownership and profit taking…..if you think about it it sounds a lot like what we have now only on a limited basis…..

Now with that under our belt….state capitalism can impose regulations on labor and generate a bunch of it, especially when capitalists are reluctant to invest  (sound familiar?)…….it can encompass private financial gain with an overview of the needs of the country as a whole….(still sounding familiar?)…..In really bad economic times…it can motivate and stimulate local investment when other markets look more inviting to the private investors…..(once again, familiar?)…..

Let’s be real……state capitalism can be a far more effective way of dealing with a bad recession or depression than traditional liberal capitalism……

And yes, we can associate state capitalism most often with some form of dictatorship….however in dire economic times it may just be the best way to fight a recession or a deep depression….you want an example?  Then look no further than Germany after WW1…here we are talking about economics and not the political theory that we all detest……because of direct government spending in infrastructure and industry….Germany was the first country out of the Great Depression…..

You may not like the idea….but think about it hard….how else will we pull ourselves out of the economic funk we live in today?  Sorry to pee on their parade….but spending cuts and tax breaks will NOT bring the US out of this making of our demise……and is it not government’s purpose to insure the country has a strong economy?

The Land Of Hungry Children

You have heard of the Land Down Under or the Land of the Free or possibly the Land that Time Forgot…..but there is another that is NOT reported so much by the mainstream media….poverty and hunger in the US….with all the crap that the economic collapse has given us there is one that is NOT acceptable, at least in my way of thinking……child poverty!

Black listed news was compiled an excellent list of horrible consequences……

#1 Child homelessness in the United States is now 33 percent higher than it was back in 2007.

#2 According to the National Center on Family Homelessness, 1.6 millionAmerican children “were living on the street, in homeless shelters or motels, or doubled up with other families last year”.

#3 The percentage of children living in poverty in the United States increased from 16.9 percent in 2006 to nearly 22 percent in 2010.  In the UK and in France the child poverty rate is well under 10 percent.

#4 A higher percentage of American children is living in poverty today than was living in poverty back in 1975.

#5 The number of children living in poverty in the U.S. has risen for four years in a row.

#6 There are 10 different U.S. states where at least one out of every four babies is born to a family living in poverty.

#7 Since 2007, the number of children living in poverty in the state of California has increased by 30 percent.

#8 According to the National Center for Children in Poverty, 36.4% of all children that live in Philadelphia are living in poverty, 40.1% of all children that live in Atlanta are living in poverty, 52.6% of all children that live in Cleveland are living in poverty and 53.6% of all children that live in Detroit are living in poverty.

#9 In the United States today, more than 35 percent of all African-American children are living in poverty and more than 33 percent of all Hispanic children are living in poverty.

#10 There are seven million children in the United States today that are not covered by health insurance at all.

#11 Today, one out of every seven Americans is on food stamps and one out of every four American children is on food stamps.

#12 It is being projected that approximately 50 percent of all U.S. children will be on food stamps at some point in their lives before they reach the age of 18.

#13 In 2010, 42 percent of all single mothers in the United States were on food stamps.

#14 There are 314 counties in the United States where at least 30% of the children are facing food insecurity.

#15 In Washington D.C., the “child food insecurity rate” is 32.3%.

#16More than 20 million U.S. children rely on school meal programs to keep from going hungry.

These show the extent of how bad the recession is on the kids….yes, it is bad for everybody (with the exception of Wall Street) but how bad does it have to get to force our politicians to face this problem?  I thought children were our future, if so the future is pretty damn bleak!

We have an election coming up soon……now would be a good time to show your distaste for the policies coming out of Washington……