It is likely, most experts and pundits say, that the polls will tighten, making it look like the election is getting closer. However there are a number of factors which, taken together, can lead to a much bigger landslide than the polls predict.

Many of the issues with poll numbers and other predictions have been discussed separately by experts, such as Nate Silver at http://www.fivethirtyeight.com. But usually they are not all put together.

1. The Cell Phone Issue: Many nowadays, especially young people, don’t have land lines, so most of the polls undercount a section of the populace that is heavily pro-Obama.
2. The African American Turnout Factor: Most polls have likely voter turnout models factored in, based on past turnout levels. If, as is very likely, African American turnout is significantly higher this year and even more Democratic than usual, that can change the outlook in states with a large African American population, mainly but not only in the South.
3. The Latino American Turnout Factor: The same is true for Latino voters, registered and energized by the immigrant rights upsurge several years ago. A greater Latino turnout can be enough to change the results in important swing states like Colorado and Nevada, and have a positive impact nationwide.
4. The Youth Turnout Factor: The same applies to younger voters, who likely will vote for Obama in numbers that this year may ssurpass other demographics, and who will likely vote in much higher percentages than previously.
5. The New Registrants Turnout Possibility: Newly registered voters tend to vote in higher percentages than the population at large, and with new registrations breaking records in most states and many new registrants motivated to vote Democratic, this too will improve Obama’s vote. If they turnout in higher percentages than in previous elections, this can improve his vote significantly.
6. The Reverse Bradley Effect: In some primaries, Obama’s vote was measurably higher than predicted by the polls, perhaps for some of the reasons already listed. It also may be partly caused by African American voters who are distrustful of pollsters and describe themselves in improbably large numbers as still undecided.
7. The Enthusiasm Gap: Obama voters have been much more enthusiastic. With the exception of an uptick when Sarah Palin was first named (which has largely disappeared), Republican voters are much less enthusiastic, which depresses right-wing turnout.
8. The Gender Gap: As has been true for many election cycles, women vote in a larger percentage for Democrats. With fears about McCain’s Supreme Court nominees who would support overturning Roe vs. Wade, with McCain’s sneering about women’s “health” in the last debate, and with more women voting in general, this will continue to be true this year. In even higher percentages, unmarried women trend Democratic, and make up almost 25% of the electorate.
9. The Early Voting Factor: More states are doing early voting, offering same day registration and voting, and more people are voting by absentee ballot and by mail, all resulting in increased turnout. Early voting also gives some voters a chance to correct any voter registration problems in advance of Election Day, and will decrease lines on Election Day resulting in fewer discouraged potential voters who turn away.
10. The Money Gap: For the first time in many decades, the Republicans are at a financial disadvantage. It is not as big as sometimes reported when you put all the Republican campaign funds together with right-wing 527 “independent advertising groups, but it is still important. Obama’s campaign is outspending McCain’s in many swing states (and reserving a half-hour for a political broadcast on October 29th on many networks). As well, the millions of smaller donors for Obama provide more people with a bigger direct stake in the outcome.
11. The Party ID Factor: Voters in many states that have voter party ID requirements show large changes in voter party ID, from Republican to Independent, from Independent to Democrat, and from Republican to Democrat. A generic party ID/turnout is factored into many polls, so if Democratic turnout is higher than what is expected for historical reasons, even by a few percentage points, that can have a huge impact on the results.
12. The Playing Offense Advantage: More Republicans Congressmen and Senators are retiring this year, meaning that there are more Republican open seats up for switching. Additionally, Obama is playing offense in “red” states while McCain is playing defense in those same states. The likelihood of any state switching from Democrat to Republican in the presidential race and in electoral votes is slim to non-existent.
13. The Iraq War: The lies of the Bush administration getting us into the war, the exorbitant costs of what has become our longest war, the disgraceful treatment of veterans, the overstressed military families suffering multiple deployments, the failure of most of Bush’s foreign policy, all have led to large majorities of voters demanding that we end the war.
14. The Reality-Based Program Advantage: Obama’s program is rooted much more in the actual needs of voters—on jobs creation, environmental protection and climate change, diplomacy, and health care, to mention just a few.
15. The Distrust of Bush Factor: In addition to his conduct of the Iraq War and the obvious problems he caused leading to the economic meltdown we face, Bush’s repulsive lack of action during and following Hurricane Katrina have exacerbated our general distrust of Bush’s policies, intensifying the desire for change.

16. The Third Term for Bush Perception: McCain’s inability to distance himself from Bush in any meaningful way ties him to the most unpopular President since polls started.
17. The Financial Crisis Reality: Partly due to McCain’s erratic actions and Obama’s calm, measured response to the financial crisis, but also to the generic preference of voters to trust Democrats more on economic issues, and partly to the size and scope of the crisis, this has accelerated and intensified all the other factors.
18. The “Most Important Election” factor: Every election is claimed to be the most important of our lifetime, but this year many more people believe it is and are more motivated to vote and vote Democratic. This is intensified by the financial crisis, by the last eight years of Republican domination, by the Republican Congressional corruption scandals and general incompetence of much of the Bush administration, by major demographic shifts, and by the sense that there is a real opportunity this year to make a difference on our country’s priorities.

Just a thought!