Tag: Tariffs

Ever Heard Of ‘Cause And Effect’?

Closing Thought–31May19

I realize that the “invasion” of Latin Americans is important to this president and “tariffs” are his answer to all our economic problems…..whether you believe these fantasies or not…there is a thing call ’cause and effect’……

That is ….. one process or state, a cause, contributes to the production of another process or state, an effect, where the cause is partly responsible for the effect, and the effect is partly dependent on the cause. In general, a process has many causes, which are also said to be causal factors for it, and all lie in its past.

A little simpler?

For every action there is an opposite but equal reaction. Did that help?

All that out of the way what am I going on about?

The newest utterance from Our Beloved Supreme Leader……

President Trump has vowed to slap new tariffs on all goods from Mexico—and to keep increasing them until the country stops migrants coming to the US. On June 10, the US “will impose a 5% Tariff on all goods coming into our Country from Mexico, until such time as illegal migrants coming through Mexico, and into our Country, STOP,” the president tweeted Thursday. “The Tariff will gradually increase until the Illegal Immigration problem is remedied at which time the Tariffs will be removed.” The White House says the tariffs will rise to 10% on July 1, then go up 5% each month after that until they hit 25% on Oct. 1, reports the Washington Post. Earlier Thursday, Trump told reporters he was going to make his biggest statement on the border so far.

Trump said in a statement that after October, the tariffs will remain at 25% “until Mexico substantially stops the illegal inflow of aliens coming through its territory.” The surprise announcement came on the day that Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador began to ratify the USCMA trade deal with US and Canada, which could now be in jeopardy, reports Reuters. The tariffs could devastate Mexico’s economy, though experts including trade lawyer Daniel Ujczo suspect Trump will backtrack on the move, as he did with his threat to seal the border in March. “This seems more theater and tactics than a strategy to solve the migration crisis and rebalance North American trade,” Ujczo tells the AP.

Is this just something said to divert the attention of the MSM?  Will it remain if the markets tank?

Does he realize that if this is law and the economic activity in Mexico ceases it will create more people in search of economic security?  (That is cause and effect)…..

This is a silly trade policy…it is that simple……

But let us look at other economic news……

How about those “tax cuts”?……..(Read and weep!)

Despite lofty promises from President Donald Trump and the Republican Party, the $1.5 trillion in tax cuts that went into effect last year have done little—if anything—to raise workers’ wages, boost economic growth, or spur business investment.

That’s according to a new analysis by the nonpartisan Congressional Research Service (CRS), which appeared to vindicate warnings from progressive critics that the GOP tax cuts were little more than a scam designed to put more money in the pockets of wealthy Americans.

In its 23-page report (pdf), the independent research arm found that while the Republican tax law has not done much for workers or the overall economy, it has sparked a wave of stock buybacks, which primarily benefit rich executives.

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2019/05/29/virtually-no-wage-growth-surge-stock-buybacks-study-offers-more-proof-trump-tax-cuts

Billions are pouring into the US treasury because of the Trump tariffs……..

President Donald Trump likes to talk about the money Washington is making from the spate of tariffs his administration has imposed on global trading partners. The catch? Most of it is probably coming from American pocketbooks.

At a postelection news conference on Wednesday, Trump misleadingly claimed that billions of dollars would “soon be pouring into our Treasury from taxes that China is paying for us.”

He got the first part right. Federal revenue from tariffs in the third quarter increased by more than 33% from the same quarter last year, Treasury Department data shows. And in October — the first full month in which all tariffs announced to date were in effect — the monthly collection appears to have doubled from the 2017 level to about $6 billion, according to estimates from daily receipts.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-tariffs-revenue-up-sharply-american-costs-increase-2018-11-1027713336

These Trade Wars are good for the US, right?

President Trump’s trade battles are costing the U.S. stock market $5 trillion and counting, according to Deutsche Bank.

Given the bulk of equity returns come from equity price appreciation, in an escalated trade war with China and now Mexico, the U.S. is losing trillions of dollars in foregone returns as markets sink on the negative headlines, the bank said Friday.

“The costs of the trade war in our view are about its indirect impacts,” said Deutsche Bank chief strategist Binky Chadha in a note to clients. “The trade war has been key in preventing a recovery in global growth and keeping US equities range bound. Foregone US equity returns from price appreciation (12.5% annual rate) for 17 months are worth $5 trillion.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/31/trumps-trade-wars-have-cost-the-stock-market-5-trillion-and-counting-deutsche-bank.html

Someone explain to me where the “good news” is in all this trade war stuff?

Farmers Get Help

Yesterday Our Beloved Supreme Leader had a presser to announce his aid to the American farmer that may have trouble with the tariffs……and they all bow down……

With more than a dozen farmers at his side, President Trump announced a $16 billion aid package to compensate farmers for their losses in the trade war with China. “This support for farmers will be paid for by the billions of dollars the Treasury takes in” from China, he said. That’s not the way it works, the Washington Post points out: China does not pay the tariffs; importers do. Some importers then pass the cost on to American consumers. The administration had announced $12 billion in emergency measures in July. The relief announced Thursday will be distributed to farmers in three installments, with the first payment in July or August, the others in November and January 2020, if the tariffs are still in place.

Randy Spronk, a hog farmer and past president of the National Pork Producers Council who attended the White House meeting, said farmers realize the aid will not make up for their losses in a trade war. “But it makes enough of a difference to keep a lot of farmers so they can survive,” Spronk said, per the Post. The aid for farmers will ultimately come from taxpayers, said one expert, ABC reports. “Do the Chinese pay some of the tariff? Yes, probably in specific cases,” he said. “Do they pay most of it? No, the consumer pays most of it ultimately.” The American Farm Bureau and the National Farmers Union said that they appreciate the help, but that farmers would prefer to have a long-term trade deal with China.

This money was offered last Summer….and I agree with whoever said…”if tariffs hurt farmers then welfare is not the answer”……as always…I have written about the announcement a year ago……https://lobotero.com/2018/09/21/closing-thought-21sep18/

God knows our farmers need the help….but not everyone sees this politicial ploy as the answer to that problem……

President Donald Trump’s snap decision to send billions of dollars in new aid to farmers could be bad for the farm economy and the federal budget.

Many farmers are still deciding what to plant this spring and could be swayed toward crops that receive higher payouts from the aid package, such as soybeans. That would add to already record supplies and further depress prices that have been falling for five year

But the Trump administration’s decision to roll out the program now is drawing critics.

Sen. Chuck Grassley, an Iowa Republican, told reporters Wednesday that the White House should have been more cautious about the timing of the announcement because farmers are still planting.

“[W]e want farmers to make decisions on how many acres of corn and soybeans to plant based on the market and not something the government’s doing,” he said.

“The timing couldn’t have been worse,” said Jonathan Coppess, an agricultural policy professor at the University of Illinois, and a former head of the USDA Farm Service Agency during the Obama administration.

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/05/23/trump-farmer-bailout-trade-usda-1459840

Our farmers do not want the ‘welfare’ they prefer to earn their money….keep one thing in mind….agri-business also will get this ‘welfare’ and that who it is truly protecting.

Where are the deficit hawks?  They have plenty to say when food stamps are on the agenda….where are they now?

Closing Thought–17May19

We are in a war of words and deeds…a trade war….with China….Our Beloved Supreme Leader went on the Tube and soothed the ruffled feathers on Wall Street and the markets calmed down a bit…..but how about the rest of us unwashed masses that do not depend on Wall Street for our wealth?

Me? I do not shop on 5th Avenue so I want to know how I will fare with Trump’s mash up with China…..

Walmart warned on Thursday that higher tariffs on imports from China will mean higher prices, the AP reports. The comments came after the nation’s largest retailer reported its best sale performance at its established US namesake stores for the fiscal first quarter in nine years. It marked 19 straight quarters of same-store sales gains. “We’re monitoring the tariff discussions and are hopeful that an agreement can be reached,” said Chief Financial Officer Brett Biggs. But he told reporters, “Increased tariffs will lead to increased prices for our customers.” Walmart declined to comment on what type of price hikes shoppers could expect and which products would get the biggest increases.

The specter of higher prices was also echoed by Macy’s CEO Jeff Gennette. He told investors Wednesday that if a fourth round of tariffs takes effect, that could mean higher retail prices for both store label and national brands. Target, JC Penney, and other major retailers will be reporting results in the next few days and should shed more light on the issue. Walmart, Macy’s and other major retailers have been left largely unscathed by the first several rounds of tariffs since they focused more on industrial and agricultural products. But that changed last week when the Trump administration slapped 25% tariffs on imports like furniture. The administration wants to extend the 25% tariffs to practically all Chinese imports not already hit with levies including toys, shirts, household goods and sneakers.

While Wall Street smiles the rest of us get raped……well our wallets to be exact……not what I signed on for…..

You?

Tariffs…..Tariffs…..We All Fall Down

Of all the shiny objects that Trump and his lackeys throw out for the news to digest…tariffs is the biggest one for his supporters and our economy…….

I heard a report that advisers in the Whote House aren scrambling to explain the markets to this president…..

Seriously?

A “really smart person” and a graduate of the Wharton School of Business (the second most prestigious school of business) needs someone to explain the economics?  Did he sleep through that class at Wharton?

Let me help his supporters for they are wrapping themselves around a LIE.

How simple can I go?

A tariff is a TAX……how’s that for simple?

A tariff is a tax on goods coming into or leaving a country. That tax might be an ad valorem tax, which is a fixed percentage of the product’s price from time to time, or a specific tax that stays the same no matter what happens to the product’s price. Either way, the aim of import tariffs is to stop cheap goods from coming into the country from overseas and stealing market share of domestic producers. In this sense, tariffs are a form of protectionism, imposed to save industries that are especially vulnerable to competition from overseas.

I have tried to make it simple for people to understand tariffs and their results……

https://lobotero.com/2019/05/10/as-tariffs-come-and-go/

I am not so sure that Trump economic policies were the result of Trump economics……tariffs are proof for me…..they will bring the “surging” economy to a screeching halt.

Stupid is as stupid does!

A couple of idiotic statements from this group of mental midgets……

As the US-China trade war continues to rage, President Trump is not only defending the hugely disruptive effect it is having on the global economy, but promising that the “great patriot farmers” of America would reap the rewards when the US ultimately won the trade war.

Trump promised that the US government would compensate farmers for any losses they suffer from the tariffs, and suggested China would pay for that compensation in the form of the higher tariffs they are paying for the US allowing them “to do business with us.”

Trump’s promises to the farmers are likely driven by the political reality of the situation. Farmers heavily backed Trump’s election, and the trade war has heavily hurt their exports to China, as retaliatory sanctions have left them increasingly noncompetitive on the market.

Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR) was a lot more comfortable with US farmers suffering in the trade war. Cotton insisted the hardship for them was “minimal,” and that China would suffer more than America would, suggesting that made it worth it.

Cotton further said that the hardships borne by American farmers was nothing compared to the sacrifices made by US soldiers in various wars overseas.

(antiwar.com)

Very smart?  MY ASS!

Trump’s lie that this is just a squabble with China seem to have soothed the feathers of Wall Street……markets are a bit more stable…..

Maybe he is smart….smart enough to know that a LIE will tamp down any opposition to Trump’s mash up with China.

As Tariffs Come And Go

Is that the sound of brakes being applied to this “surging economy”?

Trump once called himself , well he has called himself many things none of which are accurate but this time he was close, “Tariff Man”…..as of midnight a 25% tariff was placed on some Chinese imports.

The trade war is heating up: China said Friday it “deeply regrets that it will have to take necessary countermeasures” after the tariff hikes threatened by President Trump kicked in at 12:01am. American and Chinese negotiators met in Washington, DC, Thursday but were unable to reach a deal to prevent tariffs increasing from 10% to 25% on more than $200 billion in products China exports to the US, the Washington Post reports. The White House said that after a “working dinner,” chief US negotiator Robert Lighthizer and China’s Vice Premier Liu He “agreed to continue discussions.” The tariff hike only applies to products that left China after the deadline, which gives negotiators more time to work out a deal.

Trump said Thursday that he had received a “beautiful letter” from China’s President Xi Jinping and while a deal is still possible, he is pleased that tariffs are bringing in “billions” of dollars for the government, the New York Times reports. The tariffs, however, are paid by American importers, who pass the costs on to the consumer. “It’s going to be a big shock to the economy,” Deborah Elms, executive director at the Asian Trade Center, tells the BBC. “Those are all US companies who are suddenly facing a 25% increase in cost, and then you have to remember that the Chinese are going to retaliate.” Despite the escalating trade dispute, world markets rose on Friday, with analysts predicting that a deal will be reached.

A Tariff?

How many Americans can define this economic tact?

No need for Google (but if you want to check my assertions then head to that magic button) the old professor will be glad to help with your refresher course.

What is a TARIFF?

The simple definition….. A tariff is a tax imposed by one country on the goods and services imported from another country.

How do Tariffs work?

Governments may impose tariffs to raise revenue or to protect domestic industries—especially nascent ones—from foreign competition. By making foreign-produced goods more expensive, tariffs can make domestically produced alternatives seem more attractive. Governments that use tariffs to benefit particular industries often do so to protect companies and jobs. Tariffs can also be used as an extension of foreign policy: Imposing tariffs on a trading partner’s main exports is a way to exert economic leverage.

Tariffs can turn into what some called a trade war…….

Tariffs can have unintended side effects, however. They can make domestic industries less efficient and innovative by reducing competition. They can hurt domestic consumers, since a lack of competition tends to push up prices. They can generate tensions by favoring certain industries, or geographic regions, over others. For example, tariffs designed to help manufacturers in cities may hurt consumers in rural areas who do not benefit from the policy and are likely to pay more for manufactured goods. Finally, an attempt to pressure a rival country by using tariffs can devolve into an unproductive cycle of retaliation,

But to help your education I have included a couple of short videos…..

https://youtu.be/zym1na6NhJw
https://youtu.be/JFCssAXaAAQ

One side effect that could come back to bite Trump in his massive ass is a bad jobs number and tariffs will produce that in most cases……

The tariffs will “drive down exports, and suppress job gains for the industry by as much as 400,000 over 10 years. It will also invite China to hit back at American businesses, farmers, communities, and families,” said Kip Eideberg, vice president of government affairs for the Association of Equipment Manufacturers, which represents more than 1,000 U.S. makers of farm, construction and mining machinery.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-10/u-s-equipment-makers-see-trump-tariff-hike-costing-400-000-jobs

This is a TAX….do you get that? It is a TAX on the rest of us mere mortals…..then why is the entire GOP down with this attack on tax policies?

This is just a game to this president….he is trying to do something he promised so he has more to run on than his shaky positions elsewhere.

Hopefully his supporters are reading…..these tariffs are a TAX on you and your family.

Got IT!

Learn Stuff!

Then GO VOTE!

Trade War Consequences

Trump has declared a trade war on China (among others) and outcome is benefiting a country that he has used in the past…..Mexico.

Remember Mexico…that country that would pay for his damn silly border wall? They will not!

But since he has seen fit to declare this trade war Mexico will benefit the most.

The Trump Administration’s trade war with China has turned out to be a windfall for another country the president frequently berates: Mexico.

Consider Fuling Global Inc., a Chinese maker of plastic utensils that developed a lucrative business making paper cups and straws for U.S. restaurants. But President Trump upended all that with tariffs on $250 billion worth of Chinese imports, including paper products. So the company found an alternative, opening a $4 million factory in Monterrey, Mexico, that will soon begin shipping millions of paper straws across the border.

“We had to look for other ways to do business,’” said Fuling Chief Financial Officer Gilbert Lee. The move means the Wenling, China-based company will avoid the tariffs and make up for pricier Mexican labor with lower shipping costs. “Mexico is a very logical and advantageous location for us.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-27/who-is-winning-trump-s-trade-war-with-china-so-far-it-s-mexico

We keep waiting for the return of our manufacturing jobs (that will never return but we were promised) to all that cash that would return from offshore (to be fair some of the cash has come home but not enough)….

Trump’s trade war is not helping Americans in the least…..but Mexico will make out like the bandits they are accused of being (that is sarcasm not a pronouncement).

Freaky Saturday–2019 (Part 2)

Saturday my day of mental relaxation and a bunch of “honey dos”……weather is warm for February and seems to linger…looks like our cold weather ended early this year…..

I have been watching the treatments that the medicos are using to try and help people with problems like PTSD…..I posted about the use of seem psychedelics from the 60s…….https://lobotero.com/2019/02/02/freaky-saturday-02feb19/

Since I wrote that there have been more studies that have shown promise on a wide array of mental problems…….

The reputation of the synthetic drug MDMA has changed dramatically since it was outlawed in 1985. Right now, it’s the centerpiece of a Food and Drug Administration-approved Phase III clinical trial on its ability to help heal the damage caused by post-traumatic stress disorder when used alongside therapy. While those trials are underway, scientists are seeking to understand the long-term impacts of MDMA, preparing for a future where it’s widely used to treat illness .

https://www.inverse.com/article/53143-psychological-effect-mdma-drug

Then there is the study of the “demon” of the 60s….LSD……

New neuroimaging research provides evidence that the psychedelic drug LSD alters the capacity of the thalamus to control the flow of sensory information to other areas of the brain.

The thalamus is a small section of the midbrain through which most sensory inputs from the body flow. The new findings, which appear in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, indicate that LSD decreases information filtering in the thalamus — allowing more information than normal to flood into the brain.

“LSD and other psychedelics induce unique effects on perception and emotion. These effects could on the one hand be interesting to understand certain symptoms in psychiatric patients (for example schizophrenia), but they could also be clinically beneficial for the treatment of other illnesses (for example depression),” said study author Katrin Preller of the University of Zurich.

https://www.psypost.org/2019/02/lsd-allows-more-information-to-flood-into-the-brain-by-altering-activity-in-the-thalamus-53062

The use of the drugs could be disastrous if not tightly controlled….but if these can help someone suffering from PTSD or other mental problem then I say give it a chance before it is condemned.

I must go out to the garden and start getting it ready for the crop this year…….hope everyone has a good day and give someone a hug…make their day.

Be Well, Be Safe……

Sucks To Be A Farmer!

I know I spend a lot of time watching and writing on foreign affairs and international situations……I try to keep an eye on the doings domestically……the one that needs attention is our FARMERS.

I have written about what Trump’s tariffs are doing to our farmers….https://lobotero.com/2018/07/25/the-coming-farm-aid/

There is more news that farmers are starting going broke at an accelerated rate……

Farmers in the Midwest are filing for bankruptcy at record rates as a result of President Trump’s trade war.

Bankruptcies in courts that cover the largest farm states in the country were nearly double in 2018 what they were in 2008, The Wall Street Journal reports.

The 7th Circuit Court of Appeals, which covers a region that includes Illinois, Indiana and Wisconsin, received twice as many bankruptcy filings in 2018 as it did in 2008, during the height of the Great Recession.

The 8th Circuit Court of Appeals, which includes Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Arkansas, Nebraska and both Dakotas, saw a 96 percent increase in bankruptcy filings last year compared to 2008.

https://www.rawstory.com/2019/02/midwest-farmers-going-broke-record-rates-thanks-trumps-trade-war/

American farmers feed the world….what will happen when there are fewer and fewer of them to grow food?  Importation will prove expensive…..so forget that…..

We could always depend on lab grown meat……but that may not be all it is cracked up to be…..

High impact: Proponents of lab-grown meat say it could one day supplant livestock—particularly cattle, a huge source of greenhouse-gas emissions.

The problem: Animal-free meat might be worse for the environment, researchers from the University of Oxford argue in a new report. They say previous studies have clumped together all emissions from cattle, rather than analyzing individual gases. Methane, for example, has a greater impact on warming in the short term, but it remains in the atmosphere for only around a decade, whereas carbon dioxide persists and accumulates for centuries, coauthor professor Raymond Pierrehumbert told the BBC. Emissions from the lab will be almost entirely made up of carbon dioxide.

A pinch of salt: It’s eye-catching, but this finding comes with plenty of caveats. Lab-grown meat isn’t even on sale to the public yet, and the researchers are making a lot of assumptions about meat consumption and future availability of lab-grown meat that may prove incorrect. For now, its climate impact may prove one of the smaller barriers to its adoption: for one thing, it’s still ridiculously expensive to produce.

Thoughts?

Siphon Off The Cash

Closing Thought–14Jan19

Well we watch the tube and the volatility of the markets….wild swings in losses and gains…..it is not normal.

And then there are the trade policies of our president…..his view of his tariffs are not anything like the views from financial pundits…..the news is not good from the tariffs…….out soy bean farmers think they are screwed even after the silly tariffs are removed….

With that said and reported……what about other sectors of our economy?

The financial magazine Forbes reports…..

President Trump likes to say that China and other countries are pouring money into the U.S. with the tariffs he has imposed. However, the countries that are sending goods to us aren’t paying the tariffs . The companies that import goods are paying them , which means U.S. companies need to raise prices (therefore a tax on consumers), lower their margins and have less profit (which also lowers the amount of taxes they pay to the government) or even go out of business.

The U.S. Treasury Department releases a monthly report, which provides how much in customs duties are received by the government (December’s is delayed due to the shutdown. so I have estimated that month’s result). Trump is correct that the payments have escalated in recent months. While they took a jump in the second half of fiscal 2018 (September) from the first half, they have almost doubled in the December quarter compared to the first half of fiscal 2018 before the additional tariffs were imposed.

First half of fiscal 2018: $3.1 billion per month

Second half of fiscal 2018: $3.8 billion per month

First quarter of fiscal 2019: $6.0 billion per month

Increase of 95% from the first half

Delta between $6.0 and $3.1 billion is $2.9 billion  The $2.9 billion monthly increase in customs duties over a full year is $35 billion, which is either passed on to consumers in higher prices or eats into company profits. This can potentially drive a company out of business such as a South Carolina TV manufacturer laying off 126 employees or a Missouri nail manufacturer laying off 200 of its 500 employees.

None of this “news” tracks with the bullsh*t fed to us by the “warrior from Wharton”……..(I still say this person did not get his degree legally…Daddy bought it for him)……these policies are doing NOTHING to make America Great again….NOTHING!

How About That Farmer’s Bailout?

In one statement…..It is Crap!

The Dear Supreme Leader has decided, in the past, that what the US needs is a good trade war to make everything okay for the future…..his trade wars and tariffs have hit our farmers the worst but not to worry the president has a plan to stop the bleeding of our farmers….a bailout!

SO now that it is in place how is it doing?  Are our framers making out okay?

American farmers are struggling to find storage for crops that would usually be sold overseas, with some being forced to leave produce rotting in fields as a last resort, as the trade conflict between the US and China continues.

Farmers in some US states are being forced into plowing their crops under — effectively burying them under soil in fields — as there is not enough room to store them in storage facilities, and they are unable to sell their products thanks to Chinese tariffs, Reuters reported on Wednesday.

https://www.businessinsider.com/us-china-trade-war-soybeans-left-rotting-thanks-to-lack-of-storage-2018-11

And the bailout?

Well $6 billion has been promised to our farmers to ease their pain and so far $838 million have been doled out….so things are better right?

Well let’s be honest……the plight of the American farmer still sucks!

President Donald Trump’s $12 billion bailout of farmers who had been hurt by his trade wars has been a massive bust politically — and a New York Times report has found that very little of it has gone to the struggling farmers who need it most.

According to the Times, the bailout program “has done little to cushion the blow” of the president’s trade wars, “with red tape and long waiting periods resulting in few payouts so far.”

In fact, the Times estimates, just $838 million of the $6 billion worth of bailout funds that have been authorized so far has been paid out.

https://www.alternet.org/trumps-12-billion-bailout-farmers-hurt-his-trade-wars-has-been-massive-bust-nyt

Will the pain continue for the American farmer or will these tariff thingys do what they were promised to do?

My guess is the promises will not be met…..something that is a reoccurring trait of Trumpism.