Assault On The Public Sector

Inkwell Institute

International Studies Group

European Desk

I know there will be opinion upon opinion about the new government in the UK…..there seems to be the same anger there as in the US, but I would like to hear from my friends in the UK on a story that I read…..please, I just want a take on the story, I am not condemning or condoning…just wondering…..

In a story by Chris Talbert:

Conservative Chancellor of Exchequer George Osborne and Liberal Democrat David Laws, chief secretary to the Treasury stood side by side to announce a £6 billion package of cuts on Monday. Laws said that the announcement was intended to send a “shockwave” through every department of government.

The package of cuts reflects the priorities set out last week in the coalition’s Programme for Government. Conservative Prime Minister David Cameron and his Liberal Democrat deputy Nick Clegg unveiled the programme amid some nervousness from the Tory right, which feared that their visceral class instincts might be toned down by the presence of Liberal Democrats in the government. But, as the Daily Telegraph immediately recognised, “behind some obvious Lib Dem language, the hard-line Tory policies have survived almost precisely intact”.

I realize that every country has to make decisions on where to cut the “fat” but is it the best place to start?  Could not the bureaucracy of these countries be the place to start?  Maybe save the entitlement programs for last?  I realize this is not the only answer but is it just easier to attack entitlements first?  It seems so in the US….entitlements are ALWAYS the root of all deficits…..the Boogie Man if you will……..

It’s All Greek To Me

Oh my God!  So much has been said about the crisis in Europe and most verbally the situation in Greece.  Gloom and doom is predicted…..if Greece then on to the others in P.I.G.S. and then if that why not the US going down the drain?

But what if?  What if the crisis in Greece could ultimately benefit the US?  In an article written by Derek Thompson for the Atlantic Business:

But what if Europe’s debt disaster actually works out for the United States … kind of? Tim Duy finds three reasons:

1. Capital Gains for the U.S. Scared investors are running from peripheral EU states that look like they could follow Greece into the abyss. (It’s called the contagion effect: explanation here.) Running from Europe, investors might seek shelter in US investments, driving down our interest rates and giving companies looking to hire more access to capital. Duy concludes, “the odds of sustainable recovery look better every day.”

2. No Tightening from the Federal Reserve. Some liberals and moderates are concerned that the Federal Reserve might try to prematurely tighten its monetary policy by selling assets to squeeze inflation before we’ve achieved sustainable recovery and consistent job gains. But the crisis in Europe makes it more likely that the Federal Reserve will sit tight and keep money easy. After all, a Greece default — which is all but certain — could shock high-debt, low-growth states like Portugal and Spain and send jitters throughout the global economy. The Fed, nervous about feeding those fears, will probably keep interest rates low for an extended period of time with the European debt bomb ticking.

3. Cheap Oil. A weak Euro and a stop-start European economy means cheap oil, relief at the pump for the re-emerging American consumer, and marginally higher demand for cars. An exogenous oil shock helped to pop the housing bubble in the mid-2000s. Cheap gas is an economic lubricant.

What is the possibility that the US could see some minor benefit from the crisis in Greece and possibly the rest of the EU?  What are the possibilities of other countries seeing the same?

Greece 2–The Domino Theory (Again)!

Inkwell Institute

International Studies Group

European Desk

I have listened to all those nay-sayers that see our rising deficit as a problem that will turn the US into another Greece….but is it possible that the US could face the same problems as Greece?  In the 60’s there was a popular theory, the Domino Theory, that stated that if one country in Southeast Asia fell to Communism, they all would….this is just an update of that old belief….if Greece goes, then Spain, Ireland and Portugal will follow…and because of a global economy and the rising debt in the US…it will fall too…..

According to David Leohardt of the NY Times:

The numbers on our federal debt are becoming frighteningly familiar. The debt is projected to equal 140 percent of gross domestic product within two decades. Add in the budget troubles of state governments, and the true shortfall grows even larger. Greece’s debt, by comparison, equals about 115 percent of its G.D.P. today.

But how accurate is that analysis?  Personally, I do not think it is that accurate….I feel it is just a conserv way of using the fear card yet again…..Greece is NOT having any form of recession recovery…the US is…while it might not be a great recovery, there are still signs of the economy trying to make a come back…..Greece is having NO such activity….

Yes the deficit is high and needs some control, but I do not see it banging the country down like that of Greece…as Paul Krugman wrote in the NY Times:

The U.S. economy has been growing since last summer, thanks to fiscal stimulus and expansionary policies by the Federal Reserve. I wish that growth were faster; still, it’s finally producing job gains — and it’s also showing up in revenues. Right now we’re on track to match Congressional Budget Office projections of a substantial rise in tax receipts. Put those projections together with the Obama administration’s policies, and they imply a sharp fall in the budget deficit over the next few years.

The US is NOT Greece!  For one thing Greece does not have its own currency that it could manipulate to help the problem, which would be one way to help, but instead they, Greece, will suffer through years of zero growth and massive cuts in services.  One reason is the Euro.  If you notice that the countries that are having the most problems, Portugal, Spain, etc have NO other currency other than the Euro….something to consider.

What Are They Yelling About?

Daily Agitator

I am referring to the Tea Party folk……I see the signs about over-taxation and taxed too much and taxation without representation and on and on and……..ad nauseum!

But the TRUTH and I hope you realize the emphasis on the word TRUTH…..is something a bit different than what the GOP and the TP would have us believe……

You wouldn’t know it from the clamor of anti-tax protests, but Americans turned over a lower share of their income to the taxman last year than at any time since the Truman administration, according to a USA Today analysis. State, local, and federal taxes took up 9.2% of income last year, the lowest proportion since 1950 and well below the average of 12% over the last 50 years.

The tax rate paid by all Americans has shrunk 26% since the recession began in 2007, largely because of tax cuts in the stimulus package and lower consumer spending reducing the amount of sales tax paid. Do the figures mean all those Tea Party tax protests are wrong-headed? Not so, says Adam Brandon at protest organizer FreedomWorks. The real problem, he says, is runaway spending and the huge deficit, which is going to have to be paid for by future taxes.

That from a post on Newser on 12 May 2010.

Just what are they worked up about?  If the taxation thing is not it, then what?  Could it be a color thing and the tax thing is just a cover?  What are these uninformed people really protesting?

Recovery Well On Its Way!

Daily Agitator

May I see a show of hands from all those that see a clear path forward in the economic situation we are fighting these day?  If you raised your hand please write down why you feel the recovery is doing well…..

Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic activity, rose at a 3.2 percent annual rate in the first three months of the year, the government said Friday. That was the third straight quarter of increase, driven by a rise in spending by American consumers and increased business investment.

Good news, right?  Well yes and no…yes, it means that Americans are spending, but if they are spending they are not saving…..which is good if you want the economy to recovery…but then are they spending “real” money or their plastic?  If the later then a personal recovery is NOT going to happen and this could start yet another recession or at least feed it….to my mind this is “plastic” spending and in NO way shows that the rest of the economy is in good shape.

Unemployment remains steady at 9.7% or so and that is just those applying for benefits, nothing is said about the many that are gone from the rolls and may have stop looking for work……even this supposed “good news” economically if it stays kind of consent will mean only about a .5% drop in unemployment at the end of the year…

Once again the “good news” is for investors not those that actually work for a living……..

drags on the economy this year are residential and commercial real estate. In the first quarter, both declined, with residential investment falling at a 10.9 percent rate and investment in business structures dropping at a 14 percent rate.

As much as some do not want to admit…if it were not for the stim plan….we would be under a huge pile of crap…….the stim plan has done a lot to slow the recession, for without we would be standing in a soup line…..I know it is government spending…but if not them…then who?

There is only so much crap that they can spread on the economy and believe me….they lay it on thick!  Look into your wallet……is the recession getting better?  Is the recovery effecting you?

A 2011 Prediction

We see daily that the media wants us to believe that the economy is recovering, slow but slowly……but is it really in recovery mode?

A good question that has numerous good answers…..if you were around for Reagan then you should be acquainted with the name Laffer…if not then let me help…Laffer is the father of trickle down economics, where if the wealthy get big tax cuts then the benefits will filter down to all strata of the economy…….bullsh*t!……I am still waiting for it to trickle down to my strata!  Anyway Laffer has some predictions for 2011…..

Arthur Laffer, President Reagan’s favorite economist and creator of the famous Laffer Curve, believes the economy is headed for a “train wreck” in 2011. And he thinks it will be so bad that the current recession look like the good ol’ days by comparison.

Human Events reports the details:

In a wide-ranging discussion about where the economy is headed, and the fiscal, tax and monetary reasons why, Laffer gives a bleak forecast of where President Obama and his administration are taking the country in the next three years — which he predicts will end with Obama’s defeat in 2012.

“Obama is a fine, very impressive person. He really is. Unfortunately, everything that he is doing in economics is exactly wrong. He is a crappy president,” Laffer said.

Personally, I do not put much faith in any of his predictions……but there are days when hell freezes over and today is one of those days…….I will agree with Laffer that it is NOT over…..commercial paper is close to exploding, and the great Satan of the current crisis, derivatives are still being done by the large players in our economy and there seems to be NO taste for financial reform in Washington…all that leads me to think that it can only get worse, but it will give a false sense of confidence first before the sh*t hits the fan….again!

Don’t Look Now But It Is Not Over!

We hear daily conflicting reports on how the economy is doing….first it is good, then after adjustments, not so good….we hear that banks are paying out massive bonuses and still using taxpayer cash…..we hear lots of manure daily, weekly and monthly on the condition of the American economy……investors are thrilled at the news…but the rest of us wait for our turn for attention…

Neil Barofsky of the TARP Fund office sees something a little different than the media:

Neil Barofsky, the special inspector general for the US bank bailout, released his quarterly report to Congress Saturday, saying, “It is hard to see how any of the fundamental problems in the [financial] system have been addressed to date.”

The document claimed that the financial system is more dangerous now than ever before because banks have reason to think the government will step in again when their speculative bets go bad. “Even if TARP saved our financial system from driving off a cliff back in 2008, absent meaningful reform, we are still driving on the same winding mountain road, but this time in a faster car,” Barofsky wrote.

Following the financial meltdown, the biggest banks grew even bigger as they bought up their failed rivals. As Barofsky put it in his report, “To the extent that huge, interconnected, ‘too big to fail’ institutions contributed to the crisis, those institutions are now even larger, in part because of the substantial subsidies provided by TARP and other bailout programs.”

The report emphasized that, despite the trillions of dollars provided by the bailout, the banks have continued to decrease lending. Barofsky stated, “Although there was this public disclosure that the purpose of these programs was to increase lending, very little, if anything, was done to encourage or direct lending.”

The report does not sound too cheery about the future of the economy…….it seems that the same conditions that caused the economic problems are still there and waiting for the next chance to throw a monkey wrench into the machinery of the economy…..no amount of cash thrown at a problem will solve it if the underlying conditions remain…it is NOT rocket science….it is common sense….

Yet Another Stim Plan?

Many on the Left as well as others have been mouthing that there needs to be yet another stim plan to help us out of the recession that is crippling the US…….of course there are others, mostly on the Right, that say it will be way too expensive and it would expand the deficit even further……

So Professor, will there be yet another stim plan?  Easy and simple answer is YES……but it will not be called that…..there will be some other cutesy label put on it to try and make it look like something other than what it is…..another stim plan…..

Professor, please qualify that answer…….sure thing people……let us begin with demand….there is NO demand……with no consumer demand there will be little to no jobs created…..no jobs then no expansion of inventories and then NO recovery……it is just that simple….

Then how will the economy recovery?  The new stim plan will not use that label but it will employ such tactics as cash for clunkers, extension of unemployment benefits, etc….things already used that have helped the economy in a minor way…there is already some indications of this will be their tactic….like the cash for caulkers, which is suppose to help people spend money on weatherizing their homes and businesses….

Basically, this is an end run, to use a sports analogy, to help the economy to start its recovery…..personally, I do not think this will do all they intend…..the first stim plan should have been used in other ways than they used it……as I have always said…..it is always good to create demand….without it there is NO recovery….

But this is not just an idle issue…..

More than 230 mayors are in Washington for the winter meeting of the United States Conference of Mayors, and many said they had been forced to impose layoffs, furloughs, service reductions and fee increases to deal with falling municipal revenue. The next fiscal year looks even worse, they said.

“We are in the middle of a ‘jobs emergency’ that demands decisive and swift action,” said Elizabeth Kautz, the mayor of Burnsville, Minn., and president of the conference. “We need the Senate to pass a Main Street jobs package now.”

Mayor Kautz is a Republican, and while many Republicans in Congress oppose a second stimulus package, many of the Republican mayors here support it.

The economy is NOT looking good….but is a second stim plan really going to help or just be another massive bailout of gamblers and thieves as the first one was?  We have heard lots of lip service about jobs….but where are those jobs?….what sector is employing people?  This is just another “gimme” to Wall Street!

Should He Go Or Should He Stay #3

This is the final part of my series on why the Obama economioc team should get the Hell out of Washington…..

I have said in my other two parts that Geithner and then Bernanke should depart as the economic team in Washington…..but I would be remiss if I left out the actor in the wings…the guy backstage that is a :key” piece of the economic recovery team….Larry Summers.

In the beginning there was Larry Summers…Mister Magic was wanted as secretary of treasury but was left out because of his controversial time at Harvard when he made some unfortunate comments about women…..the future Prez and his handlers figured that Summers would be a huge distraction and that their proposals would go unnoticed by the sideshow of his nomination….so he became a behind the scenes adviser and let Geithner fade the heat because he was more easily nominated….

But to me there is more to this story than most know and because of that I say he needs to be yet another member of the Obama adviser corps that nbeeds to leave Washington and maybe the middle class would have a fighting chance with new economic leadership….

So of the stuff that was readily reported about Summers and his ‘expert’ economic leadership…….the website Exiledonline.com has an excellent anbalysis on the past economic endeavors of Larry Summers……

But let’s return to the Summers timeline. After his stint in the Reaganomics brain trust, he returned to Harvard to serve as one of the university’s youngest professors. In 1988, he was Michael Dukakis’s chief economic advisor, but when that campaign failed to bring Summers to power, he turned to America’s great rival, the former Soviet Union, to try out his economic experiments. In 1990, Lithuania, a restive Soviet republic seeking independence, hired Summers to advise on that country’s economic transformation. Poor Lithuania had no idea what it got itself into. This was Summers’s first opportunity to tackle a country in economic crisis and put his wunderkind theories into practice. The results were literally suicidal: in 1990, when Summers first arrived, Lithuania’s suicide rate was 26.1 per 100,000 and falling. Just five years after Summers got his hands on Lithuania’s economy, life became so unbearable under the economic transition that the suicide rate nearly doubled to 45.6 per 100,000, worse than any other ex-Soviet republic in transition. In fact, it was the highest suicide rate in the world, suggesting something particularly harsh and brutal about the economic transition in that country as opposed to the others, where suffering and pain were common. Things got so bad that in 1992, after just two years of Summers-nomics, the traumatized Lithuanians voted the communist party back into power, the first East European nation to do so–even though just a year earlier Lithuanians actually died on the streets fighting communism.

Fresh off his success in Lithuania, Summers moved to the World Bank, where he was named the chief economist in 1991, the year he issued his famous let’s-pollute-Africa memo. It was also the year that Summers, and his Harvard protégé Andrei Schleifer (who worked with Summers on the Lithuania economic transformation), began their catastrophic “rescue” of Russia’s crisis-ridden economy. It’s a complicated story involving corruption, cronyism and economic devastation. But by the end of the 1990s, Russia’s GDP had collapsed by more than 60 percent, its population was suffering the worst death-to-birth ratio of any industrialized nation in the twentieth century, and the financial markets that Summers and Schleifer helped create had collapsed in what was then the world’s biggest debt default ever. The result was the rise of Vladmir Putin and a national aversion to free markets and anything associated with Western liberalism.

In light of all of the corruption, cronyism and devastation that have marked his career, Summers’ statements about an under-polluted Africa or intellectually-inferior women no longer seem like provocative eccentricities but part and parcel of the Summers shtick. And now there’s talk that President-elect Obama may hand the keys to national treasury to Summers–meaning that he’ll be in charge of overseeing a trillion-dollar taxpayer bailout of the entire financial industry, a process already rife with conflicts of interest, cronyism and corruption.

Now I asked…after you guys have read this about Summers what part of his past would lead you to believe that he would have any successful answers to the recession?  What part of his past shows any concern for the plight of the middles class?

Now with the abysmal record and doings of the “big three’ of economic recovery, what part or which one of them seems to have a grip on what to do to improve our standings?  For the good of the country…ALL three of these people should be run out of Washington on a rail with tar and feathers applied….NONE of them has the interest of the middle class as a priority….they are ALL paid for by Wall Street and they function as Wall Street surrogates in Washington.

You Really Want To Worry?

Of course you do……living conditions for most Americans leads to worry…..

There is much that we have to worry about….most important is employment…..we always get the “good” news from the tube but sorry to say, there are a few things that need to be pondered.

While surfing I came across an article written by Dan Froomkin of the Huffington Post and he outlined some things that, if you must worry, then these should be the most important:

No. 1: The middle class may never be the same again

The full effects of the crash of 2007-2008 on the lives of regular Americans has yet to be fully appreciated. For most members of the middle class, their sense of financial well-being was largely based on the size of their 401(k)s and their equity as homeowners. After the collapse of stock prices and with the steep drop in home prices, many may never feel the same way again, or spend their money as confidently.

No. 2: The recovery could take a really long time

Even assuming that we are at the beginning of an enduring recovery, there are many signs that it will be a slow one, and that it could be as long as a decade until most American families return to the standard of living they enjoyed before the crash.

Most notably, unemployment is widely expected to be astronomically high for at least another year or two — remaining around 10 percent through 2010.

No. 3: The recovery could only be temporary

For the past decade or so, the growth of the U.S. economy was primarily fueled by the credit and housing bubbles — which now turn out to have been illusory. So what will spur growth this time? Especially with so many Americans out of work? Where’s the demand going to come from?

Citing, among other things, the likelihood that the U.S. savings rate could go markedly higher in the coming years, Nobel laureate economist Joseph Stiglitz warns that “we are not seeing a recovery of sustained consumption,”and says there is a “significant chance” of a double-dip recesssion for that reason.

No. 4:  This time, we don’t have the tools to get out of a recession

The recognized way of dealing with a recession is to lower interest rates in order to stimulate the economy. But the Federal Reserve can’t lower the rate to below zero, so that’s out.

The government can pour vast amounts of money into the economy, either through a stimulus or a massive bailout — or, as the case may be, both.

But next time around, that money might not be there. Not only could the political will be lacking, but there is an upper limit to just how much money the country can borrow and spend at one time without it doing more harm than good.

No. 5: The ‘very serious’ people in Washington are still obsessed about the deficit

In Washington salons and newsrooms, you are not considered a serious person unless you are very, very worried about the deficit. The principle that reducing the deficit is of the greatest urgency (and must come at the cost of entitlements) is for some reason firmly lodged in the halls of power in Washington. An example of just how uncontroversial deficit hawkery is among Washington’s elite was provided by The Washington Post earlier this month when it apparently didn’t think twice about turning over its news columns to an organization funded by Peter G. Peterson, the billionaire investment banker on a crusade to reduce the deficit by looting Social Security.

But deficit hawkery right now is not just ludicrous, it’s dangerous. As New York Times columnist Paul Krugman noted recently, “the calls we’re already hearing for an end to stimulus, for reversing the steps the government and the Federal Reserve took to prop up the economy, will grow even louder.”

No. 6: Whatever is making the stock market go up could go away

The giddiness over the recovering stock market makes it easy to overlook some key questions about its rise. But what exactly has sent the Dow up almost 70 percent since March? Could it be another bubble? And could it burst?

No. 7: The hugely irresponsible financial sector remains unchastened

But the big banks, with their enormous political clout, appear to be managing to duck the re-regulation that seemed inevitable a year ago — and they are now in fact more powerful than ever. The ultimate litmus test is that the banks that are “too big to fail,” rather than being broken up, are now making huge profits — and paying astronomical bonuses — based on the implicit guarantee that the government will pay their debts if they ever face bankruptcy. Indeed, that government backstop gives them every reason to place riskier bets than ever. Even Obama’s latest, much more assertive and populist proposal to limit bank activities does not break up those banks — and faces an uncertain future in our nearly paralyzed legislative branch.

A helluva list and I would agree with him on most of them….there are a wealth of issues to worry about…let the high paid pundits lie to you….IT IS THE ECONOMY. STUPID!

Main Street America does NOT care about all the posturing for political gain…..they want work!