Tag: Public Opinion

Argumentum ad populum–Revisited

College of Political Knowledge

Professor’s Classroom

Subject: Political Theory/Elections/Campaigns

Paper #31

Do you watch the news? You know all those Medicare recipients that are bitching about a government take over of Health care….or all those macho little pricks with their guns worn in public…or maybe elected officials that are spouting fears of socialism or out right lying to stir up the people in opposition to any Dem health care agenda coming out of Washington.

I know….I know all that is old hat….so what is new?

Since most schools have eliminated the teaching of Latin and I do not want my reader to have a brain aneurysm trying to decipher the title of this post….let me help out….”argumentum ad populum”…..In Logic, a proposition to be true because many or all people believe it; it alleges, “If many believe so, it is so.”

Just where am I going with this? Right? Good question and hopefully you will get your answer.

The idea has many names: appeal to the masses, strong appeal to belief, strong appeal to the majority, strong appeal to the people, strong argument by consensus, strong authority of the many, and strong bandwagon fallacy.

See what I am saying? The GOP is plying this tactic in the health care debate. That is to use every tactic available to sway a mass amount of people that will make the case for them. It is a fallacious argument at best…but it is effective if one figures in the rational ignorance effect. (for definition, go to my page with the same name).

How about a little clarification?

The argumentum ad populum is a “Red herring (fallacy)”. It appeals on probabilistic terms; given that 75% of a population answer A to a question where the answer is unknown, the argument states that it is reasonable to assume that the answer is indeed A. In cases where the answer can be known but is not known by a questioned entity, the appeal to majority provides a possible answer with a relatively high probability of correctness.

It is logically fallacious because the mere fact that a belief is widely held is not necessarily a guarantee that the belief is correct; if the belief of any individual can be wrong, then the belief held by multiple persons can also be wrong. The argument that because 75% of people polled think the answer is A implies that the answer is A fails, for if opinion did determine truth, there be no way to deal with the discrepancy between the 75% of the sample population that believe the answer is A and 25% who are of the opinion that the answer is not A. However small the percentage of those polled is distributed among any remaining answers, this discrepancy by definition disproves any guarantee of the correctness of the majority. In addition, this would be true even if the answer given by those polled were unanimous, as the sample size may be insufficient, or some fact may be unknown to those polled that, if known, would result in a different distribution of answers.

Thanx to wiki for the above definition.

Polls are used in this way….i.e. if the prez has 51% approval down from 56% then the people are losing confidence…..,good work, but that is not necessarily the case. The idea is to make it look as if more people believe in a thing and in doing so, that it is correct and true. Once again , not necessarily so.

People need to check everything they are told…most times it is either misinformation, taken out of context or an outright LIE!  Just look at the polls that are out now….31% on the responders think Pres. Obama is a Muslim…..so what was all the finger pointing about back during the election when HIS pastor made some inappropriate statements….all the crap about how could he attend a church where thew pastor was so radical…a Muslim would NOT attend a Christian church…so what is this whole Muslim thing all about?

The only thing that it shows me is that Americans are gullible and have NO memory at all when it comes to politics……they are subject to the “argumentum ad populum” ….saying so makes it so!  A STUPID way to approach the important issues in our society.

Baucus Has A Plan!

The Prez will address Congress tonight and what will he say and what will they, being Dems, do?  Well single payer is DOA…public option looks like it is in big trouble….the limited life support that has been offered to the plan is doing little good.  But there is a bright spot….well if you like bright spots…..the “Gang of Six” in the Senate is working on a bi-partisan approach.

There has been many, many health reform offerings but the one that has caught my attention is the one offered up by Sen. Baucus.  His proposal has little to do with covering all Americas but rather to offer up insurance reform not health reform.

Of all the points in his miserable plan there is one that is disturbing……it will be mandated they people will have insurance or pay a fine…….$750/yr for individuals and $1500/yr per family if there is no insurance.  Cool, right?  But now ask yourself about the unemployed….do they have to be covered or pay a fine?  Do they have to pay the fine at the expense of food and shelter?

The Baucus plan is nothing more than allowing the insurance companies, et al run amok even more so than now….

Will the Prez embrace this wad of crap in the name of a victory on health care?  Sad to say, it is beginning to smell like a cop out of the Dems in the name of success on reform, whether it is success or not.

Is The Government Doing Its Part?

Excerpts from an article written by staffers of politicalaffairs.net
The US government has failed to live up to the expectations of its citizens regarding the provision of basic needs, a new international poll released this week showed.

According to the results of the survey conducted by World PublicOpinion.org this summer, American respondents to the poll by high margins stated they believe the US government has a large role to play in the provision of basic food needs, education, and health care.

Almost three in four Americans said the US government has a responsibility to help ensure that people are able to meet their food needs. Almost half, however, indicated that the US government failed to meet these needs “at all” or “very well.”

Even more Americans agreed that the US government is responsible to providing access to education. According to the survey, more than 80 percent of Americans believed the government should play a role in providing education. Only six in 10 Americans felt the government adequately accomplished the task.

On the issue of health care, Americans expressed the most concern about the government’s responsibility and its job performance. Almost eight in 10 Americans said the government is responsible for providing this basic need, but only three in 10 gave it good marks for its role in this.

Overall, American opinions on these three areas of concern reflect, more or less, typical opinions on the role of government globally. The poll showed, however, wide variations among people from different countries on how well their governments lived up to that responsibility.

Overall, respondents expressing the highest levels of satisfaction with their government’s performance in meeting such needs are found in China, Great Britain, Jordan, and the Palestinian Territories. The lowest levels are found in Russia, Ukraine, Argentina, and Nigeria.

American responses to the survey expressed the third largest amount of dissatisfaction with the government’s role in the provision of health care. While citizens of China, Palestine, and Indonesia expressed greater satisfaction on this issue than Americans by large margins, only Russians, Ukrainians, and Argentinians expressed more disapproval.

View Of Military Service Improves

First of all, it is Veterans Day and I wish to take this opportunity of thank any of my readers that are serving or have served in the military of the US.  This is your day and thank you.  Have a burger and beer for me.

And now we will move on.  As reported in the Christian Science Monitor.

The American public’s increased uncertainty about military service, as casualties mounted from the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, has for the first time in several years begun to abate.

It’s not exactly clear what is causing the new trend. But military experts and defense officials speculate that the decline in casualties in Iraq and an economic downturn at home mean more Americans see themselves joining the military or supporting someone who does.

The changing perceptions could be crucial for the next presidency, as the nation considers expanding the military even more to meet demands around the world. President-elect Barack Obama has hinted that military service is a centerpiece of his idea of national service.

Over the long term, if the trend holds, it could help increase the overall quality of the force and potentially improve upon its ethnic and economic diversity.

While the military continues to rate highly in public opinion polls – consistently above other national institutions – far fewer Americans are actually interested in joining it or seeing their son or daughter do so. And since 2003 when the US invaded Iraq, the willingness of American youth to serve in the military has decreased significantly.