Closing Thought–08Oct21

There was a day when Americans cared about the possibility of a nuclear war that would destroy our way of life…..now no one seems to care about that possibility…..we use to protest the building of more bombs that kill and the building of more nuclear power plants…..now no one gives a crap. My concern never waned.

So just how many nukes does the US have on hand?

In a reversal of Trump administration policy, the State Department on Tuesday disclosed the number of nuclear weapons in the US stockpile, the AP reports. It said this will aid global efforts to control the spread of such weapons. The number of US weapons, including those in active status as well as those in long-term storage, stood at 3,750 as of September 2020, the department said. That is down from 3,805 a year earlier and 3,785 in 2018. As recently as 2003, the US nuclear weapon total was slightly above 10,000. It peaked at 31,255 in 1967.

The last time the US government released its stockpile number was in March 2018, when it said the total was 3,822 as of September 2017. That was early in the Trump administration, which subsequently kept updated numbers secret and denied a request by the Federation of American Scientists to declassify them. “Back to transparency,” said Hans Kristensen, director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists. He said the Biden administration was wise to reverse the prior administration’s policy.

Kristensen said disclosing the stockpile number will assist US diplomats in arms control negotiations and at next year’s Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty conference, which will review the disarmament commitment made by nuclear powers who are treaty signatories, including the United States. The Biden administration is conducting a nuclear weapons posture and policy review that is expected to be completed early next year. At the Conference on Disarmament last February, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said, “President Biden has made it clear: the US has a national security imperative and a moral responsibility to reduce and eventually eliminate the threat posed by weapons of mass destruction.”

And yet those are NOT enough….the US is building more weapons as an upgrade or so we are told.

I was against nukes in all forms since the late 60s and my position has never faltered…..but I seem to walking that path pretty much alone these days.

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

Aliens Beware!

Closing Thought–16Oct20

This is not about our presidents hatred of immigrants but rather his silly threat to aliens of the ET type.

Recently Donald the Orange was asked about the alien sightings.

Donald Trump did not deny media reporting that the US Department of Defense has set up a task force to examine “unidentified alien phenomena” after the Air Force released a video earlier this year showing pilots flying by what many people have speculated was a UFO.

“Can you explain why the Department of Defense has set up a UFO task force?” Fox News host Maria Bartiromo asked Mr Trump in an interview on Sunday.

“Are there UFOs?” she asked.

“Well, I’m going to have to check on that. I mean, I’ve heard that. I heard that two days ago. So I’ll check on that. I’ll take a good, strong look at that,” Mr Trump said.

He then quickly segued into a boast about US military might, which some people on Twitter took to be the president threatening aliens with human weaponry.

“I will tell you this, we now have created a military the likes of which we’ve never had before, in terms of equipment. The equipment that we have, the weapons that we have, and hopefully — hope to god we never have to use them,” Mr Trump said.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-appears-threaten-aliens-military-185734178.html

Seriously?

Aliens that traveled millions of light years to arrive on this tiny blue ball and they will be intimidated by some Orange blowhard and a few of our pop guns.

Apparently once again this idiot in the Whiten House fired his moth off before his brain was in gear (that is giving him the benefit of the doubt that he has half a brain)….

Our initial contact in the movies never ends well….and yet we spend millions trying to contact them…..and show them the way here….

Trump’s chest thumping reminds me of the old saying….”bringing a knife to a gun fight”….typical blowhard response to something he does not understand.

Maybe the planet should invest a little time in coming up with a response if and when we are contacted….instead of trying to dominate their neighbors.

Just a thought!

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

Closing Thought–16Jun20

The big news out of the Middle East was that Khasoggi’s sons pardoned his alleged murderers (wonder what that cost the Kingdom’s MbS?)…then his, Khasoggi, fiancee did not do the same…she is still pissed.

That was the BIG news from the region for the MSM….but I think this should have been the focus of reports…..

Saudi Arabia is pushing ahead to complete its first nuclear reactor, according to satellite images that have raised concern among arms-control experts because the kingdom has yet to implement international monitoring rules.

Satellite photos show the kingdom has built a roof over the facility before putting in place International Atomic Energy Agency regulations that allow inspectors early verification of the reactor’s design. Foregoing on-the-ground monitoring until after the research reactor is completed would be an unusual move normally discouraged under regulations to ensure civilian atomic programs aren’t used to make weapons.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-21/saudi-atomic-reactor-progresses-with-inspectors-still-frozen-out

This is not a good idea people.

We are talking about the homeland of the ideology and theology of terror groups like AQ and ISIS and Boko Haram……how long before these groups get their hands on material for a dirty bomb?

It is silly to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear power but allow a barbarous nation like KSA to acquire.

Plus they are not allowing the IAEA in to inspect….at least Iran was allowing them in (most times)…..

This is not going to end well for someone.

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

Closing Thought–07Feb20

All the events that have occurred in 2019…..nuke expansion from North Korea…..to the Iranian mash-up with the US…..to the walking away from the very treaty that limits nuclear weapons…..so much in geopolitics points toward some unthinkable for Millennials….

In a poll taken 54% of them think a nulear war is coming in the next decade…..

A majority of the world’s millennials believe it’s more likely than not that a nuclear attack will occur in the next 10 years.

They’re not alone in their fear. The non-profit Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists recently moved its infamous Doomsday Clock to 100 seconds to midnight, signalling experts’ growing concern over Earth’s future.

The International Committee of the Red Cross surveyed 16,000 millennials between the ages of 20 and 35 in 16 countries.

“More than half of millennials — 54 percent — believe it is likely that a nuclear attack will occur in the next decade,” the Red Cross reported.

“The fear of a nuclear attack seems to be a trend,” Alex Ward noted at Vox. “The worldwide shudder is understandable. The chance of a nuclear conflict between the U.S. and North Korea isn’t entirely gone. India and Pakistan, two nuclear-armed enemies, could rekindle their decades-long squabble at any time. And the U.S. and Russia — the world’s foremost nuclear powers — have had warheads pointed at each other since the earliest days of the Cold War.”

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/54-percent-millennials-believe-nuclear-war-will-occur-next-decade-118406

The poll was taken internationally….and 54% of the world’s Millennials think that a nuke war is possible in the next decade.

I believe that we can blame the US for this fear……we have re-started the nukes race with the Russians.

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

North Korea At Year’s End

It seems that I may have told a fib when I said I would post only drafts for the rest of this year…..my bad.

This report has to be posted because of the implications for the coming year……..

We all know of the song and dance, the dog and pony show that Trump and Kim have given the world this year……well it has gotten more threatening as 2019 comes to an end….

The start of the year 2020—or, in North Korea, the year 109—is approaching and observers fear Kim Jong Un might be planning something big. According to North Korean state media, the dictator told a meeting of the ruling Workers’ Party Central Committee Sunday that North Korea needs to “take positive and offensive measures” to “fully ensure the sovereignty and security of the country, as required by the present situation,” the BBC reports. The AP notes that in the Korean-language report in state media, Kim’s words were given as “active and offensive measures.” The ominous-sounding “Christmas gift” Kim promised the US never materialized, but he has said the end of this year is the deadline for Washington to make major concessions in nuclear talks.

Analysts suspect Kim might use either the Central Committee meeting, which continues Monday, or his New Year’s Day address to announce that he has decided to end the moratorium on nuclear and long-range missile tests. “By ‘positive and offensive measures,’ they might mean highly provocative action against the United States and also South Korea,” Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul, tells Reuters. White House national security adviser Robert O’Brien said Sunday that the US has “many tools in its toolkit” to deal with a resumption of nuclear testing. “If Kim “takes that approach we’ll be extraordinarily disappointed and we’ll demonstrate that disappointment,” he said.

What does “extraordinarily disappointed” mean?

This continues to be based on weeks of speculation of a Christmas surprise coming out of North Korea, and several days after Christmas, with no signs of anything being done, US officials are still threatening North Korea in case anything ever happens.

O’Brien didn’t say what the US would actually do, but has “tools in its tool kit” to do something if they want to, and that they’ll want to in response to tests which, again, were only mentioned in North Korean state media offhand once, and then for weeks in US media as a foregone conclusion that they were going to happen.

For now, there is no reason to expect North Korea is on the verge of any sort of test, except for all the talking about it that the media has been doing. Now, with media frenzy being coupled with US threats, there are still no signs what North Korea’s plans are, if any.

What a way to begin a new year….with threats.

I Read, I Wrote, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

Iran And Enrichment

The media keeps the pressure up on Iran….it has jumped into the Neocon camp and dealing in false information……to illustrate their fanning the flames moment…..the headline was “Iran Thumbs It’s Nose At The Nuke Agreement”……

Iran is continuing to back away from its nuclear deal with world powers following US withdrawal over a year ago. On Tuesday, President Hassan Rouhani announced that uranium gas would be injected into centrifuges at the underground Fordo facility beginning Wednesday. A rep for the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran later said gas would be injected into 1,044 centrifuges with the goal to enrich uranium up to 4.5% concentration of U-235. The 2015 deal limits Iran to low-enriched uranium, with no more than 4% concentration. Iran actually agreed not to carry out enrichment at Fordo until 2031, per the BBC. “Trump’s complaint with the Iran accord was that key restrictions expired by 2030, but the net result of the recent announcements is that those restrictions are largely being thrown out now,” reports the New York Times.

Iran sees its move as a bargaining chip. It’s “reversible” if other signatories—the UK, France, Germany, China, and Russia—allow Iranian oil to be sold on foreign markets and relieve economic pressure from US sanctions imposed after Trump pulled out of the deal, Rouhani said. “Then we will stop feeding gas to the centrifuges.” He spoke a day after Iran announced it had doubled the number of advanced centrifuges at its larger Natanz facility, where enriched uranium is already being produced, per the Times. On Tuesday, the US State Department said Iran had “no credible reason to expand its uranium enrichment program, at the Fordo facility or elsewhere, other than a clear attempt at nuclear extortion.” Per the Times, “with the steps taken in recent weeks, Iran might be able to produce enough fuel for a single nuclear bomb in under a year.”

Please someone tell the world that none of thus would be news if Trump had not wanted to destroy a deal of the Obama administration……had nothing to do with the nuke thing but rather a popular Obama policy……it had to go.

Really?  No”credible reason”?  Maybe all the past war drum beating and threats from some slug in DC…..maybe they take threats seriously?

Iran is an oil exporting country…well it just got a shot to the arm…..

Iran has discovered a new oil field in the country’s south with over 50 billion barrels of crude, its president said Sunday, a find that could boost the country’s proven reserves by a third as it struggles to sell energy abroad over US sanctions. The announcement by Hassan Rouhani comes as Iran faces crushing American sanctions after the US pulled out of its nuclear deal last year. Rouhani said the field was located in Iran’s southern Khuzestan province, home to its crucial oil industry, reports the AP. Some 53 billion barrels would be added to Iran’s proven reserves of roughly 150 billion, he said. “I am telling the White House that in the days when you sanctioned the sale of Iranian oil and pressured our nation, the country’s dear workers and engineers were able to discover 53 billion barrels of oil in a big field,” Rouhani said.

Oil reserves refer to crude that’s economically feasible to extract. Figures can vary wildly by country due to differing standards, though it remains a yardstick of comparison among oil-producing nations. Iran currently has the world’s fourth-largest proven deposits of crude oil and the world’s second-largest deposits of natural gas. It shares a massive offshore field in the Persian Gulf with Qatar. The new oil field could become Iran’s second-largest field after one containing 65 billion barrels in Ahvaz. The field is 925 square miles, with the deposit some 260 feet deep, Rouhani said.

Just a thought

I Read, I Wrote, You Know

“Lego Ergo Scribo”

India-Pakistan Situation

The age old conflict between India and Pakistan over the Kashmir region of the Himalayas is getting hotter and hotter….keep in mind that both these countries have a nuclear capability…..that means they both have bombs in case that statement needed clarification.

Is this new edition of the Kashmiri conflict heading these two into a crisis?

Some think it is heading in that direction….

In August, Pakistani prime minister Imran Khan pledged that he would serve as an “ambassador” for the embattled people of Kashmir, who are besieged by close to a million Indian security forces. And on Friday, he did exactly that, using the world’s largest platform—the United Nations General Assembly— to voice their plight.

Khan excoriated Indian prime minister Narendra Modi and called on the world to prevent a potential “bloodbath” in the disputed territory, where for two months over nine hundred thousand Indian security personnel have imposed a curfew on the Muslim-majority populace. Thousands of civilians, along with hundreds of political leaders, have been arrested.

After Khan’s speech on Friday, Kashmiris took great risk to show their gratitude to the Pakistani leader, coming out on to the streets, setting off firecrackers, and calling for freedom from India. One Kashmiri man told Al Jazeera that he “felt solace” when Khan spoke, knowing that Kashmiris “are not alone.”

New Delhi’s annexation and siege of Kashmir will prove to be strategic blunders. Indian officials and the country’s compliant private media falsely claim that there is “normalcy” today in Kashmir. They also say that the region will see even greater development and investment tomorrow.

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/india-and-pakistan-are-headed-towards-crisis-over-kashmir-86071

In case anyone would like to hear the speech to the UN by Khan…then I am here to help..

But in case you do not have the time to watch…let me help out…..Khan basically called for a war over Kashmir…..

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan addressed the United Nations on Sept. 29 and threatened to change that. Mr. Khan took the 15 minutes of speaking time allotted him and went nearly an hour, using the entire speech to speak of “jihad” over Kashmir and rail against his Indian counterpart, Prime Minister Nehendra Modi

“Jihad” is not a word the world wants to hear from a man atop a self-described Islamic republic that owns more than 100 nuclear weapons. 

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2019/oct/3/prime-minister-khan-threatens-nuclear-jihad-over-k/

Then there are those that look into the possibility of some stupid setting off a nuke in this conflict and just what would such an act bring about?

The U.S. and other nuclear powers should rapidly stop nuclear proliferation, researchers at Rutgers University said Wednesday as they released a study showing that a nuclear war between India and Pakistan could kill 125 million people instantly before causing global mass starvation.

Published in the journal Science Advances, the new research shows that rapidly growing nuclear stockpiles in India and Pakistan, which are currently in conflict over Kashmir, could release 16 million to 35 million tons of soot, or black carbon, into the atmosphere if the two countries escalated their standoff into nuclear strikes by 2025.

“Such a war would threaten not only the locations where bombs might be targeted but the entire world,” said Alan Robock, co-author of the study and a professor of environmental sciences at Rutgers.

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2019/10/03/new-study-warns-india-pakistan-nuclear-war-could-kill-125-million-immediately-then

Nothing good will come from the use of nukes…and yet we are still stockpiling these weapons….India and Pakistan need to settle down and find mutual ground to avoid in stupidity.

I Read, I Wrote You Know

“Lego Ergo Scribo”

What Would Happen If The Nukes Came?

As a child of the Cold War we were confronted almost daily with the possibility of nuclear holocaust…even taught in our schools….our movies and TV shows were about the evils of such weapons use…..

An old evil is waiting…..waiting for its time to be unleashed on the world.

Both the US and Russia have walked away from the Cold War nuclear agreement, the INF, and the word is that both nations are already planning to expand their nuclear capabilities.

Not a good idea!

But the attitudes of the 2 leaders is that they must prepare for nuclear retaliation to gain a peace.

This is a silly notion that seems to be gaining popularity within the Trump White House.

Now what would actually happen if the two nations decided to nuke each other?

There is a wealth of opinions on this notion…the SciFi genre is full of the possible outcomes…..but are predictions even close to reality?

The simulations have been run, and it’s official: even today, a nuclear war between the US and Russia would plunge the planet into a nuclear winter, with clouds of soot and smoke covering the planet.

Globally, temperatures would plunge by around 9 Kelvin (9 degrees Celsius or 16 degrees Fahrenheit) on average, due to the lack of sunlight reaching ground level.

The new model matches one of the best existing models we have, published in 2007. Both reports predict a nuclear winter of several years, upwards of a 30 percent global reduction in precipitation over the first few months, and a cloud of smoke enveloping first the Northern Hemisphere, and then the Southern Hemisphere, too.

“Here we repeat the [2007 nuclear war scenario] using an alternative state-of‐the‐art modern climate model run at higher resolution and with a more explicit simulation of stratospheric chemistry and aerosols,” write the researchers in their paper.

“The use of nuclear weapons in this manner by the United States and Russia would have disastrous consequences globally.”

https://www.sciencealert.com/the-best-simulation-we-have-says-the-threat-of-a-nuclear-winter-is-all-too-real

It is an old story that needs to be retold for a younger generation that has little idea what the results of the use of nukes would be…..plus to call out the thoughtless toads in government that have NO idea what they are doing or who they will effect with their nonsense…..

Be Smart!

Learn Stuff!

“Lego ergo Scribo”

Nukes For China

We have heard all the spurious arguments for the nuke policies for Iran and North Korea……but what about a strategy for a nuclear power and one of our biggest opponents? China.

A diverse range of external stimuli, including technological trends and geopolitical shifts, is leading the strategic community of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to reconsider existing nuclear policy, strategy, and operations. According to Chinese open sources, U.S. global conventional precision strike systems, U.S. missile defenses, and India’s nuclear weapons modernization, among other threats, could shake the PRC’s faith in longstanding nuclear doctrine and posture. The 2013 Science of Military Strategy confirms that “the nuclear security circumstances facing China in overall terms are trending toward complexity.”   In response to such challenges, some Chinese analysts have proposed loosening the no-first-use policy and undertaking quantitative and qualitative improvements to China’s nuclear forces.

A departure from enduring nuclear policy and strategy may also reflect China’s growing power and sense of purpose as it seeks to reshape its surroundings and accelerate the erosion of the U.S. position in the Western Pacific. Indeed, Chinese analysts are exploring Cold War history in Europe, from which they may be drawing lessons about the vulnerabilities of U.S. extended deterrence in Asia. While it remains unclear how and to what extent Chinese nuclear strategy will advance Beijing’s expanding ambitions, the internal debates suggest that China may be increasingly inclined to adopt a more coercive nuclear strategy.

https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2019/07/17/chinese_nuclear_weapons_strategyleaning_towards_a_more_proactive_posture_part_ii_external_drivers_of_potential_changetechnical-military_developments_and_perceptions_of_credibility.html

China continues to confront the US and its Asian allies on many fronts and yet the president is concerned over a country that is not yet a nuclear power…..where is the sanity there?

I believe you ignore China’s nukes at your own peril.

Just Nuke It!

The US is concerned with the nukes in development by nations like North Korea and Iran…..and yet they freely give them technology to nations that are the bane of human society like the Saudis….

So do we want nukes or not?

The report is that nuke warheads are on the decrease….

The number of warheads has decreased over the past year, even as countries continue to modernize their nuclear forces, according to an annual assessment of global nuclear arms.

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute released the SIPRI Yearbook 2019 on the current state of armaments, disarmament and international security.

The report found that 13,865 warheads in existence at the start of 2019 were owned by nine nations: the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, Israel and North Korea.

The year before hosted an arsenal of 14,465 warheads.

https://www.defensenews.com/global/2019/06/16/heres-how-many-nuclear-warheads-exist-and-which-countries-own-them/

All in all this is good news right?

But rest of the story…..

The Pentagon’s inability to win America’s recent wars in any convincing way may be about to become a much bigger problem than anyone realized, as experts express major concerns about a new policy doctrine adopted by the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

US struggles with conventional warfare, despite massively outspending everyone else, and they are hoping to turn that around by using nuclear weapons in America’s assorted conflicts, seeing nuclear war as creating “conditions for decisive results and the restoration of strategic stability.”

This Nuclear Operations document was published online by the Pentagon briefly last week, but was subsequently removed, and approved by the Joint Chiefs, with officials saying it is “for official use only” now.

Experts see it as a substantial change in US military policy, and particularly nuclear war policy. They say in particular this document does not focus on nuclear deterrence, but rather on US nuclear first-strikes as a war-fighting doctrine. That they see nuclear strikes as a potential cure-all is particularly troubling.

It is not clear if it is directly related to the low-yield nuclear weapons whose funding is a topic of major debate in Congress. Some in Congress were concerned that creating more low-yield nuclear arms would make their use a lower-threshold issue.

Though more usable nukes would clearly fit nicely with the Pentagon’s doctrine of using nukes more, it’s not clear that the doctrine is dependent on having lower-yield options, or if the US will just nuke with whatever they’ve got.

(antiwar.com)

Sorry but this type of double standard is typical for American thinking……and foreign policy.

So are the warheads decreasing or are they on the rise?

The Pentagon publishes a report for nuclear stability……

The U.S. military appears to believe it can somehow prevail in a nuclear war, according to a Pentagon document that was briefly made public, and has plans for using atomic weapons in “small and limited” capacities in order to create “strategic stability” for itself in the world.

The document, Nuclear Operations (pdf), describes the current political and military environment and the challenges faced by the Pentagon in strategizing how to most effectively deploy nuclear weapons in war. It was first reported on by the Federation of American Scientists (FAS), which downloaded and released the document on June 19.

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2019/06/20/pentagon-releases-then-deletes-document-detailing-use-nuclear-weapons-restore

Please make up our minds for us….or at least stick to at least one version of the truth…..