North Korea–A Year Of Chaos

With the brouhaha going on in DC over whether to impeach or not the news from around the world gets very little attention….like the situation on the Korean Peninsula.

So much has happened while you were otherwise diverted…..

More has happened in the last couple of weeks…..

The North and the South have been pushing agsainst one another….

Following South Korea opening fire on a North Korean merchant ship to chase it out of contested waters, North Korea has test fired its rocket launchers again on the east cost, firing two projectiles into the sea.

North Korea has repeatedly test fired their multiple rocket launcher system in recent months, though this is the first such test in November. South Korea condemned the test, saying they are stoking military tensions.

The test comes just a little over a month before the deadline between US and North Korea to get negotiations going again, and is likely to be seen as a reminder of that fact. New talks are seen as unlikely, with the US refusing to entertain new positions where North Korea gets anything in return for disarmament.

The US has so far not objected to the tests of rockets, with President Trump saying he doesn’t consider it a problem at all. North Korea has a massive amount of artillery to retaliate in the case of a US-South Korean attack, and has been trying to add rockets to that arsenal.


Then the news came out that North Korea will soon deploy a “super missile launcher”…..

North Korean state media reported on the most recent test-firing of its “super-large” multiple rocket launcher, saying it was the “final review.” Since it was apparently successful it is expected there will be a deployment soon.

South Korea expressed ‘strong regret’ over the test, but doesn’t appear to be intent on doing anything beyond that. President Trump has not commented, but in the past expressed ambivalence about tests of short-range rockets.

North Korea has established its deterrence to attack around massive amounts of artillery aimed at South Korea, and the rocket launchers will even further add to their ability to project strikes if a fight begins.

Japanese PM Abe Shinzo condemned the North Korean tests, leading North Korea to mock him as “the most stupid man ever known in history” who can’t tell the difference between rocket systems and a missile.

Abe was complaining about ballistic missile tests, which North Korea hasn’t done in some time. The North Korean statement warned that “Abe may seewhat a real ballistic missile is in the not distant future and under his nose.”

I have said many times that as a trained analyst I do not see whatever policies it is that Trump has in mind for the Korean Peninsula….all I see is chaos but just in case there is some sort of policy lurking just below the BS I think time is ran out for the implementation…..

North Korea has said the US has until the end of the year to come up with a new proposal to revive stalled diplomatic engagement between the two nations. US officials have similarly warned North Korea that time is running out, albeit without specific deadlines.

As a practical matter, these deadlines are all artificial and arbitrary, and the nations could engage whenever they want to. At the same time, many months have gone by without any progress, and the process is plainly growing stale for it.

It isn’t even that there are a slew of disagreements holding things up. Rather, there is a very specific issue: North Korea wants something in return for denuclearization, and the US just keeps demanding they denuclearize unconditionally, with hints they might get something in return eventually.

This had led to months of reiterating this position, boiling down to North Korea saying the US needs to offer a new approach, and no sign the US is even considering anything of the sort.

Again, the US could come forward with a proposal at any time, but the longer they ignore this one straightforward obstacle, the more it gives the appearance that the administration is content to let North Korea talks die on the vine, or would rather do that than make any concessions.


The end of the year is quickly approaching…..what will the New one bring us in the form of the situation on the Peninsula?

Japan braces for the possibility of a rocket attack……

the North insisted it was testing a “super-large multiple-rocket launcher”.

On Saturday, state media said Japan “may see what a real ballistic missile is in the not distant future”.

North Korea is banned from firing ballistic missiles under UN Security Council resolutions.

The chaos of 2019 will not be any better in 2020…..

“Imagine another two months of North Korean refusal to talk twinned with escalating insults directed at the president. Then an ICBM launch, with hints of more to come. At which point the president feels betrayed. Having personally embraced Kim, the president then personally feels the latter’s rejection. So Trump pens the opposite of a love letter to the Supreme Leader, with threats rather than concessions offered. To further increase the pressure, the North schedules a nuclear test. Democrats erupt with brutal criticism of the president, arguing that his weakness has triggered the latest crisis.”

I Read, I Wrote, You Know

“Lego Ergo Scribo”

4 thoughts on “North Korea–A Year Of Chaos

  1. Lots more sabre-rattling, in time for the run up to the 2020 election. I still can’t see anything happening that might provoke a war. At least not until after that election.
    Best wishes, Pete.

  2. New approach would be for us to take all put troops out if South Korea and drop all sanctions. Then see what happens.

    Not sure a fight between North and South Korea is our fight.

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