The Middle East has not been in the news lately….the midterms are an ever consuming story that just keeps on giving and the rest of the world just will have to wait…..
As an analyst on the Middle East I keep an eye on the news that could effect the US and its policies……
Since 1919 the Middle East has been ruled by authoritarian dictators and henchmen…..but these days those ways seem to be falling away from the norm…….
Two perfect storms have struck the Arab world in the past decade. In 2011, in what was at first optimistically called “the Arab Spring,” popular uprisings unseated autocrats across the region. Hopes ran high that these peaceful protest movements would usher in a new era of democracy in the Middle East. But except in Tunisia, they ended in turmoil or deadly civil wars. Then, in 2014, the region’s leaders were dealt another blow when the price of oil plummeted, threatening the basic model of governance on which their power rested. Low oil prices since have made it difficult for regimes to fund bloated budgets, buy off elites, and hold up long-postponed reforms. This is not a temporary aberration: it is unlikely that the price of oil will ever again rise to its pre-2014 levels.
On the surface, many Arab states appear to have weathered these two storms—however shakily. But there is more turbulence ahead. The shocks of 2011 and 2014 were just the first symptoms of a deeper transformation under way in the region: the fundamental bargain underpinning stability in Middle Eastern states is coming undone, and unless regional leaders move quickly to strike new bargains with their citizens, even larger storms will come.
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/middle-east/2018-10-15/next-arab-uprising
We hear such promises as ISIS has been defeated…..I do not agree with that assertion…..and the next flash point in the Middle East will be American ally, Jordan…….
Israel’s government has been rarely so surprised by a close ally. But on the 23rd anniversary of the assassination of former Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin, Jordan’s King Abdullah II reversed one of the Nobel Peace Prize winner’s most important achievements.
On Twitter, the monarch announced that he was annulling an attachment to the peace treaty that his father had signed with Rabin in 1994. The treaty concerns two enclaves that Jordan leased to Israel for agricultural use for 25 years. They were considered a prime example of Israeli-Arab cooperation. According to the agreement, Israelis were given free access to areas that were Jewish privately-owned and farmed before Israel’s foundation in 1948.
https://www.worldcrunch.com/world-affairs/the-next-middle-east-trouble-spot-jordan
And more on this prediction……https://nationalinterest.org/blog/middle-east-watch/why-jordan-next-isis-34792
A look into the future of the Middle East……
Regionalism and globalism are two of the leading phenomena in world politics. In the age of globalism, regionalism can be treated as a complementary and interacting phenomenon – or as a competing and conflicting one. Globalization creates powerful demands for regionalism that are not particular to one specific region, but to all regions. Considering the global-regional nexus as an unavoidably synchronized and complimentary set of processes concerning the Middle East, the chapter primarily draws attention to the state of regionalism in the Arab Middle East and its spillovers. With nationalist and protectionist trends on the rise with the election of Donald Trump in the US and the UK’s Brexit decision, it is perhaps not a popular time for commenting on the state of regionalism in the Middle East. A scarcity of regional cooperation in the area has also led interested commentators and scholars to label the Middle East as “the region without regionalism” (Aarts 1999, 91) or a space of weak regionalism.
https://www.e-ir.info/2018/10/12/globalism-regionalism-and-the-middle-east/
The Gulf region has the US picking sides in the many disputes….but with all said there is NO reason to pick sides by the US……
Iran and Saudi Arabia are each capable of keeping the other from establishing regional control.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin’s decision to back out of Saudi Arabia’s Future Investment Initiative, “Davos in the Desert,” is the first smart move the Trump administration has made in the aftermath of the killing of Saudi dissident Jamal Khashoggi. Trump promised a foreign policy guided by a strategy of “Principled Realism,” yet his administration’s handling of the crisis has been neither principled nor realist.
Instead of working to reassure the Saudis and sweep this issue under the rug, a more realist policy would take advantage of Riyadh’s mistake to stand up for our interests and values, bring balance back to our relationship, and get a better deal for America.
https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2018/10/its-unnecessary-pick-sides-gulf-america-should-stop/152265/
The problem, the biggest problem is that US is not capable of a diplomatic mission to the Middle East under the Trump presidency……
Finally, The Saudis have a hatred for Iran, Sunni vs Shia thing, but yet Iraq a majority Shia country and the Saudis are trying to make nice with the news government…..
Saudi Arabia appears to be pursuing a policy of pragmatic diplomacy with Iraq by aiming to build ties across the sectarian landscape. After more than 25 years of disengagement from Baghdad, Riyadh is now attempting to repair relations in order to build greater influence and counter Iran’s presence. Saudi Arabia’s regional strategy emphasizes curbing Iran’s influence, and it has recently embraced a series of bold foreign policy moves with Yemen, Qatar, and Lebanon. By contrast, the strategy in Iraq is largely consonant with the approach of gradual cooptation that Saudi Arabia has often adopted in the past.
Saudi Arabia has a number of political and economic tools to use in Iraq. Politically, it has sought to limit the influence of pro-Iranian groups by exploiting a growing intra-Shi`a rift, as many Shi`ite leaders and citizens are growing weary of Tehran’s overreach. Economically, it seeks to strengthen integration and build interdependencies with Baghdad, as well as benefit from the potential export market and trade that has been dominated by Iran and Turkey.
https://www.csis.org/analysis/saudi-arabias-new-approach-iraq
One question….why cannot the Saudis make nice with Iran….if they can in Iraq then why not Iran?
Jordan being a flashpoint will be interesting, as the UK government has close ties with that country. Jordan should also get more credit for accommodating so many refugees that have poured into that country from every area of conflict on its borders.
Best wishes, Pete.
I recall in the 70s when they had to deal with Palestinian refugees…was not a pretty picture….and ISIS has them in their sights…..not going to be pretty….chuq