What Could Happen In 4 Years?

Every now and then I do a “what if” scenario……a post about what might have happened if only one minor situation is changed…..

I found a “what if” in The Week magazine….that ask the question what will happen if Trump is super popular after his first 4 years…

Friday’s jobs report was more evidence of the kind of slow, plodding improvement we’ve grown accustomed to since the end of the Great Recession. But now that Donald Trump is about to become president, what happens if the slow, plodding improvement keeps up? The answer is a nightmare for Democrats: Come 2020, Trump could be very popular.

Political science suggests the economy is enormously important in predicting how an election will swing. In fact, the most stupidly simple models of Americans’ voting behavior — the ones that account for the economy, which party is incumbent in the White House, Americans’ natural tendency to change course, and little else — predicted the outcome of the 2016 election just fine. In fact, they were saying Trump was the likely victor months ago. It’s just no one believed them.

Source: What if Donald Trump is super popular in 4 years?

The way things are going right now it looks like he will not be popular in 4 years….but that news will be excused away as with everything he is doing…..

Like I said…this is someone else question and answer….so please do not shoot the messenger.



6 thoughts on “What Could Happen In 4 Years?

  1. He will not have to do too much to keep his popular vote. Tub-thumping about immigration, sabre-rattling on the world stage, and funding a few large building projects to create the appearance of lots of new jobs.
    Like many other countries (UK included) we should not be focusing on what the government is or is not doing, rather on whether or not the political opposition is effective enough to defeat them in four years. Over here, our opposition is in disarray, and unlikely to mount a credible challenge by the time of the next election. In the US, you have a similar situation. If they do not organise an effective opposition, with a strong candidate, you will likely get four more years of Trumpism after this term.
    Best wishes, Pete.

  2. What makes anyone think it matters? What happens in the world isn’t determined by politics; people only think it is. Human nature rules our world, in all its vicious ambiguity, & trying to predict the future is a pastime for fools. Plan for the worst, hope for the best, as Reacher would say, & that’s about all one can do….

    “I regard all governments as evil, and trying to reform them is largely a waste of time.” — H. L. Mencken

    I gotta stand with Henry on this one… politics is poopadoodle, and serves only to provide a distraction from reality for those who prefer delusion to what is true and real….

    gigoid, the dubious

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )


Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.