Month: October 2016

Demographics And The Vote

The election is sliding into the national thought process (finally)……we are bombarded daily with a wealth of polling and each one has little to do with the eventual outcome…..but it helps drive the conversation by the media……but not the people that will have to make a choice.

This time around the cultural wars are playing very small in the campaigns….nationalism is on the rise……so far the only divide that is making sense (at least to me) is the education of the voters……

It has been widely reported that Donald Trump’s strong appeal to elements of the white working class (especially males) endangers Republican support among women, minorities and the more-educated in the current presidential campaign. What has had less attention is that these shifts, if they persist after this election, endanger long-term Republican control of Congress and state legislatures.

The less-educated tend to vote less often: they are less reliable. That’s one of the most fundamental realities of voting behavior, not only in the United States, but across the world wherever free elections are held. Now, it may be that enthusiasm for Trump will elevate turnout among this sector in this election; we will know more about that in the weeks after November 8.

Source: Demography and Doom: Trump’s White Working Class Base – LA Progressive

This brings us to millennials (18-34)…….this demographic is not as predictable as the media would have us believe……

Polls indicate that Donald Trump is going to be crushed by Hillary Clinton this November when it comes to millennials, who could make up the nation’s largest voting bloc. But in reality, the GOP nominee may do much better with young voters than we have been led to believe.

A real-time Electoral College tracking map published by Mic shows Clinton dominating among millennials, with Trump ahead in only five states. Given that there are 69 millennials who are currently eligible to vote, this forecast appears devastating for the GOP.

But there is one critical factor that most of the polls and tracking maps are not taking into account: voter turnout.

In the 2008 and 2012 elections, President Obama mobilized minorities, women, and young people. There was even a record turnout of young voters in 2008, when a large majority of them voted for the then-Illinois senator.

Source: Trump and millennials: He might do better than we think | TheHill

Personally, I think this election will be closer than most anticipate……Trump will most likely lose….but he will fare better than the polls that the media loves to quote….keep in mind how wrong these polls were in 2012…..

Just saying!

The Right’s Made-up ‘Constitution’

It is election time and as regular as a morning dump the Right is busy using the Constitution as a political prop.

These are the same people that have this leather bound copy that they wipe out every chance they get when trying to make a point.

And yet they will rabidly support such issues as a limit on a freedom like religion or do all they can to limit the vote and let’s not forget their assault on individual freedoms…..

But with all that “concern” over our freedoms and the sanctity of the document they go out of the way to make shit up that they swear is part of this original document……

I recall reading a piece back in 2013 I believe that talks about this faux understanding of the US Constitution…..

America’s right-wingers talk fervently about protecting the Constitution but seem to have little understanding of what the Federalist framers were doing in creating a powerful central government,

The Cato Institute’s Handbook for Policy Makers says, “The American system was established to provide limited government.” The American Enterprise Institute states its purpose to “defend the principles” of “limited government.” The Heritage Foundation claims its mission is to promote “principles of limited government.” A multitude of Tea Party associations follow suit.

At first glance the concept of “limited government” seems like a no-brainer. Everybody believes the power of government should be limited somehow. All those who think totalitarianism is a good idea raise your hand. But there is one problem with the ultra-conservatives’ “limited government” program: it is wrong. It is not just a little bit wrong, but demonstrably false.

Source: The Right’s Made-up ‘Constitution’ – Consortiumnews

The Constitution has become a go to prop for a campaign along with veterans and fake concern about the future of this country.

The problem is that many will believe the lies because their knowledge of the Constitution is limited to a few parts of the Bill of Rights….the rest of the document is a complete mystery to them.

‘McCarthyism,’ Then and Now

Is it not about time for one of my more irritating historical perspectives?

What can I say…..hang on and learn something…..

Today it is a return of McCarthyism….or so it seems……

But first…..unless you are my age then the term means very little to you…..so a little help would be in order……

Mass hysteria has reared its ugly head for as long as humans have existed. Adolf Hitler worked enough people into a frenzy to justify the murder of millions of Jews. Jesus Christ, known by all as peaceful, if controversial, was brutally nailed to a cross because a few high-ranking officials felt threatened by him. Although one would hope that people would learn a lesson or two from the mistakes of the past, it seems that history, as the old cliché goes, is forever doomed to repeat itself.

Enter Senator Joseph McCarthy. While he may not have caused genocide or murdered a prophet, he was able to whip up hysteria in America in the early 1950s. McCarthy’s issue of choice? Communism. The American Heritage Dictionary defines McCarthyism as “the political practice of publicizing accusations of disloyalty or subversion with insufficient regard to evidence.”

There is a quick history lesson….but what does that have to do with today’s world?

In 2016 the specter of a strong Russia has returned to the world stage and as it was in the 50’s accusations are being thrown around like Mardi Gras beads…..

I’m often taken to task by some of my readers for characterizing the current anti-Russian hysteria as “McCarthyism.” After all, they say, Sen. Joseph McCarthy was right – there were, indeed, high-ranking individuals in the US government covertly sympathetic to the Soviet regime. And, yes, we now know that many of these were working directly for Soviet intelligence.

This was the predictable result of our wartime alliance with Russia: combined with the left-wing proclivities of the Roosevelt administration, and the “Popular Front” politics of the Communist Party USA during this period, it’s surprising that Soviet penetration of US government circles wasn’t more extensive than it turned out to be.

Source: ‘McCarthyism,’ Then and Now – Antiwar.com Original by — Antiwar.com

It appears that we have returned to the days of McCarthy and started blaming Russia for all the ills of the world…..again.

What Can Cambodia Teach The US?

How long has the US been fighting the Taleban in Afghanistan?  Don’t hurt yourself…..15+ years…..and by all reports it is not getting any better.

We have been fighting for a long time and our promise of destroying the opium production of the Taleban which is used to fund their ops has been a dismal failure…….

Opium production in Afghanistan rose by 43 per cent to 4,800 metric tons in 2016 compared with 2015 levels, according to the latest Afghanistan Opium Survey figures released today by the Afghan Ministry of Counter Narcotics and the UNODC. The area under opium poppy cultivation also increased to 201,000 hectares (ha) in 2016, a rise of 10 per cent compared with 183,000 ha in 2015.

The higher production can be explained by the larger area under opium poppy cultivation, but the most important driver is the higher opium yield per hectare. The largest yield increase occurred in the Western region where the average yield grew by 37 per cent and the Southern region, with a 36 per cent rise. Since these two regions account for 84 per cent of the total opium poppy cultivation in Afghanistan, the yield increases in these regions had a strong impact on the national potential opium production.

That is not the only problem……the allies are losing territory at an alarming pace….whole provinces have been lost to the Taleban.

But what can the US and its allies do to end this?

Cambodia in the 1970’s comes to mind….well at least to my mind….and that is what is important…….

In Afghanistan, as in Cambodia, bombing has hardened and radicalized the insurgents. Dean hoped that including elements of Prime Minister Marshal Lon Nol’s government, as well as religious leaders, in a coalition government would countervail the power of the Khmer communists and force them to temper their extremist ideology. The Taliban are a rural insurgency and incorporating them into a coalition government would expose them to huge changes that have taken place in Afghanistan’s cities in the past 15 years.

America’s continuing failure in Afghanistan, as in Cambodia five decades earlier, remains “the refusal to find an alternative to military solutions.”

Source: Learn From Cambodia and Reach a Settlement With the Taliban | World Report | US News

Sadly, a solution to our Afghanistan problem will not be on the table….for the winner of this election will just double down on the tactics used today……

There is an answer….but few want to pursue it.

The Battle For Mosul

There is a wealth of news these days but most of it is about the election in a few days……but we should be focusing on the war raging in Iraq…..why?

This could be a situation for the ages and not just a push to destroy an enemy…..

After the battle there will be a wealth of problems that could reignite into another shooting conflict……

The battle for Mosul is as much a political endeavor as its post-conflict status will be. The entire venture pivots on the trust between the allied factions: the Kurds, the Christians, the Yazidis, and the Iraqi army which has its own Shia-Sunni divisions—not to mention the Turks hovering on the horizon threatening to join the hunt. For the ground war to work the factions need to believe that they share a common goal for the long-term future of Mosul. That’s a tall order because the major players have divergent, even opposing, agendas.

Source: The Politics of the Battle for Mosul | World Affairs Journal

Let’s look forward in time….and predict that ISIS in Mosul will be defeated….what then?

The steady erosion of ISIL’s hold on its core territories in Iraq and Syria appears to herald the final success of the US-led coalition’s effort to overthrow the self-proclaimed caliphate.

As the attack onMosul intensifies and Syrian regime forces and Kurdish fighters close in on Raqqa, ISIL is mounting a desperate defence of the shrinking area over which it still holds sway. However, it is probably far too early to write off a regional threat that can still call on clandestine, international networks of followers to sustain its fanatical and uncompromising struggle against western countries and their regional allies.

Source: What lies ahead when ISIL is finally defeated? | The National

As the battle for Mosul lingers on…the allies are at the same time preparing for a push on the capital of ISIS….Raqaa, Syria…..

Before Iraqi forces and their US backers have set foot in Mosul, the US and its allies have begun preparations to imminently wrest the Syrian city of Raqqa from the Islamic State, a momentous decision aimed at destroying what is left of Isis’s self-declared caliphate.

The US defense chief, Ashton Carter, meeting in Paris with his counterparts in the anti-Isis coalition, vowed that Iraqi forces, Syrian Arab and Kurdish allies and US special operations troops and airpower could take away Isis’s Iraqi and Syrian capitals practically simultaneously.

“We’ve planned for that, and we have the resources for both,” Carter told NBC News early Wednesday, saying an attack on Raqqa would commence “in the next few weeks”.

Source: US and allies prepare to take Raqqa from Isis as battle for Mosul continues | US news | The Guardian

Looks like the plan is to try and catch ISIS off guard with their pants down fighting for survival in Mosul….but I question that decision……

Maybe a better idea would be to fight one battle front at a time….but still keep pressure on Raqaa…but concentrate on the elimination of Mosul first.

But let’s say we are successful and defeat ISIS in Mosul and then move on and do the same in Raqaa….will we then declare the official death of ISIS?

There may be a reason to not get too jubilant about these possible defeats.

Why so, Professor?

The US military warned today that the Islamic State continues to plot attacks against the West from its headquarters in Raqqa, Syria.

“We know this plot and planning is emanating from Raqqa,” Army Lt. Gen. Stephen Townsend said, according to the Associated Press.

Townsend didn’t provide any specifics, but the Islamic State has orchestrated multiple attacks from its safe havens in the past. American and European officials are constantly working to disrupt the group’s logistical support networks and uncover cells.

“We aren’t sure how pressing it is. We know they are up to something,” Townsend said, according to FoxNews.com. Townsend added that “we’ve got to get to Raqqa pretty soon” because of this anti-Western plotting.

Source: Islamic State continues to plot against the West, US military warns | The Long War Journal

As a reminder I turn your attention to an op-ed I wrote for Ace News Room…..

Source: Generation Jihad – In Saner Thought

Fore warned is fore armed!

The “Hawks” Are Circling

The GOP use to be the bastion of the Neocons or the “war hawks” if you like that title better……but this election has seen a shift in their allegiances….these despicable toads are saddling up to the “progressive” Clinton (I hate using the “P” word in association with Hillary….she is NO progressive!)

I have written many times that if she is elected then our lot will be cast for more and more conflicts in an expanding policy……she is the worse possible candidate to have with all the wars we are fighting……but that aside the “hawks” are drooling all over themselves with the hint that she will win……

Though the hawkish stance of Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton has been too often ignored this election season, new reporting on Thursday highlights how her presumed win in November will likely usher in a more aggressive, bipartisan foreign policy in the Middle East and beyond.

“The Republicans and Democrats who make up the foreign policy elite are laying the groundwork for a more assertive American foreign policy via a flurry of reports shaped by officials who are likely to play senior roles in a potential Clinton White House,” the Washington Post‘s White House correspondent Greg Jaffe reports.

Source: As Election Day Nears, Military Hawks Circle to Promote New Wave of War | Common Dreams | Breaking News & Views for the Progressive Community

(Thanx to my Twitter friend John Osalvo)

“Making America Great Again”

Ah!  Nothing like one of those campaign slogans that gets everyone’s juices flowing and gives one a slight orgasmic tingle, right?

Every election there is one that sticks out as the number one slogan of the season…..this one is right up there….the problem is that it is not that original at all….

The original was more along the lines of “American First” and it was one associated with Woodrow Wilson back in the early years of the 20th century…..and since I am known for my historical perspectives I thought I would share this bit of history with my readers….and thanx to the American Conservative did the work for me…..and I thank them…….

I long ago passed into and perhaps beyond the Elvis Costello “I used to be disgusted and now I try to be amused” attitude toward politics, but I suppose I’ll be in love with political Americana till the day I die.

My office is festooned with posters and pinbacks, including those bearing my two favorite slogans in American political history: “Come Home, America,” the plaintive motto of the patriotic prairie liberal George McGovern in 1972, and “America First,” which rings an oval photograph of that doughty foe of U.S. intervention in the world war … Woodrow Wilson. 

WTF? as the young ’uns say.

Source: The Meaning of ‘America First’ | The American Conservative

There is little that is new in this election……how sad is that?

Warning:  I will be taking on the old “American Exceptionalism” next….stay tuned for the fun….chuq

A New Social Contract Is In Order

A recent op-ed for Ace News Room……

In the last couple of years the rise of Far Right politicians and on-line entities have not overlooked the Middle East…… The rise of hardcore Right wing pursuits has made the world an i…

Source: A New Social Contract Is In Order

In the age of nationalistic feelings all over the globe which way will the Middle East go after the troubles are solved?  Will the Middle East return to the days of the hard line leaders like Nasser, Saddam, Assad or Qaddafi?

Media and Politics in the Age of Trump

A loyal friend of IST, the Ripening Wanderer, recently posted on what he thought about the media in the age of Trump…….

Source: The Media Covers Donald Trump In A Special Way | THE RIPENING WANDERER

After reading his post I thought about another post that I had read a couple of days ago and thought that it might fit with his thoughts on the media and politics…..

How profit undermines public service in the news media….

Donald Trump’s 2016 campaign will likely preoccupy future historians for years to come. While a number of factors contributed to his rise—including the growing power of social media, a latent racism and nativism within sections of the American public, and economic malaise resulting from Republican and Democratic administrations’ trade policies—the media deserve special scrutiny for their role in accelerating Trump’s candidacy, most obviously because they set agendas and frame political debates each election cycle.

News media’s constant coverage has boosted Trump’s visibility and helped popularize him, even in aggressive confrontations with the candidate. The benefit, however, is mutual.

As Trump attacks the press—mocking and feuding with journalists, threatening to change libel laws, holding campaign events where reporters are corralled and roughed up—he still serves the media well. That’s because the news organizations covering Trump, particularly television news, are reaping incredible amounts of money from their election coverage. Cable news organizations are expected to make a record-breaking $2.5 billion this election season.

Source: Media and Politics in the Age of Trump | Common Dreams | Breaking News & Views for the Progressive Community

The MSM is the leading actor in the dash to control the thought and the actions of the population….

The Sky’s The Limit

For about 6 years there has been a wealth of criticism of Obamacare….there has been about 50 attempts to end it….all failed….and a relentless drumming of “repeal and replace”….the problem is that NO one has any idea what to replace it with if it were ever repealed…..and in that lies the problem…..

Personally, I wanted a single payer….not only would it be efficient but it would also have been equal for all…..but instead we got a piece of crap that was basically written by the medical and drug industry….and thanx to them it will never work out to be a good program…

And now there is more news that will turn up the volume on “repeal and replace”…..the cost of the program…..

Premiums will go up sharply next year under President Obama’s health care law, and many consumers will be down to just one insurer, the administration confirmed Monday. That’s sure to stoke another ObamaCare controversy days before a presidential election, the AP reports. Before taxpayer-provided subsidies, premiums for a midlevel benchmark plan will increase an average of 25% across the 39 states served by the federally run online market, according to a report from the Department of Health and Human Services. Some states will see much bigger jumps, others less.

Major national carriers such as UnitedHealth Group, Humana, and Aetna scaled back their roles, meaning about one in five consumers will only have plans from a single insurer to pick from. Republicans pounced on the numbers as a warning that insurance markets created by the 2010 health overhaul are teetering toward a “death spiral.” “It’s over for ObamaCare,” Donald Trump proclaimed at a campaign rally Monday evening in Tampa, Fla., promising that his own plan would deliver “great health care at a fraction of the cost.” Administration officials, however, stress that subsidies provided under the law, which are designed to rise alongside premiums, will protect most customers.

Guess what?  You would not be having this problem with a single payer system…..just stating the obvious….

It will be up to the next president to handle this situation and personally I cannot see either candidate capable of finding an adequate solution……

So for the next 4 years there will be that endless mind numbing crap of “repeal and replace”…..something to look forward to in the coming months…..while the rest of society goes down the toilet…..lucky us.