Day: October 19, 2016

2016: The Song Remains The Same

In recent years the TV and the media has played a valuable service by predicting the winner of the election….this year has been anything but normal but with that said….the closer the election gets the more familiar the reports become….

A clear theme is emerging in political coverage, one that suggests a shift in thinking in DC from a probable Hillary Clinton victory to a certain Clinton victory, with the only question being how big it will be and whether the Democrats take over Congress. Examples:

  • “With Donald Trump’s path to victory so narrow that he appears to be looking beyond the election … the focus of the presidential race is shifting down the ballot. Democrats are making new investments in red states to help party candidates, while Republicans are focusing on salvaging their congressional majorities.” Real Clear Politics.
  • “Trump’s free fall is forcing American Action Network and its sister PAC, Congressional Leadership Fund, to also shell out millions in red-leaning districts that weren’t even in play until this month. Their suddenly urgent mission: Build a firewall to prevent a Democratic takeover of the House.” Politico.
  • “The pivot is a sign that Clinton is confident enough in her own prospects to start thinking about what comes after Nov. 8, when she’ll need a friendly Senate to approve her nominees, and would like to help Democrats make inroads in the House. Her advisers feel they’ve made Trump as radioactive as possible, so now is the time to use him against his colleagues.” NBC News.
  • “The maneuvering speaks to the unexpected tension facing Mrs. Clinton as she hurtles toward what aides increasingly believe will be a decisive victory—a pleasant problem, for certain, but one that has nonetheless scrambled the campaign’s strategy weeks before Election Day: Should Mrs. Clinton maximize her own margin, aiming to flip as many red states as possible to run up an electoral landslide, or prioritize the party’s congressional fortunes, redirecting funds and energy down the ballot?” The New York Times.
  • “With Clinton favored to win the presidential election in November, she and other allies are shifting their gaze to the Senate and House races that will determine whether she has a Congress that can help her advance her agenda or one that will be an intransigent roadblock, as Congress has been for President Barack Obama.” Newsweek.
  • “The GOP’s wisest course of action now, with Trump clearly headed for defeat, is to quietly concede the presidential race and spread the message that Republican voters must support their Congressional candidates to block the Clinton agenda. And with Clinton’s poor approval ratings, this is a message that could resonate with independents as well.” Cliston Brown at the Observer, whose publisher is Trump son-in-law Jared Kushner.
  • FiveThirtyEight puts Clinton’s current chance of victory at 88%.

Keep in mind that the election of 2012 was predicted to be a nail biter….it was anything but….Romney had his ass handed to him by Obama…..

Just a reminder before you believe everything you read or hear……

“Trump News Network”

There has been lots of verbiage on the treatment Trump is getting in the media….most of his supporters feel they are being unduly targeted for their support…..I can see where they would be feeling thus……I have some stuff uttered on the news that I do not think needs to be said….that is until there is concrete proof.

This brings me to a loyal reader of IST, The Ripening Wanderer, while we may not always agree I cherish his input.  He recently wrote a post that called for a possible “Trump News Network” and I quote:  “I think it is high time for Americans to be able to turn on their radios and their TVs and go to the “Trump News Network.”

Source: THE RIPENING WANDERER | My Personal WordPress.Com Web Log (Blog)

And that is where I pick up this post…..he may very well get his desire…..

Donald Trump said last month he has zero interest in forming a media company, but a short conversation said to have taken place between his son-in-law and the head of an independent investment bank has generated new buzz around that rumor. Per Reuters, three sources “with knowledge of the matter” tell the Financial Times that Jared Kushner, husband to Ivanka Trump and publisher of the weekly New York Observer, met “informally” with LionTree Advisors CEO Aryeh Bourkoff sometime over the last two months to brainstorm about a possible Trump TV network. Vanity Fair notes Bourkoff was the driving force behind Verizon’s 2015 AOL buy and Charter Communications’ takeover of Time Warner Cable earlier this year. Not everyone is surprised at whispers of this new possible mine for Trump to plumb after the election is over, CNNMoney notes.

“Who could have possibly seen this one coming?” was the sarcastic tweet of GOP Sen. Ben Sasse about the possibility of a Trump network, which CNN points out would potentially take on Fox News from the right, and which CNN President Jeff Zucker has said is “harder to do than people think it is.” It’s also not terribly surprising Kushner may be the one putting out feelers for this type of deal, as he’s been instrumental in his father-in-law’s campaign and is a Bourkoff pal. Vanity Fair points out the concept isn’t so outlandish as “the wheels continue to come off” Trump’s campaign for the presidency and notes discussion about a “post-election media goldmine makes a whole lot more sense” than other things Trump’s done of late. Also in his favor: “He’s a billionaire entertainer who shines on reality shows and beauty-pageant stages and tabloid covers.” Neither Kushner nor Bourkoff have commented.

I was skeptical back when Trump announced his candidacy…I said then that he was only trying to build his brand…..even though he has come a long way since he announced I still feel that he is only trying to find a way to make some money off this experience.

Fear of a Rigged Election Is Not New

As the election grows closer Mr. Trump has revved up the rhetoric about a “rigged” election…….and his words are finding fertile ground among the voters…..

(Oh God another of his historical perspectives)

But is his rhetoric anything new?

What’s new is that Trump himself is leading the charge. But will that make a difference?

It’s getting harder to maintain any serious suspense about who will win the presidential election, so the focus has started shifting to the day after Election Day. Trump, trailing badly, has taken to preemptively declaring that if he loses, it will be because the game was rigged against him. A new Politico poll shows 41 percent of the voters, and 73 percent of Republicans, saying he may be right. So now the airwaves are full of fears about what could happen if Americans take those charges to heart. Here’s CNN, for instance: “His accusations alone, experts say, could inflict long-standing damage on the US political system itself by eroding trust in the probity of the electoral process.”

Source: The Fear of a Rigged Election Is Not New – Hit & Run : Reason.com

I am reminded of that Philly thing about the New Black Panther Party (have nothing to do with the original) and how that 80 second vid caught fire and was used to claim fraud all over…..it was bullshit……

But then I think ALL elections are rigged…….why else would we be so afraid of third parties?

Look at any third party candidate…..the media will go out of its way to lessen the impact that they could have on any given election.

What is there to be afraid of in a democracy?

If you were hoping for something different in this election….then sadly we will be horribly disappointed.

UN, A Paralyzed Institution

Not many Americans have anything nice to say about the UN……and most of the opinions are based on crap thinking…..I have written about what I see as wrong with the UN and its place in the world.

As an introduction here is my op-ed from a year ago……

Since I can remember conservs have hated the United Nations…….and they will go on and on about this failure or that……got me to thinking why do so many absolutely hate the UN?

I guess most of it is a monetary thing…….Best Answer:  Most Americans hate it, because we pay the majority of its bills, provide the bulk of its military power and yet are almost universally hated by the very people we try to help…….

Source: Why Hate The United Nations (UN)? – In Saner Thought

I have a friend in Russia that is a Middle East analyst like myself and she has written a great piece about the UN’s problems……

Maria Dubovikova, president of the International Middle Eastern Studies Club

A leading Russian political analyst specializing in Middle Eastern affairs has described the United Nations Security Council as a talk shop that has become a battleground where global powers indulge in mutual recriminations.

Speaking to Arab News from Moscow on Sunday, Maria Dubovikova, president of the International Middle Eastern Studies Club (IMESClub), said: “Saturday’s vote at the Security Council has shown that the Council is in total paralysis. It is totally outdated. It has become a playing field for global powers who are interested only in flexing their muscles. It is a place where mutual recriminations are exchanged. It has been reduced to being a place where countries fight only for their national interests.”

Source: Russian-Arab affairs analyst slams UN’s ‘total paralysis’ over Syria – The Muslim Times

She promotes the interests of Saudi Arabia…..a position that is not to my liking….but even though we disagree on this we agree on the UN and the fact that one country can paralyze the institution to the point of being ineffectual.

I have said many times….after 70 years it is time for NO one country with veto power in the Security Council…..you want the UN to work then eliminate that one power…

Ever Read Tolstoy?

Don’t fret this is not some post on Russian lit per se……although it does help me make a point on foreign policy…..you know that subject that the candidates want to avoid speaking on while on meets and greets.

Have you ever read the novel, War and Peace?  How about Anna Karenina?  Both were written by Russian Leo Tolstoy and as usual they are long winded and detailed……I bring this up because these days there seems to be a certain sector of our society that seems hell bent on a confrontation with Russia.

Tolstoy wrote about this…the rush to war….so to speak……

I recently read a piece that makes the comparison….an excellent piece and very thought provoking…..well at least to me……for I spend a lot of time researching conflicts….causes and effects……

Rushing to war – justified by half-truths and propaganda – is a story as old as written history and the topic of great novelists like Leo Tolstoy, whose Anna Karenina offers lessons for today’s stampede toward WWIII,

Russian literature is too important to be left to professors of Comp Lit or to Slavic Departments at our universities, as is so often the case with the novel that I propose to examine here, Leo Tolstoy’s, Anna Karenina. Great literature is great precisely because of its multi-layered construction and the timelessness of the issues and considerations that constitute its substance.

Like War and Peace, Karenina has been the subject of many films going back to 1911, running through the 1930s with two classic versions featuring the legendary Greta Garbo and right up to time present and the widely discussed version released in 2012.

The novel has a core triangle, the relations between the heroine, her unloved and unloving husband who is 20 years her senior, Alexei Alexandrovich Karenin, and her lover, Prince Alexei Vronsky, for whom she gives up everything but does not find happiness or inner peace, seeing instead that her only way out is suicide. It is about love and passion, about the basic building block of all societies, the family.

Source: Applying Tolstoy to Today’s Rush to War – Consortiumnews

The books need to be on your bucket list…they are well worth the time it takes to read them….again maybe that is just me.