Several years ago I was writing a white paper about the Caucasus region of Eastern Europe…..I was working a a linch pin point that could possibly start another major world war……

When I was in university I studied international relations especially war and conflict management…..and since my interests in war and its causes I have always looked for that linchpin that could cause the world to explode in an all out war …..a war to end all wars……

A couple of years ago I wrote a synopsis of a paper that I was working on about the linchpin theory….in my theory the South Caucuses would be the most likely region that could start this war of all wars……read for yourself…..

Source: Does War loom in the South Caucasus? – In Saner Thought

The Caucasus region is a relatively compact area centered on the Caucasus Mountains. The foothills to the north and some of the steppe connected to them form a northern border, while the southern border can be defined by the extent of the Armenian plateau. The Black Sea in the west and the Caspian Sea in the east form natural boundaries in those directions. It is a territory of immense ethnic, linguistic, and national diversity, and it is currently spread over the territory of four sovereign nations.

The region, formerly contained within the boundaries of the Soviet Union, is in the early twenty-first century spread over four nations: the Russian Federation to the north; and the three republics of the South Caucasus, also known as Transcaucasia: Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. The Russian part of this area is divided into several ethnic jurisdictions: Adygea, Karachay-Cherkessia, Kabardino-Balkaria, North Ossetia, Ingushetia, Chechnya, and Dagestan.

I bring all this up now is because the fighting and the violence in the Caucasus region is hit a low point….there are still lots of animosities there but the violence is down…..because of one reason……

Russia’s North Caucasus insurgency has gone relatively quiet, as Moscow crushed militants and many left to fight in Syria and Iraq. But longstanding grievances remain and the war may only have widened, as evidenced by the bombing of a Russian airliner in Egypt and the emergence of new groups swearing allegiance to the Islamic State in Russia itself.

Source: The North Caucasus Insurgency and Syria: An Exported Jihad? – International Crisis Group