Inkwell Institute

Middle East Desk

In the last week we have had what many think is some good news pertaining to Syria and its chemical weapons…..Russia has proposed a plan to eliminate the CWs and make all good in the Middle East and its conflicts…….personally, I scoff at the idea that this is good news……and now this is where you challenge my assumption…….

Let me explain……a recent UN study estimated that the amount of troops needed to isolate, transport and eliminate these CWs is 75,000……think about that for a moment….where will the UN pull that many troops with expertise in CWs?

Okay let us say that a deal is finalized…..what will bne the future of such a disarming?

As the world rallies around the idea of getting Syria to hand over its chemical weapons, weapons experts tell the New York Times there’s much more than a “here you go” involved. “It’s a gargantuan task for the inspectors to mothball production, install padlocks, inventory the bulk agent as well as the munitions,” says Amy Smithson, who warns that we should “beware” the “deceptively attractive” deal. And after managing to inspect a far-reaching web of factories, bunkers, and storage facilities (the Los Angeles Times notes that we’re aware of about 40 chemical sites), “a lot of it has to be destroyed—in a war zone,” says Smithson; that could take years. The LAT also reports there’s a “considerable risk” the chemicals could leak while being dismantled. And that process won’t just be difficult: It will almost certainly require boots on the ground. “You have to have layers of security” for the inspectors dispatched there, says a former UN weapons inspector. “We’re not talking about just putting someone at the gate.” One Pentagon study estimates some 75,000 troops would be required. And those soldiers may have to battle rebel forces, some of whom would like the weapons for themselves. “I suspect some casualties would be unavoidable,” says a former chemical warfare expert with the British army. There’s also the possibility that Assad won’t show his full hand. “I worry about that,” says a former UN weapons inspector. “How do you verify that all Syrian weapons are known and under control?”

Let’s say that after a time the weapons are identified and isolated….next will come the elimination……..Experts say that there are two options for disposing of neurotoxic agents such as sarin: relocate them to a neighboring country for gradual degradation, or destroy them on site. Either process would be lengthy and complicated.  But before all that can happen we need one characteristic……..”Chemical arms control requires a permissive environment,” said Dan Kaszeta, who has served as a chemical weapons specialist with the U.S. Army and Department of Defense and now runs the consultancy Strongpoint Security in London. “This is not a permissive environment.”

Let’s say we get a permissive environment from Assad…….will we have the same from the massive amount of rebel factions?  I personally, do not see the rebels giving any lee way to Assad and his troops….if not then the troops tasked with eliminating the CWs could be under fire daily and if so should prevent the elimination from going smoothly.

And just when all were optimistic……..

Last week, as the US prepared for military strikes, an elite Syrian military unit once again moved the Assad regime’s chemical stockpiles. Unit 450, an all-Alawite squad so secretive that even high-ranking military defectors aren’t aware of its existence, has been divvying up and dispersing its stockpiles for months, US and Middle Eastern officials tell the Wall Street Journal. Officials believe the regime’s 1,000 metric tons of chemical agents, once concentrated in a few large stores, are now scattered to as many as 50 locations across Syria.

“We know a lot less than we did six months ago about where the chemical weapons are,” one US official says. And even if the US did know all the locations, attacking Unit 450 “would be a pretty tricky affair because … if you attack them you may reduce the security of their weapons,” a former Defense Intelligence Agency member says. For the same reason, the US won’t share the location of stockpiles with the rebels. In other Syria news:

• John Kerry says his first day of talks with Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov was “constructive,” the New York Times reports. The sides remain divided on whether the UN resolution should have a military component.
• Kerry argued for that military component forcefully in lengthy remarks yesterday. Lavrov seemed taken aback. “I’m not prepared with the extended political statement,” he said. “Diplomacy likes silence.”
• One thing has already come out of the talks: The sides agreed to hold peace talks later this month in New York in the hopes of ending the war diplomatically, CNN reports.
• Bashar al-Assad, meanwhile, is feeling emboldened enough to make demands. Yesterday he said he’d only relinquish his chemical weapons if the US “ceases arms deliveries to terrorists,” meaning the rebels. Assad also suggested that the Russian plan could be used to drag things out. “It doesn’t mean that Syria will sign the documents, fulfill the obligations, and that’s it,” he said.

At what point will the world admit that this idea will not go as anticipated?  This will be another long drawn out intervention, of sorts…..and the people in the US have had enough of lengthy involvements in the Middle east…..

I question this whole scenario……as should the Prez and his cronies……