Day: February 4, 2011

What Could Be The Final Outcome?

Tunisia is still smoldering….Egypt is on fire…..the rest of the Middle East is tense…..should Mubarak go or should he stay?  Should the army jump into the fray?  What will happen at the end of the saga?

WaPo and Glenn Kessler gives us a look into the future (the possible future, that is)………

The Iranian outcome

Iran’s Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, like Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak today, was an anchor of U.S. power in the Middle East who maintained relations with Israel. He was socially progressive, with a largely secular approach. But when he was ousted in a popular revolution, a theocratic clique led by the long-exiled Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini seized power and smothered a movement originally led by students and moderates. Moreover, the outcome was deeply damaging to the United States, with Iran the major backer of anti-Israeli militants in the region.  (Not likely…there is NO one waiting to be the face of the revolution as was in Iran)

The Indonesian outcome

In 1998, President Suharto’s 32 years of authoritarian rule came to an end. He was another longtime U.S. ally whose departure was deeply feared in the White House. But in the end, the world’s most populous Muslim country made a messy and long transition to democracy – and remained a key partner of the United States.  (This one is more likely, as it is today…..but who knows for sure?)

The Romanian outcome

Romanian revolutionaries overthrew dictator Nicolae Ceausescu in 1989 – and killed him – but within months the military and Communist elite had engineered their survival, with the designated president, a former ally of Ceausescu’s, winning 85 percent of the vote in a May 1990 election

Egypt’s security services – army, paramilitary, National Guard and the like – are about 1 million strong. It is quite possible that the country’s ruling elite would slowly squeeze the life out of the opposition by making Mubarak a transitional figurehead and enacting a few cosmetic reforms that give the illusion of change. State control of the media would not be lifted, and elections would still be manipulated to ensure the election of a president beholden to the current power structure…….( This is the Middle East and the whole violent coup with the death of the leader is still quite possible…….the US may have a hand in preventing this….but then it will depend on how we handle any attempt to seize power)….

Like I said….this is the Middle East and anything is possible……there is someone waiting and hiding in the shadows and after today the culprit may be unmasked….who will it be?

Equality, Liberty And Brotherhood

Since all this began in Egypt there have been those pundits (names withheld to protect the morons) who keep pushing the Muslim Brotherhood as some sort of terrorist state in waiting…..thanx to the rhetoric of Mubarak who has painted them as such and along with those on the Right that are concerned with the group and even some respected fellows at the Council of Foreign relations keep pushing a point that is not accurate…..most of their concern is unfounded…..

Bruce Reidel writing in the Daily Beast……offers up a bit of history for those that refuse to see the forest for the trees……

The Muslim Brethren was founded in 1928 by Shaykh Hassan al Banna as an Islamic alternative to weak secular nationalist parties that failed to secure Egypt’s freedom from British colonialism after World War I. Banna preached a fundamentalist Islamism and advocated the creation of an Islamic Egypt, but he was also open to importing techniques of political organization and propaganda from Europe that rapidly made the Brotherhood a fixture in Egyptian politics. Branches of the Brotherhood grew across the Arab world. By World War 2, it became more violent in its opposition to the British and the British-dominated monarchy, sponsoring assassinations and mass violence. After the army seized power in 1952, it briefly flirted with supporting Gamal Abdel Nasser’s government but then moved into opposition. Nasser ruthlessly suppressed it Nasser and his successors, Anwar Sadat and Mubarak, have alternatively repressed and demonized the Brotherhood or tolerated it as an anti-communist and right-wing opposition. Technically illegal, it has an enormous social-welfare infrastructure that provides cheap education and health care.

The Egyptian Brotherhood renounced violence years ago, but its relative moderation has made it the target of extreme vilification by more radical Islamists.  Al Qaeda’s leaders, Osama bin Laden and Ayman Zawahiri, started their political lives affiliated with the Brotherhood but both have denounced it for decades as too soft and a cat’s paw of Mubarak and America.

It is understandable that we Americans need a good guy and a bad guy, like our old time westerns, but in this case…….the media is misinforming the public….but as has been said….”it is not up to the US”……..

Running Scared?

College of Political Knowledge

Subject:  International Studies

Yes…they are!

Tunisia was first…and then the big bang came from Egypt…..and for 10 days and counting anti-government protesters have been taking to the streets and recently the pro-government guys have also….the inevitable clashes….the blood, the violence and the injuries were something that we all thought would have come earlier……but it is here now and the people will have to decide if the efforts by Mubarak are enough to satisfy their lust for freedom…..

Mubarak said he will not seek another term….and that he will leave when this one is up…..and then he appointed a VP…something Egypt has NOT had in 30 years……and then that VP starts laying blame for the violence…..

“When there are demonstrations of this size, there will be foreigners who come and take advantage and they have an agenda to raise the energy of the protesters,” Vice President Omar Suleiman said……..

Only bad guys from the outside would do such dastardly things in Cairo…..(what a yawn)

The rest of the Middle East has been watching the drama unfold in Egypt…..and other leaders in the surrounding countries have taken the cue….and started the reform process……(funny how that works)….

Algeria……President Abdelaziz Bouteflika will lift a nearly 20-year-old state of emergency in the “very close future,” the state news agency announced Thursday. The move is one of several demanded by demonstrators in recent protests against the government, which imposed the emergency decree in a crackdown against Islamic political parties in 1992.

Jordan…….King Abdullah has acknowledged the reform process “has suffered from many shortcomings” and young Jordanians were frustrated by lack of opportunity. He has instructed his new government to re-examine the election law and urgently tackle corruption — but his appointment of former intelligence chief Marouf Al Bakhit as his new premier was also seen as an attempt to shore up support among Jordan’s tribes, the bedrock of loyalty to the monarchy.

Yemen……President Ali Abdullah Saleh, who has ruled Yemen since 1978, has attempted to quell growing discontent by announcing that he won’t seek re-election in 2013.   Saleh announced  that he would not seek a new term or install his son to replace him. He called on opponents to join in talks aimed at “a sustainable and reconcilable political agreement.”

Syria……President Bashar al-Assad took power in 2000 after the death of his father, who had ruled since 1971. In an interview published Monday in The Wall Street Journal, he said Middle Eastern leaders must “see the need of reform” before protests like those in Egypt and Tunisia break out, because by then, “it’s too late.”

Funny how quickly these long time leaders have an epiphany when they are looking down the barrel of history…huh?

How many would have made such proclamations if Tunisia and Egypt had not happened?

So, you bet your butt these people are running scared…..and a change is NOT looking too bad at this point in time……but are they serious?  Or is this just a typical move by despots to buy some time?  And how long will it be until the Saudis see the light?

Watch The Army!

Egypt is burning (literally and physically) no body has an idea of what will happen if this continues….will Mubarak survive?  Will the violence continue?  Who will step up and make the right decision?

The first day that Egypt went into the streets of Cairo, I said that if it was sustained then next would be Jourdan and possibly Syria….I was right!  (patting myself on the back…kudos all around)………now after 10 days and counting….the unknown factor in all this upheaval is….the Egyptian army…….the player to watch!

Why?  Easy!  They hold the ultimate power…….

Mubarak, the VP and the PM all have come from the military….but right now NO military commander has stepped up to insert himself into the fray……they are like the Brotherhood…they are waiting and watching…and eventually action will be taken……but in favor of whom?  Now there is the $64 question……

In my opinion…it will most likely be a junior officer……the Army needs the US and its cash….and any decision to intervene will be made from that point……..democracy is Not the only concern here…..

The West needs to keep in mind……No-one with any knowledge of Egypt can forget that it was a coalition of such officers that came together in the post-war Free Officers Movement that overthrew King Farouq  and led to the toppling of a succession of pro-British regimes.

Mubarak’s little speech on Tuesday was nothing more than a delaying tactic….eventually these people who are poor will have to return to their lives before the protests and then he (Mubarak) will have won his reprieve…..for now……but the Army can change the tone and complexion of the protests……..but only if there is a chance of success….no one is stupid!

All eyes turn to Cairo…and they wait…and they wait…and they wait……..