One of my annual predictions for the last couple of years is that Pakistan will have some internal problems that could change everything in the AfPak region…..and this year is No different and now there is a bit more info on the country….
Reuter’s as usual has a terrific breakdown……
What to watch:
— Whether the government can bring the MQM back on board. To achieve this, President Asif Ali Zardari may have to take decisive steps such as the dismissal of his close aide and Sindh province’s home minister, Zulfiqar Mirza, a vocal critic of the MQM, which dominates politics in Pakistan’s financial capital and biggest city Karachi. A deal may be possible given divisions between the MQM and the main opposition party, led by former prime minister Nawaz Sharif.
— Whether the prime minister quits. Differences between Zardari and Gilani have raised speculation that the prime minister is becoming vulnerable. Some analysts say Gilani may opt to resign instead of facing a confidence vote, which may encourage some of the disgruntled former allies to rejoin the government.
— Whether opposition opts for a no-confidence vote. With the MQM sitting the opposition, the government clearly loses its majority in the National Assembly. The opposition could now press ahead with a no-confidence vote against the prime minister in parliament. Much will depend on Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N). Sharif is one of Pakistan’s most popular politicians, but he does not enjoy good ties with most political parties and the chances of the opposition forming a new ruling alliance are slim. The ruling Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) may try to lure some of the other, smaller opposition parties into its fold to regain a majority, but that looks unlikely. Therefore, a call for early elections is likely.
— Pakistan’s latest political storm could further weigh on investment in a country that relies on an $11 billion IMF loan agreed in 2008 to help its fragile economy. It will also make it even harder to reach agreement on a new reformed general sales tax (RGST), a key condition for future IMF loan disbursements.
Last year the floods were a good chance for the Army to step in and rattle the government…..they missed the chance…..but will they miss yet another chance to regain power? Keep in mind the nukes….always a great thing to have to get your way, right?
American support for the Pakistan government (and, nominally at least, vice versa) was always going to push a large section of the more radical elements away from the “democratically” chosen administration.
What the West should be MOST worried about is the fact that the Pakistani military has NOT stepped in… if there is dissent or weakness within their ranks, then we can look forward (perhaps even later this year) to a Taliban run country with nukes – now THAT prospect should focus the tiny minds of the idiots in Washington (and London and the EU)…
Win Afghanistan and lose Pakistan at the same time – good swap – NOT!
Musharif has already said he would NOT rule out stepping into the political stage again…..I think he is waiting for the perfect time and it could be this year or even this month….
True. However, screw what’s said – let’s see if actions match the words!
The latest assassination may well prove to be the ingredient needed…..
All things are relative. In a country like Pakistan, Musharif is the nearest thing to the “benign dictator” we have discussed on occasions. At least he is secular and reasonably politically astute as well as something of a realist…
Did you see that the cop (one of his bodyguards) that shot this guy apparently said he was, “Angered by what the politician said…”? That’s a good democratic principle, isn’t it? NOT!
Maybe a military dictatorship is the only alternative once the lunatics have taken control of the asylum!
I think you are right……democracy is a wonderful thing but it is NOT for every country…..