Tag: Pakistani Army

Pakistan Is Lurking Around The Corner

One of my annual predictions for the last couple of years is that Pakistan will have some internal problems that could change everything in the AfPak region…..and this year is No different and now there is a bit more info on the country….

Reuter’s as usual has a terrific breakdown……

What to watch:

— Whether the government can bring the MQM back on board. To achieve this, President Asif Ali Zardari may have to take decisive steps such as the dismissal of his close aide and Sindh province’s home minister, Zulfiqar Mirza, a vocal critic of the MQM, which dominates politics in Pakistan’s financial capital and biggest city Karachi. A deal may be possible given divisions between the MQM and the main opposition party, led by former prime minister Nawaz Sharif.

— Whether the prime minister quits. Differences between Zardari and Gilani have raised speculation that the prime minister is becoming vulnerable. Some analysts say Gilani may opt to resign instead of facing a confidence vote, which may encourage some of the disgruntled former allies to rejoin the government.

— Whether opposition opts for a no-confidence vote. With the MQM sitting the opposition, the government clearly loses its majority in the National Assembly. The opposition could now press ahead with a no-confidence vote against the prime minister in parliament. Much will depend on Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N). Sharif is one of Pakistan’s most popular politicians, but he does not enjoy good ties with most political parties and the chances of the opposition forming a new ruling alliance are slim. The ruling Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) may try to lure some of the other, smaller opposition parties into its fold to regain a majority, but that looks unlikely. Therefore, a call for early elections is likely.

— Pakistan’s latest political storm could further weigh on investment in a country that relies on an $11 billion IMF loan agreed in 2008 to help its fragile economy. It will also make it even harder to reach agreement on a new reformed general sales tax (RGST), a key condition for future IMF loan disbursements.

Last year the floods were a good chance for the Army to step in and rattle the government…..they missed the chance…..but will they miss yet another chance to regain power?  Keep in mind the nukes….always a great thing to have to get your way, right?

Pakistan And The Future

College of Political Knowledge

International Studies Group

We have all seen the headlines of the floods that are inflicting Pakistan.  We all have heard the stories that the Pakistani intel maybe in bed with AQ.  We all have heard about the corruption in Pakistan.  We all have heard the concerns over the nukes that are stockpiled in Pakistan.  With all that what could the possible future be for Pakistan?

An excellent question to be asked and the answer is….the current flooding problem maybe predicting the future for Pakistan.  Why?

It is easy!  Things are not going well in Pakistan these days…..

Islamist terrorists may exploit the chaos and misery caused by the floods in Pakistan to gain new recruits, the country’s president warned Thursday — remarks echoed by a leading U.S. senator who said America would stand by its vital wartime ally during the crisis.The floods have affected 20 million people and about one-fifth of Pakistan’s territory, straining its civilian government as it also struggles against al-Qaida and Taliban violence. Aid groups and the United Nations have complained that foreign donors have not been quick or generous enough given the scale of the disaster.

That is what people are fearing….along with another problem…..

Pakistani officials have reported that about 800,000 to 900,000 homes have been destroyed or made unliveable. The worst affected areas are in the north and northwest of the country—in the province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa [previously the North West Frontier Province]—which were the first to be hit. About 70 percent of bridges and roads have been destroyed and many towns and villages are cut off.

There are real fears in Islamabad, and in Washington, that the catastrophe will provoke a backlash against the government. Pakistani foreign minister Qureshi warned in New York on Thursday: “If we cannot deal with it [the flood emergency] there are chances of food riots leading to violence being exploited by people who are known”—a reference to Islamist organisations and insurgents.

I can smell a coup or something similar….the US and the rest of the West had better step up or the inevitable will occur…..either the Islamic terrorists or the Army will step in and fill the gaping whole that the government has left open.

I say that the country is ripe for a right wing coup and since the army is getting good press in the wake of the floods then the people will be behind them….and the whole democracy thing will have to wait for better conditions.