Turkey Vs Syria

Turkey has invaded Northern Syria last month on the pretense of going after the Kurds…..and ever since the Syrians have been trading barbs with Turkey and now the new is not good…..

Fighting in Syria’s Idlib Province has escalated substantially on Thursday, with Turkish forces attacking the Syrian military, and claiming to have killed over 50 soldiers, and Russia ultimately sending in warplanes to stop the fight, warning Turkey away from continued action.

Turkish officials said Syria had killed two Turkish soldiers who were in Idlib to “establish peace” and that their attack was in retaliation. President Erdogan has threatened strikes anywhere in Turkey over injuries to soldiers.

Turkish-backed rebels were involved in the attacks, and supported by Turkish artillery strikes. Syria ultimately requested Russian help, and a Russian Su-24 launched some strikes against attacking forces. Russia also contacted Turkey and told them to stop shelling.

While this particular flare-up is over, fighting looks to just be getting started. Russia called the situation a “worst case scenario,” and has demanded that Turkey stop backing terrorist groups in Idlib. Turkey has vowed they will not leave Idlib to Syria, and reiterated demands that Syria unconditionally cede the province to the mostly al-Qaeda-led rebels therein.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan says that a military operation in northwest Syria to expel Syrian forces from Idlib is only “a matter of time,” as Turkey continues to send more troops into the area.

Turkey has launched multiple attacks against the Syrian military in the past month, mostly to try to slow Syrian military advances against al-Qaeda. Erdogan has repeatedly demanded Syria abandon the Idlib Province to the Islamist groups, and now intends to try to directly force this.

Erdogan presented this new war as necessary because talks with Russia failed to get them to expel Syria from this Syrian province. Russia, however, is warning Turkey against trying to impose a military solution in northwest Syria.

Turkey is trying to present operations in support of al-Qaeda’s territorial control as a humanitarian necessity, and Syria’s fighting as endangering civilians.

(antiwar.com)

And since the US has troops in Syria watching the oil in Northern Syria….will they be drawn into any conflict between Syria and Turkey?

Will the Middle East become ground zero for yet another war?

The UN Charter’s preamble explained that “the scourge of war…twice in our lifetime has brought untold sorrow to mankind” — referring to two global wars.

Is a third one coming at a time when today’s super-weapons make earlier ones seem like toys by comparison? 

Will the curse of Middle East oil escalate new millennium wars? Oil is a strategic source of world power. Controlling it is a way to control nations.

Middle East countries have over half the world’s proved reserves. Regional resource wars aim to control them.

Preemptive US wars have nothing to do with protecting national security at a time when the nation’s only threats are invented, a phony pretext to smash one nation after another in the Middle East, Central Asia and North Africa, threatening others elsewhere.

The Middle East: Ground Zero for Possible Global War?

All I can say is….”here we go again”…….

I Read, I Write, You Know

Turkey continues to step up fighting in northern Syria, running up against Russian forces, and giving the appearance of an imminent war in the Idlib Province. Turkey’s willingness to escalate seems to have been picked up by US encouragement, and now Turkey seems to be leading the call to get the US dragged into this conflict as well.

US interests in the Idlib Province are virtually non-existent. Any US-backed rebels that were once there have been wiped out, or aligned to some Islamist group long ago. Arguments for intervention are that Idlib is becoming a flashpoint between Russia and Turkey.

Which is more Turkey’s problem than America’s though Turkey is suggesting that they are in talks with the US on sending Patriot missiles to Idlib to contest Russian warplanes, and are requesting US warplanes start patrolling the areas around Idlib.

“lego ergo scribo”

Turkey And The Rise Of The Ottomans?

Turkey has inserted itself into the situations and events in the Middle East not seen since the days of the Ottoman Empire…..

Their excursions into Syria….their embracing of Russia and its ambitions in the Middle East…..

I have tried to help my reader understand what I am writing about…..https://lobotero.com/2016/10/17/return-of-the-ottomans/

Nothing has changed in my opinion that Turkey is trying to seek control of the Middle East and NOrth Africa as it did in the past……

Turkey has even decided to put a military base in Libya….

With a recent military agreement between Turkey and Libya, and President Erdogan offering to intervene on behalf of the Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli, Turkey’s military is expected to set up shop in a base in Libya.

The exact location of the base is not clear, but is expected to serve as a “quick reaction force” to defend the GNA against Khalifa Hafter’s Libyan National Army (LNA) if requested.

Turkey’s initial interest in the deal was naval exploration for oil and gas. Erdogan also has ideological reasons to support the GNA, which has Muslim Brotherhood ties. Those ties are a big reason for Gulf Arab states to oppose them and back the LNA’s attempted coup.

Not everyone is on board. The opposition CHP in Turkey are objecting, asking what the purpose of Turkey’s involvement in Libya is, adding that they still aren’t clear why Turkey invaded northern Syria either.

(antiwar.com)

CIA operative, Gen Haftar, is seeking support for his move to control the country of Libya……and it appears as if Turkey is willing to help and in doing so would extend Turkish influence throughout the region they once controlled.

I Read, I Wrote, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

Greco-Turkic Drama

Is it possible that we have bitched and moaned about our endless wars that we may have missed another eruption that could very well draw the US into the fray?

I warned about this possibility about one year ago……https://lobotero.com/2018/12/28/greco-turkish-mindset/

And the sad thing is it looks like after some success in the peace talks it has all gone to shit…..armed conflict looms large….

Greece and Turkey have come closer to armed conflict after Turkey’s surprise delineation of an Exclusive Economic Zone with Libya, experts tell Al Jazeera.

The agreement, signed on November 27 and unveiled on Thursday, maps out a corridor of water stretching across the eastern Mediterranean between the coasts of Turkey and Libya, cutting across a swath that is also claimed by EU member Greece.

EEZs allow countries exclusive rights to exploit natural resources including mineral wealth.

Turkish energy minister Fatih Donmez has announced that, once the agreement is ratified by both sides, Turkish drillships will begin to search there for oil and gas.

Although the Hellenic Navy neither confirms nor denies it, two experts tell Al Jazeera that Greece has dispatched naval forces to the disputed area southeast of Crete.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/12/greece-turkey-closer-armed-conflict-experts-191205214345751.html

This bears watching basically because of the closeness of Erdogan and Trump….they seem to admire and support each other with some minor differences….but nothing major that I can see.

Will the US accept a war between the two nations?

I Read, I Wrote, You Know

“Lego Ergo Scribo”

Turkey And The End Of NATO

Turkey was in the news every hour for about a week and then something new took over the headlines……but Turkey is still doing its best to destroy NATO of which they are a member.

Seems to me that Turkey is trying to revive the Ottoman experience…..a subject that I wrote my observations about a couple of years ago……https://lobotero.com/2016/10/17/return-of-the-ottomans/

My intel tells me of a plan by Turkey to attack Armenia…..

Turkey planned a military operation against Armenia code-named ALTAY, according to a secret memo that reported missing pages from classified documents which detailed action plan.

The internal memo, submitted to the General Staff and a copy of which was obtained by Nordic Monitor, stated that the plan was still valid.

According to the memo, dated May 23, 2016 and presented to the General Staff by the Directorate of Operations, some of the pages that included air strike operations against Armenia called OĞUZTÜRK Hava Harekât Planı (OĞUZTÜRK Air Operation Plan) had gone missing. The discovery was made during a review of the plans at the Controlled Documents Bureau by the 4th Main Jet Base Command at Ankara’s Akıncı Air Base. A legal investigation was launched into the incident.

Turkey planned military action against Armenia

I made a bold statement that Turkey was out to dismantle NATO…..they would ignore Article 5 of the NATO charter…..by their stand on the Baltics….

Since their invasion of Syria, Turkey has been something of an outlier within NATO. Some nations are openly criticizing them for the attack, and some suggesting expelling Turkey from NATO outright, though no mechanism exists for doing that.

During this week’s meeting, Turkey’s President Erdogan looked to create a major potential obstacle to one major focus, the NATO military buildup in the Baltic States to “defend” against Russia. Erdogan threatened to block this plan entirely if the alliance doesn’t announce that they view the Syrian Kurds’ YPG as terrorists.

Erdogan insists he wants NATO’s help in fighting the Kurds, and has threatened to object to everything NATO does at the summit if they don’t agree to focus on the terrorists. This demand is almost certainly a non-starter, but if Erdogan follows through, it precludes any unanimous votes.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg appeared dismissive of the whole matter, saying that NATO’s entire alliance will respond militarily to any attacks of the Baltic countries.

DMs from Estonia and Lithuania, two of the Baltic states, were even more dismissive, calling the Turkish position a “second-tier problem” that will be easy to sort out.

(antiwar.com)

Now in my mind this is where NATO will fall apart…..if one member is attacked will the rest come to the rescue?

I think NOT!

Armenia is not a NATO member but it is a cooperating partner to several initiatives…..does that give Armenia protection from attack by a NATO member?

Good question.

I brought up Article 5 of the NATO Charter….so explain please…..

Article 5 is at the basis of a fundamental principle of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. It provides that if a NATO Ally is the victim of an armed attack, each and every other member of the Alliance will consider this act of violence as an armed attack against all members and will take the actions it deems necessary to assist the Ally attacked.

This is the principle of collective defense.

https://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/what-is-article-5-of-nato%E2%80%99s-founding-treaty

Granted it originally was intended for protection from the USSR…..is it still viable today?

https://www.history.com/news/nato-article-5-meaning-history-world-war-2

So many questions and in this world of chaos will the NATO Charter be tested?

I say it is only a matter of time…..for the original charter is obsolete in this new world we are creating.

I Read, I Wrote, You Know

“Lego Ergo Scribo”

What Did Turkey Know?

Remember when the US killed Osama and they questions started flying around about what did Pakistan know about it?

Did Pakistan know that Osama was hiding in plain sight?

Now a few in the intel service are starting to ask similar questions about Turkey and Baghdadi…..

As U.S. intelligence analysts comb through electronic and paper documents seized last weekend from the lair of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, one question is foremost on their minds: How was the Islamic State leader able to find refuge in a Syrian province secured by the Turkish military and its proxy forces?

Three U.S. national security officials told me that they want to know more about Turkey’s knowledge of Baghdadi’s whereabouts. One important task for the team now going through the material seized in the Baghdadi raid and another raid that killed organization’s spokesman, Abul Hassan al-Muhajir, is to map out the relationship between Turkey’s intelligence service and Islamic State.

Both men were hiding close to the Turkish border in Syrian territory. Muhajir was found in Jarabulus, a town in the Aleppo province patrolled by Turkish forces. Baghdadi was found in Idlib province, where there are numerous Turkish military checkpoints.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-11-01/baghdadi-raid-did-turkey-know-where-he-was-hiding-in-syria

For me do not care one way of the other….Baghdadi is dead and that is all that is important.

This looks like Bloomberg just trying to stir shit…..for it matters not what Turkey knew or did not know….Baghdadi is dead…..

His second in command is dead as well and the new leader is some dude from the the ranks that few knew of….the intel people might want to worry about this new guy more than what Turkey knew and when.

Baghdadi is DEAD….he took the cowards way out a blew himself up….Turkey had nothing to do with this event….our military people achieved their goal and took the bastard out.  PERIOD!

Turkey is trying to regain their primo spot in the elimination of ISIS after the US and the Kurds killed Baghdadi…..

Turkey announced that they have captured the older sister of the late ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. The woman, identified as 65-year-old Rasmiya Awad, is being described as having suspected affiliation with an extremist group.

Turkey captured Awad in a raid in north Syria’s town of Azaz, in the Turkish-controlled part of the Aleppo Province. Officials said she is believed to be an intelligence “gold mine.”

Little is known about Baghdadi’s sister, though Turkish officials say they believe what she knows about ISIS could significantly expand understanding of the group, and facilitate more raids.

This is likely an attempt for Turkey to score a big win in anti-ISIS operations, after the US killing of Baghdadi was attributed in many reports to the Kurdish YPG sharing intelligence about him.

(antiwar.com)

I Read, I Wrote, You Know

“Lego Ergo Scribo”

That Armenian Genocide Thing

For over 100 years the Armenians have been trying to get the world to hold the Turks responsible for the deaths of thousands of Armenians during and after World War One….

And for that century the Armenians have been trying to get the world to recognize the genocide…….The US in the past has ignored the genocide because Turkey was a valued customer and ally…..

On the eve of World War I, there were two million Armenians in the declining Ottoman Empire. By 1922, there were fewer than 400,000. The others — some 1.5 million — were killed in what historians consider a genocide.

As David Fromkin put it in his widely praised history of World War I and its aftermath, “A Peace to End All Peace”: “Rape and beating were commonplace. Those who were not killed at once were driven through mountains and deserts without food, drink or shelter. Hundreds of thousands of Armenians eventually succumbed or were killed .”

The man who invented the word “genocide”— Raphael Lemkin, a lawyer of Polish-Jewish origin — was moved to investigate the attempt to eliminate an entire people by accounts of the massacres of Armenians. He did not, however, coin the word until 1943, applying it to Nazi Germany and the Jews in a book published a year later, “Axis Rule in Occupied Europe.”

https://archive.nytimes.com/www.nytimes.com/ref/timestopics/topics_armeniangenocide.html

Now that the Turks are on the new “shit list” it is time for the US to step up….

The U.S. House of Representatives voted overwhelmingly on Tuesday to recognize the mass killings of Armenians a century ago as a genocide, a symbolic but historic vote instantly denounced by Turkey.

The Democratic-controlled House voted 405-11 in favor of a resolution asserting that it is U.S. policy to commemorate as genocide the killing of 1.5 million Armenians by the Ottoman Empire from 1915 to 1923. The Ottoman Empire was centered in present-day Turkey.

The vote marked the first time in 35 years that such legislation was considered in the full House, underscoring widespread frustration in Congress with the Turkish government, from both Democrats and President Donald Trump’s fellow Republicans.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-turkey-armenia/u-s-house-recognizes-armenian-genocide-backs-turkey-sanctions-idUSKBN1X82LY

This vote does little but to make the Congress appear to actually give a crap about what Turkey is doing in Syria.

A little history in the region and it involves the Kurds (remember them?  They are those people that the media is so concerned about)….those same people also participated in the genocide of the Armenians…..

Not widely known in the United States, but very well known in the region, is that among the most enthusiastic participants in the Armenian massacres of 1915 were Kurdish Muslim tribesmen, who largely inhabited the same regions of Anatolia as Armenian Christian peasants. This fact also goes unmentioned in the New York Times piece, but can be found by a casual perusal of Wikipedia, and the associated footnotes.

The Ottoman government of World War I (whose most important leaders, such as Kemal Pasha and Enver Pasha, were actually Albanians by ethnicity) considered Armenians, Greeks, and Assyrians as a potential fifth column for the Russians, and made every effort to encourage Muslim attacks on them. The best parallel is with anti-Jewish pogroms in Czarist Russia of that same era, which were encouraged by government officials but mostly carried out by local Polish and Ukrainian peasants.

Kurdish Participation in the Armenian Genocide

It is all a game.

Sadly this is NOT the way to carry our foreign policy……it is childish and wimpy.

Turkey is pissed!

Turkey’s President Erdogan declared that he “strongly condemns” the House resolutions, calling them a “slander against our country,” and “the biggest insult toward our nation.” Turkey also summoned the US Ambassador to warn of a breakdown in US-Turkey relations.

This could indeed have long-term ramifications, because with all these US Representatives now having publicly voted to recognize the genocide, it’s going to be really hard for a future US government to unrecognize it to make Turkey happy.

Will greed replace outrage?

I Read, I Wrote, You Know

“Lego Ergo Scribo”

Russia And Turkey And Syria

More events and more news from the Middle East…..

US troops are leaving Syria in the 5 days ultimatum……and Trump gives Turkey new sanctions…..Trump has told Turkey that he would destroy their economy if he was not playing nice…..all that was Bullsh*t!

Russia and Turkey have come to an agreement….after a couple of hours of meetings…..(read that again……Russia and Turkey…not the US)

While President Trump was very determined to insist that anything good happening in Syria was “created by us, the United States, and nobody else,” the evidence is pointing to substantial improvements in the regional situation coming more or less directly out of the new Russia-Turkey ceasefire deal.

In the hours after the Russia deal was signed, Turkey announced that they will push no further into Syrian territory. There would indeed be no need to, since Russia and Syria are going to expel Kurdish SDF forces from the area for them.

The US had tried to claim that all the SDF were already out of the region before the US ceasefire ended. Turkey disputed this and Russia seems to agree, promising to get them out in the 150 hour deal they reached. Russian DM Sergey Shogiu moved on to talk with the SDF head almost immediately after the announcement.

Trump is eager to spin the Turkish ceasefire as his accomplishment, even though Russia seems to be the one dotting all the is and crossing all the ts on Turkey’s demands.

The big difference seems to be Russia’s willingness to engage with Turkey on an equal footing about what could be offered, including joint patrols, as opposed to just unilaterally threatening to destroy their economy if things don’t work out.

(antiwar.com)

In case anyone is interested in the deal that Russia made with Turkey….

Below is the memorandum of understanding reached by the two countries, provided to Al Jazeera by the Turkish foreign ministry.

“President of the Republic of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan and President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin agreed on the following points:

1. The two sides reiterate their commitment to the preservation of the political unity and territorial integrity of Syria and the protection of national security of Turkey.

2. They emphasise their determination to combat terrorism in all forms and manifestations and to disrupt separatist agendas in the Syrian territory.

3. In this framework, the established status quo in the current Operation Peace Spring area covering Tel Abyad and [Ras al-Ain] with a depth of 32km (20 miles) will be preserved.

4. Both sides reaffirm the importance of the Adana Agreement. The Russian Federation will facilitate the implementation of the Adana Agreement in the current circumstances.

5. Starting 12.00 noon of October 23, 2019, Russian military police and Syrian border guards will enter the Syrian side of the Turkish-Syrian border, outside the area of Operation Peace Spring, to facilitate the removal of YPG elements and their weapons to the depth of 30km (19 miles) from the Turkish-Syrian border, which should be finalized in 150 hours. At that moment, joint Russian-Turkish patrols will start in the west and the east of the area of Operation Peace Spring with a depth of 10km (six miles), except Qamishli city.

6. All YPG elements and their weapons will be removed from Manbij and Tal Rifat.

7. Both sides will take necessary measures to prevent infiltrations of terrorist elements.

8. Joint efforts will be launched to facilitate the return of refugees in a safe and voluntary manner.

9. A joint monitoring and verification mechanism will be established to oversee and coordinate the implementation of this memorandum.

10. The two sides will continue to work to find a lasting political solution to the Syrian conflict within Astana Mechanism and will support the activity of the Constitutional Committee.”

Then Homeboy Trump takes credit for the deal…..

And then Turkey is rewarded for their deal with the Russians….sanctions lifted……

President Trump has announced that he is lifting all sanctions against Turkey for the time being, citing a “permanent” ceasefire between Turkey and the Kurds and the withdrawal of Kurds from the Turkish-occupied safe zone.

Trump credited the US for getting the Kurds out of the safe zone, and for everything else, conspicuously not mentioning the Russian deal with Turkey which was reached only the day before, and came after pointed US warnings to the Kurds not to talk with Russia.

Trump appeared to be quite conscious that this was a factor, declaring “this was an outcome created by us, the United States, and nobody else.” That’s his position, but it’s unlikely many will see it that way.

Trump said this validated his troop withdrawal from Syria, while also insisting that US troops are going to remain in Syria to protect oil reserves that were taken by the US during the war.

Trump also shrugged off his own declaration of a permanent ceasefire, saying “permanent” doesn’t mean much in that region. He also threatened new sanctions against Turkey if “something happens that we are not happy with.”

(antiwar.com)

Amusing that Russia’s name did not come up….go figure…..

Turkey got everything it ever wanted……sanctions lifted, Kurds moved out of their homes, the door left open for more killings, US gone from the region, I am sure I missed something…..

What a PUTZ!

I Read, I Wrote, You Know

“Lego Ergo Scribo”