Tag: Straight of Hormuz

A Lesson To Be Learned

Welcome to Cinco De Mayo…..

Most of my long time regulars know that I am fascinated with World War One….the carnage and the dumbass decision made by leaders….one of the biggest bone head decisions was Churchill’s attack on the Dardanelles at  Gallipoli…

A little history to help with the understanding of where I am going….

The ongoing deadlock on the Western Front led the Allies to formulate plans to attack Turkey, an ally of the Central Powers. If the Turkish capital of Constantinople (now Istanbul) was attacked via the Dardanelles Straits, it might relieve the pressure on Britain’s ally Russia. It could also open a supply route to Russia through the Black Sea and at best knock Turkey out of the war altogether.

Plans were made for a naval expedition to seize the Dardanelles in February and March 1915. Given their strategic importance, the straits were well defended by minefields and fortifications. There were also many Turkish gun emplacements on the Gallipoli peninsula to the north and the Asian coast to the south.

When the naval attacks failed to destroy these defences, it became clear that troops would have to seize the peninsula and destroy the guns and minefields. Only then could the Royal Navy force the straits and push on to Constantinople.

However, the naval operation had alerted the Ottomans to the danger of an attack in the region. Any Allied landing had now lost the crucial element of surprise.

https://www.nam.ac.uk/explore/gallipoli

Just a little background because Donny is still thumping his chest about sending in ground troops in and around the Straight of Hormuz….but will that be the disaster that Gallipoli was?

The Iran war reminds us small strategic moves can mushroom into expanding military commitments. The United States decided to blockade Iranian ports by controlling access to and from the vital Strait of Hormuz, as a response to Iran’s asserting control over it – which it had long threatened to do if attacked.

In its list of conditions to end the war, Iran is for the first time demanding recognition of its sovereignty over the waterway – considered the world’s most critical energy corridor. The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s key maritime choke points: strategic corridors where large volumes of global trade pass through extremely limited space.

A heavy price has often been paid for assuming this type of operation will be over quickly and easily.

America’s allies might wisely consider this history now – particularly as the April 25 anniversary of the disastrous Gallipoli campaign, which aimed to open the way to the Black Sea during World War I, approaches.

https://theconversation.com/gallipoli-has-4-lessons-for-the-strait-of-hormuz-crisis-280723

Just like Gallipoli the Straight is about the flow of trade and keeping the lanes open.

Gallipoli was a mind numbing disaster and I feel that the Straight and Kharg Island will meet the same fate.

Do we want such another failure on our all but stellar record of war?

I say screw it!  Time to end this stupid non-productive war and recall all our troops and ships and let diplomacy (if they remember what that is) do what it was designed top do.

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribol”

The Iranian Two Step

This is good stuff….as a student of international relations this is perfect example of how not to act.

WE have a ceasefire between the US and Iran (at at least I think we do) and on Friday Iran opened the Straight of Hormuz to shipping traffic….

Iran has reopened the Strait of Hormuz, and world markets were celebrating. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced on X that the waterway is once again open to commercial traffic, reports the Wall Street Journal. He said it will remain open at least through the duration of the 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. Oil prices plunged about 10% on the news, with benchmark Brent down to roughly $90 a barrel, per CNBC. The Dow surged more than 500 points, or 1.1%, and the S&P 500 also rose about 1%.

President Trump hailed the move on Truth Social. “Iran has just announced that the Strait of Iran is fully open and ready for full passage,” he wrote in all-caps. “Thank you!” However, he added that the separate US blockade on ships entering and exiting Iranian ports would remain in effect “until such time as our transaction with Iran is 100% complete.” He said reaching a final deal should “go very quickly” from here on out.

Then our clueless leader had to go on stage and chest thump about taking Iranian uranium in his clumsy way…….then on Saturday a 180….

Iran swiftly reversed course on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, reimposing restrictions on the critical waterway on Saturday after the US said it wouldn’t end its blockade of Iran-linked shipping. Iran’s joint military command said that “control of the Strait of Hormuz has returned to its previous state … under strict management and control of the armed forces,” per the AP. It warned that it would continue to block transit through the strait as long as the US blockade of Iranian ports remained in effect. The announcement came the morning after US President Trump said that even after Iran announced the strait’s reopening on Friday, the American blockade “will remain in full force” until Tehran reaches a deal with the US, including on its nuclear program.

The conflict over the choke point threatened to deepen the energy crisis roiling the global economy after oil prices began to fall again on Friday on hopes that the US and Iran were drawing closer to an agreement. Roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil passes through the strait, and further limits would squeeze already constrained supply, driving prices higher once again. Control over the strait has proven to be one Iran’s main points of leverage and prompted the US to deploy forces and initiate a blockade on Iranian ports as part of an effort to force Iran to accept a Pakistan-brokered ceasefire to end almost seven weeks of war that has raged between Israel, the US, and Iran.

Iran said it fully reopened the Strait of Hormuz to commercial vessels after a 10-day truce was announced between Israel and the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militant group in Lebanon. An end to Israel’s war with Hezbollah was a key demand of Iranian negotiators, who previously accused Israel of breaking last week’s ceasefire with strikes on Lebanon. Israel had said that deal didn’t cover Lebanon. But after Trump said the blockade would continue, top Iranian officials said his announcement violated last week’s ceasefire agreement between Iran and the US and warned the strait wouldn’t stay open if the US blockade remained in effect. Data firm Kpler said that movement through the strait remained confined to corridors requiring Iran’s approval. US forces have sent 21 ships back to Iran since the blockade began on Monday, US Central Command said on X.

Only an extremely stupid person does not know when to keep their idiot mouth shut.

The logical question now is what comes next?

Oil prices plunged and the stock market boomed on Friday after Iran and the US said the Strait of Hormuz was largely open to commercial traffic. An Iranian official suggested the move isn’t permanent as peace negotiations continue, though President Trump said on Truth Social that Iran promised to never close the strait again, and declared that the Hormuz “situation is over.” Related coverage:

  • Questions: Plenty of questions were unanswered about how freely ships will be able to move and even whether they may have to pay a toll to Iran, notes the Washington Post. Further complicating things was that the US was leaving its own blockade of Iranian ports in place. It may take awhile for the details to clarify, but “assuming this holds, then I think it’s great news,” Jerry Kalogiratos of the shipping company Capital Clean Energy Carriers tells the New York Times.
  • Uranium: One of the sticking points in talks has centered on Tehran’s stash of enriched uranium. On Friday, President Trump said in a Truth Social post that Iran had agreed to hand over its stockpile, though Tehran hasn’t confirmed. “We’re going to get ‌it together,” Trump told Reuters. “We’re going to go in with Iran, at a nice leisurely pace, and go down and start excavating with big machinery. … We’ll bring it back to the United States.”
  • Oil/gas prices: The cost of a barrel of Brent crude plunged 10% to under $90 a barrel, and that could translate into a quick reduction in gas prices, says GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan, per NBC News. “This could accelerate sending fuel prices lower starting this weekend with the national average likely falling below $4/gal to perhaps $3.65-$3.85,” he wrote. The average price was $4.09 Friday morning.
  • The talks: The Times reports that US and Iranian negotiators were finalizing a three-page memo that contained the broad strokes of a peace deal. It could be signed at a second round of talks in the coming days.

Now that Donny has fucked up this attempt at a ceasefire…..where will he go now?

For one he will start seizing ships….

The US military is preparing to board and seize Iran-linked commercial vessels on the high seas in the coming days, officials say, widening a maritime campaign that has so far centered on the Persian Gulf region. The move follows Iran’s assertion that it is again tightly controlling the Strait of Hormuz, coupled with reported attacks on commercial ships there. The Trump administration is using increased naval activity and economic leverage to pressure the Iranian government over its nuclear program and its control of oil exports, the Wall Street Journal reports.

And now he has made one of his ill-conceived sweeping statements…..

President Donald Trump has issued his latest threat to Iran and said that if officials fail to make a deal with the United States “the whole country is going to get blown up.”

The president also made threats Sunday morning to target civil infrastructure after it was reported that Iranian forces were refusing to allow ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz this weekend.

“We’re offering a very fair and reasonable DEAL, and I hope they take it because, if they don’t, the United States is going to knock out every single Power Plant, and every single Bridge, in Iran. NO MORE MR. NICE GUY!” Trump wrote. The posts appeared to be an effort to bring the regime to the table for 11th-hour talks before the U.S.-Iran ceasefire expires next week.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-iran-negotiations-infrastructure-bridges-b2960588.html

Iran ddoes not need nukes….it has the Straight of Hormuz.

Will someone give this twat a Big Mac and Diet Cola and tell him to go sit in the corner?

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”