More To Worry About

The conflict awaits the US troops on the border as the murderous horde marches on (that is sarcasm before some person thinks I meant that drivel)……

President Trump said Wednesday the number of military troops deployed to the US-Mexican border could reach 15,000—roughly double the number the Pentagon said it currently plans for a mission whose dimensions are shifting daily, per the AP. The Pentagon said “more than 7,000” troops were being sent to the Southwest border to support the Customs and Border Protection agents, and officials said that number could reach a maximum of about 8,000 under present plans.

That about equals the troop deployment we have an actual war zone, Afghanistan……

There may be more to worry about than some bare foot walkers…….While the president is using the troops as a political prop word has come out from China….

China’s President Xi Jinping ordered the military region responsible for monitoring the South China Sea and Taiwan to “assess the situation it is facing and boost its capabilities so it can handle any emergency” as tensions continue to mount over the future of the South China Sea and Taiwan, while diplomatic relations between Washington and Beijing hit rock bottom.

……

“It’s necessary to strengthen the mission … and concentrate preparations for fighting a war,” Xi said. “We need to take all complex situations into consideration and make emergency plans accordingly. “We have to step up combat readiness exercises, joint exercises and confrontational exercises to enhance servicemen’s capabilities and preparation for war” the president-for-life added.

https://theantimedia.com/china-military-prepare-war/

Maybe the military would be better used to counter the possibility of an actual threat.

Just saying.

Tensions Are High!

While everyone was laser focused on the drama around the Supreme Court….there was an incident in the South China Sea that may be just a fluke or the precursor of things to come……..

A tense encounter unfolded Sunday between US and Chinese vessels in the South China Sea. Per CNN, the American destroyer USS Decatur was aggressively approached by a Chinese warship while conducting what are called freedom of navigation operations in the Spratly Islands. in a statement, Capt. Charles Brown with the US Pacific Fleet said a Chinese Luyang destroyer approached the US vessel in an “unsafe and unprofessional” maneuver. According to CBS News, the Chinese vessel came with 45 yards of the Decatur, a dangerous proximity that forced the Decatur to maneuver away in order to prevent a collision.

The encounter is an extreme example of the recent tense US-China relations in the region. Just last week, China refused a request for the US Navy’s amphibious assault ship, the USS Wasp, to dock in Hong Kong next month. In spite of these and other setbacks, including his own canceled state visit to Beijing, Defense Secretary Jim Mattis said Monday that US-China relations are not worsening, per the AP. “There’s tension points in the relationship, but based on discussions coming out of New York last week and other things that we have coming up, we do not see it getting worse,” Mattis told reporters in Paris. “We’ll sort this out.” Back in the Pacific, Capt. Brown affirmed that US forces will continue to operate “anywhere international law allows.”

Is this an accident or is it something to do with our trade war with China?

Does anyone remember Tonkin incident?

WE should have known something was up…..

Defense Secretary James Mattis is downplaying the mounting tensions between the US and China, saying he doesn’t expect ties to worsen any further. The signs are, however, that the situation is still getting worse.

On Monday, China announced that they are cancelling the annual high-ranking US-China security meeting in Beijing. This was supposed to see Mattis meeting top Chinese military officers, but Mattis’ visit has been cancelled.

(antiwar.com)

Is South China Sea Lost?

The region in question has no less than 5 countries claiming the region for their own…..

It is a dispute over territory and sovereignty over ocean areas, and the Paracels and the Spratlys – two island chains claimed in whole or in part by a number of countries.

Beijing says its right to the area goes back centuries to when the Paracel and Spratly island chains were regarded as integral parts of the Chinese nation, and in 1947 it issued a map detailing its claims. It showed the two island groups falling entirely within its territory. Those claims are mirrored by Taiwan.

Vietnam hotly disputes China’s historical account, saying China had never claimed sovereignty over the islands before the 1940s. Vietnam says it has actively ruled over both the Paracels and the Spratlys since the 17th Century – and has the documents to prove it.

The other major claimant in the area is the Philippines, which invokes its geographical proximity to the Spratly Islands as the main basis of its claim for part of the grouping.

Both the Philippines and China lay claim to the Scarborough Shoal (known as Huangyan Island in China) – a little more than 100 miles (160km) from the Philippines and 500 miles from China.

Malaysia and Brunei also lay claim to territory in the South China Sea that they say falls within their economic exclusion zones, as defined by UNCLOS – the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.

Brunei does not claim any of the disputed islands, but Malaysia claims a small number of islands in the Spratlys.

(bbc.com)

Just to get my reader up to date on the regions problems……

  • In 1974 the Chinese seized the Paracels from Vietnam, killing more than 70 Vietnamese troops.
  • In 1988 the two sides clashed in the Spratlys, with Vietnam again coming off worse, losing about 60 sailors.
  • In early 2012, China and the Philippines engaged in a lengthy maritime stand-off, accusing each other of intrusions in the Scarborough Shoal.
  • Unverified claims that the Chinese navy sabotaged two Vietnamese exploration operations in late 2012 led to large anti-China protests on Vietnam’s streets.
  • In January 2013, Manila said it was taking China to a UN tribunal under the auspices of the UN Convention on the Laws of the Sea, to challenge its claims.
  • In May 2014, the introduction by China of a drilling rig into waters near the Paracel Islands led to multiple collisions between Vietnamese and Chinese ships.

Now that you are caught up…keep in mind that China has pretty much built islands and staffed them with military personnel….so now the question should be is the South China Sea lost?

US Defense Secretary Jim Mattis has spoken out against China’s strategy of ‘intimidation and coercion’ in the South China Sea, including the deployment of anti-ship missiles, surface-to-air missiles and electronic jammers, and, more recently, the landing of nuclear-capable bomber aircraft at Woody Island. There are, Mattis warned, ‘consequences to China ignoring the international community’.

But what consequences? Two successive US administrations—Barack Obama’s and now Donald Trump’s—have failed to push back credibly against China’s expansionism in the South China Sea, which has accelerated despite a 2016 international arbitral tribunal ruling invalidating its territorial claims there. Instead, the US has relied on rhetoric or symbolic actions.

https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/who-lost-the-south-china-sea/

This is a situation that most of DC these days want to avoid thinking about…for they have taken their eye off the deal and the situation is going to crap before their eyes.

The Bomber Has Landed!

As a foreign policy wonk that is analyzing conflicts around the world I do a lot of research and I found something this morning that needs attention.

So far today there has not been much news about the Chinese long range bomber that landed on China’s island in the South China Sea…..

The Chinese air force has landed long-range bombers for the first time on an airport in the South China Sea, a state newspaper said on Saturday, in a move likely to further fuel concerns about Beijing’s expansive claims over the disputed region.

The China Daily newspaper reported that the People’s Liberation Army Air Force conducted takeoff and landing training with the H-6K bomber in the South China Sea.

China is pitted against smaller neighbours in multiple disputes in the South China Sea over islands, coral reefs and lagoons in waters crucial for global commerce and rich in fish and potential oil and gas reserves.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/china/china-lands-bomber-on-south-china-sea-island-for-first-time/articleshow/64232552.cms

Not a big deal, right?

Well that may be an understatement for I also read a piece about what this event could mean for the future of the region…..

….on Friday, reports emerged that the Chinese People’s Liberation Army-Air Force (PLAAF) had, for the first time, landed an H-6K strategic bomber on one of the country’s South China Sea islands. China’s state-run People’s Daily shared footage of the bomber landing on an airstrip.

The island in question was Woody Island, China’s largest military outpost in the South China Sea. Woody Island sits in the Paracel Islands, but Chinese military activity there has foreshadowed possible moves in the seven artificial islands that Beijing also possesses in the Spratly group.

In addition to permanently stationing military personnel on Woody Island, China has deployed J-11 fighters, HQ-9 surface-to-air missiles, YJ-62 anti-ship cruise missiles, and other materiel there.

https://thediplomat.com/2018/05/south-china-sea-what-chinas-first-strategic-bomber-landing-on-woody-island-means/

This fell through the cracks with the hoopla of some royal nuptials….this region is becoming more contentious as the years go by……this needs attention and soon!

Closing Thought–25Jan18

Warnings Issued All Around!

The South China Sea is an active and popular spot…..China is flexing its muscle in the region…..most warnings are aimed at the US……

The Chinese government on Saturday accused the US of trespassing in its territorial waters when a US guided missile destroyer sailed near a disputed shoal in the South China Sea, the AP reports. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lu Kang said China would take “necessary measures” to protect its sovereignty after the USS Hopper sailed within 12 nautical miles of Scarborough Shoal on Wednesday evening without China’s permission. Scarborough is a tiny, uninhabited reef that China seized from the Philippines in 2012. Known in Chinese as Huangyan Island, it lies about 120 miles west of the main Philippine island of Luzon, and about 370 miles southeast of China.

Defense Ministry spokesperson Wu Qian said a Chinese missile frigate moved to identify and verify the US vessel and warned it to leave the area. “We hope that the US respects China’s sovereignty, respects the efforts by regional countries, and do not make trouble out of nothing,” Wu said in a statement. The South China Sea has crucial shipping lanes, rich fishing grounds, and potential oil, gas, and other mineral deposits. China claims virtually the entire South China Sea and has carried out extensive land reclamation work on many of the islands and reefs it claims. The US does not claim territory in the South China Sea but has declared it has a national interest in ensuring that the territorial disputes there are resolved peacefully in accordance with international law. The Navy regularly sails through the area to assert freedom of navigation.

This is a region that the common person needs to keep an eye on because it will get hot quickly and without a warning (no pun intended).

South China Sea And The World Of Tomorrow

Our new leader has a wealth of situations that could turn ugly at any moment……the Middle East, probably but the one that needs a close watch is that of China and the South China Sea situation……

A good analysis of this comes from the Cipher Brief……

Few security challenges are as vexing as the South China Sea. With multiple claimants and murky claims, the contours of the conflict can be difficult to grasp. In recent years, China has used ambiguity, asymmetry, and incrementalism to assert control over parts of the South China Sea. Meanwhile, the Obama administration attempted to draw red lines against “reclamation, construction, and militarization.” Yet, Beijing nevertheless reclaimed, constructed, and militarized all seven of the features it controls in the Spratly Islands.

Incoming Trump administration officials have indicated that they will adopt a more forceful approach to Chinese activities in the South China Sea. As the administration develops this new strategy, U.S. leaders must decide which Chinese actions they can deter at an acceptable level of risk. In so doing, they should evaluate eight potential South China Sea crisis scenarios:

Source: Red Lines and Red Carpets in the South China Sea | The Cipher Brief

But another reason this bears scrutiny is something that was reported recently……

In the harshest warning yet that China is actively contemplating a worst case scenario for its diplomatic relations with the US, a senior Chinese military official said that “a war within the president’s term’ or ‘war breaking out tonight’ are not just slogans, they are becoming a practical reality.The remarks, first reported by the SCMP, were published on the People’s Liberation Army website in response to the escalating rhetoric towards China from America’s new administration, and as Beijing braces itself for a possible deterioration in Sino-US ties, with a particular emphasis on maritime security.

The commentary written by an official at the national defence mobilisation department in the Central Military Commission – which has overall authority of China’s armed forces – also called for a US rebalancing of its strategy in Asia, military deployments in the East and South China Seas and the instillation of a missile defence system in South Korea were hot spots getting closer to ignition.

Source: War With US Becoming A “Practical Reality” Chinese Military Warns

Asia is looking like a new “hot spot”……North Korea and China seem to be the most threatening…..at least at this time……

Trump needs to take that damn ego and put it in a desk drawer and get down to work…Twitter will not solve this growing problem.