The prospect of one those damnable recessions may be on the horizon….even Donny concedes that it is a possibility…may be ot started sooner than expected….

he US stock market’s sell-off cut deeper on Monday as Wall Street questioned how much pain President Trump will let the economy endure endure through tariffs and other policies in order to get what he wants.

• The S&P 500 fell 155.64 points, or 2.7%, to 5,614.56.
• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 890.01 points, or 2.1%, to 41,911.71.
• The Nasdaq composite fell 727.90 points, or 4%, to 17,468.32.

It was the worst day yet in a stretch where the S&P 500 has swung more than 1%, up or down, seven time in eight days because of Trump’s on-and-off again tariffs. The worry is that the whipsaw moves will either hurt the economy directly or create enough uncertainty to drive US companies and consumers into an economy-freezing paralysis, the AP reports.

The S&P 500 is down roughly 9% from its all-time high set on Feb. 19. The economy has already given some signals of weakening, mostly through surveys showing increased pessimism. And a widely followed collection of real-time indicators compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta suggests the US economy may already be shrinking. Asked over the weekend whether he was expecting a recession in 2025, Trump said: “I hate to predict things like that. There is a period of transition because what we’re doing is very big. We’re bringing wealth back to America. That’s a big thing.” He then added, “It takes a little time. It takes a little time.”

Incase just in case this was usual (?) burp in the trading…..

President Trump would not rule out the possibility of a recession this year during an interview aired Sunday, saying it “takes a little time” for the economy and Americans to see the benefits of his new tariffs. He discounted the recent stock market losses, contending “you have to do what’s right” whether the markets like it or not, the Washington Post reports. Trump made the comments an interview for Fox News Channel’s Sunday Morning Futures. He also discounted concerns that businesses need clarity and before making decisions about investments.

Businesses always say they need clarity, Trump said, calling it “almost a sound bite.” He added that US tariffs “may go up. I don’t think we’ll go down.” Asked by host Maria Bartiromo about the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s forecast that US economic output will shrink 2.8% this quarter, after growing for almost three years, Trump did not push back. “I hate to predict things like that,” he said, per the AP. “There is a period of transition because what we’re doing is very big. We’re bringing wealth back to America.”

Is there any optimism that it can be avoided?

Wall Street started the new trading week in a foul mood on Monday, with the Dow tumbling about 500 points and the benchmark S&P 500 index down more than 2%. It’s a continuation of last week’s selloff blamed on tariff uncertainty, but Monday’s pain appears to have been worsened over the weekend by President Trump’s comments about a possible recession. In short, he declined to rule out the possibility in 2025, though his own commerce secretary disagreed. Related coverage:

• Bankers’ pessimism: The Wall Street Journal reports that big banks are growing more worried about a recession. JPMorgan Chase says the chances are now 40%, up from 30% at the year’s start. Goldman Sachs also raised the risk (from 15% to 20%), as did Morgan Stanley, which also revised downward its economic growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026.
• China’s move: The market’s wobbling comes as China’s retaliatory tariffs on a slew of American farm products took effect on Monday, reports the New York Times. Chicken, wheat, and corn were among the products affected. It’s another escalation of the trade fight between the US and Beijing, with China accusing Trump of disrupting “the security and stability of the global industrial and supply chains” through his tariffs.
• Tesla, other giants: The companies seen as the “Magnificent Seven” on Wall Street were having less-than-magnificent Mondays, notes CNBC. Leading the losses were Tesla (down 8%), Nvidia (5%), Meta (5%), and Alphabet (4%). In fact, the tech-focused Nasdaq index was down more than 3% in early trading. One big fear is that a trade war will drive up prices, making it less likely the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates.
• Effect on Musk: Tesla’s decline has hit the fortunes of Elon Musk, whose net worth is down $121 billion from its high of $464 billion in December, according to Forbes. His remaining $343 billion, however, still makes him the world’s richest person.

Sorry to be the bearer of bad news…..but you have what all are thinking so please prepare for the worse.

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