The Sub-Continent Smolders!

Since independence India and Pakistan have been at each other’s throat…it all began in 1947….https://indianexpress.com/article/research/here-is-a-history-of-india-pakistan-conflict/

We are now in the 21st century and not much has changed on the sub-continent…..the latest incident around the region known as Kashmir is igniting more hostilities…..

The militant attack in India-ruled Kashmir has once again put New Delhi and Islamabad on a war footing. Analysts at the Munich Security Conference say it is a setback to those who wish to see lasting peace in the region.

41 Indian paramilitary troops were killed on Thursday in a suicide bombing in the Pulwama district of India-administered Kashmir. The Pakistan-based militant group Jaish-e-Mohammed, which translates as “The Army of Mohammed,” claimed responsibility for the deadly attack, according to local media.

It was not the first time that the Islamist group allegedly perpetrated an attack in the Indian part of Kashmir, although the Thursday assault was the deadliest in the disputed region.

Read more: Fresh violence in Kashmir exposes the need for diplomacy

https://www.dw.com/en/why-kashmir-attack-could-spark-a-military-confrontation-in-south-asia/a-47541203

The Kashmir thing is a spillover from the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan……https://original.antiwar.com/Nauman_Sadiq/2019/02/11/kashmir-insurgency-the-spillover-of-the-soviet-afghan-jihad/

The fact that India is in control of the mountainous region known as Kashmir just keeps the rhetoric between the two countries escalated…..back and forth the accusations fly and the newest incident is NO different……https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-india-kashmir-attacks-pakistan/pakistan-rejects-links-to-attack-in-indian-controlled-kashmir-idUKKCN1Q32RS

Each time there is an incident the closer these two, India and Pakistan, come to another armed conflict…..you did know that these two have fought a couple of “wars”, right?

It is hard to imagine that Kashmir, one of the most beautiful places on earth and inhabited by a peaceful populace, could be the bone of contention between India and Pakistan. Unlike similar disputed territories around the world, the main reason that Kashmir is at the center of strife has more to do with political reasons than with religious ideology, despite the fact that has been a melting pot of different religious faiths.

https://www.thoughtco.com/history-of-the-kashmir-conflict-1770394

Why do the hate each other so much?

Then there is Kashmir……why do they fight?

Those videos did more in a few minutes than I could do in 1000 words…..

I watch this region because it is one of those that could ignite into a shooting war and the US would be drawn into……we DO NOT need another war…regardless of what the neocons and the M-IC want…..why is this important? They are both nuclear powers.

Watch and Learn!

Turn The Page!

Closing Thought–02Nov18

All this talk these days about extremist groups…they have been all over the news for several years now…….not just in the US nope even Pakistan is having a problem with extremist groups (go figure)….and the US has told Pakistan that it needs to ban such groups…..

The US has urged Pakistan to immediately enact a legislation that formally ban extremist religious groups, a media report said on Thursday.

The US’ suggestion on Wednesday followed a decision announced last week for ending a ban on Mumbai terror attack mastermind Hafiz Saeed’s Jamaat-ud-Dawa (JuD) and the Falah-i-Insaniyat Foundation (FIF), which Washington designates as terrorist groups, the Dawn report said.

The Pakistani media late last month had reported that the two outfits, that manage a large charity network with the help of thousands of volunteers, temporarily came off the list of banned outfits in Islamabad because the ordinance that proscribed them under a UN resolution had lapsed.

The Imran Khan government is working on a proposal to extend the ban.

https://www.khaleejtimes.com/international/americas/us-urges-pakistan-to-enact-law-banning-extremist-groups

Does anyone have an example of extreme arrogance?

Yep the US telling Pakistan to ban extremist groups…..and yet allows  the same types free rein in our government…..true the the Constitution protects these groups but telling another country what to do is just arrogant.

But then I am sure that it is different in some way…..I am just having a hard time finding the difference.

Send In The Replacement

How many of you have ever watch a Cricket match?  As an American it made little sense and when they stopped for tea I went nuts…..

Let’s talk about our long time “ally”….Pakistan.  For decades the elections were won by the same family election after election….the Bhutto family.  Usually their fates once in the leadership roll was to be assassinated…..not many happy endings.

Last week Pakistan held their latest election and to many people’s surprise a Cricketeer won the election……Imran Khan…..https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/pakistan-elections-imran-khan-180724223110697.html

Cricket star Imran Khan, who promised supporters a “new” Pakistan, won the country’s election but will have to seek out allies to form a coalition government, according to official results. Pakistan election officials Friday announced Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party won 109 of the 269 seats being contested in the National Assembly, the AP reports. The election Wednesday gave his nearest rival, Shahbaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League, 63 seats. Sharif, brother of jailed ex-prime minister Nawaz Sharif, has rejected the results, charging widespread fraud and manipulation.

Khan declared his victory on Thursday and dismissed the allegations of fraud, calling it the most transparent election in Pakistan’s history. He has promised to fight corruption and help millions of impoverished citizens. He says he also wants good relations with his neighbors and the United States, but also has leveled criticism against them. Once a celebrity playboy, Khan now embraces conservative Islamic stances and keeps company with radical clerics who often espouse a philosophy that frightens Pakistan’s minorities. He calls for an Islamic welfare state that provides progress and education for the poor.

Khan has also been a critic of US policy in Pakistan……

The US State Department issued a statement Friday criticizing the “flaws” in the process of Pakistan’s election earlier this week. The statement warned Pakistan’s election was at odds with its commitment to a “fully fair and transparent” vote.

The US largely had not discussed the Pakistani election before, and the fact that they are suddenly objecting to it comes almost immediately after the results showed a longtime critic of US policy, Imran Khan, had won the vote.

Khan has been a major critic of US policy in Afghanistan, and in particular the use of US drones against Pakistan’s tribal areas. He has said that, if he was in power, he would insist the US stop using drones in Pakistani airspace, and if they refused, would order the Pakistani Air Force to shoot the drones down.

(antiwar.com)

The election of Khan has many people wondering about the future and what to expect from his government….is it a triumph for democracy or will it signal chaos?

Further Reading:

https://mumbaimirror.indiatimes.com/mumbai/other/lahore-aristocrat-who-made-good/articleshow/65156652.cms

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-imran-khans-victory-a-boost-for-democracy-in-pakistan/

https://www.deccanchronicle.com/opinion/dc-comment/270718/imran-khans-triumph-set-to-trigger-chaos-in-pakistan.html

Once Khan gets his government together….events on the world stage may play into the hands that we Americans do not crave.  He will be pretty much a maverick (a growing trend) and may have a profound effect on our policies for Afghanistan…..and our foreign policy for the region.

Pakistan And The Frontier

We hear a lot about the Tribal areas of Pakistan…..some say it is a hot bed of terrorism and in the past the Pakistani military has had some ops in the area and the US has used drones to attack suspected terrorist hideouts…..

Some even go so far as to claim that the Tribal areas have been “tamed”……is it possible……

Maligned as a bastion of extremism and a top terrorist safe haven, Pakistan’s Federally Administrated Tribal Areas (FATA), along the country’s northwestern border with Afghanistan, have endured a significant transformation in the last few years. Between June 2014 and May 2016, the Pakistani army launched operation Zarb-e-Azb, literally translated as “swift and conclusive strike,” which focused on clearing terrorist organizations such as Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Punjabi Taliban, East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM), Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan and the Haqqani network from the seven administrative units that comprise FATA. According to Pakistani military officials, at the start of the operation, approximately one-third of the FATA had been under “miscreant control” with the North Waziristan district earmarked as the key terrorist stronghold.

https://www.thecipherbrief.com/article/asia/pakistan-truly-tamed-tribal-frontier

I have a few readers from Pakistan and I ask them to give my readers a clearer picture of the area if they would.  First hand info is more better than opinion piece from others.

Finally, have the Tribal Areas truly been tamed?

Pakistan Makes The News

Everyone in the field of international relations has an opinion about Pakistan…..most analyst realize that this country is doing what it has been doing for decades….playing both sides.

Trump has said that he will make Pakistan toe the line as an American ally…..but I do not think this will make them do so……..

President Trump, who slammed Pakistan in his first tweet of the year, has now made good on his threat to cut off aid. The administration says it’s suspending all security assistance to the country until it takes “decisive action” against Taliban and Haqqani militants on its territory targeting American troops over the border in Afghanistan, NBC News reports. “Despite a sustained high level of engagement by this administration with the government of Pakistan, the Taliban and the Haqqani network continue to find sanctuary in Pakistan,” State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert says. The department also accuses Pakistan of violating religious freedom, the AP reports.

Earlier this week, US Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley, saying Pakistan has “played a double game for years,” announced that the US was freezing $255 million in military aid that would have been used to buy equipment from American companies. Trump’s New Year’s Day tweet has brought Pakistan’s deeply divided government, opposition, and military together to oppose American policy, the Wall Street Journal reports. “The behavior of America is not the behavior of an ally or friend,” Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif said Thursday. “They have abandoned us at every difficult moment in our history.” Analysts warn that if relations deteriorate further, the US may have to stop using the country as a supply route for American forces in Afghanistan.

Will American arms dealers allow this slow down in profits linger?  This is the real problem…..

Keep in mind that Pakistan and India have been at each others throats since about 1947….will 2018 be any different from the past confrontations?

The history of India-Pakistan relations show that, every time an attempt is made to build relations, Pakistan’s army sabotages the peace talks by either escalating tensions at the Line of Control (LoC) or sending trained militants to India to launch attacks. On January 2, 2016, for example, a heavily armed group from Pakistan attacked the Indian Air Force base in Pathankot. This attack came immediately after Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s impromptu visit to Lahore to meet his counterpart, Nawaz Sharif. This was followed by another attack carried out on September 18, 2016, where four heavily armed militants, belonging to Jaish-e-Mohammed, managed to cross the porous border and launch a surprise attack on an army camp in Uri in Jammu and Kashmir, resulting in the deaths of 17 soldiers.

Another worrying recent development was the release of Hafiz Saeed, of the banned Jamaat-ud-dawa, one of the masterminds of the 2008 Mumbai terrorist attack, where over 160 lost their lives. Saeed was released by the Lahore High Court due to the failure of the government, probably under pressure from the army, to produce evidence in court.

However, in spite of the continued hostility, both India and Pakistan did keep the composite dialogue going through their national security advisers. Sadly, both countries are now experiencing a low point in their relations, with a virtual breakdown of the mechanism set afloat in Lahore to settle disputes through dialogue.

https://thediplomat.com/2017/12/has-the-pakistan-army-changed-its-india-policy/

Pakistan will need to make up the monetary shortfall…..where will it turn for funds it as become addicted to….where?

Waziristan?

Where the Hell is Waziristan?

Probably not many Americans…..but they should for it plays a large part in our endless War on Terror.

Waziristan– Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (formerly North-West Frontier Province), Pakistan, on the Afghanistan border. An extremely arid and mountainous region, it is divided into North Waziristan, inhabited by farming Wazir tribes, and South Waziristan, populated by seminomad Mahsuds and Waziris. The two tribes, both of Pathan descent, have constant blood feuds and supplement their meager incomes by banditry. They live in fortresslike mountain villages. A major source of income derives from the smuggling and processing of illicit drugs. Fertile valleys in parts of North Waziristan support wheat, corn, barley, and millet; livestock are also raised. In South Waziristan the hills are used for grazing, and forests on the higher slopes provide timber.

Home to many people that are not friends of the US or our troops…….

 

 

A report on the dangerous region……..

Last month, I had a rare opportunity to visit North Waziristan, a Pakistani tribal region blessed with rugged beauty, yet cursed with a long history of conflict. Long a haven for terrorists, both local and foreign, it’s been described as the most dangerous place on earth.

My visit was eye-opening — but it also raised some unsettling questions. There were clear signs that Pakistan has made progress in countering terrorism in North Waziristan, but also good reason to believe that a less positive picture lay beyond the small area I saw. Moreover, Pakistan’s efforts in the region cannot be designated an unqualified success, given its lack of decisive action against certain terror groups, particularly the Haqqani Network. I also was struck by how easily the progress made could be squandered, thanks to the enduring presence and appeal of extremism around the country. Ultimately, the North Waziristan counterterrorism campaign highlights the broader disagreements between the United States and Pakistan over the latter’s support for militants, a divide that has widened with the Trump administration’s threats to Pakistan over its ties to terrorists.

https://warontherocks.com/2017/12/progress-peril-north-waziristan/

The US has been running missions into this region for years…..mostly drone strikes….it would be in the US best interests to keep an eye on this region….This country should do more with this region besides drop bombs on it…..but that would mean someone that actually cares about national security and not just give it lip service.

Hostages Rescued!

More good news…..hostages held by Islamic extremist in Pakistan were rescued by the Pakistani army….the couple have been held for 5 years after their capture in Afghanistan…..

An American woman, her Canadian husband, and their three children born during five years in Taliban captivity are finally free. Caitlan Coleman and Josh Boyle, both in their 30s, and their three children were rescued by Pakistani security forces shortly after the family crossed into the country on Wednesday, Pakistan’s army says, per CNN. Coleman and Boyle were abducted by the Taliban-affiliated Haqqani Network while touring Afghanistan in 2012, when Coleman was seven months pregnant, reports Fox News. They were last seen with two children in hostage videos, believed to have been filmed in December 2016, in which the pair asked their respective governments to secure their release. “My children have seen their mother defiled,” said Coleman, who has since given birth to a third child.

The US government was tracking the family and alerted Pakistani officials when they crossed into Pakistan on Wednesday, reports Fox. Pakistani security forces then intervened. “All hostages were recovered safe and sound and are being repatriated to the country of their origin,” the army says. A US official tells NBC News the family is with US Embassy officials in Pakistan. President Trump appeared to hint at the rescue in Coleman’s home state of Pennsylvania on Wednesday, per ABC News. “Something happened today, where a country that totally disrespected us called with some very, very important news,” he said. “And one of my generals came in. They said, ‘You know, I have to tell you, a year ago they would’ve never done that.’ … This is a country that did not respect us. This is a country that respects us now.”

I have few thoughts…..this reminds me of an incident about 6 years ago when some contractors in Iraq went for a hike and wound up in Iran and were captured and charged with espionage.  I though back then….what makes these people decide to go to a region, in a war zone and with NO marked borders and go for a stroll?

Now these people….as the story goes they decided to go for a hike in an area that was known to be a hot bed of Taleban activity….again what part of this story makes sense?

Were these people just ignorant or was there another reason for these “incursions”?

Finally, Trump’s comments….they were more about him and his “supposed” policies not the intel that was given to the Pakistanis so they could rescue the couple and their children.  Again a platform so that he, Trump, can pat himself on the back.

Welcome home….have a burger and some fire and a pie a la mode……hopefully you may find some normalcy in your lives now.

The Mysterious Sub-Continent

India got its freedom from the UK in 1947 and almost from day one they have been in conflict with their neighbors.

First it was their problems with their neighbor Pakistan…the first India-Pakistan War was in 1947….then came the wars of 1965, 1971 and 1999….and to this day there are regular incidents between Pakistan and India over the Kashmir District in Northern India-Pakistan border region.

But those are not the conflicts that I want to go into….these were given only to show the amount of conflict that India is always finding itself immersed in……the conflict that is most pressing these days…..China-India situation…..

There head butting began in 1959 and has carried forward to this day….and it has become more fierce than in the past…..

In mid-June, a remote area called the Dolam plateau in the Himalayas where the boundaries of China, India and Bhutan meet made headlines when Indian and Chinese troops began a standoff over a road construction project. China conducted a live-fire exercise in the area, and there have been false reports of deaths. Diplomatic efforts are underway to de-escalate the situation, but still the risk of war has been on everyone’s mind.

The terrain and weather in the area, located in a region called Doklam, are anathema to war. And yet, almost exactly 55 years ago, China and India fought briefly over this and other contested border areas. So what is the strategic value of this seemingly obscure plateau? And would India and China really go to war again over it?

Source: Are China and India on the Road to War? – Geopolitics | Geopolitical Futures

What has the players up in arms this time?

Chinese forces are holding an increasingly large series of live-fire training drills in Tibet, reflecting soaring tensions with neighboring India, while Chinese state media outlets suggest the nation is gearing up for a possible “long-term confrontation” with India over the border region.

The tensions center on the border region of China, India, and Bhutan. China was trying to build a road in remote Dokola, when Indian ground troops streamed across the border to stop them. The construction has stopped but it has left scores of troops from both China and India in the remote area in a standoff, with the risk of the world’s two most populace nations warring over it.

(antiwar.com)

This may ultimately all be bluster, as a war between the two large nuclear powers ought to be unthinkable, particularly over this largely worthless chunk of mountainous terrain. Yet mutual unwillingness to be seen as backing down could quickly lead both sides toward further escalations, with a major regional conflict resulting.

Will A Threat Become Reality?

Out new prez has not even taking the office officially and he is looking at a couple of major situations…..I wrote about one of them this morning…Gambia and now it looks like their is more saber rattling coming from Pakistan over the region of Kashmir……

Pakistan’s Defence Minister has warned it will ‘eliminate India’ with nuclear weapons if the country ‘dares to impose war’.

His comments came as Pakistan blamed ‘cross-border fire’ from India for the death of two of its soldiers in the disputed region of Kashmir.

Fears are growing that the two old enemies may go to war again.

Defence Minister Khawaja Asif reportedly told Pakistani TV channel SAMAA on September 26: ‘We will destroy India if it dares to impose war on us. Pakistan army is fully prepared to answer any misadventure of India.

‘We have not made an atomic device to display in a showcase. If a such a situation arises we will use it and eliminate India.’

This could be some sort of macho chest thumping or it could be the precursor to a larger problem…..
There is N. Korea threatening to use nukes and now the Pakistanis…maybe we should take all this chest thumping seriously until found otherwise…..
Now would be the best time to get ahead of this situation….if it occurs the US will NO doubt be ass deep in it.

The Little War That Could–Part 2

While the world was debating the benefits of war……China is creeping!

Kashmir has been a bone of contention between India and Pakistan for years, even decades, to the point that they have fought several short lived wars over the region…….and more recently there has been a stand off between the two countries over possession of the region…….it is always a crucial conflict that the world needs to intervene since both countries have nuke weapon capability…….

But recently a new twist has been added to the conflict…..that twist is…….wait for it……… China.

Hundreds of Indian and Chinese troops have dug into positions on a high Himalayan plateau, leading India’s army chief to cancel a foreign trip and monitor a standoff that underscores deep differences between the Asian giants as they seek closer ties.

Military officials in New Delhi and Kashmir said on Tuesday that Chinese troops set up a camp about 3 km (2 miles) into territory claimed by India in the Chumar region of the Ladakh plateau more than a week ago.

The alleged incursion by Chinese troops into territory claimed by India dominated a visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping last week, overshadowing his pledges to invest $20 billion over five years and a bid to warm personal ties with new Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

The Indian government on Monday (September 22) cancelled the clearances of Chinese mediapersons coming to New Delhi for an interaction with Indian counterparts, after reports came about China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) soldiers pitching tents within the Indian territory.

India has deployed about 1,500 troops in the Chumar area and there are about 800 Chinese soldiers, an Indian government official said. The two sides are not in an eyeball-to-eyeball confrontation and are well separated from each other.
Small incursions are common across the Line of Actual Control between the nations, the de facto border that runs some 4,000 km (2,500 miles) across the Himalayas, but it is rare for either country to set up camp deep within disputed territory.

 

A situation that needs to be watched…….there are three (3) nuclear armed countries vying for control of a region……all it would take is one rogue general to start World War Three….is that important enough for you skeptics?