Tag: North Africa

Is Sudan Next?

AS an analyst of conflict I am always on the outlook for the next possible conflict that could drag the US into participation……after reading various reports and watching situations the possibility of Sudan as the next region of conflict…..

My friends at Middle East Monitor has issued a warning….

With the recall of Sudan’s Ambassador from Egypt, the closure of the Eritrean Border and a recent visit by Turkey’s President in which a Turkish takeover of a strategic island port fuelled uncertainty, it is safe to say that Sudan has moved closer than ever before to direct military conflict with its neighbours. The country now finds itself preparing its strategy to deal with major geopolitical issues facing the region.

The relative calm was arguably first disturbed by the Sudanese President’s visit to Sochi on 23 November last year, where he met his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin. Omar Al-Bashir’s brief encounter set off a chain of reactions adding disquiet to the already tense atmosphere between his country and Egypt, and served to worry Sudan’s neighbours across the Red Sea in Saudi Arabia.

https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20180108-sudan-is-preparing-its-strategy-for-a-conflict-with-its-neighbours/#.WlOmYY-kAtc.

I will keep an eye on this situation.

Closing Thought–28Dec17

We all remember Qaddafi….the leader of Libya……hated by Reagan and Bush 1, tolerated by Clinton then embraced by Bush2 and finally killed by Obama…..since his death Libya has been a bloody mess….factions fighting factions, tribes fighting tribes, and ISIS showing its ugly head….I give you this quick historical sketch because Libya will soon be holding a presidential election and there may be a Qaddafi on the ballot…….

The son of late Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi, Saif al-Islam, is planning to run in the 2018 presidential elections.

Libyan tribal chief Basem al-Hashimi al-Soul confirmed the candidacy of Saif al-Islam on Sunday (17 December)

“Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, the son of the former Libyan president, enjoys the support of major tribes in Libya so he can run for the upcoming presidential elections due in 2018,” Soul told Egypt Today.

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/could-muammar-gaddafis-son-saif-al-islam-be-next-libyan-president-1651965

Just a little something to fill the dead air….

Tomorrow is another day and I will be here with more stuff…..chuq

Foreign Policy Round-Up–Dec2017

I realize that it is that time of year where people like to think of peace and good will toward men….well that is not happening…..while we are wishing people the best of the season the rest of the world is going to crap…..so you feelings of goodwill mean nothing in the larger scheme of things.

Let me give you the rundown of what is happening during your lapse into a joyous season……..

1–ISIS-AQ Conflict……

After a more than four-year absence, Jund al-Islam (JAI) has returned to the forefront in Sinai, marking a new chapter in the fierce conflict between al-Qaeda and the Islamic State (Daesh, ISIL, ISIS). The group published an audio recording in which it took credit for an attack targeting ISIS affiliates in Sinai known as Wilayat Sinai (WS). Jund al-Islam deemed them Kharitjites or those that defected from the group, and demanded that WS leaders turn themselves in. This attack raises many questions related to the sudden timing of Jund al-Islam’s emergence, its relationship with al-Qaeda, and the likely impact of the renewal of old hostilities between Wilayat Sinai and Jund al-Islam.

https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2017/11/30/a_new_chapter_in_the_conflict_between_al-qaeda_and_isis_112700.html

Libya has not made the news lately….let me catch you up……….

When the Obama administration led a 2011 NATO military intervention on behalf of rebels seeking to overthrow Libyan dictator Muammar el-Qaddafi, there was considerable optimism that the move would produce a much better country. Although U.S. officials and their media cheerleaders acknowledged that significant challenges remained for a post-Qaddafi Libya, they argued that the outcome could scarcely be worse than the oppressive status quo. Events over the past six years have proven their assumptions spectacularly wrong. Libya is now a cauldron of turmoil and Islamic radicalism.

http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-skeptics/libya-failed-state-its-americas-fault-23325

Syria has some dealings with the peace process and as usual the US is not there…..

Russian President Vladimir Putin welcomed Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to Sochi on Tuesday to discuss efforts to end the Syrian civil war. The presidents of Iran and Turkey are scheduled to meet Putin on Wednesday as Russia promises to scale back its military presence in Syria and push for a diplomatic solution.
https://www.usip.org/publications/2017/11/will-russian-peace-efforts-pay-syria

But wait there is more……

As 2017 comes to a close, the warring parties in Syria are moving towards reconciliation—but the U.S. is not among them.

The Islamic State is all but defeated, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) and its allies are now closing in on the few remaining pockets occupied by other extremists, and Iranians, Russians, and Turks are mapping out the peace to come.

Then there’s America. Donald Trump may have hinted at changes up his sleeve, but he’s treading the same tired path as his predecessor on Syria.

http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/in-syria-mideast-peacemaking-is-no-longer-made-in-america/

The aftershocks of the combat deaths of four U.S. special operations soldiers in Niger on Oct. 4 are still shaking the Pentagon two months later.

The deaths prompted a familiar refrain from the American public: “Why are we there?” This expected, if fair, question reminds us of the precisely opposite question asked about Afghanistan after the shock of 9/11: “Why aren’t we there?”

To be there or not to be there? Either way you answer, you’ll find risk.

The devastating ambush in west Niger occurred on the 24th anniversary of another bloody day in modern military history. The Battle of Mogadishu in Somalia occurred on the third and fourth day of October 1993, leaving 18 American soldiers dead and 73 wounded. This ambush also triggered surprise, then outrage, then investigation — the “why are we there?” inquiry. As the grim tactical details of this mission-gone-bad come to light, a broader strategic question looms: Where exactly does the United States need to project power abroad to prevent strategic surprise?

https://warontherocks.com/2017/12/playing-zone-defense-niger-risk-vs-reward-remote-operations/

Now to Afghanistan……

President Ashraf Ghani looks set to mobilize a new 20,000-strong militia to fight the Taliban in Afghanistan. The story of militias loyal to his former running mate and current vice-president, Abdul Rashid Dostum, should give him pause. Many of Dostum’s former commanders, who were armed to fight the Taliban, are now joining both the Islamic State and the Taliban.

Such defections are hardly the exception. Militias, once mobilized, are hard to disarm. When resources dwindle, they often seek new patrons and switch sides. By mobilizing a new force Ghani risks reinforcing, over time, the ranks of the very enemy he hopes to defeat. Today’s allies risk becoming tomorrow’s insurgents.

https://warontherocks.com/2017/12/afghanistan-todays-pro-government-militias-tomorrows-insurgents/

There is so much more….there is always more……to be continued in another post…..chuq

Death Comes To Sinai

By now I am sure that most everyone has heard about the barbarous attack on religious practitioners at prayer….but in case you have not….

Friday the news came about the horrific attack on a mosque in Sinai…..killing people in prayer to include children……

Egypt on Saturday said an attack on a mosque by militants in the country’s troubled region of northern Sinai has killed 305 worshipers, including 27 children, a dramatic increase in the death toll previously announced, which was 235. A statement by the country’s chief prosecutor, Nabil Sadeq, said the attack Friday left another 128 people wounded, per the AP. It said the attackers, estimated at between 25 and 30, arrived at the mosque close to the small town of Bir al-Abd in five all-terrain vehicles and positioned themselves at the main door and the facility’s 12 windows before opening fire. They also torched seven cars parked outside the mosque, which belonged to worshipers inside. Witnesses said some of the attackers were masked. Those who were not sported heavy beards and long hair. The militants wore camouflaged pants and black T-shirts.

The chief prosecutor’s statement was the most detailed by authorities on the attack, the deadliest by Islamic extremists in Egypt’s modern history. The account it gave generally agreed with what witnesses told the AP on Saturday in the Suez Canal city of Ismailia, where some of the wounded are hospitalized. They spoke of horrific scenes during the approximately 20 minutes it took the militants to kill and maim worshipers, recalling how some jumped out of windows and children screamed in horror. “Everyone lay down on the floor and kept their heads down,” said one witness. “If you raised your head you get shot.” Friday’s attack targeted a mosque frequented by Sufis, members of a mystic movement within Islam. Islamic militants, including the local affiliate of the Islamic State group, consider Sufis heretics because of their less literal interpretations of the faith.

I heard a couple journalist (Western) that called these victims as sufis, a sect of Islam….well it is NOT a sect it is traditional sunni beliefs only more introspective…..

Sufism is a mystical form of Islam, a school of practice that emphasizes the inward search for God and shuns materialism. It has produced some of the world’s most beloved literature, like the love poems of the 13th century Iranian jurist Rumi. Its modern-day adherents cherish tolerance and pluralism, qualities that in many religions unsettle extremists.

But Sufism, often known as Islamic mysticism, has come under violent attack in recent years. On Friday, militants stormed a Sufi mosque on the Sinai Peninsula, killing at least 305 people in what officials are calling the worst terrorist attack in Egypt’s modern history. The attack followed several assaults on Sufi shrines in Pakistan over the past year carried out by Sunni extremists. (The vast majority of Sufis are Sunni, though some are Shiite.)

We all here at IST send our condolences to the families of the victims…may God open his arms and embrace them….

South Sudan–We Must Choose Sides

How many know of the problems in South Sudan?

My guess would be 1 in 10 may have an idea….otherwise NO one gives a crap about what is happening in Africa.

Before I go nay further maybe a little background would help my readers……

An overwhelming majority of South Sudanese voted in a January 2011 referendum to secede and become Africa’s first new country since Eritrea split from Ethiopia in 1993.

The young state plunged into crisis in December 2013 amid a power struggle between the president and his deputy whom he had sacked.

Fighting between government troops and rebel factions erupted into a conflict that had killed thousands and prompted more than 2.2 million people to flee their homes by the time a tentative internationally-mediated peace agreement was signed in August 2015.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-14019208

Now that you have the background I will get to the meat of this post……

The incompetent ambassador of the US to the UN, Nikki Haley, has made it clear that the US must take sides…..

The U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations says the South Sudanese government is engaged in a brutal, protracted military campaign against a fragmented opposition and says, while both sides are responsible for atrocities against civilians, the government is primarily responsible for ethnically based killings.

Nikki Haley, who made those remarks Wednesday at Washington’s Holocaust Museum, says nothing prepared her for the level of suffering she saw when she recently visited South Sudanese refugee camps.

http://allafrica.com/stories/201711170264.html

She may have been a good enough governor of South Carolina but that is where any competency stops.

Must take sides in the South Sudan situation?

What about the US taking sides with the killing and land theft of Palestinians?

Or what about taking sides on the atrocities being committed in Yemen?

NO!  She can only think of the situation in South Sudan in which the US needs to take sides.

And yet North Korea has been added to the list of state sponsored terrorism…..makes one think.

This illustrates just how out of her league is she is at the UN.

Hired by another incompetent fool.

Check For Runaway Slaves

Since 1865 the US has been slave free….and you would think that in the 21st century that slavery would be a thing of the past, right?

You would be greatly mistaken as I was when I first read an article about this situation……

Trafficked people passing through Libya have previously reported violence, extortion and slave labour. But the new testimony from the International Organization for Migration suggests that the trade in human beings has become so normalised that people are being traded in public.

“The latest reports of ‘slave markets’ for migrants can be added to a long list of outrages [in Libya],” said Mohammed Abdiker, IOM’s head of operation and emergencies. “The situation is dire. The more IOM engages inside Libya, the more we learn that it is a vale of tears for all too many migrants.”

The north African nation is a major exit point for refugees from Africa trying to take boats to Europe. But since the overthrow of autocratic leader Muammar Gaddafi, the vast, sparsely populated country has slid into violent chaos and migrants with little cash and usually no papers are particularly vulnerable.

http://www.therealafrican.com/2017/11/arab-slave-trade-re-surfaces-in-libya/

CNN brought this story to light…..they should be commended for finding this story and digging for the facts…..

CNN recently released an exclusive report detailing slave auctions occurring across Libya. Migrants and refugees, comprised of people who have travelled to Libya with the hopes of a better future, are being auctioned off. Instead of providing them with a better future, the smugglers sold them to labourers for under one thousand U.S. dollars. After seeing footage of such an auction taking place, CNN travelled to Libya to investigate further and to verify the information. The journalists witnessed one auction outside Tripoli and were told of at least eight others across the country – and there is believed to be more.

While CNN’s report may be bringing this issue to the attention of the mainstream media, this is not a new development. Mohammed Abdiker, the International Organization for Migration’s (IOM) Director of Operation and Emergencies, called the slave market in Libya “dire” after visiting earlier this year. In April, the Independent talked to migrants in a rehabilitation centre run by Médecins Sans Frontières in Sicily. Here they heard stories from Nigerian men who had spent time in Libya on their journey to Europe. While there, they were made to do hard labour, threatened with guns if they refused to work or asked for pay. This is not an isolated incident. IOM estimated almost half of the migrants arriving in Italy had been forced into work, 90% of this taking place in Libya.

http://theowp.org/libyas-modern-day-slave-trade/

The world and most media outlets do not want to report on such stories…..for no one cares about Africa…..so they ignore an important story as slave trade in Libya.

I have lost some respect for CNN over the last couple of decades…..but they have gained my respect for this story.

The Floating Dead

A blessed Saturday and a day away from the silliness that is American politics….all the she said, he said…all the tax reform crap that will screw the average American….all faux news about a successful presidential trip…..in short…..all the manure…

Awhile back I read a horrific story about the discovery of 26 teen girls bodies floating in the ocean…I have waited to post with the hope that more info would be made available….so far I have seen nothing so here is the original story….

They were mostly between the ages of 14 and 18, and 26 of them are now dead. CNN reports on the latest tragedy in the Mediterranean Sea and describes an appalling scene: teenage girls’ bodies floating lifelessly beside a nearly submerged rubber dinghy that survivors tried to cling to. The AFP reports 23 of the bodies were recovered Friday, with another three subsequently found. Their remains were brought ashore in Salerno, Italy; Salvatore Malfi, the police prefect there, tells NPR they appear to have drowned, but the bodies will be autopsied Tuesday to determine cause of death as well as whether the girls had been sexually abused.

The BBC reports some are questioning whether the girls, believed to hail from Niger and Nigeria, were abused and murdered. They were en route to Europe via Libya, which CNN calls “a hotbed for human traffickers.” The AFP quotes Malfi as apparently trying to tamp down on that line of thought: “The sex trafficking routes are different. Loading women onto a boat is too risky, the traffickers would not do it as they could lose all their ‘goods’—as they describe them—in one fell swoop.” Per the UN’s migration agency, the migrant death toll along the main Mediterranean route stands at 2,639 for the year through Nov. 1, versus 3,615 for the same period last year. (This smuggler reportedly deliberately drowned 50 migrants.)

Anyone that would deliberately drown these girls deserves nothing short of a death sentence without a trial…..there is NO place for this type of person in a civilized world.

With that I shall go to the garden for a snack of figs, honey, dates and a glass of wine (only if the doctor permits it and he will not….dammit)….hope all have a great Saturday and I will return tomorrow.  chuq

 

Phantom Of The Desert

Not to be confused with the “Lion of the Desert”….Omar Mukhtar….Libyan freedom fighter against the Italian occupation.

Omar al-Mukhtar (about ca. 1860-1931), national hero of Libya and member of the Senusy, a religious organization with administrative and military functions, led the anticolonial resistance in Cirenaica from 1923 to 1931, when he was captured by the Italians and condemned to death.

A short course on the recent history of Libya……
But the “Phantom of the Desert” is Saif Al-Islam Qaddafi…son of the disposed leader of Libya who died in 2011 at the hands of rebels (or so goes the common tale)….
Saif had been captured by a rebel group and imprisoned for the last 6 years….but all that has changed….

Seif al-Islam, the son and one-time heir apparent of late Libyan dictator Moammar Gadhafi, has been released after more than five years in detention, his captors said on Saturday. A statement by his captors, the Abu Bakr al-Siddiq Battalion, said Seif al-Islam was released on Friday, but gave no details on his whereabouts. Battalion officials reached by the AP at Zintan, a town south of the capital Tripoli where it is based, confirmed his release. They declined to disclose his whereabouts, citing concerns over his safety. His lawyer tells CNN: “He is free in a safe place in an undisclosed location in a Libyan city.”

They said his release was decided as part of a recent pardon issued by the Libyan parliament based in the country’s eastern region. The parliament in the city of Tobruk is part of one of three rival administrations in Libya, evidence of the chaos that has prevailed in the country since Gadhafi’s ouster and death. Gadhafi’s son was captured by the battalion’s fighters late in 2011, the year when a popular uprising toppled Gadhafi after more than 40 years in power. He was later killed. The uprising later plunged the oil-rich North African nation into a ruinous civil war in which Seif al-Islam led Gadhafi’s loyalist forces against the rebels.

I bring this all up because of the situation in Libya these days……there are 3 separate groups claiming to be the legit government of the country.  The country has broken down along old imperialistic lines…..

JPEG - 71.1 kb

An update on Saif……it appears that there may have been an attempt on his life after his release…..

As reported by RT, hundreds of people took to the streets in Ghat, on Saturday night, to celebrate the release of Saif Gaddafi after several years of detention.

The footage shows honking cars driving through the streets. Other Gaddafi supporters were seen waving the green flags of the ‘Great Socialist People’s Libyan Arab Jamahiriya’, as has been seen frequently in parts of Libya since the fall of the state in 2011.

What hasn’t been widely reported in international media is the alleged assassination attempt that was carried out on Saif in May. It was reported by some Arab sources that Saif had ‘narrowly survived an assassination attempt by gunmen from local militias’.

There is no way of knowing if this assassination attempt was simply a rival militia or jihadist group acting entirely of its own accord or whether someone else was also behind the incident.

(RT is not a reliable source in my book…but for the sake of news I thought I would include their report….my personal opinion)

Saif could be a stabilizing factor, his politics suck, but Libya is tearing itself apart at the seams…..he could bring some order to the disorder,,,but first he will have to find a way to counter the CIA puppet in charge in Eastern Libya….Col. Haftar

Some group needs to sit down with Saif and see if there can be a workable solution….he could be part of the solution……this will not happen….but it should.

Libya: What To Do?

Libya has been in the news, not so much in the US but the rest of the world is watching, at every turn the news is that ISIS is taking it in the butt…..however the divisions among the different factions is still a kettle at boiling point.

But let’s say the shooting is over and Libya becomes a calm region….but what would be the government that would protect this calm?

Well there is the typical answer when dealing with the Arab world….a federal government.

I say typical because it has been proposed for two other countries at war….Iraq and Syria……(check out the proposals)

Source: How About a Federalized Iraq? – In Saner Thought

Source: The Partition Of Syria – In Saner Thought

And now there is talk of a partitioning of Libya…..

History repeats itself, it is often said. The strife facing modern-day Libya—strife largely born of and fueled by internal, sometimes tribal divisions—is only the latest iteration in a longstanding pattern. As the Italians discovered during their colonization of Libya, and as ISIS discovered when it conquered Sirte, and as the international community has recently discovered in a multitude of ways, Libya is a deeply divided country. Without a real approach to that reality—including perhaps creating a confederal model for Libya—Libyans themselves will continue to be their own worst enemies.

Source: A house divided: Why partitioning Libya might be the only way to save it | Brookings Institution

This idea was floated by an adviser of Trump…one Gorka….Politico covered his proposal written on a napkin…..

Dear Dr. Gorka,

So I hear you’re interested in being Donald Trump’s envoy to Libya. You even sketched a plan on a napkin to partition the country. The plan would divide Libya into three provinces that date back to the Ottoman Empire in the 16th century, and thereby solve Libya’s current crisis. If it were only that simple.

Source: So You Want to Partition Libya … – POLITICO Magazine

Some, like myself, do know think that partitioning is the answer….it is not a good idea for Iraq nor Syria….and Libya fits into that disapproval nicely…..

In their final communique at the end of their two-day meeting in Italy on April 10, the foreign ministers of the Group of Seven yet again expressed their unequivocal support of the Libyan political agreement and its transitional government headed by Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj, while calling on all armed groups in the Libyan capital to “desist from actions that would exacerbate internal division and fuel further conflict.”

What is worth noting in the statement on Libya is the clear expression of support to the country’s territorial integrity and unity, which clearly rejects any idea of a possible breakup of the country as a way of stabilizing it, since its quarreling factions have failed to accept any form of a political solution. The statement read, “We reaffirm our commitment to preserving the sovereignty, integrity and unity of Libya.”
Libya will have its problems after the hostilities….but breaking the country up is NOT the best answer.

Whatever Generals Want Will Generals Get?

Since few in the American blogosphere care little about our adventurism overseas….it falls on my shoulders to keep the focus where it belongs…..war is never the answer.

With a new president we will have new goals especially in the field of international relations and war…..we already fight on just about every section of the globe and much taxpayer money goes to extending those wars…..but what do the generals want?

US African Commander Gen. Thomas Waldhauser today confirmed that he is still seeking increased authority to carry out attacks in Somalia, seeking President Trump’s permission for more “flexibility” in carrying out airstrikes and using ground troops in the country.

It was reported last month that the Pentagon was looking to expand involvement in Somalia, though Waldhauser today confirmed that the White House has not granted them the permission that they were seeking, leaving unclear what the holdup is, as the Trump Administration is sending more and more forces across Africa.

According to Waldhauser, the changes would not just open up an increase in operations in Somalia, but also allow the pentagon to provide increased direct aid to the Somali National Army, including potentially putting embedded troops in with them in areas close to combat forces.

It seems that Africa is getting a lot of attention…..

In a press briefing at the Pentagon today, African Command leader Gen. Thomas Waldhauser announced that the US intends to keep ground troops in Libya for the foreseeable future to support “friendly forces,” and to “degrade” the ISIS forces that remain in the country.

Waldhauser did not specify how many US troops are in Libya now, or how many will stay, but did estimate that there were less than 200 ISIS fighters left in Libya. The US had announced the end of the anti-ISIS campaign in Libya back in December, but never fully withdrew from the country.

The US forces were in Libya trying to help the “unity” government defeat ISIS in the city of Sirte. US officials repeatedly claimed the city was totally surrounded, and that no ISIS fighters would get away, though when the fighting finally ended, a substantial number of ISIS fighters did in fact get away.

Waldhauser hinted that the US operations in Libya would primarily be airstrikes going forward, saying that the US needs to have troops on the ground for “precision airstrikes” and “close-air support operations.” He added that the last US airstrikes, in January, involved US troops meeting face-to-face with allies on coordinating the strikes.

(antiwar.com)

Seems warmongering runs deep in the Trump administration….will this escalate beyond their capabilities to handle?

Well let’s look at Trump’s Wars…..

President Donald Trump is no stranger to conflict escalation. In his short time in office, he has managed to successfully escalate disputes against the media, immigrants and the intelligence community. Yet Trump’s most important escalation has been in the War on Terror, substantially increasing the U.S. commitment to wars in Yemen, Syria and elsewhere. Unfortunately, these steps are likely only to draw America deeper into some of the world’s most intractable conflicts

Source: Trump’s Wars | Cato Institute

What are the chances that this will become a hydra, a monster with many heads?