Tag: Korean Peninsula

North Korea, Along The Way

North Korea is once again in the news….NO we do not have a peace treaty and we have not got a deal to dump all nukes on the Peninsula……basically something nice was said by Kim about Trump and that warranted a couple days of news reports.

Some have said that the US is going about the situation with North Korea all wrong……

U.S. President Donald Trump came to office clearly determined to reverse his predecessor’s policy toward North Korea, one that he saw as stagnant and ineffective. “The era of strategic patience is over,” Trump declared in 2017. Other Republican voices echoed this promise to chart a new path. When Trump’s first approach, rooted in threats and bellicosity, offered little reason for optimism, the president shifted to diplomatic engagement.

What harm, many asked, could come from negotiations? “I don’t believe this is a situation where the president has anything to lose,” explained former homeland security adviser Tom Bossert. In most cases, such confidence would be justified. What harm could possibly come from diplomatic engagement? North Korea, however, is not most cases, and the harm to American interests that appears to be emerging as a direct result of the Singapore talks may prove to be quite significant indeed.

https://thediplomat.com/2018/09/where-the-us-went-wrong-on-north-korea/

The news now is in a parade to celebrate 70 years of a Kim at the wheel….there were the usual suspects marching in review but what was not usual was the lack of missiles in the parade make-up….

North Korea rolled out some of its latest tanks and its best-trained goose-stepping units through Kim Il Sung Square in a major military parade Sunday to mark its 70th anniversary, but held back its most advanced missiles and devoted nearly half the event to underscoring Kim Jong Un’s new strategy of putting economic development front and center. Tens of thousands of North Koreans waving brightly colored plastic bouquets filled Pyongyang’s Kim Il Sung Square as the parade began, reports the AP. Pyongyang residents have been training for months for the anniversary and held up the bouquets to spell words and slogans that can be seen from the VIP viewing area. Those unable to attend at the square lined the streets around town to cheer convoys carrying the troops after they complete parade duties.

Although North Korea stages military parades almost every year, and held one just before the Olympics in South Korea in February, Sunday’s parade came at a particularly sensitive time. Kim’s effort to ease tensions with President Trump has stalled since their June summit in Singapore. With tensions again on the rise, a parade featuring the very missiles that so unnerved Trump last year, and led to a dangerous volley of insults from both leaders, could have been seen as a deliberate provocation. The “new line” of economic development has been Kim’s top priority this year. He claims to have perfected his nuclear arsenal enough to deter US aggression and devote his resources to raising the standard of living. This year’s celebrations also mark the revival of North Korea’s iconic mass games, which involve tens of thousands holding up placards or dancing in precise unison in a display of national unity

This should send the analysts into a frenzy trying to explain what Kim is doing.

Is this something positive or negative?

Well Trump has received another letter and a request……

President Donald Trump has received a request from North Korean leader Kim Jong Un for a follow-up to their historic June summit, and planning is in motion to make it happen. White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders said Monday that no details had been finalized, the AP reports. Trump had told reporters last week that he was expecting a letter from Kim. Sanders said Trump has received the letter, which she described as “very warm, very positive.” The White House will not release the full letter unless Kim agrees it should be made public, she said. “The primary purpose of the letter was to request and look to schedule another meeting with the president, which we are open to and are already in the process of coordinating that,” Sanders said at her first press briefing in nearly three weeks. She cited the letter as “further evidence of progress” in relations between the leaders.

On Sunday, Trump offered praise for Kim following a North Korean military parade that, unlike past parades, downplayed the missiles and nuclear weapons that brought North Korea to the brink of military conflict with the United States just a year ago. “This is a big and very positive statement from North Korea,” Trump tweeted Sunday about the parade. “Thank you To Chairman Kim. We will both prove everyone wrong! There is nothing like good dialogue from two people that like each other! Much better than before I took office.” Sanders also cited the parade in her comments Monday. “The recent parade in North Korea, for once, was not about their nuclear arsenal,” she said, characterizing the event as “a sign of good faith.” Trump, she said, had achieved “tremendous success” with his policies so far toward North Korea “and this letter was further evidence of progress in that relationship.”

I think a second meeting would benefit only Kim…..the US would get little out of it and in turn would look like we were graveling to Kim.

And the beat goes on!

Did You Know North Korea Was Still There?

As usual the situation with North Korea is not very newsworthy these days….we have a SCOTUS duel, a op-ed that has the Dear Leader batcrap pissed and then there is the probes this and the probes that….and in all the drama the situation with North Korea soldiers on……

Since the MSM wants to sweep most of it under the rug (would that be a Persian rug?  Persia?  Ain’t that Iran?)…….

It seems that Kim wants a declaration of peace for the Korean Peninsula and Trump’s boyz are waffling……

White House and State Department officials are reiterating that they have no current interest in making a deal with North Korea that would involve a peace declaration ending the Korean War.

The State Department said on Wednesday that the US position is that “denuclearization has to take place before we get to other parts.” The administration has repeatedly said they believe Korean denuclearization will take years, and that they want “progress” before the 2020 election.

The Korean War began in 1950, and 68 years later, there has never been a formal peace treaty ending the conflict. North Korea has been seeking a peace treaty for decades, with the US always resisting such a deal.

(antiwar.com)

Another summit is coming to a screen near you……mind you what Barry Goldwater said about a “summit”…..”only summit meeting that can succeed is the one that never takes place”…..could that be accurate in this case?

South Korean officials announced on Thursday that a deal has been reached to hold a summit in Pyongyang from September 18-20. The summit is to focus on “practical measures” which could be taken for denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

South Korean national security adviser Chung Eui-yong told reporters that North Korea’s Kim Jong Un has “reconfirmed his determination to completely denuclearize,” and that he continues to have faith in President Trump.

The commitment to denuclearize is a major announcement, as US officials have been increasingly dubious about that, and complaining about the lack of quick progress. North Korean officials say Kim is frustrated by the doubts expressed in the international community about his will to preemptively denuclearize. He told Chung that he feels the good faith moves made by North Korea should be reciprocated.

(antiwar.com)

The trade war that Our Dear Leader has started with China has consequences……many have said the China has been a big help getting NK to the negotiating table….but for how much longer?

While the US has been pushing for diplomatic progress with North Korea to be met with even more restrict sanctions and restrictions, other countries have called for the UN to ease them. The US has blocked that, so far, but it isn’t stopping nations like China unilaterally easing limits on trade.

China has long been North Korea’s main trading partner, and while that trade ground to a halt earlier this year, a lot of it shows signs of picking up. Reports have China reopening coal trade, restarting frozen construction projects, and again allowing tourists into Pyongyang.

Analysts are suggesting that this “undercuts” US calls to keep escalating sanctions on North Korea, though there is also a case to be made that China is trying to ensure that it retains a major seat at the table if North Korea suddenly becomes an opened market with a lot of trade business.

(antiwar.com)

How much longer will China assist the process with this trade war looming large?

As one can see here is more going on on the Korean Peninsula than we are being told…..

A closing thought–President Trump tweeted to thank North Korea’s Kim Jong Un for his “unwavering faith,” promising that the two leaders would “get it done together.” This came after Wednesday’s reports that Kim, despite frustration at the diplomatic process, remains confident in Trump’s ability to progress things personally.

 

1950’s–What Happened To Peace In Korea?

A war ends with a ceasefire and there is no further attempts to bring about a lasting peace…..after 60+ years why is that?

Most recently Our Dear Leader help a “summit” with the leader of North Korea, Kim…..and after this meeting we were promised that the Korean Peninsula would be nuke free soon…..

But let’s step back in time shall we…..the the 1950’s we and our allies fought a war on the Korean Peninsula and after a couple of bloody years a ceasefire was signed and the hostilities halted….a ceasefire but why no peace pact?

Yep a history question so that I can flex my historical muscle…..try it it is fun…….

In the long history of Korea, nothing compares to the 20th century division of the peninsula or the war that followed. That war has not finished, and a peace treaty remains elusive. China, North Korea and South Korea all seek a peace treaty, but 11 U.S. presidents since 1953 have been unwilling to agree.

If President Trump turns out to be the exception, that shift could help put an end to more than a half-century of conflict — and the role of the United States in determining whether peace arrives is not a small one. Neither is it coincidental: in fact, the U.S. has played a key role in keeping the conflict going as long as it has.

http://time.com/5360343/korean-war-american-history/

What is the reason that the US needed this conflict to continue?  Of course it is all about the Military-Industrial Complex……greed is a prime motivator.

In closing the Nuke News…….

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has issued its latest report on North Korea’s nuclear program, with its usual language expressing “grave concern” about any ongoing nuclear developments which might be active.

These reports on North Korea are a lot less specific than the IAEA reports one would be used to seeing on Iran, which is awash in IAEA inspectors since the nuclear deal. The IAEA has not a single inspector in North Korea, meaning everything in the report is based on second-hand reports and allegations.

Which means the IAEA report is in great measure just a reiteration of media reports we’ve already seen, with the conclusion that they haven’t seen any indication North Korea has stopped all nuclear activity. With no inspectors, they don’t really know, however.

The watchdog says that North Korea’s nuclear power plant is believed to still be running. It likely is since there’s never been report of a shutdown. The other speculations about activity are based heavily on media reports of what’s been seen in satellite images, and what third parties have guessed those may imply.

(antiwar.com)

Is there a de-nuke deal or not?  We were told that there was a deal and that denuclearization would commence…..I know it is early in the process but so far nothing seems to be progressing as we were told.

News From The Democratic People’s Republic Of Korea

There is not much in the news these days about North Korea…..the news has been too toxic even for news about Kim.

And that is why I am here to give my reader that which the MSM refuses to report…..

According to Dear Leader after Singapore NK will work to rid the nukes from the Korean Peninsula……but what about all those missile that he was firing off last Summer?

Just days after the Korean Peninsula’s top US military commander warned that North Korea’s nuclear production capability remains intact, some slightly more encouraging news: The country appears to be dismantling its main satellite launch site, the BBC reports. US-based monitoring group 38 North reported Monday that satellite images of the country’s Sohae station, believed by the US to be a test site for launching intercontinental ballistic missiles, appear to show that North Korea has started dismantling “key facilities” at the site. And an official from South Korea’s presidential office said Tuesday that Seoul has also been detecting dismantlement activities at the site, the AP reports. 38 North calls it “an important first step towards fulfilling a commitment made by Kim Jong Un at the June 12 Singapore Summit” with US President Trump, during which Kim reportedly agreed to denuclearize.

But analysts say that unless the entire Sohae site is dismantled, North Korea’s military capabilities won’t be diminshed. And sources tell CNN that North Korea expects the US to reciprocate in the form of agreeing to a permanent peace treaty with Pyongyang, that ensures the survival of Kim’s regime, if negotiations are to continue. Multiple sources recently told the Washington Post Trump, who has publicly been urging patience with the denuclearization process, has privately been expressing frustration with the perceived slow pace. But Trump hit back at that report Monday, tweeting, “A Rocket has not been launched by North Korea in 9 months. Likewise, no Nuclear Tests. Japan is happy, all of Asia is happy. But the Fake News is saying, without ever asking me (always anonymous sources), that I am angry because it is not going fast enough. Wrong, very happy!”

That is good news indeed…….we will keep an eye on the progress.

Do you, my reader, recall the saga of Otto Warmbier…he was that American that was held by North Korea and tortured until he was in a coma and then sent back to the US…….this was news amplified….it took up most of the day or so that it was milked…..but has there been any further details coming out?

Doug Bock Clark begins a lengthy piece for GQ on the fate of Otto Warmbier with a bold assertion: That what happened to the 21-year-old American college student “is even more shocking than anyone knew” and that he had the “untold story.” So does he? The piece, the result of six months of reporting, is indeed incredibly detailed and filled with one major previously unreported nugget. He gives a timeline of the intense efforts made to free Warmbier, from meetings with the “New York Channel” (North Korea’s reps at United Nations headquarters) to a proposal to have then-president-elect Trump pick Warmbier up in his plane. After learning in June 2017 Warmbier was unconscious, North Korea was “unilaterally informed” that a US plane would arrive to collect him.

“Intense negotiations” followed on the ground, and Michael Flueckiger, the medical director for Phoenix Air, whose Gulfstream G-III jet was being used in the mission, was finally allowed to see Warmbier. He knew immediately that “the Otto of old was already gone,” though he noted the hospital care had been of quality (Warmbier had no bedsores, for instance, which is difficult in the case of a comatose patient). Flueckiger tells Clark that the hospital staff told him Warmbier had been admitted unresponsive the morning after he was sentenced to 15 years, a timeline detail that hadn’t been made public. But only two weeks prior, Warmbier appeared on TV and seemed healthy. The narrow window between the two suggests to Clark that the theory that Warmbier was continually beaten doesn’t hold up, and he provides other evidence in support of that. So what happened? Clark presents one theory: that it was a suicide attempt gone wrong. Read his full piece here.

That is where we are today with the Otto saga……is it the rest of the story….hard to say but we will keep watching for further details.

Mines That Litter The Diplomatic Field

I realize that most people are trying to wrap their heads around just what the deal is with Dear Leader and Putin…but there is another situation that should not be ignored.

Even the most moronic of Trump supporters has got his mind full of the Kim-Trump “summit”….most seem to think that some sort of peace deal is inevitable simply because the two men met and complimented each and that is all it takes to end 70 years of hostilities…..to that way of think I say….you are dreaming moose brains!

I wrote a couple of posts after the “summit” had taken place describing what could happen as the process went forward…..5

https://lobotero.com/2018/06/13/what-are-the-summit-successes/

https://lobotero.com/2018/06/14/peace-in-our-time-4/

The negotiations to rid the Korean Peninsula of the threat of nukes could hit several land mines in diplomacy……

A denuclearization deal with North Korea is more within reach than anyone could have thought possible a very short time ago. Thanks to the tireless diplomatic work of Moon Jae In of South Korea and the unexpectedly adept diplomatic work of Kim Jong Un of North Korea, a joint statement between North Korea and the United States exists and the impossible is suddenly under way.

Those who dismiss the the joint agreement as vague and vacuous and light on detail forget how far the language of the joint declaration has traveled since Trump’s first “fire and fury like the world has never seen” attempt at diplomacy. They also commit the error of comparing the joint statement to history’s final agreements rather than to other first meetings. The diplomacy may also have more content than the joint statement reveals, since some steps seem to have been negotiated that have not yet been made public.

https://original.antiwar.com/Ted_Snider/2018/06/27/the-three-landmines-that-could-kill-the-korea-deal/

There are NO guarantees that this will be a successful diplomatic effort……we can wish them well….but it will be up to the diplomats working behind the scenes to make it a success.

But we should not put too much in the denuke basket?  Why?

Bill Clinton offered oil and reactors. George W. Bush mixed threats and aid. Barack Obama stopped trying after a rocket launch.

A decades-long cycle of crises, stalemates and broken promises gave North Korea the room to build up a legitimate arsenal that now includes purported thermonuclear warheads and developmental ICBMs. The North’s latest announcement stopped well short of suggesting it has any intention of giving that up.

A look at previous negotiations with North Korea and how the currently planned summits took shape:

https://www.militarytimes.com/flashpoints/2018/04/22/road-to-north-koreas-denuclearization-is-littered-with-failure/

North Korea–Continues To Unravel

WE all applauded the meeting of Kim-Trump and their announcement of a path to rid the Korean Peninsula of nukes….that was last month and ever since that meeting this topic is getting more and more confusing.

That idiot Bolton (personal opinion) is telling anyone that will listen that there could be an end to this situation in a year…..

Speaking on Face the Nation on Sunday, John Bolton claimed that the White House has a plan all set up that would see all North Korean “weapons of mass destruction,” not just their nuclear program, dismantled in a year.

Details were scant, but Bolton said it would see North Korea’s nuclear, biological, and chemical arsenals totally wiped out, along with its entire ballistic missile program. He warned this would only be possible with “full cooperation” from North Korea.

(antiwar.com)

This must inevitably raise questions on if Bolton’s comments are designed to support denuclearization, or undermine it. Bolton has long been opposed to North Korea diplomacy, and made it very clear that if his one-year deadline wasn’t met, it’d be proof North Korea wasn’t serious about the deal. This could easily be a plan designed to fail.

And yet intel shows a different situation……

President Trump’s declaration that there is “no longer a nuclear threat from North Korea” may have been somewhat premature, according to experts analyzing new satellite images from the country. The images show that North Korea is continuing to expand a missile-manufacturing plant in the city of Hamhung, the Wall Street Journal reports. The plant produces solid-fuel missiles, which can be launched with little warning, suggesting that Pyongyang is pressing ahead with weapons programs despite a recent moratorium on testing, analysts say. Intelligence sources tell the Washington Post that North Korea is preparing to conceal its nuclear weapons instead of giving up its entire stockpile.

A Defense Intelligence Agency report has concluded that despite Trump’s talk of a denuclearization deal after meeting Kim Jong Un, North Korean officials plan to deceive their American counterparts on the number of nuclear weapons and facilities they have, the Post‘s sources say. During a Fox interview Sunday, when asked about North Korea’s use of secret sites to enrich uranium, Trump admitted that it was possible the deal with North Korea, which didn’t include a deadline for denuclearization, could fall through, the Guardian reports. “I shook hands with him, I really believe he means it,” Trump said of Kim. “Now, is it possible? Have I been in deals, have you been in things where people didn’t work out? It’s possible.” (Work at a North Korea nuclear site is proceeding at “a rapid pace.”)

News has come out that Pompeo will return of DPRK…..

The White House says Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will make another trip to North Korea as the Trump administration seeks agreement with Pyongyang on an acceptable denuclearization plan. Per the AP, press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders announced on Monday that Pompeo would travel to North Korea this week. The trip to Pyongyang will be Pompeo’s second as top US diplomat and the first by a senior US official since Trump’s historic meeting with Kim Jong Un in Singapore last month. The trip comes as concerns mount over the North’s willingness to follow through on the agreement signed by the two leaders. US officials say they are clear-eyed about the North’s past behavior in negotiations. Pompeo last visited Pyongyang in May ahead of the Trump-Kim summit and traveled there secretly in early April while he was director of the CIA.

The announcement of Pompeo’s trip comes at the heels of news that satellite images have revealed that North Korea is continuing to expand a missile-manufacturing plant in the city of Hamhung, the Wall Street Journal reports. The plant produces solid-fuel missiles, which can be launched with little warning, suggesting that Pyongyang is pressing ahead with weapons programs despite a recent moratorium on testing, analysts say. Intelligence sources tell the Washington Post that North Korea is preparing to conceal its nuclear weapons instead of giving up its entire stockpile. On Sunday, Trump’s national security adviser John Bolton told CBS’ “Face the Nation” the the US has a plan that would lead to the dismantling of North Korea’s nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs in just one year. The Associated Press has more on why experts believe that 1-year plan may be unrealistic.

And the drama carries on…..everyday seems to be something new…..is all this a misdirection?  Or is there just an air of naivete?

The “Summit” Unravels?

We all know of the meeting between Kim and trump and yes even I applauded his, Trump’s, effort to bring peace to the Korean Peninsula…..what was it that Reagan said…..”Trust but verify”……that is good advice when dealing with North Korea……why?

Just a little over two weeks ago, President Trump tweeted, “There is no longer a Nuclear Threat from North Korea,” touting a vague agreement between the US and North Korea to work toward denuclearization. Many noted his post-summit declaration was unlikely, and recent satellite images lent credence to their doubt, showing infrastructure work at the Yongbyon nuclear site continuing at a “rapid pace.” Now, more than a dozen US officials inform NBC News on US intelligence agencies’ new suspicions: that Kim Jong Un has multiple sites boosting output of enriched uranium for nuclear weapons, and that Kim Jong Un is trying to keep them under cover while still vying for concessions with the US. “There is absolutely unequivocal evidence that they are trying to deceive the US,” says one official who’s been briefed on the intelligence report; four other officials agree.

A senior US intelligence official notes specifically what that deception involves: “The number of facilities, the number of weapons, [and] the number of missiles.” And another intelligence official says there are actually “lots of things” North Korea has tried to keep secret, revelations made as the US has augmented its spying efforts over the past few years. Most notably, per the intelligence report, it’s now believed that, in addition to Yongbyon and a second secret site that’s been long suspected, there’s at least one more. “This is why people want North Korea to declare all its facilities up front,” says Joel Wit, founder of the 38 North website dedicated to keeping an eye on North Korea. The White House didn’t respond to an NBC comment request; Reuters also tried, to no avail, to get comments from the White House, State Department, and CIA.

I have said that Americans do not need to get too excited….there is a long time between “summit” and peace.  Any talks will be telling until then optimism is required.

Peace In Our Time?

Let’s get something straight before we get to the meat of this post…..I think that this situation shows promise for a happy ending for the Koreans.  But it will depend on the negotiations of the two parties and not the handshake for the cameras.  This is a dangerous situation and not a reality show….and yes if the deal actually ends the hostilities on the Peninsula then Trump should be awarded the Nobel but not for a handshake photo op.

Now let’s look at what is happening in the Koreas….we already have been beat to death by the US media…..the South Koreans have spoken at the polls….

When South Koreans went to the polls yesterday they registered their unambiguous backing for President Moon’s Democratic Party and the peace process that is a signature policy of his administration. In doing so, they also dealt a devastating blow to the country’s main faction hostile to North Korean diplomacy.

Here’s how one South Korean outlet summed up the results: “In what was considered an opportunity to measure the public support of the Moon Jae-in administration one year into its term, the Democratic Party achieved an enormous victory in the local elections of June 13th, providing even more political flexibility for Moon’s government…. At the same time, the Liberty Korea Party suffered a historically crushing rout that has seen its power wither, leaving it solely with its [traditional strongholds]…as the party appears on the verge of being swept away in a maelstrom of internal discord with members looking for someone to blame for this defeat.” (Translation of original Korean by author.)

(antiwar.com)

Looks like the locals are looking for that happy ending to 70+ years of hostilities……and SecState Pompeo has put a time limit on any deal….

Speaking to reporters on Wednesday, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said that there had been understandings reached with North Korea on in-depth verification of the denuclearization process, and a lot of other issues related to it, that weren’t written explicitly in the official document shown to the public.

Pompeo also talked about the length of the disarmament process, saying the US wants to see major parts of the disarmament done in the next two or two and a half years. President Trump has long said he expected denuclearization to happen in phases.

The time-frame likely reflects US political realities, with the administration hoping that they can have major progress to show off to the voters during the 2020 presidential election. Pompeo added that Trump would restart the frozen wargames with South Korea if North Korea stopped showing good will in the process.

(antiwar.com)

That would be fantastic if a deal could be finalized….as long as South Korea is at the table and agrees to the deal .

As a foreign policy wonk I see this as a chance for a true diplomatic break through……as much as I hate to admit it it does smell like some small beginning of sanity in our foreign policy…..

President Trump gave peace a chance like few presidents before him, and if his critics cannot respect that fact, shame on them. What he and the hawks around him have done is as profound a shift in U.S. foreign policy as it is unexpected in its departure from an America-centric view of the world.

At the heart of this bold initiative is an openness to the wisdom and concerns of other nations, beginning with the government of South Korea but including most definitely the insights of the leaders of neighboring China, Russia and Japan. It is a break with the demonization of the North Korean enemy in the spirit of Richard Nixon’s opening to Communist China, which effectively ended the Cold War.

https://www.truthdig.com/articles/a-victory-for-sanity-in-world-politics/

Now maybe we can work on the G7 and NATO…..a good beginning but it must continue…..the world is waiting.

But wait!  What about those interventionists like John Bolton?  Where will they be standing during this time of sanity?  Trump should worry more about these toads than the media for they are already working to derail the deal.

Critics and pundits have been reacting dismissively to President Donald Trump’s engagement with North Korea’s Kim Jong Un. A few weeks ago Donald Trump was going to start World War III with the Korean peninsula’s “Rocket Man,” or so observers said. Now, the prospect for peace, which has never been formally codified by treaty with North Korea since 1953, seems to have critics equally vexed and upset.

Yet, hoping for peace to fail in order to prevent Trump from gaining a victory is to engage in precisely the type of behavior his critics accuse him of displaying.

https://www.counterpunch.org/2018/06/13/a-blow-to-interventionists-as-us-and-north-korea-move-toward-peace/

So much to do and so little time…..and the clock is ticking…..

North Korea: As The Date Draws Near

June 12, 2018 is the date for the new efforts to make the Korean Peninsula nuke free…Trump is suppose to meet Kim in Singapore…..but there may be a snag seems that both leaders are pushing back at each other as the date draws near……

North Korea is ratcheting up its threats—and potentially inching away from the table. After canceling high-level talks with South Korea planned for Wednesday and warning the US it could cancel Kim Jong Un’s meeting with President Trump over joint military exercises between the US and South Korea, another wrinkle. The Guardian reports Pyongyang is adding to the list of things that could imperil the planned June 12 summit: A statement released by KCNA on Wednesday says the North would bow out if the US maintains its “one-sided demand for us to give up our nukes.” The report quotes first vice minister of foreign affairs Kim Kye Gwan, and the New York Times has the statement in full. More on what it says, and reaction to it:

  • The statement references the “so-called Libya mode of nuclear abandonment” on more than one occasion, saying US comments about complete denuclearization amount to “a manifestation of awfully sinister move to impose on our dignified state the destiny of Libya or Iraq which had been collapsed due to yielding the whole of their countries to big powers. … It is absolutely absurd to dare compare [North Korea], a nuclear weapon state, to Libya which had been at the initial state of nuclear development.”
  • Time addresses the Libya angle, explaining the fact that Moammar Gadhafi “was toppled with US backing despite acquiescing to demands to denuclearize has long been a thorn in US efforts to reach a deal with North Korea—one likely sharpened by Trump’s recent decision to nix a hard-fought denuclearization deal with Iran.”
  • Reuters notes the statement also offered harsh words about US national security adviser John Bolton, who has been promoting a Libya-style denuclearization. “We shed light on the quality of Bolton already in the past, and we do not hide our feeling of repugnance towards him,” it read, with Reuters recalling North Korea having called Bolton “human scum” when he worked for the Bush administration.
  • At the Times, Gerry Mullany sees “a pattern by the unpredictable regime,” and outlines five other times when North Korea “did a sudden about-face.” Read them here.
  • A senior fellow at the Federation of American Scientists offers his take to the Guardian: “The North Koreans know how to make an explicit threat. By their standards, this is pretty circumspect. It could very well be a play for additional leverage or to see how the Trump team reacts.”
  • At Time, Korea expert Professor Stephan Haggard echoes that but sees a second possibility: That Kim has “gotten cold feet—they just want an out.”
  • As for the South, Yonhap reports South Korea Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo “held emergency phone talks Wednesday in a show of solidarity against North Korea’s renewed brinkmanship.” The Guardian reports the joint US-South Korean military exercises, codenamed Max Thunder, started Friday and will continue.

The theater of the absurd continues….a tit for tat…..each trying to out tat the other……but how could a denuclearization be achieved?

The Brookings has a plan……

The recent news about the upcoming summit between President Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un on June 12 in Singapore is exciting and encouraging. It would not have seemed remotely possible a year ago—or even six months ago. Back then, war seemed much more likely. It is impossible to know whether the decision to hold a summit is primarily due to Kim’s newfound confidence in his missile and nuclear capabilities, or his fear of Trump’s military threats, or a result of the pain his country has endured from U.N.-imposed economic sanctions, which have cut North Korea’s external trade in half. Perhaps the charm offensives that Kim, Trump, President Moon, and Secretary Pompeo have been showering on one another led to the summit. In truth, it is probably some combination of most of those factors.

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2018/05/14/a-step-by-step-plan-for-denuclearizing-north-korea/

The point is that if people are waiting for an instant “art of the deal” moment then they will be sadly mistaken.

Time will tell.

Unification Blues

There is much optimism around the Korean talks…..some are even looking forward to a possible unification of the two Koreas….they look toward the Vietnam of the 70’s and later the unification of Germany of the 90’s……

Yes the idea is very promising indeed….or is it?

The North and South have fundamentally diametric economic and political systems and national ideologies. They also have very large guns pointed at each other’s head. Neither side has much reason to trust the other to refrain from trying to exploit the chaos that would come with a transition and force reunification on their own terms. This trust gap is not going away, nor is the prisoner’s dilemma. True reunification would require breathtaking courage from leaders on both sides, who would need to ignore immediate incentives and assume enormous risk while going through the process.

This is, in part, why only two modern states have achieved negotiated, peaceful reunification. One was Yemen in 1990, and its experience ever since has been nothing anyone wants to replicate. The more instructive comparison is Germany, which reunified the same year. Prior to being sliced in two by outside powers, both Germany and Korea were cohesive cultural, linguistic and ethnic entities. Yet both became locked in a protracted zero-sum contest for supremacy between their competing halves. Both are surrounded by countries that, through the long-term lens of their own geopolitical imperatives, would rather see them stay divided. Both had U.S. troops stationed on half their home soil. And like the North, East Germany suffered greatly from the loss of Soviet aid and security.

https://geopoliticalfutures.com/korea-cant-replicate-germanys-reunification/

A fanciful thought…..but we must get past rigorous negotiations before anything can move forward.

I wish I could say that I see a way forward….but with this bunch it is highly unlikely.