Tag: Iran

What’s Next?

The proposed ceasefire talks with Iran did not take (few of us thought it would) and now what fresh Hell awaits the region?

After Vice President JD Vance left Pakistan with no nuclear agreement and few clear next steps, politically problematic options remain for the Trump administration. It could reopen extended negotiations over Iran’s nuclear future, the New York Times reports, or resume the attacks that have triggered the largest energy disruption in modern history. President Trump, who announced a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, has argued that Iran should now simply give in after enduring more than 13,000 strikes. But Tehran says the casualties and damage have only strengthened its resolve. The shaky two-week ceasefire expires April 21.

Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf suggested the next step is up to the US, per the Washington Post. “America has understood our logic and principles, and now it’s time for it to decide whether it can earn our trust or not,” Ghalibaf posted on X. Any renewed conflict could worsen oil shortages, drive gasoline prices higher, deepen supply problems for products including fertilizers and semiconductors, and push inflation above its current 3.3%. Both governments claim victory from the first round of fighting—the US for its firepower, Iran for withstanding it—and neither side is signaling readiness to compromise.

One expert cautioned about the ceasefire, per Deutsche Welle. “The risk is gradual erosion,” said Fatemeh Aman of the Atlantic Council. “Local incidents, miscalculations, or actions by allied groups could test the limits of restraint. Without a follow-up diplomatic process, the ceasefire remains exposed. It may hold in the short term, but it lacks long-term stability.”

Donny’s newest threat for the conflict….a blockade…..

President Trump’s vow to use the US Navy to shut off Iran’s access to the Strait of Hormuz is pushing the six-week war into a more dangerous phase with major economic stakes, the Wall Street Journal reports. After US-Iran peace talks in Pakistan collapsed over Tehran’s nuclear program, Trump said the Navy will on Monday begin blockading the narrow waterway, inspecting ships that have paid Iran for passage, and clearing sea mines; he warned that any Iranian forces firing on US or commercial vessels would be “BLOWN TO HELL.” US Central Command says the blockade, which will begin at 10am Eastern time Monday, will be “enforced impartially against vessels of all nations,” but that ships will be allowed to transit the strait if they are traveling between non-Iranian ports—a step back from Trump’s initial threat of a full blockade, the AP reports.

The Pentagon says the operation is feasible, but current and former officials who spoke to the Journal caution that keeping control of the strait—bordered by Iran and vital to global oil flows—will be far more complicated than launching the blockade. Iran’s regular navy has taken heavy losses, but the Revolutionary Guard still fields a large fleet of fast boats, drones, and mines that can harass or threaten US ships. Retired Rear Adm. Mark Montgomery calls the effort “militarily manageable” but said Washington will likely need partners.

The economic fallout is already spreading. With Iran having previously choked traffic through Hormuz, factories in parts of Asia are cutting output, some gas stations there are rationing fuel, and some airports in Europe and Asia are running low on jet fuel. Analysts estimate about 13 million barrels a day of Gulf oil—or roughly 12% of global supply—has been knocked offline; a successful effort to halt Iran’s remaining exports could remove another 2 million barrels daily.

Trump and his advisers argue the blockade is needed to end what they call Iranian “extortion” and to prevent Tehran from ever obtaining a nuclear weapon. The White House says “numerous countries” will join the effort, though key European and Gulf governments have signaled their participation may depend on a broader ceasefire and an international mandate. Iran, buoyed by recent oil revenue, still holds leverage: it could target Saudi and UAE pipelines that bypass Hormuz or use allied groups to threaten other chokepoints, such as the Bab al-Mandeb off Yemen—raising the possibility of a drawn-out test of endurance between Tehran and a global economy already under strain. Experts who spoke to Reuters echoed those who spoke to the Journal, noting a blockade of the strait is an act of war that could bring retaliation from Iran, and is unlikely to help with US gas prices.

There you have just what is waiting for us on the horizon…..will Donny jump or will calmer heads prevail?

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

The Shaky Ceasefire

Note:  I get juiced this morning early so I will be down for the count….chemo has that effect…..hopefully I will be at full strength come Saturday…..Have a good day.

It has been announced and it has been on unstable ground since that day…..but just for the FYI here are the points of each side….

US 15 Point Proposals Now

1) US will remove all sanctions on Iran

2) It will cease all threats to reimpose sanctions

3) Iran’s nuclear program will be frozen under a defined framework

4) US will assist Iran in developing a civilian nuclear project

5) There will be limit on enriched uranium to remain under supervision

6) US agrees to address the Iranian missile program at a later date

7) Iran’s nuclear program will be restricted to civilian purposes only

8) Iran will halt the development of existing nuclear facilities & capabilities

9) Iran will discontinue further expansion of enrichment capabilities

10) No production of weapons-grade nuclear material to occur on Iranian soil

11) Iran will hand over all enriched materials to the IAEA on an agreed timeline

12) Iran’s Natanz, Isfahan and Fordow nuclear facilities will be taken out of use

13) International monitoring and verification mechanisms

14) Implementations will be gradual and tied to compliance

15) Both sides to discuss additional regional and security issues

Then there is the counter from Iran….

Iran’s Current 10 Point Proposal

1) Guarantee that Iran will not be attacked again

2) Permanent end to the war, not just a ceasefire

3) End to Israeli strikes in Lebanon

4) Lifting of all sanctions on Iran

5) End to all regional fighting against Iranian allies

6) In return, Iran would open the Strait of Hormuz

7) Iran will determine the rules of safe passage through Hormuz

8) A Hormuz fee of $2 million per ship

9) Iran would split these fees with Oman

10) Iran to use Hormuz fees for reconstruction instead of reparations

Let’s pretend that this ceasefire holds…..who won?

So who’s winning, or has won, the Iran war thus far? Who’s losing?

Iran has agreed to a temporary ceasefire and to negotiate. But it will still run the Hormuz strait. It will collect fees. Higher global oil prices means it will make even more money from oil sales. That can buy a lot of Chinese radars and Russian anti-aircraft systems. The US will not control the Hormuz in any way. Iran will set the rules and control the strait, in cooperation with one or two friendlier Gulf states (Oman, maybe Qatar?)

Iran will replenish and accelerate production and development of its missiles and drone programs.

The Iran war—like the Ukraine war—means military power has changed radically. Surface ships are sitting ducks. Even 5th generation aircraft if they get too close. War is now about hypersonic missiles, autonomous weapons, massed drones in the air, on and under the water, low orbit satellites and surveillance—and of course economic destabilization.

The most important question remains: what will Israel do should US and Iran agree to a deal (or don’t)? Trump and the Iranians can agree to all they want. Israel will not necessarily abide by it (even if it says it will). When the dust settles, Israel will again try to find a way to lure America into its wars of expansion in the middle east.

(counterpunch.org)

Will this actually hold a peace in the region?

I think not for Israel does not want a peace for the region.

What say you?

Just FYI….Iran is claiming victory…..

US forces secured a “historic and overwhelming victory” over Iran, defense chief Pete Hegseth declared Wednesday, adding that “Iran proved utterly incapable of defending itself.” Iran, of course, begs to differ, with its national security council boasting that it delivered “an undeniable, historic, and crushing defeat” to its foes, per the Wall Street Journal. A Washington Post piece finds that behind the bluster, neither side is a “clear winner,” but the newspaper is among a number of outlets exploring why Tehran is maintaining victory. The short version: The regime survived, albeit after losing key figures; Iran tightened its grip on the Strait of Hormuz; and it still possesses a stockpile of highly enriched uranium, per Politico.

“What Iran did, systematically and deliberately, was hurt the US economy” by shutting down the strait and sending oil prices soaring, Alex Vatanka of the Middle East Institute tells the Journal. “They made sure the war was felt in the US,” he says, adding, “I don’t think Trump’s going to try that again.” And even after the ceasefire, Iran continues to maintain control over which ships are allowed to navigate the strait. “The implication: Iran is intent on using its newfound control over the flow of oil from the Persian Gulf as leverage over Trump as the Islamic Republic seeks to rebuild its power after the biggest threat to its survival in decades,” writes David S. Cloud of the Journal.

The Post, meanwhile, notes that crowds filled the streets of Tehran after the ceasefire announcement, triumphantly waving their nation’s flag, far from the “unconditional surrender” President Trump had previously demanded. Not that Iran emerged unscathed: In additon to the relentless bombing attacks from the US and Israel, it is now more isolated than ever in the region because of its attacks on neighboring nations. Still, as one Asian diplomat tells Politico of Hegseth’s threat to resume strikes if necessary, “Declaring victory by saying he will attack Iran some more seems like losing.”

What say you?

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

Just In The Nick Of Time

For about 5 weeks our little mash-up with Iran has been raging…..Donny has been ranting and his minions have been dutiful.

And as if a movie plot at the very stroke of midnight a ceasefire deal has been announced.

Iran says it has accepted a proposal for a two-week ceasefire, but the war will only be considered over if and when a final agreement is reached that aligns with every element of its 10-point plan. President Trump said Tuesday that he had suspended attacks on Iran for two weeks after receiving a “workable” proposal for Iran. According to Iranian state media, the plan calls for coordinated, controlled passage through the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian military oversight, a halt to military operations against Iran and its allied groups, and the withdrawal of US combat forces from all bases in the region, Reuters reports.

  • “It is emphasized that this does not signify the termination of the war,” Iran’s Supreme National Security Council said in a statement, per the AP. “Our hands remain upon the trigger, and should the slightest error be committed by the enemy, it shall be met with full force.”
  • Tehran is also demanding the lifting of all US sanctions—both primary and secondary—the release of frozen Iranian funds, and payment of “full compensation” to Iran. In a statement on X, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said, “For a period of two weeks, safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible via coordination with Iran’s Armed Forces and with due consideration of technical limitations.” Araghchi, who said he was making the announcement on behalf of the Supreme National Security Council, said Iran would halt military attacks as long as the country was not attacked, NBC News reports.

The deal has done what it was suppose to do….drop oil pricess….

Oil prices plunged and US stock futures jumped on Tuesday after President Trump held off on his threat of devastating attacks on Iran. Futures for US crude oil sank 18% to around $92.60, while Brent crude oil futures fell about 6% to $103.40, the AP reports. Both prices remain well above where they were at the start of the war. Futures for the S&P 500 rose 2.4% and Dow futures jumped 2.1%, more than 900 points, reports CNBC. Stock markets in Japan and South Korea also soared, while bitcoin rose more than 5%, the Wall Street Journal reports.

  • Late Tuesday, Trump said he was holding off on his threatened attacks on Iranian bridges, power plants and other civilian targets, subject to Tehran agreeing to a two-week ceasefire and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s Supreme National Security Council said it had accepted a two-week ceasefire and its foreign minister said passage through the strait would be allowed for the next two weeks under Iranian military management.
  • Oil prices have spiked because the war has snarled the production and transportation of crude in the Persian Gulf. Much of that oil exits the gulf through the Strait of Hormuz to reach customers around the world, but Iran has blocked it to enemies. A regional official, speaking on condition of anonymity, tells the AP that the two-week ceasefire plan includes allowing both Iran and Oman to charge fees on ships transiting through the strait. The official said Iran would use the money it raised for reconstruction. It wasn’t immediately clear what Oman would use its money for. The strait is in the territorial waters of both Oman and Iran. The world had previously considered the passage a toll-free international waterway.
  • About a fifth of the world’s oil transits the strait in peacetime. Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s foreign minister, wrote in a statement that: “For a period of two weeks, safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible via coordination with Iran’s Armed Forces and with due consideration of technical limitations.” Before the war, there were no “technical limitations,” the AP notes.

There is two weeks for a deal to end this stupidity once and for all.

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

 

A Babbling Mess

Dear Donny made a national speech on our war with Iran….it was a short speech (surprise….surprise) and as usual was a total waste of time….his and ours.

Presidents make these types of speeches reassure the nation….if that was his intention then like most things Donny it was a failure…..

President Trump said US forces will “finish the job” in Iran soon as “core strategic objectives are nearing completion,” offering a full-throated defense of the war Wednesday night in his first national address since the conflict began more than a month ago, the AP reports. He used his platform before a wide audience to tout the success of the US operations and argue that all of Washington’s objectives have so far been met or exceeded, but said Iran would continue to face a barrage of attacks in the short term. “We are going to hit them extremely hard over the next two to three weeks,” Trump said. “We’re going to bring them back to the Stone Ages, where they belong.” (Iran’s president issued a letter in advance of Trump’s speech.)

But Trump also spent much of an address that lasted just under 20 minutes repeating many things he had already said in recent weeks and providing few new details. The speech appeared unlikely to move the needle of public sentiment at a time when polling shows many Americans feel the US military has gone too far in Iran and as gas and oil prices remain high. A few notable things he didn’t say:

  • He didn’t mention the possibility of sending US ground troops into Iran.
  • Nor did he reference NATO, the trans-Atlantic alliance he has railed against for not helping the US secure the critical Strait of Hormuz, where a chokehold by Iran has sent energy prices soaring.
  • He also didn’t say anything about negotiations with Iran.
  • He didn’t bring up his April 6 deadline for Iran to reopen the waterway or face severe retaliation from the US.

Trump ticked through a timeline of past American involvement in conflicts and noted that the ongoing war in Iran had lasted just 32 days, seeming to appeal to the public for more time to achieve the mission. “World War I lasted one year, seven months, and five days,” he said. “World War II lasted for three years, eight months, and 25 days.” Trump also added references to Korea, Vietnam, and Iraq. He also noted that in “these past four weeks, our armed forces have delivered swift, decisive, overwhelming victories on the battlefield.” He said US military action had been “so powerful, so brilliant” that “one of the most powerful countries” is “really no longer a threat”—even as Iran kept up its attacks on Israel and Persian Gulf neighbors early Thursday.

So all he did was regurgitate all the crap he had spread for the past 5 weeks.

Then there is the reactions of Donny’s favorite part of his job…..the markets…..

Investors got a fresh reminder Wednesday that geopolitics often calls the shots on Wall Street, CNBC reports. US stock futures slid Wednesday night after President Trump signaled the conflict with Iran is likely to grind on, even as he again suggested an end may be near. S&P 500 futures fell roughly 0.8%, Nasdaq 100 futures about 1%, and Dow futures dropped more than 300 points. Asian stocks also fell, the AP reports. The moves came as Trump vowed to strike Tehran “extremely hard” and said the US would push Iran “back to the stone ages” over the next few weeks.

Markets reacted in real time: futures weakened during the speech while oil prices jumped, with US crude up nearly 4% above $103 a barrel and Brent up 5% past $106—a high point for oil prices in recent weeks, Forbes reports.

So all in all waste of time…..for him and for me…..

He really should study up on what these types of speeches are really for and not just to see his pasty mug on TV.

I Read, I Write, You KNow

“lego ergo scribo”

 

Looking For A Scapegoat

Donny’s war has helped drop his poll numbers to record levels….

President Donald Trump’s approval rating fell in recent days to its lowest point since he returned to the White House, hit by a surge ​in fuel prices and widespread disapproval of the war he launched on Iran, a Reuters/Ipsos poll found.
The four-day poll, completed on Monday, showed 36% of Americans approve of Trump’s ‌job performance, down from 40% in a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted last week.
(reuters.com)
With crappy polls and a defiant Iran Donny is scrambling to find someone to blame for his failure….he has already whacked Noem so he could he possibly blame for Iran?
And what better person to blame than Pistol Pete Hogsbreath?

President Trump is already trying to throw Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth under the bus for the fruitless war on Iran.

“I called Pete, I called General Caine, I called a lot of our great people … and I said, ‘Let’s talk. We got a problem in the Middle East. We have a country … that for 47 years has been a purveyor of terror. And they’re very close to having a nuclear weapon. We can keep going and get that 50,000 up to 55 and 60, there’s no end. Or we could take a stop and make a little journey into the Middle East, and eliminate a big problem,’” Trump said Monday at an event in Memphis.

“Pete, I think you were the first one to speak up,” Trump continued. “And you said, ‘Let’s do it.’ Because you can’t let them have a nuclear weapon.”

“Hegseth about to give his next briefing from under the bus,” liberal podcaster Jon Favreau wrote on X.

This quick comment is magnified by the chaos of Monday morning, which saw Trump announcing a five-day pause on bombing Iranian energy sites while claiming that he was close to a deal with the Iranian government. The Iranian government then denied speaking to him in any capacity at all, sparking rumors that Trump was engaging in market manipulation. And if the war is going as badly as it appears to be, Hegseth may be in trouble.

(newrepublic.com)

I cannot think of a better person for Donny to blame.

And the sooner we see the back of him the better the military will be.

Whatcha think?

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

Boots Are Made For Walking

The Iranian thing has been going on for 4 weeks or so and from what I see here on IST there is little interest on what Donny and his buddies in Israel are doing to the Middle East.

Awhile back Donny ordered 3000 Marines to the region and to be a stand-by and now he had ordered the 82nd Airborne, about 1000 troops, to be ready….

Approximately 1,000 US soldiers with the Army’s 82nd Airborne Division are expecting to deploy in coming days to the Middle East, according to two sources familiar with the matter, adding to the growing military firepower in the region as the Trump administration says it is in talks with Iran to end the conflict.

The contingent includes Maj. Gen. Brandon Tegtmeier, commander of the 82nd Airborne Division, and division staff, as well as a battalion of the 1st Brigade Combat Team which is currently acting as the division’s Immediate Response Force (IRF), the sources said. The initial elements of the division staff and battalion are expected to begin deploying within a week, one of the sources familiar said; other elements within the brigade are also expecting to deploy at a later date, though those expectations could change as the situation develops.

US officials approved written deployment orders late Tuesday, the second source familiar with the matter told CNN on Wednesday.

The brigade will be the “ready unit” in the Middle East, prepared to be called upon if needed, the source said. The 82nd Airborne Division made a similar movement in 2020 after the killing of Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani.

https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/24/politics/us-army-sending-troops-middle-east-iran

And few people noticed.

Is this the beginning of an escalation?

https://wegotthiscovered.com/news/american-boots-on-ground-imminent-in-iran-huge-deployment-arrives-in-middle-east-as-bloody-battle-looms/

What does it take to get Americans off their collective butts and care about what is being done?

Will the deaths of more American soldiers impress them enough to care?

These are the same people that feel it necessary to wish vets, ‘Thanks for your service’ whenever they are around.

When most of these people mean ‘glad it was you and not me’…..this saying is getting as offensive as the usual ‘thoughts and prayers’ after massive shooting.

I know that gas is expensive, food is expensive of Hell everything is expensive but that will not change even when Americans start dying…..it make things worse….but that matters not to some.

Everyday year I get a little more disappointed in my fellow Americans.

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

Donny Makes His Desire Known

The Iran conflict has been going on for about 4 weeks and we have heard all sorts of crap and now more stuff to ponder.

Donny has made his offer for this war to end…..

US officials said late Tuesday that Iran had been sent a 15-point plan to end the war, and Pakistani officials confirmed on Wednesday that Iran got it. The plan was submitted to Iran by intermediaries from the government of Pakistan, which has offered to host renewed negotiations between Washington and Tehran, a source tells the AP. More:

  • What the US seeks: The Wall Street Journal reports the proposal would reportedly require Tehran to dismantle its three main nuclear facilities, halt all uranium enrichment at home, freeze ballistic-missile development, ease support for regional proxies, and fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
  • What Iran would get: In exchange, Washington would lift nuclear-related sanctions and help oversee a civilian nuclear program.
  • Nothing new: The Journal reports the plan largely mirrors a prewar offer made by President Trump before the war began on Feb. 28. The Guardian’s sources paint it as even older, saying it’s based on a plan that was shared with Iran in late May 2025.
  • Tough prospects: In the AP’s view, any talks between the US and Iran would face monumental challenges. Many of Washington’s objectives, particularly over Iran’s ballistic missile and nuclear programs, remain difficult to achieve, and it is not clear who in Iran’s government has the authority or would be willing to negotiate.
  • Tough prospects II: Bloomberg sees a similarly uphill battle, reporting Tehran is “signaling little willingness to compromise.” Bloomberg flags a Wednesday comment from Iran’s armed forces to that end: “The level of your internal conflicts has reached the point where you are negotiating with yourselves,” the statement said, per state-run IRIB News.

Now Iran has given a response….

The Trump administration’s 15-point proposal for ending the war in Iran did not get a warm reception. The AP reports that Iran has rejected the plan, citing Iranian state television’s English-language broadcaster, which quoted an anonymous official. The Guardian reports the official characterized the asks as “excessive” and said “Iran will end the war when it decides to do so and when its own conditions are met.”

The Wall Street Journal offers a similar report, saying Iran’s information council—part of the government’s communications arm—dismissed the plan as a wish list of goals that hadn’t come to pass through the use of force. “Trump’s statements are false and should not be taken seriously,” it said.

But Reuters describes the door as not being fully shut; it quotes a senior Iranian official as saying the view on the proposal was “not positive” but that it is still being reviewed. Reuters separately reports that Pakistan, which delivered the proposal, is still waiting for a reply.

The Guardian adds that the senior political security official quoted on Press TV shared five conditions that Tehran seeks:

  • A stop to “aggression and assassinations.”
  • An end to the war on Iran and “all resistance groups” in the region.
  • “Concrete” guarantees of no future military action against Iran.
  • Reparations and war-damage payments.
  • Recognition of Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz.

Now the wait to see what late night BS Donny will send out over Truth Social (a name that sends shudders through my body).

Is this a place to start negotiations or just Donny whipping off some crap for the media?

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

Now It Is The Straight Of Hormuz

Dear Donny has said there will be a 5 day lull in the airstrikes on Iran…..why?  He announced that the US and Iran are in talks….(personally I think this was to appease his buddies on Wall Street)….

President Trump on Monday extended his deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to international shipping, saying the US would hold off on strikes against Iranian power plants for five days, per the AP. Dow futures jumped 1,000 points, and crude prices fell on the news, reports CNBC. Trump made the announcement on Truth Social hours ahead of his self-imposed deadline later in the day. Writing in all-caps, he said the US and Iran have had “very good and productive conversations” that could yield “a complete and total resolution” in the war. Talks would continue “throughout the week,” he said.

Trump added that the suspension of his threat to attack power plants was “subject to the success of the ongoing meetings and discussions.” Trump did not elaborate on the negotiations that had taken place. Iran did not immediately acknowledge any talks between the countries, but Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi did say he spoke by phone with his Turkish counterpart, Hakan Fidan. Turkey has been an intermediary before in negotiations between Tehran and Washington.

No details just Donny’s worthless word of talks….and the markets went berserk up 10000 points(go figure)

And then Iran weighed in…..

A cautious relief swept through financial markets Monday after President Trump said the United States has talked with Iran about a possible end to the war. Oil prices eased, and stock prices rose on Wall Street following severe losses taken elsewhere in the world before Trump’s announcement.

  • The S&P 500 rose 74.52 points, or 1.1%, to 6,581.00.
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 631 points, or 1.4%, to 46,208.47.
  • The Nasdaq composite rose 299.15 points, or 1.4%, to 21,946.76.

The price for a barrel of Brent crude fell 10.9% to settle at $99.94, down from nearly $120 at one point last week, after Trump said the United States and Iran held productive talks the last two days “regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East,” the AP reports. The market’s moves were tentative, though, after Iran denied such talks took place and Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf said in a post on X that fake news “is used to manipulate the financial and oil markets.”

The Dow went from a surge of nearly 1,135 points during the morning to a much more modest gain. Over the weekend, Trump had threatened to “obliterate” Iran’s power plants if it doesn’t open up the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours. Trump said Monday that he is postponing attacks on Iranian power plants for five days to allow talks to continue. Quickly afterward, though, came the denials from Iran about talks, while Iran’s semiofficial Fars and Tasnim news agencies portrayed the American president as backing down. Turkey and Egypt, meanwhile, said they had spoken to the warring parties, the first sign of coordinated mediation, which could be an encouraging signal.

  • The price of Brent crude fell as low as $96 immediately after Trump announced the postponement but quickly recovered a chunk of that loss. Benchmark US crude had a similar reaction, immediately dropping toward $84 per barrel before yo-yoing back above $92 and then settling at $88.13, down 10.3% from Friday.

On Wall Street, companies with big fuel bills that will benefit from any easing of oil prices led the market. Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings surged 6.2%, while United Airlines climbed 4.5%, and American Airlines rose 3.6%. All, though, are still down for the year so far. Stocks of smaller companies were also particularly strong, and the Russell 2000 index of smaller stocks jumped a market-leading 2.3%. It had dropped last week to 10% below its record, a sharp enough fall that professional investors have a name for it: a “correction.”

In Europe, stock indexes immediately flipped from losses to gains following Trump’s announcement. France’s CAC 40 rose 0.8%, and Germany’s DAX returned 1.2%. That compares with sharp drops for Asian stock markets, which finished trading before Trump made his announcement. South Korea’s Kospi careened 6.5% lower, Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped 3.5%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 3.5%.

All this after Donny made the statement that if the Straight was not fully functioning in 48 hours there would be consequences….

Iran is warning it will choke off one of the world’s most important oil routes if the US follows through on a new threat, CNN reports. The country’s armed forces headquarters said Sunday it is prepared to shut the Strait of Hormuz “completely” and for an indefinite period if US President Trump orders strikes on Iranian power plants. The statement came a day after Trump said he would direct attacks on Iran’s power infrastructure if the narrow waterway—through which a significant share of global oil shipments passes—is not fully reopened to shipping within 48 hours

Iran’s military said the strait would remain closed until any damaged plants are restored, and broadened its warning beyond the US. It threatened to hit Israeli energy and communications networks, referring to Israel as an “occupying regime,” per the AP, as well as “similar companies in the region with US shareholders.” Power plants in countries that host American bases “will be legitimate targets for us,” the headquarters said. Early Monday, Israel launched new attacks against Iran, the AP reports, and the top leader of the US military’s Central Command described the joint campaign against Iran as “ahead or on plan.” Meanwhile, Trump spoke to UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer about the need to see the Strait of Hormuz reopened in a late-night call Sunday, CNN reports.

Is Donny trying to dodge another bullet?

Meanwhile those talks that Donny pounced on……

World markets remained in an upbeat mood on Monday after President Trump postponed a major escalation of the Iran war and said the two sides were engaged in “productive” talks to end the conflict. Much uncertainty remained about those talks. Coverage:

  • Trump said son-in-law Jared Kushner and envoy Steve Witkoff were leading the US negotiations with a “respected” Iranian leader, reports the AP. He did not say who that leader is, adding that it would be dangerous for the man to be identified, though he specified that Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei was not involved.
  • Axios, quoting an Israeli official, reports the Iranian figure might be the speaker of the Iranian parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. However, Ghalibaf wrote on X that “no negotiations have been held with the US, and fakenews is used to manipulate the financial and oil markets and escape the quagmire in which the US and Israel are trapped.”
  • The New York Times reports that Iran, “at least publicly,” is denying any progress. The nation’s Fars News Agency quotes an unnamed senior Iranian official who said much the same as Ghalibaf: “Trump backed down from attacking critical infrastructure as Iran’s military threats became credible,” he said, per the Hill. “Financial market pressure and the threat of bonds within the US and the West have increased, and this has been another important factor in this retreat.”

A ‘respected leader’……who would that be?    Some rug salesman in Southern California?

This is all so much con….period!

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

War With Iran–Week 4

Well Donny has gotten us into this war with little forethought….these are a couple of scenarios that explains several aspects of this conflict.

So many people have asked where and why did this begin.

A whole bunch of information but it is needed if one wants to try and understand the idiocy behind this war.  Please read and educate yourself.

Donald Trump, in all his hubris and idiocy, and in response to Israel’s Bibi Netanyahu, launched an illegal and unconstitutional war on Iran beginning on February 28, 2026. It was not provoked by Iran, and it clearly was not well planned for by the United States or Israel.

Trump, who has suffered from delusions of adequacy throughout his political career, had certainly gotten full of himself. Thinking he had been elected “God,” not to the presidency, he has been asserting US power around the world blatantly; he’s not even lying about it. His attack on Venezuela went extremely well for him, capturing the president, Nicolas Maduro and his wife and political leader on her own account, Celia Flores, without any US casualties. (And obviously not worried about the Cuban and Venezuelans his invading force killed.) Hey, isn’t this fun!

https://znetwork.org/znetarticle/the-idiocy-of-donald-trumps-war-on-iran/

Little Donny is losing control of the Persian Gulf, a major oil traffic area…..

Donald Trump’s demand for US allies to send warships to defend against Iranian attacks in the strategic Strait of Hormuz risks a catastrophic miscalculation that pulls in more countries to his already spiralling war.

Any naval deployment to escort ships through the Strait risks them being targeted by drone and missile launchers at very close range along the Iranian shore, experts have said.

The US President has threatened his Nato allies with a warning that the alliance faced a “very bad future” unless they helped in the “small endeavour” of sending warships to help open the vital shipping lane, where Iran has been targeting shipping, sending global oil markets into chaos.

Trump has called on nations, including Britain, France, China, Japan, and South Korea, in particular, to help the US secure the Strait, warning that he would “remember” if they did not.

Trump is losing control in the Gulf. A terrifying scenario could now play out

Stupid is as stupid does.

What can be said about Trump’s war with Iran that isn’t already abundantly obvious? The answer: not much. It is not going well, and it probably won’t end well. But having spent time in the salt mines of Trump punditry, I can tell you that we’re going to endure a difficult round of think pieces purporting to explain How This Happened. So maybe this is the best time to assert the obvious, using my favored rubric of Trump analysis: Imagine if the dumbest person in the world and humanity’s biggest asshole were the same person, and that guy was president. Then imagine he started a war with Iran. Now check the news. One look, and here’s what you should be thinking: “Yep, that tracks.”

As with all of Trump’s presidential exploits, success is always constrained by two factors: The aforementioned sharp limitations of his intellectual capabilities and the fact that he is perpetually surrounded by an inner circle made up of clowns somewhere on the spectrum between “rampantly evil” and “thoroughgoing dipshit.”

https://newrepublic.com/post/207989/trump-war-iran-cause-stupidity

This war is far from over…..Donny has sent more and  more troops into the area….think back to the 1980s and the Iraq-Iran War…..this should give us an idea of what is to come…..

The United States and Israel’s war on Iran is about to escalate with no exit strategy in sight.

Several factors are pushing the combatants toward escalation:

  • US President Donald Trump cannot credibly declare victory and an end to the war as long as Iran controls passage through the strategic Strait of Hormuz.
  • Israel signalled its intent to emasculate Iran militarily and economically for years to come with this week’s assassination of five top Iranian officials and an attack on the Islamic Republic’s South Pars gas field.
  • Iran, determined to prolong the war in the belief that it has the longest breath and ability to absorb body blows, has vowed to retaliate for the Israeli actions in ways that inevitably will spark an escalation of the hostilities.

Israel has long pursued a decapitation strategy against Hamas, the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) until the 1990s, Lebanon’s Iran-backed Shiite militia Hezbollah, and Iranian nuclear scientists, in the faulty assumption that eliminating leadership would destroy groups or, in Iran’s case, the country’s nuclear program.

The strategy has yet to produce a success despite Israel’s ability to kill those it marks for assassination.

The Iran War Is About To Escalate

So many people are confused just why the US felt it necessary to engage with Iran…..the simple truth is…..

Trump administration’s solution, as explained by Rubio, was simply to acquiesce to Israel and join a deadly war of choice against Iran that is predictably sowing chaos in the region, killing Iranian civilians, and promising, much like George W. Bush’s ill-fated Iraq War, quick regime change to a US- and Israel-friendly democracy.
The real goals of Trump’s war cannot be found in his strategic vision, which is overshadowed, if it even exists, by a pinwheeling embrace of postures that serve his vanity and his short-term political interests. While most combat operations have been undertaken by the US military, at considerable risk to US service members and costs borne by American taxpayers, the war was born, planned, and insisted upon by Israel, and its long-serving Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
“I have tried to persuade successive American administrations to take firm action [against Iran], and President Trump did,” Netanyahu told Fox News, acknowledging his own efforts to push the US into yet another war in the Middle East. Netanyahu famously overpromises what US interventions will achieve. In 2002 he told Congress, “If you take out Saddam, Saddam’s regime, I guarantee you that it will have enormous positive reverberations on the region.”
And there is the simple answer….

I know this was a lot to take in but if you are truly concerned it was worth the time to learn.

This conflict has the chance of becoming very messy and very long…..

I will watch and write…..

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

How To Mend A Broken War

Donny has been trying to get our attention away from his failed war that Israel conned him into fighting….but so far he has done a terrible job of doing so.

There have been many articles written about how the US could end this war and few are very pleasant…..but then I read an op-ed by Kristof…..

Nicholas Kristof sees the Iran war as a major miscalculation by President Trump, and he warns in a New York Times opinion piece that things could get far worse if Trump doubles down instead of finding a way out. What to do? “His least-bad option, I believe, is to do roughly what he did when he bungled policy toward China and Yemen last year,” writes Kristof. “In each case he boldly declared victory and then frantically negotiated. The United States ended up the loser, particularly vis-à-vis China, but at least the storms calmed.”

The same could happen here, he writes. After declaring that his war aims have been achieved, Trump should press Israel to stand down and quietly seek a negotiated pause in Iran’s nuclear work in exchange for some sanctions relief. “I don’t know if a deal is possible, and it would require immense finesse,” writes Kristof. “But Iran does need revenue and investment, and a reduction in sanctions would be very appealing.” Let everyone declare victory, he advises, because “intensifying and lengthening this war would leave everyone a loser.”

Read the full piece.

To me this idea has Donny written all over it.  He could declare himself the winner and start doing his ‘stable genius’ crap and negotiate.

Then what would Iran do?

After the violation by Israel and the US would they be willing to saddle up with the US?

Then there is Israel…..could Donny con them into stop their blood lust long enough to find a solution.

Like I said the idea sounds good but there are so many moving parts that Donny may have a hard time keeping up.

Any thoughts of this possibility?

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego erego scribo”