Tag: Geopolitics

Is It An Assassination?

The recent assassination of an Iranian scientist made me think about the term and the use of the policy by the US (and yes I know the latest assassination was carried out by Israel…get over it)…..I have written about this policy before….https://lobotero.com/2017/05/19/is-assassination-by-another-name-the-same/

It all began with Pres. Ford in 1976…..

Executive Order 11905, executive order issued February 19, 1976, by U.S. President Gerald Ford, which prohibited any member of the U.S. government from engaging or conspiring to engage in any political assassination anywhere in the world. Promulgated in the wake of revelations that the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) had attempted to assassinate Cuban leader Fidel Castro in the 1960s, it was the first executive order to ban assassinations. It was successively superseded by Executive Order 12036 (issued by President Jimmy Carter on January 26, 1978) and Executive Order 12333 (issued by President Ronald Reagan on December 4, 1981), both of which affirmed the ban in the same language, which differed only slightly from that of Ford’s order.

Because none of the three orders defined the term assassination, the scope of the prohibition has been variously interpreted, some interpretations implying that it is operative only during peacetime. That reading was supported by Ford’s Special Message to the Congress, which accompanied his executive order, in which he stated that he would “support legislation making it a crime to assassinate or attempt or conspire to assassinate a foreign official in peacetime.” It is worth noting that only Ford’s order referred to “political assassination,” whereas Carter’s and Reagan’s used the term assassination only. It is unclear whether that change in language indicated any change in the scope of the ban.

https://www.britannica.com/event/Executive-Order-11905

Since none of the EOs defined what an assassination is…..I will step forward and do it for you…..

The official definition is…”the act of assassinating someone”…..vague huh?

Then how about assassinate?  It is a verb….to kill suddenly or secretively, especially a politically prominent person; murder premeditatedly and treacherously.

Now you have a grasp at what the definition of the term/s means……we shall continue…..

I bring all this up to help my reader understand that the US and its allies have sunk into the realm of gangsterism with their assassinations of people…..it has become one of the US major foreign policy situations…..

“Targeted killings” on an individual or mass basis may appear to be a way of tipping the balance towards whatever country has decided to go into the assassination business. The killing of Yitzhak Rabin did matter for the future of the Israelis and the Palestinians, but this was the act of a single fanatic and not of a government. Few other assassinations in the Middle East have had much long-term impact, contrary to the cinematic view of a world where Mr Bigs, like Goldfinger or Dr No, are evil masterminds whose elimination will make a difference. In the real world, figures like Fakhrizadeh and Soleimani can always be replaced.

Generals and politicians once imagined that campaigns to kill the local leaders of insurgencies in Afghanistan and Iraq would open the door to victory. But they found that “night raids” enraged local communities and dead leaders were swiftly replaced by angrier and more aggressive substitutes. One such campaign in Iraq led to a sharp jump in attacks on American forces. State-sponsored assassinations employ the methods of gangsterism and discredit and delegitimise those who use them.

Gangsterism as Foreign Policy: Assassinations are Becoming the New Norm

My opinion the state-sponsored murder is not lawful and should be  referred to the International court……there should be NO justification of wanton murder…..and there are those laws that should prevail…..

Murder is not justifiable…..

Murder is not morally justifiable. Self-defense may be argued if the victim has knowledge which may destroy the resistance organization if divulged. Assassination of persons responsible for atrocities or reprisals may be regarded as just puni shment. Killing a political leader whose burgeoning career is a clear and present danger to the cause of freedom may be held necessary.

https://nsarchive2.gwu.edu/NSAEBB/NSAEBB4/ciaguat2.html

There are those, like me, that want some form of legal action…..

https://digitalcommons.law.yale.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1601&context=yjil

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Is There A Conflict Countdown?

In the last few years there seems to be a ever perpetuating story that our next “big” war will be with China…..it all started with Obama, at least in the media and gained ground with Trump and now with the incoming president Biden…..the military has been feeding this scenario as well as the intel community…..

And now a top military commander is throwing fuel on the war fire….

America’s military priority in the coming years? China, China, and China—or so says the top US military commander. Speaking at a Wall Street Journal summit Tuesday, Army Gen. Mark Milley said China is aiming to equal America’s military might by 2035 and be ready to win a war against the US by midcentury. “They are on a path to try to do that,” Milley said. “It is certainly a significant security challenge for the United States now and in the years to come.” He added that the “great-power competition” between China and the US should not “turn into a great-power war. That would be a disaster.” Seapower Magazine quotes him as saying the Pentagon can offset Chinese power—and in theory, avoid a war—with a “consistent, predictable” budget boost of roughly 3% to 5%.

But Milley isn’t hopeful: “I don’t see that as a realistic thing in the coming year,” he said. In fact, he foresees Pentagon budget cuts, and favors modernizing forces over keeping current forces up to snuff, mostly to offset a rising China, per ABC News. He also suggested making certain international troop placements—like those in Bahrain or South Korea—rotational or “selective,” in part because such permanent bases reflect an outdated strategy: “I think that is something that needs a hard, hard look,” he said. “Much of that is a derivative of where World War II ended.” He also feared that US noncombatants, like family members, could get trapped if war breaks out between the Koreas. “I have a problem with that,” he said.

Trump’s DNI had thrown fuel on the fire awhile back…..

The nation’s top intelligence official just unloaded on China in unusual fashion. “The People’s Republic of China poses the greatest threat to America today, and the greatest threat to democracy and freedom worldwide since World War II,” writes director of national intelligence John Ratcliffe in a Wall Street Journal op-ed. Beijing’s leaders, he asserts, aim to dominate the US and the rest of the world on everything from the military to the economy to technology, and they are “preparing for an open-ended period of confrontation with the US.” China, he adds, “should be America’s primary national security focus going forward.”

  • Rarity: It is “exceedingly rare for the head of the US intelligence community to make public accusations about a rival power,” writes Mike Allen at Axios. Such assessments are typically made to the president and lawmakers behind closed doors.
  • Why? It’s seen as part of a push by the Trump administration to ramp up the case against China before President Trump leaves office. As Bloomberg puts it, the administration wants to “lock in its policies and posture toward China” and make it more difficult for Joe Biden to unwind them. The Hill notes that US-China relations have soured on a number of fronts, including over COVID, trade, and the South China Sea.

Biden is no different…he also wants to keep this storyline active (at least for now)……

  • What Biden says: In an interview with the New York Times, Biden says he has no plans to immediately loosen tariffs put into place by Trump. First, he wants to consult with other nations. “The best China strategy, I think, is one which gets every one of our—or at least what used to be our—allies on the same page,” he says. “It’s going to be a major priority for me in the opening weeks of my presidency.”
  • No leverage: Biden also told the Times that dealing with China requires leverage, and “in my view, we don’t have it yet.” He says his goal will “be to pursue trade policies that actually produce progress on China’s abusive practices—that’s stealing intellectual property, dumping products, illegal subsidies to corporations,” etc.
  • Assessment: Biden’s comments suggest that he “is focused on picking his spots with Beijing, shoring up alliances and US national power first, rather than rushing to accommodate a Chinese government that seems to think the burden for detente lies entirely with Washington,” writes David Wertime at Politico. “Friends and allies concerned about a US over-correction on China must be feeling some relief.”

I wrote in the past about the possibilities of the next war…….https://lobotero.com/2020/09/22/could-the-us-lose-the-next-big-war/

The next question should be…..could the US win the next ‘big’ war without the use of nukes?

Any sensible discussion of what a hypothetical World War III might look like needs to begin with the sheer size and force of America’s military assets. For all that China and Russia are arming up on various measures, US commanders have the power to dominate escalating crises and counter opposing forces before they can be used.

Take missile warfare alone. The US Navy already has 4,000 Tomahawk cruise missiles, and the Navy and Air Force are currently taking delivery of 5,000 JASSM conventional cruise missiles with ranges from 200-600 miles. Barely visible to radar, these are designed to destroy “hardened” targets such as nuclear missile silos. Russia and China, by contrast, have nothing of equivalent quantity or quality with which to threaten the US mainland.

https://theconversation.com/could-the-us-win-world-war-iii-without-using-nuclear-weapons-94771

Will the China bashing continue with the new president?

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Peace Through Bribery?

I am a cheer leader for diplomacy…I feel that negotiations is far superior than the use of force….but Trump’s idea of diplomacy is that of bribery…..especially when it comes to the state of Israel.

For 60+ years no Arab nation has been on good terms with Israel….and for damn near 100 years the Israelis have been abusing the Palestinians whose land they stole to set up some kingdom in the Middle East.

Enter Trump and his brand of silly diplomacy…..the Saudis get nuke technology if they recognize and formalize relations with Israel….then the UAE gets advanced weaponry to do the same….now Morocco has decided to deal with Israel but only after the Trump admin sends them advanced drones.

Not only do the Moroccans get advanced weaponry but the US will recognize their claim to the Western Sahara….

Reuters cited three anonymous US officials who did not indicate whether the sale was related to the normalization agreement or not. But the UAE is preparing to purchase a $23 billion weapons package as its reward for opening ties with Israel, so advanced military equipment is clearly on the table for Arab countries who take the step to normalize.

The sources said the sale to Morocco would consist of four MQ-9B SeaGuardian drones made by General Atomics with a range of 6,000 nautical miles that can significantly boost Rabat’s surveillance capabilities. While the SeaGuardians can carry a payload, it’s not clear if they will be sold armed.

One of the sources said Congress could be notified of the potential sale as early as Friday. Congress could potentially block the deal, but the source said that is not expected. On Thursday, the Senate failed to pass resolutions that aimed to stop the UAE weapons sales.

As a reward for agreeing to normalize with Israel, the US recognized Morocco’s sovereignty over Western Sahara. Morocco annexed the territory after the Spanish withdrew from the region in 1975. Rabat then fought a war with the Polisario Front, a group that represents the indigenous Sahrawi people, to control the territory until a ceasefire was reached in 1991.

(antiwar.com)

The Polisario Front declared the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR) in 1976, a de facto state in Western Sahara. The SADR is a member of the African Union and maintains diplomatic relations with about 40 UN member states. Currently, the SADR controls about 20 percent of Western Sahara, and Morocco controls the rest. The UN recognizes neither the SADR nor Moroccan sovereignty over the region.

In a deal brokered by United States President Donald Trump’s outgoing administration, Morocco became the latest Arab country to normalise ties with Israel.

As part of the agreement announced on Thursday, Trump agreed to recognise Morocco’s sovereignty over the disputed territory of Western Sahara, where there has been a decades-old dispute with Morocco pitted against the Polisario Front.

The Algeria-backed breakaway movement Polisario Front seeks to establish an independent state in the region.

Western Sahara has been on the United Nations list of non-self-governing territories, a stance also taken by the African Union, the International Court of Justice (ICJ), as well as the European Union.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/12/11/western-sahara-conflict-in-500-words

Once again the US NO LONGER stands for democracy and the right of self-determination.

I have given my thoughts many times on the situation in Western Sahara…..for further information please read….

Where Is Western Sahara?

Western Sahara And The Sahrawi

Western Sahara Update

This is just the opposite of what diplomacy is meant to accomplish…..these decisions will increase the possibility of more and more violence.

Hopefully a new admin will turn back the stupidity of the Trump days…..I doubt it but I can hope.

https://www.britannica.com/place/Western-Sahara

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Warmongers Press

After the assassination of the Iranian scientist I have been saying and writing that it was all an attempt to get Trump to start a war with Iran.

For at least 20 years Israel has been lying about Iran’s search for nukes….some times they are months away and others they are a few years away….in other words there is NO consistency t the accusations.

Israel has wanted the US to solve their Iranian problem for decades….so they take small steps to try and push a reaction by Iran that would justify an all out attack.

As time has elapsed since the killing of Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh on 27 November, the chances for quick retaliation are fading away.

After the assassination, in an operation east of Tehran attributed to Israel’s Mossad, senior Iranian leaders have used harsh language to promise revenge, not only against Israel but also the United States and Israel’s new allies in the region, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates.

Among those vowing retribution were President Hassan Rouhani and military confidants of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, including former Defence Minister Ahmad Wahidi.

But the inflammatory rhetoric subdsided. Gut feelings made room for cool-headed decisions. The first question to be asked is, why? Why did Israel decide to kill him?

https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/iran-scientist-killing-israel-lure-war-failed

Warmongers who have the president’s ear like Cotton and other diehard war enthusiast they keep pushing as well…..

Since Iranian scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh was killed in an apparent Israeli plot, the US and Israel have been warning about threats in the region. Despite Iran’s clear desire to make it to January 20th without a military confrontation with the US, anonymous officials are hyping the threat of Iranian retaliation for Fakhrizadeh’s death.

On Monday, an anonymous US official told The Associated Press that Washington fears Iran may take advantage of US troop drawdowns in Iraq and Afghanistan. For this reason, the official said the US might have to hold off on the planned departure of the aircraft carrier USS Nimitz from the Persian Gulf.

In September, the Nimitz was deployed to the Persian Gulf to send a message to Iran. The US official said the ship must remain in the region “for some time to come.” The official added that an additional fighter squadron might be sent to the Middle East. The US recently deployed B-52 bombers to the region and moved a fleet of F-16 fighter jets from Germany to the UAE.

US and Its Allies Stoking Fears of Possible Iranian Attacks

So the question is….will Trump take the bait and help Israel and start a new endless war?

What are the chances?

Following his election loss Donald Trump reportedly sought options to strike Iran. The president’s senior advisors dissuaded him from doing so, though it’s unclear if he settled on a different option. Then, on 17 November, both Israel and Saudi Arabia reinforced their agreed message that that Iran can never possess nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities. Netanyahu spoke to Biden by phone about Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif’s repeated offer that Iran was willing to return to the 2015 nuclear deal, which was negotiating during the Obama-Biden administration. At that point, nothing appeared out of the ordinary when it came to Iran. There also appeared to be a coalescence of interests between Trump (for his remaining days in office), Israel and Saudi Arabia against Iran.

Opinion – Is the Next Middle East War on the Horizon?

Will there be a 2021 surprise?

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Who Really Won In South Caucasus?

The war that most Americans are clueless was fought between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the south Caucasus region……while we Americans were fixated on the election people were dying in an old hatred….

First where is this problem region?

Experts: Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict Is Christian Genocide Under the Pretext of War| National Catholic Register
Big disclosure: Pakistani army fighting on behalf of Azerbaijan in the war against Armenia

To explain the feelings and desires of the region…..

I will let others trying to fill in the blanks for my readers…..

https://youtu.be/kHCvXr-CCzM

For now the fighting has ceased and a ceasefire is in place……

https://youtu.be/byFgkaaSL2o

Troops from Azerbaijan have begun occupying some of the disputed territory….

Azerbaijan said Friday its troops had entered a district bordering Nagorno Karabakh handed back by Armenian separatists after almost 30 years as part of a Russian-brokered peace deal to end weeks of brutal fighting in the region.

Troops moved into the district of Aghdam, one of three due to be handed back, the Azerbaijan defense ministry said, a day after columns of Armenian soldiers and tanks rolled out of the territory.

Armenia will also hand over the Kalbajar district wedged between Nagorno Karabakh and Armenia on November 25 and the Lachin district by December 1.

On Thursday Armenian residents of Aghdam hurriedly picked pomegranates and persimmons from trees surrounding their homes and packed vans with furniture, before fleeing ahead of the official deadline to cede the mountainous province.

Azerbaijan Troops Enter First District Handed Over by Armenia

Hopefully the ceasefire holds and no more people have to die…..

But most Americans will want to know who won the war.  It is an American obsession to put everything into wins or losses…..

My thought is that the outside instigators actually won not those fighting and dying…..Turkey/Russia comes to mind…..

Turkey’s intervention in September with military advisers, precision drones and Syrian mercenaries allowed Azerbaijan to wrest back all its territories occupied by Armenia for almost three decades in six bloody weeks. The country’s strongman President Ilham Aliyev has been given a big boost. Turkish hard power has shifted the balance in the south Caucasus, much as it’s done in Syria and Libya. Yet Moscow, which sat on its hands through much of the conflict, is seen by many as the real winner. Is it?

Defeat has been cruel and humiliating for Armenia. Its leaders are being assailed by a furious public as traitors. Its lost at least 1,500 soldiers, with an unstated number missing, a sizable portion of its military kit and all the land it hoped to barter for a future deal that would have given Armenian-majority Nagorno-Karabakh the right to self-determination — read: union with Armenia. A nine-point cease-fire deal brokered by the Kremlin that took effect on Tuesday effectively salvaged Armenian control over around 70% of Nagorno-Karabakh proper. Around 2,000 Russian peace keepers will be deployed in and around the enclave, spelling a return of Russian forces to Azerbaijan as well. Russia’s stranglehold over Armenia is near complete, its leverage over Azerbaijan arguably greater, to the extent that it can re-ignite hostilities.
 
I have a follower from Armenia and I hope to get her in-put into this situation….
 
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America’s First Foreign Policy Dilemma

College of Political Knowledge

I studied international relations in college and along with that I took several courses about the history of American foreign policy.

I thought I would try to get back into the swing of posting on our foreign policy history while the country prepares for the election in November.

After the War and the country coming together to form the United States of America what was the first dilemma the country had to face with our foreign policy….what did Washington do?

The first problem has been called the “Citizen Genet Affair”.

During 1793 and 1794, a series of explosive controversies divided followers of Hamilton and Jefferson. Washington’s administration confronted a French effort to entangle the United States in its war with England, armed rebellion in western Pennsylvania, Indian resistance, and the threat of war with Britain. These controversies intensified party spirit and increased voting along party lines in Congress.

In April 1793, “Citizen” Edmond Charles Genet (1763-1834), a French minister, arrived in the United States and passed out letters authorizing Americans to attack British commercial vessels and Spanish New Orleans. Washington regarded these actions as a clear violation of American neutrality and demanded that France recall its minister. The Genet affair did have an important effect–it intensified party feeling. From Vermont to South Carolina citizens organized Democratic-Republican clubs to celebrate the triumphs of the French Revolution. Hamilton and his supporters suspected that these societies really existed to stir up grass-roots opposition to the Washington administration.

American foreign policy in the 1790s was dominated by the events surrounding the French Revolution. Following the overthrow of the monarchy in 1792, the revolutionary French Government clashed with the monarchies of Spain and Great Britain. French policymakers needed the United States to help defend France’s colonies in the Caribbean – either as a neutral supplier or as a military ally, and so they dispatched Edmond Charles Genêt, an experienced diplomat, as minister to the United States. The French assigned Genêt several additional duties: to obtain advance payments on debts that the U.S. owed to France, to negotiate a commercial treaty between the United States and France, and to implement portions of the 1778 Franco-American treaty which allowed attacks on British merchant shipping using ships based in American ports. Genêt’s attempt to carry out his instructions would bring him into direct conflict with the U.S. Government.

https://history.state.gov/milestones/1784-1800/citizen-genet

Just a small note:  The State Department use to keep a data file with updates to our foreign policies and its history…..under the Obama admin it was decided to stop keeping the historical record….a shame in my opinion for it was an excellent source.

Here is the notice…..

This publication, “Milestones in the History of U.S. Foreign Relations,” has been retired. The text remains online for reference purposes, but it is no longer being maintained or expanded.

Why retire “Milestones”? In mid-2016 the Office of the Historian completed a review of its online offerings and concluded that extensive resources would be needed to revise and expand this publication to meet the Office’s standards for accuracy and comprehensiveness. At the same time, the events described in the “Milestones” essays are amply covered by numerous respected secondary sources. Rather than duplicate these efforts, the Office of the Historian has decided to focus its resources on areas where it is uniquely suited to make a contribution, such as coverage of the Department of State’s institutional history. In keeping with the publication’s new status, it can now be found under “More Resources” in the site-wide menu.

Notice posted on May 9, 2017.

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Pandemic Board Game

We all are well aware just how catastrophic this Covid-19 has been on the world……in the US the totals so far…..Cases–11+ million…..Deaths–

This is the weekend and for those that are still in isolation…..maybe playing board games…..

This game is from 2017 and is very telling…..

A game?

2020, for reasons we don’t have to specify, has seen a big resurgence in pandemic-themed entertainment. Films like Outbreak and Contagion have found new life, as has anything else that depicted a viral pandemic in a fictional context. This includes board games. Specifically, we’re talking about this Pandemic board game from Z-Man Games. It’s only a few years old, but it’s newly relevant, thanks to, uh, current events.

Everyone in the world’s now learning the hard way how important it is for governments to be prepared for the possibility of a global pandemic. But players of Pandemicalready knew this. That’s because the game is all about letting players cooperate as members of a team, devoted to fighting worldwide outbreaks. Here’s the official synopsis of what the game is all about:

“Four diseases have broken out in the world and it is up to a team of specialists in various fields to find cures for these diseases before mankind is wiped out. Players must work together playing to their characters’ strengths and planning their strategy of eradication before the diseases overwhelm the world with ever-increasing outbreaks. For example the operation specialist can build research stations which are needed to find cures for the diseases. The Scientist needs only 4 cards of a particular disease to cure it instead of the normal 5. But the diseases are outbreaking fast and time is running out: The team must try to stem the tide of infection in diseased areas while also towards cures. A truly cooperative game where you all win or you all lose.”

https://futurism.com/pandemic-board-game

Even a dunce could have found a  way to defeat this disease but not our fearless leader….he was too busy being a douche to protect the people and find a cure….

Be well….Be Safe….

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Could There Be An Iran Surprise?

All the rhetoric around Iran has come to a head…..and the possibility of a war with Iran before Donald the Orange leaves office (or is forced out)…..

A source told The Washington Post if an American is killed and it can be ‘tied back to instructions from Iran’ it would spark immediate US response

A report from The New York Times that said President Trump considered attacking an Iranian nuclear facility raised fears of a possible US strike on Iran before January 20th. An official familiar with the meeting told The Washington Post that while a preemptive strike on Iran’s nuclear program was off the table, President Trump is ready to respond to attacks in the region that can be tied to Iran.

According to the official, Trump emphasized that any killing of an American that can be “tied back to instructions from Iran” will spark an immediate US response. The official said the president was “very forceful” and that if Iranians kill Americans, the US response will be swift and painful.

The Post story came after rockets fell inside Baghdad’s Green Zone, where the US embassy is located. No casualties were reported near the US embassy, but the Iraqi Army said rockets landed outside of the Green Zone, killing a child and injuring five civilians. The Post said the rockets were “apparently fired by an Iranian-backed Iraqi militia,” although it is not yet clear who is responsible.

President Trump Sets Tripwire For Attack on Iran

After years of threatening could this be the tripwire that plunges the US into yet another war…..just to make Israel happy?

If this occurs it will be disastrous and probably very bloody….are we prepared for more death and destruction?

Could the surprise be waiting for a new president?

Iran’s current parliament, judicial system and the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) are controlled by the conservatives, the main political faction that opposed the 2015 nuclear deal between Tehran and world powers.

However, conservatives, who are gearing up for Iran’s own presidential elections in 2021, have signalled for the first time their readiness to sit at the negotiation table with Washington.

Iranian hardline politician Hamidreza Taraghi recently told local media that conservatives were the only political faction who could lead fruitful negotiations with the US.

https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/iran-press-review-tehran-hardliners-biden-negotiations

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Biden And North Korea

North Korea….remember them?

We have seen just how impotent the Trump policies have been in the curtailing of NK’s nuclear ambitions.

Well we have a new president and he has his finger on foreign policy….or so we are told….

What is Biden’s thoughts?

Look for familiar names from the presidency of Barack Obama to deal with North Korea after the inauguration of Joseph Biden as president on Jan. 20. Biden, having served as vice president for two terms under Obama, knows these old-timers well and may be inclined to name some of them to influential positions in hope, finally, of bringing North Korea to terms on its nuclear program.

The chances of Kim Jong-un saying, “right, we agree, and we’re giving up our nukes and missiles and the facilities for making them” range from nil to zero, but Christopher Hill, who led the Americans in failed six-party talks on North Korea’s nukes and then in frustrating negotiations with North Korea’s Kim Gye-gwan, never loses hope. In a Biden presidency, he said in a recent panel discussion, “There will be a little more focus on the substance of engagement and why we are willing to engage.”

…

…Biden’s “first order of business is going to be to fix the alliances.” No, he said, “it’s not just NATO,” the North Atlantic Treaty Organization that formed the bulwark of allied defenses against the old Soviet Union in the Cold War era and now faces Russia, whose president, Vladimir Putin, definitely would prefer Trump. For nearly four years, Trump did his best to undermine NATO, blasting its members for not contributing, cutting back on U.S. forces and, disgracefully, trying to finesse a trade-off with Ukraine on military assistance against Russia in return for Ukraine digging up dirt on Biden’s son, Hunter. 

https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/opinion/2020/11/353_299127.html

New president…will US troops stay in South Korea?  Will Kim remain the social outcast or will a new day dawn in US/NK relations?

It will be interesting to see just in what direction the policies involving the Korean Peninsula will travel.

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Senkaku Islands

Huh?

Where the Hell are these islands?

Easy remedy to that question…..

Japan-China relations - Jingoist jangles | Asia | The Economist

There seems to be a bit of a problem with the oil and gas fields in and around the islands…..everybody wants a slice of that pie…..especially China….

Let me continue the education…..this is the conflict according to Japan…..

China’s maritime adventurism in the East and South China Seas has lately attracted considerable attention. Fifty percent of China’s claimed jurisdictional waters are competing with neighboring countries in the East Asia.2 The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has named People’s Republic of China (PRC) as a maritime power in the 18th Party Congress in 2012 (People’s daily Online in Japanese, November 12 2012), and the PRC challenges Japan, the U.S.A., and the ASEAN countries. What happens in the East China Sea? China takes the maritime offensive against Japan. The authordefines the word “offensive” not only the military means, but also the political, legal, economic, and psychological means to oppress the competitor.3 If so, the Chinese maritime offensive against Japan includes not only the actual maritime conflict in the East China Sea, but also the natural resources demand at the disputed waters, anti-Japan demonstration inside and outside of China, the sovereignty assertion in relevant to historical issues with Japan, CCP’s internal power struggle, and China’s national integration policy.

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/24761028.2019.1626567

The question is what is China’s desire for this region?

China’s recent moves are destabilizing, and Japan clearly stated as much in a newly released defense white paper. In the report, the Japanese government presents the nature of the Chinese challenge to its security — especially to the Senkaku islands — in the strongest terms yet. Chinese authorities are in fact described as “relentlessly” pressing their claims to the islands with ever-increasing levels of maritime activities undermining the status quo. Japanese Defense Minister Taro Kono made clear that further intensification of activities might trigger the intervention of Japanese military assets. In response to Japanese concerns, the commander of U.S. military forces in Japan has stated that the United States would help monitor the situation. Every successful step Beijing takes in undermining the status quo around the Senkakus through coercion and force is a direct challenge to the credibility of the U.S.-Japanese alliance and, crucially, to the principles informing the maritime rules-based order centered on the 1982 Convention on the Law of the Sea. While the United States is not party to this treaty, both China and Japan are, and Abe has clearly articulated why China’s actions around the Senkakus fundamentally undermine the principles enshrined in the convention.

What Is China’s Strategy in the Senkaku Islands?

In recent years the US has been itching for a fight with China…the South China Sea and now the Senkaku Islands……it is so serious that the US has stated that it could send troops to the islands…..

American troops could be sent to disputed islands inthe East China Sea, the head of US forces in Japan said, as the two allies began a high-profile drill amid growing concerns overBeijing’s military activities in the region

“Our arrival today was simply to demonstrate the ability to move a few people, but the same capability could be used to deploy combat troops to defend the Senkaku Islands or respond to other crises and contingencies,” Lieutenant General Kevin Schneider, commander of US Forces Japan,

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3107291/american-troops-could-be-sent-defend-senkaku-islands-us

Just those warmongering words should terrify Americans…they are basically daring China to act…..and the ultimatum could be disastrous…..

Hopefully calmer heads will prevail in January.

Then again those heads may not prevail…….

According to a readout of a call between President-elect Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Suga, Biden recommitted the U.S. to defending the Senkaku Islands as part of the mutual defense treaty between the U.S. and Japan:

Biden confirmed that Article 5 of the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty will be applied to the defense of Okinawa Prefecture and the Senkaku Islands. Article 5 stipulates that the U.S. is obliged to defend Japan should its territories come under attack. Former President Barack Obama was the first U.S. leader to declare that the pact applies to the Senkakus.

Biden is reaffirming the position that the Obama administration took in 2014, but that doesn’t make this commitment any wiser or better than it was when it was first made. As a general rule, the U.S. shouldn’t extend its defense commitments to include disputed territories. In this particular case, committing to defend the Senkakus makes even less sense because these are just uninhabited rocks in the ocean. It strains credulity that the U.S. would actually go to war with China for the sake of these rocks, and that makes it more likely that China will test that commitment. The U.S. risks undermining its commitments to treaty allies when it recklessly expands them to include territory that we aren’t going to defend when push comes to shove. Instead of deterring China and protecting a treaty ally, this commitment seems more likely to create an unnecessary flashpoint that could lead to further escalation.

Would You Die for the Senkakus?

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