Siphon Off The Cash

Closing Thought–14Jan19

Well we watch the tube and the volatility of the markets….wild swings in losses and gains…..it is not normal.

And then there are the trade policies of our president…..his view of his tariffs are not anything like the views from financial pundits…..the news is not good from the tariffs…….out soy bean farmers think they are screwed even after the silly tariffs are removed….

With that said and reported……what about other sectors of our economy?

The financial magazine Forbes reports…..

President Trump likes to say that China and other countries are pouring money into the U.S. with the tariffs he has imposed. However, the countries that are sending goods to us aren’t paying the tariffs . The companies that import goods are paying them , which means U.S. companies need to raise prices (therefore a tax on consumers), lower their margins and have less profit (which also lowers the amount of taxes they pay to the government) or even go out of business.

The U.S. Treasury Department releases a monthly report, which provides how much in customs duties are received by the government (December’s is delayed due to the shutdown. so I have estimated that month’s result). Trump is correct that the payments have escalated in recent months. While they took a jump in the second half of fiscal 2018 (September) from the first half, they have almost doubled in the December quarter compared to the first half of fiscal 2018 before the additional tariffs were imposed.

First half of fiscal 2018: $3.1 billion per month

Second half of fiscal 2018: $3.8 billion per month

First quarter of fiscal 2019: $6.0 billion per month

Increase of 95% from the first half

Delta between $6.0 and $3.1 billion is $2.9 billion  The $2.9 billion monthly increase in customs duties over a full year is $35 billion, which is either passed on to consumers in higher prices or eats into company profits. This can potentially drive a company out of business such as a South Carolina TV manufacturer laying off 126 employees or a Missouri nail manufacturer laying off 200 of its 500 employees.

None of this “news” tracks with the bullsh*t fed to us by the “warrior from Wharton”……..(I still say this person did not get his degree legally…Daddy bought it for him)……these policies are doing NOTHING to make America Great again….NOTHING!

Advertisements

The Rich Get Richer

A Sunday and I feel like the idle rich……sitting in my garden sipping wine….eating cheese and nuts and fruit…..and enjoying the day without a care……

I try to make IST an entertaining blog and a little FYI thrown in……

Today I want to try and explain the saying “the rich get richer and the poor get poorer”……..this article in VOX will help one understand what is happening here in the US…..

Something massive and important has happened in the United States over the past 50 years: Economic wealth has become increasingly concentrated among a small group of ultra-wealthy Americans.

You can read lengthy books on this subject, like economist Thomas Piketty’s recent best-seller, Capital in the Twenty-First Century(the book runs 696 pages and weighs in at 2.5 pounds). You can see references to this in the campaigns of major political candidates this cycle, who talk repeatedly about how something has gone very wrong in America.

Donald Trump’s motto is to make America great again, while Bernie Sanders’s campaign focused on reducing income inequality. And there’s a reason this message is resonating with voters:

It’s grounded in 50 years of reality.

https://getpocket.com/explore/item/this-cartoon-explains-how-the-rich-got-rich-and-the-poor-got-poor

This article tells the tale that few can grasp……to massage the rich then the poor must pay…it is that simple and to pretend anything other is a LIE!

There are so many people that cannot grasp just how this system works….hopefully this will help in some small way…..

A new Congress and a Congresswoman has proposed, AOC, a 70% rate of the uber rich…..I have NO problem with that…..will not fly because most of those in our Congress are uber rich…..they will not vote to tax themselves….I give her an “A” for the try…..but disappointment waits.

And now the old professor will just sit and smile at the day…..I found an excellent Malbec from Argentina…..

May you be well and safe…….chuq

Closing Thought–18Dec18

The old say…”All’s well that ends well” may not be the best slogan to describe 2018…..

The one thing that Trump could point to in the past to keep his people in line is that the economy is doing well….in the last month the economy is tanking and tanking badly….from a high of 27000 to the plunge to around 23 and some change…..

The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 500 points, its second straight drop of that size and its fourth big decline this month, the AP reports. Longtime market favorites like Microsoft and Amazon took heavy losses Monday. Health care companies also fell sharply. A measure of small-company stocks fell into a bear market, a decline of 20% below their recent peak. The market is now well into the red for the year and the S&P 500 index is trading at its lowest level since October 2017. The S&P 500 fell 54 points, or 2.1%, to 2,545. The Dow lost 507 points, or 2.1%, to 23,592. The Nasdaq composite lost 156 points, or 2.3%, to 6,753. (Read more stock market stories.)

Is this a prediction of a recession coming true?

What To Expect From The Economy

I am spending Trump’s first full week writing about the situations that he will be facing and even predicting a few things to come…..

Just how are most Americans coping these days with the economy and their finances?

Minor emergencies like a busted pipe, flat tire or a root canal happen all the time. But for the majority of Americans, such inconveniences are potential recipes for financial ruin, according to a new survey by finance site Bankrate.com.

In the survey released on Wednesday, Bankrate found that 63 percent of Americans don’t have enough saved to cover even a $500 financial setback. And just half of higher income respondents (defined as $75,000 or more in annual earnings) said they have enough cash to handle such an emergency.

Source: Most Americans Lack Reserve Cash to Cover $500 Emergency: Survey – NBC News

Now there will be those on the Right that will have lots to say about these findings….none of which will be accurate…..

Let’s move on…….what can we expect in the economy in Trump’s first 100 days?

For President-elect Trump, boosting economic growth and creating more good-paying jobs recovery will not prove easy. George W. Bush campaigned on — and delivered — lower taxes and more limited government, but his economic expansion was no more robust than Barack Obama’s and ended with the 2007/08 financial crisis.

Mr. Trump has promised a lot that will be difficult to accomplish, because federal resources are limited. Without any new tax or spending initiatives, the federal deficit will grow as more baby boomers retire, and congress will not always cooperate.

Still public confidence is as important as government policies for inspiring growth, and he can still spell out a robust agenda during his first 100 days. Here are five things to look for in the new president’s first days.

Source: What to expect from the economy in Trump’s first 100 days | Fox News

FOX News, huh?

Not always the most accurate source for actual news but this one is something to consider when dealing with the economy….Morici is a respected economist so his opinions are worth considering…..

The last factor he, Morici, covers is that of trade…….and then word has come out about one of Trump’s first EOs….(more on EOs later today)…….

President Donald Trump on Monday will unravel the behemoth trade deal he inherited from his predecessor, as two sources familiar with the matter told CNN he plans to sign an executive order to withdraw from the negotiating process of the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

That executive order will send signals to Democrats and leaders in foreign capitals around the world that Trump’s rhetoric on trade during the campaign is turning into action. Trump vowed during the campaign to withdraw the US from the Pacific trade deal, commonly known as TPP, which he argued was harmful to American workers and manufacturing.
The executive order is expected to be the first Trump will issue Monday, a senior White House official said, and will amount to the administration’s first major action on foreign policy.
(cnn.com)
The economy will be one of the indicators to tell whether the Trump plans are working or not.

Only thing that is obvious is the Goldman-Sachs will have a good couple of years…..

Why saving money won’t help the American economy

To continue boring the crap out of my visitors…..I will remain on the economics thing…..sorry must feel it must be said……

Whenever some economists get together they put out a call for more Americans to save so that there will be an increase of investing and that way the economy will get into high gear and we all will benefit……

Not so fast…..that is just a pipe dream sold to those uninformed…….it is at best propaganda ……at worst Bullsh*t!

 

Why saving money won’t help the American economy.

Will The Country Suffer Depression?

The markets go up…..the markets go down……a continuous yo-yo ride……

I know….very few Americans want to talk or learned about economics…..it is just all too hard.

We all have a fleeting knowledge of what happened in 1929, right?  But our minds are fresher in the events in 2008 when the markets dropped like a lead toilet in Lake Michigan.

But since that day the markets have steadily gone up and up and up……seemingly without any possibility of a return to the days of losing funds……but is there a possibility that we could see another loss of funds and value………..

A CIA analyst known for his dire economic predictions is speaking up again, warning that the next Great Depression may be right around the corner. Jim Rickards, a “financial threat and asymmetric warfare adviser” for the CIA, tells Money Morning that Americans should be preparing for a $100 trillion financial catastrophe. “Everybody knows we have a dangerous level of debt,” he says. “Everybody knows the Fed has recklessly printed trillions of dollars. … But all signs are now flashing bright red that our chickens are about to come home to roost.” Another reason for gloom: According to Rickards, the so-called Misery Index maintained by the Federal Reserve contains far worse data than most people believe.

The Misery Index adds the true unemployment rate with the true inflation rate, but Rickards contends that the Fed has altered the index’s calculations in order to hide the truth—that “the Misery Index has reached more dangerous levels than we saw prior to the Great Depression,” he says. “This is a signal of a complex system that’s about to collapse.” His prediction? A “70% stock market crash” followed by a 25-year depression, possibly sparked by a “major credit collapse” in China, he tells Reuters. His advice? Invest in “hard assets” like railroads, coal, wheat, or gold. Again, he’s not known for mild predictions:

Whatcha think?  Is this guy onto something or is he just giving Americans what they crave….a good dose of fear?

Do You Know What happened In 2008?

Yes, I am talking about the crash and the ensuing recession, the unemployment, foreclosures and the tune continues…….you may know that your 401k is not worth the paper it is printed on…..but do you know just how the crash happened?

I am guessing that most Americans either do not know or maybe they just do not give a crap……but if you are truly interested in educating yourself on how you were screwed….then by all means read on…….if not then maybe a good episode of “Jersey Shore” that teaches a lot about life is on MTV….if you do not care enough to learn what happen then keep thy mouth shut when it blows up again….and make NO mistake ….IT WILL!

A very good explanation has been written by Zeus Yiamouyiannis……..

Here is how the counterfeit value derivative con works.  It’s a game of “I pretend, you pretend, we all pretend, and the taxpayer will pay in the end”.

1) I’ll create an instrument, say a credit default swap (CDS), an unregulated insurance with no capital requirements, with a certain “notional” value. Notional value is just something I assign. It does not have to be attached to or backed by any real asset or actual money/principal, but I can pretend as if it is. (Notional amount.)

2) As a seller, I will just declare that this swap covers the full value X of this company, contract, etc. if credit event Y happens. I receive lucrative insurance premiums and fees for my unbacked promise. The CDS’s value is based in nothing more than my promise to pay. I don’t have to have adequate capital reserves on hand, but I can pretend as if I do perhaps with some mini-reserves based on objective-seeming risk ratios calculated by my mathematical models. (credit default swap.)

3) As a buyer, you can then buy as many of these CDS’s as you want, even for a single default. If you are really sure something is going to tank you can insure it 30 times over (or a 100 or 1,000) and get 30 (or 100 or 1,000) times the return when it goes bust! In regulated insurance it is unacceptable to insure beyond the full replacement value of the underlying asset. Not so with CDS’s. The seller has gotten 30x the premiums and the buyer gets 30x value in the event of default. As a buyer of this phony “insurance” you don’t have a stake in the affected properties, but you can essentially pretend you do.

4) As buyer and seller of CDS’s either one of us can assign our risks to a third party through another contract, and pretend as if we are covered in case our own game playing blows up in our faces. This allows us to retain even less reserve capital and spend freed-up funds on more high-risk, high-(pseudo) return speculation. (The monster that ate Wall Street.)

5) We can purchase and sell of these derivative contracts to each other at unlimited rates to generate massive volume and huge fees and profits. We can simply hyper-cycle risk and take our chunk each time.

According to the Bank of International Settlements, as of June 2011 total over-the-counter derivatives contracts have an outstanding notional value of 707.57 trillion dollars, ( 32.4 trillion dollars in CDS’s alone). Where does this kind of money come from, and what does it refer to? We don’t really know, because over-the-counter derivatives are not transparent or regulated.

Read More…

The answer to your questions are not as difficult to understand as the msm and the economists want you to believe……..once you learn the facts then you can keep your bank and brokers in check….that is if you really give a crap……and Dodd-Frank is a blowjob….it does little to keep the financial sector from gaming the system again and causing another meltdown….personally, I want to see someone go to prison because of what has been done to the economy and beyond that I want to make sure these con men cannot either game the system again so that we, the taxpayer, give them an out…..let them ROT in their own deceitfulness!