Tag: Belarus

Here A Nuke….There A Nuke….Everywhere A Nuke

The news that Russia would place nukes in Belarus sent a jolt through the blog-sphere with a wealth of dire predictions of the world to come.

Looks like July may start the warnings all over again.

Why is that, Professor?

I am glad you asked.

Putin said last week that Russia will send tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus next month once the construction of storage facilities is completed, which is expected to happen by July 8.

And of course Poland had to thump its chest at the news….

Polish President Andrzej Duda said Monday that NATO must respond to Russia deploying nuclear weapons to Belarus.

“I absolutely believe that such a situation demands an unequivocal response from NATO,” Duda said at a joint press conference in Paris with French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, according to Bloomberg.

Duda didn’t specify what kind of response he had in mind, but he has previously said Poland wants to host US nuclear weapons. In October 2022, Duda said he was discussing the idea with Washington.

When Russian President Vladimir Putin announced his plans to deploy nukes to Belarus, he compared the move to NATO’s nuclear sharing program, under which Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Turkey host US nuclear weapons.

(antiwar.com)

This appears to be a replay of the Cold War years…..and the usual dire predictions have begun from those god awful think tanks….

A Swedish think tank that keeps tabs on nuclear weapons around the world issued quite a statement Monday to describe the state of things: “We are drifting into one of the most dangerous periods in human history,” said Dan Smith of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, per the Guardian. The assessment comes as the group’s latest assessment found that the number of operational nuclear warheads ticked up again in 2022.

  • SIPRI counts 9,576 in military stockpiles ready for use in various countries, which is up 86 from the previous year, per Reuters.
  • The new 86 belong to China (60), Russia (12), Pakistan (five), North Korea (five), and India (four). The group acknowledges this is a best guess given that China has never disclosed its numbers. SIPRI estimates China now has 410 in all.
  • Nuclear-armed states are listed as the US, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel. The US and Russia account for 90% of the world’s total, according to SIPRI. Counting warheads that have been retired and are awaiting dismantlement, the world total is 12,512.
  • The group said diplomacy over nuclear arsenals has taken a hit since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in particular. “It is imperative that the world’s governments find ways to cooperate in order to calm geopolitical tensions, slow arms races and deal with the worsening consequences of environmental breakdown and rising world hunger,” said Smith.

A closing thought….Nations wasted $157,000 per minute on nukes….

A new report published Monday by the Nobel Peace Prize-winning International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons shows that the world’s nine nuclear-armed countries spent more than $157,000 per minute on their atomic weaponry last year, enriching private contractors at the risk of imperiling humankind.

Combined, nuclear-armed nations spent $82.9 billion on their arsenals last year, according to ICAN. The United States was the biggest spender, dumping $43.7 billion into its already massive arsenal in 2022—more than all of the other nuclear-armed countries combined.

“The U.S. Congress allocated $16 billion for the [National Nuclear Security Administration] in 2022 to spend on weapons activities,” ICAN’s report notes. “In 2022, the Department of Defense requested $27.7 billion for ‘nuclear modernization,’ including the ‘Ground-Based Midcourse Defense, B-21 Bomber, Columbia class submarine, and Nuclear Command, Control, and Communications.'”

Overall, the report shows global spending on nuclear weapons increased for the third consecutive year in 2022.

https://www.commondreams.org/news/nations-wasted-nuclear-weapons

What say you?

Is this end times that all the religious sort have been waiting for  for so many years?

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

Russian Nuke News Of The Day

The big news this weekend ought to get the jaws flapping and brains scrambled…..

Over the weekend news broke that Russia plans to re-position its nukes.

President Vladimir Putin said Saturday that Russia will station tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. The allies struck an agreement after Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko raised the possibility, Putin told Russian state television, per the BBC. Russia will maintain control of the weapons, he said, likening the move to the US having weapons in Europe and saying it won’t break existing nonproliferation agreements. “The United States has been doing this for decades,” Putin was quoted as saying.

A storage site for the weapons, which are designed to be used in battle—unlike longer-range strategic nuclear weapons—will be built by July 1, Putin said, per Reuters. Putin has had Lukashenko’s support for the invasion of Ukraine, and Russia has used neighboring Belarus as a staging ground for deploying troops. Putin said this move is a response to Britain’s decision to ship Ukraine armor-piercing rounds containing depleted uranium, which Russia falsely claims have nuclear components, per the AP.

Again I think some will lose their minds over this news…..

Why would Putin do this move?

Putin also said the decision was related to the UK supplying Ukraine with depleted uranium rounds for its British-made Challenger 2 tanks. Depleted uranium ammunition is radioactive and is linked to cancer and birth defects, especially in Iraq, where US forces used an enormous number of the controversial munitions.

When will this happen…..if ever…..?

In response to the announcement, the US said it hasn’t seen any indication that Russia is planning to use nuclear weapons. White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby also said the US hasn’t seen Russia move any nuclear weapons around yet.

But let me say this is no different than the US putting nukes in the UK and other sites….before I get some half brain thinking that I am a Putin fan let me state here and now….Putin is a barbaric tool the sooner he is gone the better….and the nukes…I am anti nuke as well as anti-war…..I do not think that we need the capabilities to destroy the earth several times over….we already do a fine job with conventional weapons.

Does that clear up any confusion?  (Probably not but I tried)

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“lego ergo scribo”

Is Belarus Going To War?

Belarus is an ally to Russia and has been supporting the invasion of Ukraine by Vlad the Invader…..the war of words is amazing…..but now reports are coming out that Belarus may be poised to help its ally Russia….

Belarus?

Belarus Country Information

The Ukrainian state security service has officially reported that a rocket attack on Zhytomyr Airport – located some 93 miles west of Kiev – was launched from the territory of Belarus. 

Belarusian special forces were seen loading onto airplanes in preparation for an air assault on Kyiv in what could be a widening of the war, military sources stated.

Ukrainian intelligence has reportedly learned from within Belarus that ‘special ops’ troops have been spotted loading up planes for a major attack.

Videos have circulated of the explosion at Zhytomyr Airport, with reports of shockwaves nearby. 

A widening of the conflict to potentially include Russian ally Belarus could signal Vladimir Putin’s growing fury and frustration as the Russian campaign appears to get bogged down in fierce fighting around Kyiv and Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second biggest city. It could also run the risk of sucking in other states including NATO allies, triggering a pan-European conflict.

In a bizarre rant on Sunday, Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko warned that the war in Ukraine will ‘become a meat grinder’.

Speaking at a polling station during a referendum on constitutional change that would give the despot further power, the Putin ally thundered: ‘The conflict in Ukraine is the thin edge of the wedge. Believe me, I know what I’m talking about. If it continues like this, the worst will happen.

‘He [Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky] will not be hidden in any American or some other bunker. That’s why the war should be ended today. I wouldn’t even call it the war. This is a conflict. The war will last for one-two days, but there will be a meat grinder in three days.’

Andriy Zagorodnyuk, Kyiv’s former defence minister, has claimed that Belarus is about to declare war on Ukraine. The Guardian quoted Zagorodnyuk as saying: ‘Republic of Belarus is highly likely to join the Russian war against Ukraine. On Russian side. There is an information about airborne troopers from Republic of Belarus loaded on the planes to enter Ukraine.

‘This is a terrible development as it involves a country, which until very recently was a great friend of Ukraine; which people always considered Ukraine as a brotherly nation. Ukraine and Belarus has never been to war one with another in their many hundred years of history.

‘We believe that the only reason for that decision was personal demand from President of Russia, which completely depends from Putin in its policy.’

(dailymail.co.uk)

Where will this go?

Would this expansion start a spiral that will eventually involve the US and its troops?

Do you actually care?

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“lego ergo scribo”

Surround Belarus

In case you have been pre-occupied with the pandemic, protests and the election then you have missed the newest problematic situation developing in Central Europe…..the election and protests in the country of Belarus.

A Beginner's Guide into Eastern European Genealogy | St. Andrews Rectory

Alexander Lukashenko, often referred to as Europe’s last dictator, won a fifth term as president in October 2015, with no significant opposition candidate allowed to stand.But his next attempt at prolonging his rule was met with mass street protests in August 2020, demanding that he step down after an election that the opposition said was rigged.
A former state farm director, Mr Lukashenko was first elected president in 1994, following his energetic performance as chairman of the parliamentary anti-corruption committee.
He has managed a balancing act between Russia, his closest economic and political partner, and overtures to the West, while maintaining authoritarian rule at home.

President Lukashenko faces mass protests after the opposition says the presidential election was rigged in his favour.

Putin has said that Russian troops are at the disposal of the Belarus dictator……and just like the Cold War the US has responded by sending troops for war games on the borders with Belarus….

The US announcement of 12,000 troops leaving Germany now sees another scramble to secure US presences. Poland is reportedly keen to have a “permanent” US presence, complete with a command. They say at least 1,000 US troops will be involved.

Polish officials say the troops will be on the eastern border, and the command will manage all NATO troops on the Russian frontier. Poland has been courting a US presence for years, suggesting at times they’d joined NATO specifically for the opportunity to host US troops.

(antiwar.com)

Next troops are sent to Lithuania…..

Hundreds of US troops have arrived in Lithuania to take part in military drills near the border of Belarus, adding to the mounting tensions over the disputed Belarusian presidential election. On Saturday, about a dozen Abrams tanks crossed into Lithuania from neighboring Poland.

Since the August 9th presidential election in Belarus, the US and EU have rejected the results and called for a fresh round of votes. The official results gave incumbent President Alexander Lukashenko 80 percent of the votes. Since the controversy over the election started, Lukashenko has accused NATO of building up a military force on Belarus’ borders in an effort to oust the embattled president.

The government of Lithuania insists that the exercise was pre-planned and has nothing to do with “any events in the region,” alluding to the August 9th election. The US deployment to Lithuania is expected to last until November. NATO has repeatedly denied Lukashenko’s claims of a military build-up on Belarus’ border.

(antiwar.com)

Then there is the country just off the map to the East….Georgia (the country not the state)…..seems that more NATO (US) troops are needed for some reason…..

Republic of Georgia launched the Noble Partner 2020 military exercise, a war game centered around Tbilisi which will play host to 2,800 NATO troops from US, France, Britain, and Poland.

Noble Partner is meant to simulate the defense of Georgia surrounding an invasion, and is clearly built on the August 2008 Russo-Georgian War. Prime Minister Giorgi Gakharia, however, denies that Russia or anyone else is being targeted in the drill.

Russia is clearly bristling, however, at the presence of NATO troops in operations right on their border. Even if not directly targeted, the exercises are part of Georgia’s ongoing bid for NATO membership, something Russia definitely opposes because of proximity.

NATO largely favors Georgia as a member, but will not grant them accession so long as their claims to South Ossetia and Abkhazia remain unresolved, as this would lead to an immediate risk of a war with Russia over the breakaway republics.

(antiwar.com)

Not to be outdone by NATO Russia and Serbia will go to Belarus for “exercises”….

According to the Belarussian Defense Ministry, troops from Russia and Serbia will be arriving in the country on September 10. They will join Belarus’ own military to take part in a six-day joint military exercise.

Details are still scant, but the timing of the exercise is likely to be used by the Lukashenko government to claim solidarity with the other two countries amid the ongoing protests and disputes over last month’s election.

It is unlikely that the exercises are anything to do with the protests, as multi-national exercises tend to be planned months in advance. That Russia and Serbia are not backing out may not be an insignificant sign, however.

The exercise comes not long after recent NATO exercises near the Russian frontier.  Again, exercises taking place close to one another are not necessarily by design, and can simply be a coincidence because this area is the focus for both sides.

(antiwar.com)

Serbia’s participation has been put on hold thanx to the interference of the EU…….

President Trump admitted Wednesday that he may have misled the public about the threat COVID-19—but he said he had good reasons. His remarks followed the release of recordings from earlier this year in which he told Bob Woodward he had downplayed the virus threat. Asked Wednesday afternoon if he had misled the public, the president said, “Well, I think if you said in order to reduce panic, perhaps that’s so,” per the Washington Post. “The fact is, I’m a cheerleader for this country. I love our country and I don’t want people to be frightened. I don’t want to create panic.” In a Feb.7 phone call, Trump told Woodward that the coronavirus is “deadly stuff” that “goes through the air.” Publicly, he said the virus was no worse than the flu and predicted that it would soon disappear.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-serbia-military-drills/serbia-suspends-belarus-military-drill-citing-eu-pressure-idUKKBN2602Y2

What year is it?

All this looks like tactics from the Cold War…..are we fighting the battles from 70 years ago?

This policy is called “Containment Policy”…..but what is it?

Containment was a foreign policy strategy followed by the United States during the Cold War. First laid out by George F. Kennan in 1947, the policy stated that communism needed to be contained and isolated, or else it would spread to neighboring countries. American foreign policy advisors believed that once one country fell to communism, each surrounding country would fall as well, like a row of dominoes. This view was known as the domino theory. Adherence to the policy of containment and domino theory ultimately led to U.S. intervention in Vietnam as well as in Central America and Grenada.

https://www.thoughtco.com/definition-of-containment-2361022

Same policy…… just replace the term Soviet with Russian.

Yet another stale policy that does nothing to make the world safer and more secure.

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The Borscht Revolution

WE have had the Green Revolution….Yellow Revolution….Orange Revolution….and so on…..and now we are witnessing the “Borscht Revolution”…..the situation in Belarus.

Why “Borscht”?

It happens to be part of the national cuisine of Belarus….ergo “The Borscht Revolution”.

About now someone is asking…”where the Hell is Belarus?

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/attachments/maps/BO-map.jpg

After seven decades as a constituent republic of the USSR, Belarus attained its independence in 1991. It has retained closer political and economic ties to Russia than have any of the other former Soviet republics. Belarus and Russia signed a treaty on a two-state union on 8 December 1999 envisioning greater political and economic integration. Although Belarus agreed to a framework to carry out the accord, serious implementation has yet to take place and current negotiations on further integration have been contentious. Since his election in July 1994 as the country’s first and only directly elected president, Aleksandr LUKASHENKO has steadily consolidated his power through authoritarian means and a centralized economic system. Government restrictions on political and civil freedoms, freedom of speech and the press, peaceful assembly, and religion have remained in place.

The former Soviet republic was occupied by the Nazis between 1941 and 1944, when it lost 2.2 million people, including almost all of its large Jewish population.

Belarus has been ruled with an iron fist since 1994 by President Alexander Lukashenko. Opposition figures are subjected to harsh penalties for organising protests. In 2005, Belarus was listed by the US as Europe’s only remaining “outpost of tyranny”.

In the Soviet post-war years, Belarus became one of the most prosperous parts of the USSR, but with independence came economic decline. President Lukashenko has steadfastly opposed the privatisation of state enterprises, and the country is heavily dependent on Russia for its energy supplies.

Now with the intro in the bag we go to the violence and protests in Minsk the capital of Belarus.

Aliaksandr Lukashenka has been president of Belarus since 1994, and both citizens and outside observers have roundly questioned the legitimacy of every vote in the country since the one that brought him to power. This one, held on 9 August, was even less transparent than its predecessors. The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) complained that it was invited too late to send observers, while staff from the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) stayed away due to COVID-19. Lukashenka’s primary opponent on the ballot, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, registered to run only a few weeks ago, when her husband, along with other prospective candidates, was prevented from doing so and arrested instead.

Tsikhanouskaya’s central campaign promise was a new, free, fair and transparent election within six months of taking office. Her campaign drew tens of thousands of citizens to its rallies in the lead-up to the vote, the first sign that this time might be different. And, indeed, when Lukashenka claimed to have garnered an improbable 80 per cent of the vote, a lot of Belarusian citizens simply did not believe him. Solid evidence that they are right lies in their own numbers, which grow each day, even as both demonstrators and passersby are arrested en masse; the use of rubber bullets and, reportedly, live ammunition; and the clear signs of torture on the bodies of those released from Lukashenka’s jails, which are rapidly running short of space.

https://www.crisisgroup.org/europe-central-asia/eastern-europe/belarus/how-help-belarus

Then there is the threat of a powerful neighbor that could intervene……

Vladimir Putin has agreed to provide protest-engulfed Belarus with security assistance to counter protests if the country requests it, the president of Belarus declared Saturday after more people took to the streets demanding that he resign, the AP reports. President Alexander Lukashenko made the comment on Saturday evening, several hours after a phone call with Putin and after protesters again demanded that he resign after 26 years in power. Thousands of demonstrators rallied Saturday at the spot in the capital of Minsk where a protester died this week in clashes with police. Some stripped off their shirts to display deep bruises they said came from being beaten by police.

Then there is Russia and how they see the situation in Belarus…..

According to the Institute for the Study of War, Belarusian state media had to insert the comment that Lukashenko “would only invite Russian forces “in the event of external military threats” – an aspect the president hadn’t specified.

Usually, state media are a tool for governments to craft their political messaging and a good indicator of government policies. However, in Belarus, one of the major state media tv channels went on strike in support of the demands of the protesters.

https://www.euronews.com/2020/08/18/how-are-russian-media-presenting-the-unfolding-of-events-in-belarus

This is in the neighborhood of where I have stated that if there is to be a world war it would probably start here in Eastern Europe…..https://lobotero.com/2013/06/13/looking-for-the-linchpin/

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Where The Hell Is Belarus?

A professor colleague approached me the other day he had read a paper that I had written years ago about a linch pin that I thought could start a major conflict (link below is a short post I did for IST on this theory)…..

Source: Looking For The Linchpin – In Saner Thought

My friend is an expert on the ex-Soviet Union, he teaches a class on late Russian history….anyway wanted to debate my premise for he thinks that the focal point will indeed be in Eastern Europe but he thinks it will center around Belarus….after about 2 hours of debate we both came away with our theories in n tact…it was a draw.

But he made some excellent points so I decided to do some research on my own……

  • After seven decades as a constituent republic of the USSR, Belarus attained its independence in 1991. It has retained closer political and economic ties to Russia than have any of the other former Soviet republics. Belarus and Russia signed a treaty on a two-state union on 8 December 1999 envisioning greater political and economic integration. Although Belarus agreed to a framework to carry out the accord, serious implementation has yet to take place. Since his election in July 1994 as the country’s first and only directly elected president, Aleksandr LUKASHENKO has steadily consolidated his power through authoritarian means and a centralized economic system. Government restrictions on political and civil freedoms, freedom of speech and the press, peaceful assembly, and religion have remained in place. The situation was somewhat aggravated after security services cracked down on mass protests challenging election results in the capital, Minsk, following the 2010 presidential election, but little protest occurred after the 2015 election.

Belarus said on Thursday it suspected Russia was trying to restore a formal border zone between the two countries, a move it said flouted agreements on freedom of movement and trade and raised questions about Moscow’s real intent.

Belarus spoke out after the publication of three decrees signed by Alexander Bortnikov, the head of Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB), that ordered border zones to be set up in three Russian regions adjacent to Belarus.

Source: Belarus says suspects Russia trying to restore post-Soviet border | Reuters

During my research I found a good paper written for RealClear……

Tensions between Moscow and Minsk have increased dramatically in the last two years as the countries’ tenuous relationship has deteriorated to the point of a regional crisis that mirrors the events in Ukraine. After Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko began exploring closer relations with the West because of high Russian oil prices, Russian media has ratcheted up an information war designed to spoke fear that Belarus is trying to follow Ukraine in aligning with the West.

Source: Belarus: Rising Fear That Country Will Be the Next Ukraine | RealClearInvestigations

After my research I can see where my friend is coming from….but I still hold to my original premise.