There is a lot of stuff that could happen in this year…….I am worried about the guy in the White House….this guy is impetuous at best and foolish….his need for flattery will prove to be fatal to American foreign policy……
There are a few things we need to watch……
- China: Filling a gap vacated by the US, China is extending its influence “with less resistance than ever before,” threatening economies and suggesting friction with the US.
- Geopolitical accidents: With less trust among actors, missteps in North Korea, Syria, and Russia could lead to confrontations.
- Global tech cold war: The US and China are seeking new technologies in “the world’s biggest fight over economic power,” while other countries fight for market dominance.
- Mexico: The outcome of a NAFTA renegotiation and a presidential election in July “both carry significant market risks.”
- Iran: Tensions will rise as the country pushes back against US efforts to curtail its regional influence. If the US-Iran nuclear deal falters, the Middle East could be thrown into disarray.
- Erosion of institutions: “The expansion of an increasingly toxic antiestablishment sentiment is starting to erode the legitimacy of political institutions in established democracies,” making for less stability.
- Protectionism 2.0: A continuing shift toward a new form of protectionism that “generates more acrimony because it is often targeted at political adversaries” poses risks for trade in 2018.
International conflicts the media needs to watch……
It’s not all about Donald Trump.
That’s a statement more easily written than believed, given the U.S. president’s erratic comportment on the world stage — his tweets and taunts, his cavalier disregard of international accords, his readiness to undercut his own diplomats, his odd choice of foes, and his even odder choice of friends. And yet, a more inward-looking United States and a greater international diffusion of power, increasingly militarized foreign policy, and shrinking space for multilateralism and diplomacy are features of the international order that predate the current occupant of the White House and look set to outlast him.
World affairs will start to move and the pace will increase……until they get out of control as far as it goes for the US.