Good day and hope everyone had a good New Years Day……..We begin a new year and an attempt to keep the situation in the Levant in perspective……
Item 1–With all the spurious info about ISIS being hurt by all the Coalition airstrikes they should soon be on the run everywhere right?
Several months in, the US war hasn’t amounted to much on the ground, with ISIS losing a handful of minor towns, while seizing a number of others elsewhere. In Syria the war has centered around destroying oil infrastructure, while the Assad government shifts its focus to other, smaller rebel groups.
While ISIS’ biggest gains came in spurts, and most of the time they were just consolidating newly-captured territory, there’s no denying 2014 was a major win for them, and going into 2015 the group will be looking to keep that momentum.
In Syria, the ISIS focus will probably continue to be on Kobani and other minor targets, with an eye toward eventually moving on the contested city of Aleppo. In Iraq, the ambitions are clearly much bigger, with the group having gotten its territory extend to the outskirts of Baghdad, increasing pressure on the Iraqi capital.
Iraq and Syria are where the biggest battles will doubtless be happening in 2015, but ultimately ISIS is also hoping to expand into other nations, with Lebanon and Jordan both likely near-term targets, and their successful recruiting worldwide meaning they could have a sudden presence virtually anywhere.
Item 2–The capture of a Jordanian pilot has put a monkey wrench in the Coalition ……
A week after a Jordanian pilot was shot down and captured by ISIS, Jordanian MP Rula al-Hroob has confirmed that the nation has halted its involvement in the ISIS war, and is no longer conducting airstrikes.
Al-Hroob insisted the move was not a “permanent decision,” but rather a step back from the conflict to try to get a deal done to recover the pilot. So far there are no indications ISIS is close to releasing them.
Sounds like Jordan is worried about ISIS expansion into the country…..
Item 3–Iraqi general warns that the army of Iraq is NOT capable of a complete victory over ISIS at this time……he stated that it will take many months of training and luck for them to be in a position to win.
Item 4–US attempt to rescue downed Jordanian pilot fails……more on this in a separate cover……
Today’s SITREP will be the last daily for now….the situation is NOT lending to a daily briefing…..I will go to a weekly one until more info is available…..sorry for the inconvenience….
Thanx for your time and attention…….
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