Inkwell Institute
Middle East Desk
I am an old guy and have witnessed a lot of history in my time……and I am always looking for cycles in the international arena….now I think that maybe I found one when it comes to the future of Iraq.
Back in the 80’s the former communist regime of Yugoslavia started disintegration with the death of Tito……each of the federated states within the country started stretching out for freedom and independence and unfortunately it involved years of fighting one faction against another……..it erupted into the Yugoslav Wars beginning in 1987 first it was in Croatia and then it moved to a more serious conflict in Bosnia and Herzegovina….resulting in thousands of deaths mostly along ethnic lines….in essence a race war. Eventually, the US and NATO had to intervene to prevent the ethnic cleansing and by 2000 the region was in relative peace but not before NATO had to bomb it into submission in 1999…….the UN stepped in and administered Kosovo until 2009.
Sorry but that is as simply put as I could without boring you guys into a coma.
My point is that Yugoslavia took a while to sort out it’s differences and yes it was bloody for a time but since those dark days the region is relatively calm. Could this be a template for Iraq?
If it is it would require the US and its NATO friends to intervene…..but then the question is….on whose side?
But before they make that decision maybe they should spend a little time analyzing the situation…..and I do not mean from some Ivy League educated academic that is a lifer in the US diplomatic corps……these people may be knowledgeable but they lack a comprehension of the region. Years behind a desk in DC does not mean they have a grasp on the situation other than cables from other Ivy League academics. Without first hand knowledge any attempt to solve this conflict will be WRONG!
The options are very limited……the Arab states around Iraq will do very little for most of them are having problems of their own and cannot risk making their situation worse. Without them who does that leave? UN, NATO and of course the US. As much as I would like to see the Iraqis work this out for themselves…..I am afraid it is looking more like some sort of intervention will be needed. And as usual the US will have to lead the way.
The US biggest problem as I see it is that they have this unyielding desire to see countries stay intact even if it means more trouble down the road….in other words what is good for the US……maybe now is a good time to see what is best for the people of Iraq and make a determination from that line of thinking.
The hard truth is Iraq is three separate entities…..now the problem is to see just how a three can be made peaceful and prosperous.
As much as I may dislike the conclusion….the US may be the key to a stable Region.
When and why did it become the US’ s job to be peace maker or the world’s watch dog? This is not meant to be a sarcastic, but a genuine question.
After WW2 when the US started sticking its nose into everyone’s business….Cold War help also…..and then there is that American Exceptionalism thing….basically because we can….
Sorry to rain on your words, Chuq, but Iraq is hugely different from former Yugoslavia – within Yugoslav Federation existed States with internationally recognised sovereign borders (Croatia, Slovenia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Macedonia) – these as you may be aware existed separately prior to WWI and beyond although at many times under foreign powers/empires such as Austro-Hungarian etc…The war there was a war of Serbia’s aggression against states that wanted to break away from communist Yugoslavia into independence and democracy and Serbs would have none of that so they attacked and others went into defence mode…Iraq on the other hand consists of tribal powers, each fighting for supremacy over the other, they always have and always will and to me democracy has no meaning there unless it means the strongest and most vicious tribe gets to rule…Whether US or any other foreign country has a chance at bringing peace and democracy there is a question that in essence doesn’t need to be asked as the No answer stares one in the eye.
Hello inavukic…nice to have a comment from you have seen your visits……I was looking at the possible similarity that NATO airstrikes did to bring a peaceful air…..just as the former Yugoslavia needed help from the outside world I believe that Iraq will also…..I am not sure that we can really help but we will try to do what is best….and now we can argue best for whom?
Ah – you meant FRY (Federal Republic of Yugoslavia) which was made of Serbia and Montenegro (1992-2000) – that’s a different action when NATO strike against Serbia in response to attacks in Kosovo, which was part of Serbia…the foreign help Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina received while Serb aggression occurred 1991-1995 did more damage than good in interfering, imposing arms embargo on states being attacked by Serbia that held the strong army of Former Yugoslavia under its control etc etc…the best help was recognition of independence of Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina and Slovenia but even in that arms embargoes continued etc foreign powers kept giving ideas and ideas as to how Bosnia should be divided according to ethnic lines – Dayton agreement 1995 – and this has proven to be a catastrophe
I do appreciate your input….sad to say during those years I was otherwise engaged and did not follow the situation as closely as probably should have…..thanx for your post keeping the Balkans in our heads…..keep up the good work……
Thanx for the comment I appreciate your input…..I apologize if the wording implied something different than what I intended….chuq
All good, chuq – all cleared now. Forgive my sensitivity on issues re former Yugoslavia and the war that raged in Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina…I do follow your blog with great interest and have learned much from it.
There is no problem….I understand passion…..it is what makes us better analysts…..Thanx for your support….chuq