Bad news! UK has voted not to be included in the action against Syria!
Waiting…..waiting….we are waiting for the phone to ring and the “GO” signal given for the assault on Syria’s capabilities to launch chem weapons……once that happens Assad will have to decided what response he is willing to offer up for the destruction of his resources…………
- Step up the anti-rebel offensive
One option would be to intensify attacks against rebel forces to seek some localised and spectacular victory to bolster the morale of the regime’s forces and to signal to the US and its allies that the Assad regime remains undeterred.
An alternative approach would be to seek to broaden the conflict by striking at Turkey, US forces in Jordan or perhaps even to fire ballistic missiles against Israel. The risks here for the Syrian regime are huge. Turkey is well capable of defending itself, as are US forces in Jordan. In both countries there are Patriot anti-missile defences.
An attack on Israel is also unlikely. The Syrian military is heavily committed in the civil war.
Lashing out against Israel might provoke a massive retaliation – opening up the possibility of a wider regional war involving Syria’s ally, Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israel too deploys capable anti-missile systems. Provoking a wider conflict may not be in the interests of either Damascus, or importantly Tehran.
Syria could seek to use a group like Hezbollah to carry out attacks against US or Western interests abroad. Here too though, the Iranian authorities may well have a view and with Iran seemingly intent on exploring a new opening with the West on its nuclear dossier, Tehran may be cautious about encouraging Hezbollah in this direction.
Hezbollah is also itself in a difficult position, having allied itself with President Assad. It may determine it has enough problems at the moment and that it is better to keep its powder dry.
Assad’s options are few……and his choice will determine just what the next move will be for the US.
Will he be stupid?