Would War Really Be The Answer?

Happy Mardi Gras!

Inkwell Institute

Subject:  Middle East

We all have heard the chest thumping from the oversexed gorillas….the Israelis, the GOP, the Neocons…..all the bolster of those hawks in this country about Iran, Syria, et al…..

Before I begin let me point out a couple of factoids……it estimated that Israel has 200-500 nukes and has never signed the the NPT……and that events that are spiraling out of control in the Middle East could have devastating results on your wallet…

Source: RawStory

Oil prices could soar to as high as $160 a barrel if tension over an Iranian oil embargo persists or in the event of conflict, a top Kuwaiti oil executive said in remarks published on Monday.

“If the embargo on Iranian oil persists, or in case of a military move over the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices are expected to soar to around $150 to $160,” Kuwait Petroleum Corporation board member Ali al-Hajeri told Al-Seyassah daily.

Hajeri said such a price would not last long, however, and would return to “normal levels” once the reasons for the rise disappear.

The European Union has slapped an embargo on Iranian oil imports, and Tehran has repeatedly threatened to shut the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic waterway for Gulf oil exports, if it was not allowed to export its crude.

Hajeri called the current price of between $100-105 “fair and acceptable to producers and consumers,” and said any higher price would be counterproductive to the global economy.

Read More…

With all the chest thumping how can we know what would happen…….Michael Synder of BLN.com has listed what to look for in the near future…….

#1 The United States has just imposed tough new sanctions on Iran.  Some of the new sanctions are specifically targeted at the central bank of Iran.  Stronger sanctions have been a prelude to war in the past, and the Obama administration surely wants to argue that “all other alternatives have been exhausted” before going to war.

#2 The EU has announced that all imports of crude oil from Iran will be bannedstarting in July.

#3 The U.S. embassy in Syria has been shut down and the Obama administration has once again called for Syrian President Bashar Assad to resign.

#4 The U.S. has also removed all diplomats from Syria.

#5 In speaking of the removal of Syrian President Bashar Assad, Barack Obamais making it very clear what he believes the final result will be….

“This is not going to be a matter of if, it’s going to be a matter of when.”

This is very reminiscent of the language that Obama used to describe the removal of Gadhafi before the U.S. launched airstrikes in Libya.

#6 U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is calling for “an international coalition” to support the opposition fighters in Syria.

#7 Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak says that Iran is moving their uranium enrichment facilities into recently constructed underground bunkers and that the point of no return is rapidly approaching….

“The world has no doubt that Iran’s nuclear program is steadily nearing readiness and is about to enter an immunity zone”

#8 There are indications that Israel may consider launching an attack against Iran without even notifying the United States.  Aaron David Miller, a Mideast peace negotiator during the Clinton administration, recently made the following statement….

“There’s a growing concern — more than a concern — that the Israelis, in order to protect themselves, might launch a strike without approval, warning or even foreknowledge”

#9 The Washington Post is reporting that U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta believes that Israel will strike Iran at some point during the months of April, May or June.

#10 Former IDF chief of staff Moshe Yaalon insists that an attack on Iran could be successful….

“It’s possible to strike all Iran’s facilities, and I say that out of my experience as IDF chief of staff”

#11 U.S. State Department spokesman Mark Toner says that the Obama administration “is absolutely committed to preventing Iran from getting nuclear weapons“.

#12 Barack Obama underscored his policy toward Iran in a speech just the other day….

“I’ve been very clear — we’re going to do everything we can to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon and creating a nuclear arms race in a volatile region”

#13 According to Debka, thousands of U.S. troops have been heading to “two strategic islands within reach of Iran”.

#14 Iranian leader Ayatollah Khamenei is speaking as if the coming war is a foregone conclusion….

“The war itself will be 10 times as detrimental to the U.S.”

#15 Khamenei also seems to think that the outcome of the coming war is a foregone conclusion as well….

“In light of the realization of the divine promise by almighty God, the Zionists and the Great Satan (America) will soon be defeated”

#16 Khamenei also has declared that Israel is a “cancerous tumor that should be cut and will be cut“.

#17 According to one estimate, there are currently 200,000 missiles aimed at the nation of Israel.

#18 Some Israeli officials claim that Iran is trying to develop a long-range missile capable of reaching the United States.

#19 The death toll from the conflict inside of Syria continues to rise.  Accordingto Debka, “a continuous Syrian bombardment beginning early Saturday, Feb. 4, is estimated to have left a record 350 dead and up to 1,300 wounded in the Homs district of Khaldiyeh.”

#20 According to the United Nations, a total of approximately 6,000 peoplehave been killed since the conflict in Syria began.

#21 The city of Homs is one giant war zone at this point.  The following comes from a recent article in the Telegraph….

“We can’t count all the bodies from the streets and the collapsed buildings. Anyone who tries to go on the street might be killed – there are snipers,” said Abu Abdu al-Homsi, spokesman for the Syrian Revolutionary Council, an opposition group, in Homs. “An old woman – her son was shot and killed in the street, she went to get his body and was shot dead too.”

#22 The Russians appear to be very serious about supporting the Assad regime in Syria.  According to Debka, “the Russians backed their hard line against the West by putting Rapid Reaction Force (aka Spetsnaz) units in Black Sea bases on the ready to set out for Syria and defend Damascus.”

#23 It is being reported that a Hezbollah official has indicated that Hezbollah will attack Israel if Syria is attacked.

#24 There are even signs that Saudi Arabia is busy preparing for a coming war.  The following comes from a recent Debka article….

“Our military sources report that the Saudis this week wound up their own intensive preparations for war. Large forces are now deployed around Saudi oil fields, pipelines and export facilities in the eastern provinces opposite the Persian Gulf, backed by anti-missile Patriot PAC-3 batteries. American, British and French fighter-bombers have been landing at Saudi air bases to safeguard the capital, Riyadh.”

Now you have the points to watch….but if it does not matter to you….then may I suggest Mudcats on the history channel…..a show about the morons that hand fish for catfish……this will help you to remain ignore and controllable……peace out!


17 thoughts on “Would War Really Be The Answer?

    1. Larry, my problem, while I agree that it is situation normal all f*cked up, things are started to spiral at an alarming rate and I do not think we are getting real intel, just what some wants us to know……

  1. Lobotero,

    This is sort of a different point than what your post is about, but I’m not very happy with President Obama. That kid from Flint, MI is still being held in Iranian custody and they still claim they are going to kill him. I’m sorry, but I would have flooded the Strait of Hormuz with fleet after fleet and sent in a Delta or Seal team for extraction, ordering them to kill anyone who stood in the way.

    I know the argument from American Exceptionalism, etc, etc, etc – ad nauseam. The United States government has done some awful things, I’ll admit. But the American people have done nothing but try and help the world. Anytime there is a disaster somewhere else int he world, the very first people to go are Americans. We’re the first to send money, aide, supplies, whatever. Who helps us when we have a disaster? Nobody. Instead they stand in the streets and cheer for our downfall. B.S. to that. Whatever problem Iran has with the United States should not be taken out on American citizens, or vice versa.

    Did you know that if a Roman citizen was caught in another land and feared for his own safety, all he had to say was Civis Romanus Sum, meaning “I Am A Roman Citizen,” and he would be left unharmed. Do you know why? Because the fear of reprisal from the Roman Empire was so great if they dare harm a Roman citizen.

    THAT is the way it ought to be today for American citizens. I know you won’t agree with that, but it’s the way I feel. I believe Lincoln’s words. We are the last best hope…

    1. Terrance, by what you say you believe that we Americans should be immune to anything simply for being Americans? I believe that an action that you describe would lead to the death and maiming of probably millions…..say this was Germany, would you hold the same inclinations?

      If we go back to the tactics of the Romans then we will need to reinstate conscription….and since about 1% of the population is effected by war at this time….and if we do that we will create yet again a massive anti-war, anti-intervention movement…

      I cannot say that the State dept is doing nothing because I am not there….I would imagine that they are doing all tht can be done in th back rooms, where most of this stuff happens….

      1. Lobotero,

        I think civilians of all nations should be free of the turmoil taking place between governments. Innocent civilians should never be punished for living under a globally unpopular government, no matter where they are from. Not just Americans.

        When innocent civilians are killed or harmed, for no reason other than their country of origin, the offenders should pay the price. The United States has the ability to punish any and all nations that mess with our citizens, and we should do it. It should be like Rome. Civis Romanus Sum. If other countries had the ability, I would support them standing up for their citizens no matter where they were.

        A few battleships and a carrier could take out Iran, so it’s not as though we’d have to beat the streets for enlistees.

      2. In 1979, we tried rescue of the hostages….it was not very successful…..

        I believe the guy in question is a marine….is he an active duty marine?

        While I may agree in principle….I believe that the consequences will be more than even we could handle……plus you would be surprised just how many would start trying to get some sort of exemption to avoid war……the ’60’s come to mind….

      3. Lobotero,

        That was a chopper crash in 1979. There are some important differences today and the most obvious is that military capability and technology is far better. If we wanted to do a Rumsfeld “Shock & Awe,” a few battleships and a carrier could do it – on a country like Iran. That’s what I was saying. But a rescue would be obviously more involved, but I think if we can get Osama, we can get this kid from Flint.

        He is a Marine, but not active duty. He was there as a civilian visting family.

        You mean economic consequences?

      4. In 1979 they lost a C-130 also……first, I do not think we have enough cruise to bombard the whole country and the MIC cannot make them that fast…..no I m talking about global consequences…..I am sorry I know you feel strongly about this, but i question his decision….knowing that the consequences were dire all you have to do is look at the hikers…..

      5. Yeah. I suppose we’d have to send a submarine armed with nuclear ballistic missiles. That, I think, would handle Iran.

  2. Terrance, I apologize for the delay in this reply but I have been business with friends I made in the middle east while working there…I wish i could have more info about the young man but ll I can find is that he is well treated and kept from sight…….

    I also would like your opinion about the young man being held and put on trial in Egypt for spying….he is an American that was in the country legally…..whay should be done in this case?

    1. Lobotero,

      If the U.S. Government sends some spy somewhere and that spy is caught, the U.S. Government should attempt to get him back. But it’s not the same as with a civilian. The Spy knew he was putting himself in harms way by doing what he was doing. The civilian was just vacationing, visiting, or sight-seeing, not even thinking about geopolitics. So, it’s quite different in my mind. I think if the guy in Egypt is a civilian, we should go in there and get him back – through force if necessary.

      1. Terrance the guy in Egypt was working for an NGO……now i ask in whose mind would they think vacationing in Iran would be a good idea? BTW, there are travel restrictions for Iran….so entering the country is not a good idea….

      2. Lobotero,

        As I said, the guy from Flint, MI, was visting family – not vacationing. His family is from Iran. But it doesn’t matter to me, one way or the other, whether an American civilian is visting family, vacationing, fishing, or buying cactus underpants. If they’re not breaking the law or acting as an agent of another government, they should not be harmed, and if they be, the offending nation should be punished – severely.

      3. Terrance….we are talking about Iran…..does anyone believe that no matter how noble the visit that they would not be treated as a tool for international BS……at some point we Americans need to realize that not everyone sees us as the exception to the rule……I agree that we should be doing everything short of starting a war to get this man his freedom and he will most likely be released when he is no longer a PR tool…..sorry to put to that way but Iran’s leaders are famous for this……

      4. He has visited Iran many times in the past and never had a problem. But regardless, this is not on the kid; this is on Iran. They’re responsible.

        Short of starting a war? What’s the difference? Be it now or six-months from now, we’ll be at war with them. Israel is not going to stand by much longer while Iran continues to develop nuclear fuel or weapons or whatever they’re doing. Israel was all-set to attack and we held ’em off. Benjamin isn’t going to be held off for much longer, and we’ll be obliged to help.

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