Here Comes The 19th Nervous Breakdown

(CNNMoney.com) — Economists expect an already deep recession to get even worse in 2009, according to a survey released Monday.

Companies will lay off more workers and hoard more cash during the next 12 months, according to the National Association for Business Economics survey, a quarterly take from a panel of economists at private-sector companies in various industries. A vast majority of the 105 economists polled believe the country’s gross domestic product will continue to sink in 2009.

If business conditions indeed worsen during the year, they will be sinking from already historic lows. The survey’s measures of consumer demand, profit margins and capital expenditures all hit their lowest-ever levels in January’s edition of the 27-year old survey.

Nearly half – 47% – of surveyed economists said overall industry demand was falling, compared with 35% who said so in the October survey. Just 10% of respondents said profit margins were rising, compared with 52% who believe they are falling. And 38% of economists said capital expenses are falling, up from just 15% in October.

Credit conditions hurt businesses, according to the economists, as customers had less leverage to buy discretionary products. 78% of respondents said tightening credit conditions affected customers, and 52% said the credit crunch directly hurt businesses in their industries.

With business conditions souring, the outlook for jobs has grown increasingly negative. 39% of economists believe their industries will lay off employees in the next six months, compared with 32% in October.

The forecast was particularly poor for the goods-producing sector, in which 69% of economists saw layoffs in the future, and no one believed the industry would be adding jobs. Service-sector economists were the most optimistic, with only 9% seeing layoffs and 29% saying their industry would be hiring in the next six months.

Companies will likely curtail spending in the coming months as well, according to the survey. 44% of the economists believed capital spending in their industries would fall off in the coming year, compared with just 16% who believed their businesses would increase spending.

Rising unemployment, tightening credit conditions and a difficult lending environment led economists to give a more pessimistic outlook on growth for 2009.

Just 22% believed the U.S. economy would expand this year, down from 62% who thought so in October. Although 26% now believe the economy will shrink less than 1% this year, 52% now think the economy will shrink by more than 1%, which no one predicted in October.

If you watch the markets remember that they do not necessarily indicate a healthy economy just the confidence or lack of……become a miser…you can survive.

4 thoughts on “Here Comes The 19th Nervous Breakdown

  1. Good morning, Chuq!

    The forecast for the economy sure isn’t looking rosy. I’m still job-hunting and now I’m applying to grad school at the same time (deadline is this weekend!), just to cover my bases… in case I can’t find a job that pays more than minimum wage… 🙁 I’m just glad that I’m not a single working mom or even worse–I have it pretty lucky, still… 🙂

    1. Hey Jenny…grad school eh? Tough nut to crack…..Master for me was a breeze….the doctorate was a bitch…my adviser hated me cause I was crappin’ all over one of his heroes in my thesis……good luck….

  2. Haha! Thanks!!

    Well, we shall see. I’d like a “back-up plan” in case I can’t find a job outside Starbucks. If I get a decent job, great. But in this economy…(?)

Leave a Reply