Many have said that we are now in a recession and then there are those who say that there is NO recession is an adjustment.
The U.S. economy is in recession and will contract at a faster pace in the fourth quarter, extending the decline into early 2009 as high unemployment crimps consumer spending, a survey showed.
The National Association of Business Economists’ poll of 50 professional forecasters released on Monday found that real gross domestic product was expected to fall 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter and slump 1.3 percent in the first three months of 2009.
About 96 percent of the NABE forecasters believed that the world’s economic power house was already in recession. Half of them estimated the downturn started in the fourth quarter of 2007 or in the first quarter of 2008.
More than a third reckoned the recession began in the third quarter of 2008, and nearly three-quarters believed it could persist beyond the first quarter of 2009. Over 60 percent expected the depth of the recession to be contained, with the decline in GDP bottoming below 1.5 percent.
Overall GDP growth in 2008 was expected to come in at around 0.2 percent and top 0.7 percent next year, according to the survey. This compares with predictions of 1.2 percent and 2.2 percent respectively in October’s survey.
The unemployment rate was likely to peak at 7.5 percent by the third quarter of 2009, according to the survey. In the October poll, the jobless rate was seen topping out at 6.4 in the second quarter of next year.
With household spending weak, auto sales forecasts were slashed to 13.4 million units this year from October’s estimate of 14.0 million. Sales for 2009 were likely to fall to 12.5 million instead of rising to 14.2 million, as had been predicted in the October survey.
On an optimistic note, analysts said the housing sales rout was likely to bottom out by mid-2009, but a lot of uncertainty remains as new home inventories run at 10-months’ supply, the survey found. Inflationary pressures would be contained as the economic downturn caps demand for oil, it showed.
Can we now stop lying to the American people and tell them the truth of the economic woes…..they already know, but we hoping that it was just them individually, that was having the woes….now tell therm they are not alone.
And we are not alone.
Japan’s economy, the world’s second largest, entered its first recession since 2001 last quarter and the government and economists say conditions may get even worse.
Gross domestic product shrank an annualized 0.4 percent in the three months ended Sept. 30, the Cabinet Office said today in Tokyo. Economists predicted the economy would grow 0.1 percent after contracting a revised 3.7 percent in the previous period.