The Coming Democratic Candidates

The long awaited 2020 election is speeding to a conclusion…..each month the events seem to speed up….after 700+ days of Trump all eyes look to the next election.

So far we have 4 announced Democratic candidates for the presidency….and more in the wings waiting for the best time to announce….we are doing good we have 4 women, one Hispanic and counting (as they say…whoever “they” are)……

The fun thing is that the Dems in 2020 will look like the GOP field in 2016…crowded…and some good ideas will be lost in the rush to the front runner position.

But so far the field has many prospects and all have a track record to run on not like the GOP of old.

For fun the site fivethirtyeight.com has a list of the Dems and how they will be broken down…..I know it is early but it will be fun to see just how accurate the site is this time around.

So for the 2020 Democratic nomination, we’ve resolved to entertain multiple hypotheses about the contest simultaneously. Perhaps the party will decide, and so we should be looking at how much support each candidate has from party elites. Perhaps the candidate most dissimilar to Trump will win, and so we should be evaluating the candidates based on that criteria. Perhaps the primary is just so hard to forecast that you might as well look at the polling, crude as it might be. (It has more predictive power than you might think.)

We’ll see. But we nonetheless think that (despite its mixed success in 2016) the coalition-building model is also a useful tool, especially if we make a few tweaks to how we applied it four years ago.

Just as with the Republicans in 2016, the concept this time around involves considering five key groups of Democratic voters. Here are those groups:

  1. Party Loyalists
  2. The Left
  3. Millennials and Friends
  4. Black voters
  5. Hispanic voters (sometimes in combination with Asian voters)

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-5-key-constituencies-of-the-2020-democratic-primary/

The field keeps expanding and the diversity of the Party will be brought forward…….but is it really a diversified group?

The country wants “new” candidates….we are tired of the same promises and the same lies and the same inaction….we want “new blood” for DC….

A new USA Today national poll shockingly showed that Democratic voters and Democratic leaning independents overwhelmingly prefer “someone entirely new” to any of the current field of potential presidential candidates. This cannot be for lack of choices; there are potentially four times the number of candidates lining up at the starting gate as the most recent Democratic presidential primary.

Yes, this is one poll, but maybe we should refuse to dismiss voter feedback too easily.

Lots of woman announced and some waiting…..but what will this uptick in gender equality could mean to politics…..

Advocates for gender equality are reckoning with what one called a “wonderful challenge”—four or more women running for president in 2020, the AP reports. To many activists, that means a field more reflective of a party that counts women as a crucial voting bloc. But the prospect of multiple women in the race also presents obstacles, with no single candidate holding a claim to women’s votes to the degree Hillary Clinton did in 2016. The women’s vote, and groups that provide financial and grassroots support, could split. Looming over it all is persistent gender bias and the question of whether Americans are ready to elect a female president. “We do realize there’s still sexism in this country, and what we’re trying to do is change minds,” says EMILY’s List President Stephanie Schriock, whose group aids the campaigns of Democratic women supporting abortion rights.

In the early days of the Democratic primary, leaders of many advocacy organizations are thrilled that so many women are seeking the presidency, but are not backing any particular candidate. Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren last month became the first woman to launch a presidential exploratory effort, joined shortly afterward by New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand and Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard. Sens. Kamala Harris of California and Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota also are considering running. Among those candidates, Gillibrand is particularly vocal in invoking her gender as a driver of her campaign, while Warren’s campaign has emphasized economic inequity. So is gender still a problem for candidates? “Because there are so many women running, it doesn’t totally inoculate women from sexism, but it does provide some guardrails,” says a gender-equality activist.

Questions Asked….Waiting For Answers!

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Will They Or Won’t They?

For months upon months we have been bombarded with election stuff…..predictions and speculation will not stop until the votes are counted…..

There is one group in this election that all pundits are concerned with that they may not go to the polls…..and they just cannot understand why Millennials would not vote.

But why would they not want to be part of the process?  The same reason that many do not want to be part of the process.  The process is broken and money plays too big in elections…..but the Millennials are a group, a generation. that could well make a difference…..

In what people are calling — accurately, in my opinion — the most important American midterm election in our lifetimes, there’s been a lot of things we’ve never seen before: like, for example. a president sending thousands of troops to the U.S. southern border or erasing the existence of more than a million transgender people, all to boost GOP voter turnout a point or two.
And then there’s this: non-voter porn.
If you read the news, you know the kind of political smut I’m talking about. Full-frontal exposures of mostly attractive 20-somethings, revealing their often lame-sounding excuses why they’re joining the more than 60 percent of eligible Americans who typically don’t vote in midterm elections.
We’re talking about 20-somethings who’ve never used the U.S. mail and are traumatized by the idea of finding a postage stamp for a registration form, or so don’t see how a small president in search of a balcony is any different than any other politician.
Tomorrow will these voters go to the polls or will they stay home and let the old farts pick their leaders….and then they bitch…..
Shut up and go vote!

 

Populism And The World

The catch word that was batted around during the 2016 elections was populism and according to the MSM  the win by Trump meant that it was on the rise in the US……and tide that could not be stopped….well according to the d/bag Bannon.

Then there is Europe and the rising tide of populism or of right wing politics…some even see that the rise of it in Hungary and Italy among others could signal the end of the EU…..

The newly-installed US ambassador to Germany, Richard (Ric) Grenell, is at the center of a Trumped-up “controversy,” after having given an interview to Breitbart saying that he’s looking forward to encouraging beleaguered European conservatives. The NeverTrumpers went wild: neocon Anne Applebaum accused him of being part of a conspiracy on the part of the Trump administration to back “nativist, pro-Russia and anti-pluralist” forces – as opposed to the globalist, neo-liberal, cravenly pro-Washington (as opposed to pro-American) sock puppets we’ve been backing previously. Applebaum was joined by German Communist leader Sarah Wagenknecht, a leader of the far-left wing of the far-left “Die Linke” Party, who demanded that Grenell be expelled from Germany.

https://original.antiwar.com/justin/2018/06/06/populism-and-the-end-of-the-european-union/

Okay Europe is not the only region that has seen a rise in populism…..Iraq and its latest election…..the leader that gave the US so much trouble in the early years of the occupation has now been elected as the new Prime Minister of Iraq……

The worldwide populist revolt toppling conventional politicians in the United States, Europe and even the Philippines has now reached Iraq. Most Westerners still following Iraqi politics assumed that incumbent Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi’s Dawa Party would handily win the parliamentary election, but nope. Dawa came in third. Firebrand cleric Moqtada al Sadr’s Sairun party came in first.

You remember Moqtada al Sadr. He’s the guy who mounted an Iranian-backed Shia insurgency against the United States, the Iraqi government and his Sunni civilian neighbors between 2003 and 2008. He’s a very different person today. He still raises and shakes his fist in the air but today he’s shaking it at crooked elites, and he’s shaking it at his former Iranian patrons.

http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/blog/michael-j-totten/populist-revolt-reaches-iraq

The rest of this story is waiting to be written…..and it is being written in DC as we speak….but what will it be?

Let’s Go To The Speculation

For decades I have bitched about the endless speculation by the media when our elections roll around…..their predictions have been really wrong in the past….the last couple of elections have proven just how wrong they can be…..I Have witnessed it first hand and so have most Americans yet they allow the MSM to dictate to them or better yet they allow the confusion to keep them from exercising their right to vote…..

The WaPo has decided to cover this tactic in a recent article…..

Where were you on the night of Nov. 8, 2016? If you’re like many political junkies, you were watching election night coverage and wondering not whether Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump would win but might Clinton do so well that she’d win in places like Texas and Arizona.

When she lost, many on both sides of the aisle were shocked. After all, forecasters gave her odds of winning that ranged from 70 to 99 percent. These statistical win-forecasts are increasingly prominent and widely shared — thanks in part to the work of sites like FiveThirtyEight, the Huffington Post, the New York Times Upshot and the Princeton Election Consortium.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2018/03/22/how-election-forecasts-confuse-americans-and-may-lead-them-not-to-vote-at-all/

We are only a few short months from the mid-terms and the MSM has been bombarding the airways already…all in prep work for the vote….I agree that all this speculation is turning off people from voting……I mean think about it…..about 49% of the voting public actually votes anymore…that is a sad stat….DO NOT let the endless speculation turn you off from voting…..exercise your right and maybe then we can get a government that we can be proud of…we have seen what happens when we allow crap to be elected.  DO NOT allow it to happen again!

Please do not depend on the media and its speculation when you vote…you see what we got this last general election….weak minds produce candidates like Trump…..

It Is Not A Democracy

You know that there is always someone going to point out the US is not  democracy but rather a republic…..usually it is someone that is trying to make a point but have nothing to add to the conversation…..

It is true we are a republic…meaning that we cannot elect the president directly….instead it has to go through the whole electoral college thing.

Personally, I have stated many times that the EC has run its course and it is time to get rid of that dinosaur from our early days.

It will not be eliminated simple because our country can only support the 2 party system……according to some government would collapse if we ever rid ourselves of the EC….that the US would slide into anarchy.

I disagree.

The wealthy elite that are our founders did not want a democracy……..

I’ve already confessed my bad attitude about the Electoral College system. And I’ve listed 10 of the potentially serious ways it can screw up our choice of national leaders. The trouble with such a list is that it implies that we have somehow been saddled with the worst system possible. It needs to be said that no system for choosing a national leader would be perfect (although I do believe that considering the anachronistic elements of our system, we could definitely do better).

All this system-bashing could also begin to imply that I have no respect or appreciation for the Framers. That’s not so. Although I don’t seem to have the normal allotment of reverence for the Constitution or its authors, I see them as very smart guys, many of them heroes of the War for Independence, who came to Philadelphia in the summer 1787 hoping to — and trying hard to — make things better.

https://www.minnpost.com/eric-black-ink/2012/10/why-constitution-s-framers-didn-t-want-us-directly-elect-president

One in a series of articles. You can read the whole series here.

What’s Wrong With The Democratic Party?

2016 the Democrats lost the election to Donald J. Trump and they have been scratching their heads ever since……plus Trump constantly relives his win….keeping Dems on the defense and what they needs an offense.

Plus Trump’s and the GOP approval ratings are in the crapper….so much so that the prez made an observation…..

“In private conversations,” said the Post, “Trump has told advisers that he doesn’t think the 2018 election has to be as bad as others are predicting. He has referenced the 2002 midterms, when George W. Bush and Republicans fared better after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, these people said.”

Seriously?  I think that people should keep that in mind as the mid-terms draw close…….an attack may be the GOP’s only chance to retain power…..interesting thought…..huh?

Okay enough chit-chat……the Democratic Party…..

Every time the Dems lose an election someone seems to always bring up the party’s loss with McGovern in 1972.  Is your political history a little sketchy?

A specter is haunting the Democratic Party—“McGovernism.” In 1972, President Richard Nixon shellacked his Democratic opponent, George McGovern, by a 23-point margin in the popular vote. Following McGovern’s defeat, Democrats began running towards the center and haven’t looked back, even though that center seems to have moved further and further to the right with each passing election.

For the past 40 years, whenever a Democratic presidential hopeful has given off the slightest whiff of leftish anti-establishmentarianism, party leaders and mainstream pundits have invoked McGovern’s name. In 2004, HowardDeanwasthenewMcGovern. In 2008, Barack Obama becamethenewMcGovern. This year, it’s Bernie Sanders’s turn.

https://newrepublic.com/article/130737/democrats-still-dont-get-george-mcgovern

After the ass kicking the Dems took in 1972 the party has been gun shy on any progressive issues….in other words it has been running sacred since ’72.

Do Dems truly want to win elections?

What this country truly needs is a real progressive Democratic Party.

I’ve been less than enthusiastic about the Democratic Party since the days Bill Clinton served as president. That’s an odd admission for a registered Democrat and a kid who grew up supporting the Party. What’s more, my reticence was a gut reaction initially, and nothing more.

Today I know why I reacted as I did. But the underlying reason why I felt that way years ago is still in play. America needs a strongly positioned, mainstream progressive party—a party that’s different in kind—not degree—from the Republicans.

That’s not happening. Worse yet, it hasn’t happened for decades.

Clinton’s policies on incarceration and welfare punished African Americans. Obama’s defense policies were drawn from Bush’s hymnal. And the current “resist and oppose” movement is more about Trump than about advancing progressive policies.

https://www.laprogressive.com/progressive-democratic-party/

All reports are that things look good for a “Blue Wave” in the mid-terms of 2018.

Personally I do not think it is as inevitable as the pundits seem to envision.  The Dems may win some races but I do not see a massive Dem win.

But to win maybe they should take a page from the DSA……

On a recent Saturday afternoon, 11 aspiring socialists joined together in a public library in Northeast Washington, DC, to try to clog up the city’s eviction machine. The meeting room was yellow, with a clock set at the wrong time and streamers on the wall left over from somebody’s birthday party.

Gathered around me are members of the DC chapter of the Democratic Socialists of America. DSA membership has skyrocketed from 7,000 to 30,000 members nationwide since Trump’s election, and this meeting was yet more evidence of the new energy in the organization. It was one of the two weekly canvassing meetings for the new Stomp Out Slumlords campaign (SOS), which encourages people facing eviction to get their day in court.

https://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/2017/12/20/16798026/rebuild-left-democratic-party-democratic-socialists-tenant-rights

I still o not see  a solid set of stands that will atract more people to vote Dems…..so far they are just regurgitating the high dollar crap from the Clinton years.

I think the Dems may be disappointed with the next election.

Closing Thought–08Nov17

Yesterday Americans went to the polls in several states….and some think that the Trump agenda was on the line in these votes…..well the Dems came out smelling good after the tally was made official…….

Voters today chose -2 new Democratic governors -2 black lieutenant governors -2 transgender officials -A Black Lives Matter lawyer as DA in Philly -A Sikh mayor in Hoboken -A socialist in Virginia -To oust GOP mayor in Atlantic City -And to expand Medicaid in Maine.

Immediately the head of the DNC went on all news channels to laud the victories…..my advice is not so fast …..it is not 2018 and this could have been a fluke…..do not count too many eggs before they are hatched.

Dems had a good show at the polls but will it last thru 2018?

That is yet to be seen…..that the Dems have the staying power to win big in 2018.

Day is done…..I must be off like a dirty shirt…..see you beautiful people tomorrow….chuq