Tag: Taliban

Why Afghanistan?

Do I like being redundant?  Nope….and eventually someone somewhere will have an answer…….after 10 years you would think that someone would have an answer…….

I have asked this question over and over….and so far there is NO good answer.  There is plenty of spin from both parties and their lap dogs…but not one good answer…..funny how they try to sell the public on whatever plan they come up with…..first it was out in 2011….now it is out in 2014…..what will it be 2 years from now?

I was listening to an interview with Holbrook on MSNBC on the situation in Afghanistan and he said that any negative reports coming from the AfPak area is just counter-productive…why?  Because the Afghans are very pleased with the fact that the US and NATO are present in their country…. interesting…..most unbiased reports, which Mr. Holbrook is not, say something a bit different…..

Raw Story has an interesting report……

A report (PDF) from the International Council on Security and Development (ICOS) shows that 92 percent of those surveyed had never heard of the coordinated multiple attacks on US soil on September 11, 2001. It also shows that four in 10 Afghans believe the US is on their soil in order to “destroy Islam or occupy Afghanistan.”The survey also suggests that Afghans are skeptical of their own government’s ability to protect them, and have little regard for the fledgling democratic institutions the country is building. Fully 43 percent could not name one positive aspect of democracy, and nearly two-thirds — 61 percent — said they didn’t think Afghan forces would be able to keep up the fight against the Taliban if and when Western forces withdrew.

If one does not like the poll and think it is inaccurate, then find me another poll with different results and then we will talk….

I have been asking my question for several years…..why Afghanistan?  In the beginning it was to get AQ…they be gotten…..what is the mission now?  There are a lot of words out there about the conflict, but very few make any sense…..so once again ….since, obviously the Afghan people have NO idea why we are in their country or most likely do not want us there any longer…….WHY AFGHANISTAN?  NO one has an answer!

Taleban? Let’s Talk!

International Studies Group

Subject:  Afghanistan/Pakistan/Peace/Taliban

Since Gen. Pratreus has taken over the command of troops in Afghanistan there has been a wealth of speculation that he will go about the war the way he did in Iraq….that is to bring some of the warring factions over to the ‘good guys’ side and that will hasten the end of the conflict…..I am amused!  And underwhelmed by such extreme lack of knowledge on the part of the media…..yes…we all want this horrendous wart to end and our guys and gals return to their loved ones……the success of the so-called “surge” was not so much what the US did but rather what the AQ  guys were doing to the tribes in western Iraq….the Sheiks got pissed and decided to throw in with the US and its allies….for the time being…..

The strategy of the surge is a noble one but I think a little too optimistic for Afghanistan….

Karzai has admitted that he is in talks with the Taleban….but what does that really mean?

According to the Daily Times, the meeting, held in Kabul two weeks ago to contain the network, was attended by Maulvi Abdul Kabir, a wanted former Taliban governor, his deputy Sedre Azam and Anwarul Haq Mujahed, an imprisoned terrorist, who were flown to the Afghan capital from Peshawar.

Kabir was the governor of Nangarhar province during the Taliban rule and the current head of the Taliban’s Peshawar council, while Mujahed is a terrorist leader credited with helping Osama Bin Laden escape the US assault on Tora Bora in 2001.Washington and Kabul are reportedly seeking to capitalize on Kabir’s position in Afghanistan’s powerful and dominant Zadran tribe.

An Afghan official said that the US and Afghanistan governments want to try and sap some of Haqqani’s tribal-based strength by bringing Kabir on board and dividing tribal loyalties.

Of course, denials began to fly out of Washington and that the US would not jeopardize the troops with such an unthoughtful occurrence…..me thinks that they protests too much…..and that leads me to think that there is something to these reports….but more…it is a dash, a mad dash to make Patreus look like the miracle worker that he was portrayed in Iraq and to give some padding to the Obama strategy…..

What Is The End Game?

Inkwell Institute

International Studies Desk

That is the question that I have asked from the second year onward….and I am NOT alone….many people are starting to ask that very same question and so far, like me, have not had a good answer to the question……

We have heard that we are in Afghanistan to rid the world of al Qaeda but yet there are fewer than a 100 in the country….or we are there to keep the Taliban from regaining power and let the cycle begin again as it did in 1989 when the Russians vacated the country, but which Taliban?  There are many versions of the movement, some terror related and others just a local movement.  Or we are there to help stabilize a volatile part of the world….would that be a political solution?  In other words we are nation building?

The Congress has just voted on a funding project for Afghanistan…

The last two weeks have thrown an especially harsh light on the war effort, with new reports of corruption in President Hamid Karzai’s government, and a change in the commander of U.S. forces and multinational forces in Afghanistan.

The House-approved bill includes nearly $4 billion in economic aid to Afghanistan and its neighbor, Pakistan.

Still it seemed a wonder the new money for the unpopular war got through the House at all, after long arguments among Democratic lawmakers over whether and how to do it. They set up a complicated series of votes in which the non-military spending passed 239-182, while the part containing the war funding passed 215-210.

Just what is the end game for declaring a victory in Afghanistan and bringing the troops home?  Just what is the “real” reasons that we and our allies are still forcing our troops into such hardships?

If it is the AQ thing, then there are more within the borders of Pakistan than there are in Afghanistan….should not our focus be on Pakistan then?  That will NOT happen!

Okay then, is it the Taleban?  There are about as many Taleban organizations as hair on the back of your hand….some are hard core terrorists, some are just pissed that we are an occupying force and then there are those that are just fundamentalist religious types….which one of these are we fighting?  Is it the word Taleban that we are fighting?  Why not eliminate the hard core and then work with the others?

And then there is the “political” side of the reason for war……let us be honest…the popularly elected (a point of contention) president of Afghanistan, Karzai, is little more than the mayor of the capital, Kabul.

So what is the end game in Afghanistan?  Politicians cannot answer that simple question, then who has the answer?

Change For Afghanistan

Recently I was reading some articles on the change in command for the troops in Afghanistan and I came across an interesting piece written by Patrick Martin…..

There is every indication that the change in command is the result of growing dissatisfaction with McChrystal’s counterinsurgency methods, which have failed to dislodge the Taliban-led guerrilla forces that control the bulk of southern and eastern Afghanistan. It presages a drastic increase in the level of US military violence, and especially the scale of civilian casualties among the Afghan population. Their “crime” is to sympathize with and support the anti-US insurgency.

Petraeus is already, according to one media report, preparing to modify the rules of engagement to allow for greater use of force.

According to a report Sunday in the British Independent, McChrystal had grown increasingly pessimistic about the prospects for success, particularly after he was compelled to postpone the planned offensive into the key southern city of Kandahar, a Taliban stronghold. He reportedly briefed NATO defense ministers earlier this month “and warned them not to expect any progress in the next six months.”

According to this schema, McChrystal had chosen the second and third goals, with the resulting spike in US-NATO casualties and increasing dissatisfaction among the rank-and-file soldiers ordered to take greater risks to avoid civilian casualties. The alternative, the author writes, is to focus on the first and third goals instead: “A state can protect its armed forces while destroying insurgents, but only by indiscriminately killing civilians as the Ottomans, Italians, and Nazis did in the Balkans, Libya, and Eastern Europe, respectively.”

This choice, what the author later calls “a policy of barbarism,” could perhaps be described as “the Hitler option.”  (excerpts from “The Hitler Option”)

I truly hate it when people use thew “Nazi” comparison, it usually turns me off when it is used,  but in this case it could well be used in a proper way.  My next question is, just how accurate is this analysis?  The answer will be in the news of the future……watch the happenings in Afghanistan and see how accurate the prediction or analysis is…..

Good News For Afghanistan?

Inkwell Institute

International Studies Group

Central Asia Desk

It seems that the country of Afghanistan and its bloody little armed conflict is making its way into the news more and more…..recently we  in the US have passed a milestone, that is 1000 troops have been killed in this war.

Further back there has been a back and forth between Washington and Kabul on who is in charge and there was the humor that was the latest Afghan elections….corruption is rampant and that is just the most obvious of conditions in the war torn country.

Now the US has planned the all important push around Kandahar….looking for the hearts and minds of the locals in their attempt to isolate the Taliban….but this operation is NOT looking as good as it once did…..

The offensive had been slated to begin this month, but, as McChrystal admitted, the US has been unable to win the support either of tribal leaders and power brokers or of the populace in and around Afghanistan’s second largest city. The town of 450,000 in the heart of the Pashtun-dominated south is the birthplace of the Taliban and remains a key stronghold of the anti-occupation insurgency.

One result of the US offensive in Helmand province has been increased Taliban activity in Nimroz, the province to the west of Helmand that borders on Iran and Pakistan. The Army Times reported June 11 that Taliban fighters forced out of Helmand have shifted operations to Nimroz, previously considered the most stable part of southern Afghanistan.

There is the real story……the NATO troops move in…Taliban moves out and starts up again…this game of cat and mouse is NOT going to win any long term success for the occupation.

And now the worse news that can be had….

The previously unknown deposits of iron, copper, cobalt and gold are so huge that it could transform the impoverished nation into one of the world’s important mining centers, the report on the newspaper’s website said. (here)

The mineral wealth, discovered by a team of Pentagon officials and U.S. geologists, is scattered throughout the country including in the south and east along the border with Pakistan, where the Taliban-led insurgency is the most intense.

It is said to be worth about a trillion dollars……yes I said the WORSE news!

Why?

What chance does a country that is still living in the 2nd century have at controlling their new found assets?  What are their chances of avoiding the exploitation that is coming?  What are the chances that the US will stay to help protect US business interests?  What are the chances that any cash will be used to further the fundamentalism?

If you listen closely you can hear the Afghan politicians jerking off in the corner…they are drooling and smiling uncontrollably……if you want proof of my thoughts look at other resource rich countries like Nigeria and Bolivia…the corruption will only get larger and the people well get hungrier…….

My question is why now?

The Russians knew about the mineral deposits in 1985 and the US Pentagon has a report about them from 2003…so why is it reported now?  Personal opinion….it will give the US an excuse for NOT pulling out of Afghanistan totally……we cannot let China or Russia get their hands on all that copper or iron or whatever….and if an American company gets the mining nod then someone has got to protect their interests….Right?

Nothing about this announcement smells kosher!

Yet Another Delusional Attempt

There has been a wealth of opinions, including myself, on how to end the conflict in Afghanistan and bring the troops home…..some have been hideous and others just plain stupid….but as always there are those that think it can be done by throwing money at it……

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on Thursday unveiled a long-term, non-military strategy to stabilize Afghanistan and Pakistan that calls for sending more civilian experts to the region.More than a month after the Obama administration announced a military surge for Afghanistan, the new civilian strategy outlines plans to rebuild the Afghan farm sector, improve governance, and reintegrate extremists into society.

It also calls for boosting Pakistan’s capabilities to fight a growing Islamist insurgency and to enhance the US partnership with Islamabad partly through supporting political and economic reforms.

They want to improve governance and farming…okay, let us look at those two specifically…… Opium production accounts for $2.8 billion of Afghanistan’s GDP that is about 25% of the total economy and $2.5 billion is spent on bribes to keep the wheels of government turning, which is about 23% of GDP….there you have it about 50% of the country’s economy is from illegal activity….now I ask how will we improve on that?

Wait!  I am not finished yet!  There is more…Karzai has a new plan to counter the Taliban…..

Afghan President Hamid Karzai said on Friday he plans to offer money and jobs to insurgents to draw them back to civilian life and away from their Taliban masters.Karzai told the BBC the major powers, including the United States, would fund the scheme to tempt Taliban fighters to lay their weapons aside and head home to their communities.

Hardline Taliban supporters, who were members of Al-Qaeda or other terrorist groups, would not be accepted, the president stressed.

The Taliban gives its volunteers higher salaries than the Afghan government can afford to pay its forces, and the president said his project would have international backing to provide the necessary funds.

US Defence Secretary Robert Gates on Friday described the Taliban as part of the “political fabric” of Afghanistan, but said any future role would depend on insurgents laying down their weapons. Related article: Taliban part of ‘political fabric’ in Afghanistan.

The US will fund the project?  Is it just me or does all this sunshine and puppies sound a bit whimsical?  BTW, this has all been tried before and it did not work so well in Vietnam….what is that old saying?  “Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different outcome……”

OOPS! Happened Again!

I have said on many occasions that there are some very good comparisons between Vietnam and Afghanistan….and there are those that think I am mistaken….I understand the whole “stop the Taleban” just as I understood the “Domino Theory” in Vietnam….with that said when you break them down the two wars have more similarities than not….I have talked about the inhospitable terrain…the inhospitable climate….the techniques of war…on and on…..but now let us narrow our analysis to the army of the country……

ARVN–Army of the Republic Of Vietnam (South Vietnam)

Part of the mission in VN was to train the army to fight the North and the US could withdraw and play a supporting role (does that sound familiar?)…..problems arose….ethnicities, non-committal, were the major problems….some units fought well but they were the smaller units like the Rangers, Special Forces, etc….as a whole the army sucked and after many years of trying it sucked even more when the nut cutting came….after all the training and money, the army let the North take the South in less than a month…..all in all the whole war in Vietnam was a massive debacle….so the whole adviser thing was a massive waste of time and resources…..

I know….I know….then what of Afghanistan?

In a report on the Afghan National Army (ANA) which was reported by MSNBC’s Richard Engel who spends his time reporting from Afghanistan….the findings of a new assessment of the ANA….

This is a copy of that report. It was prepared for a briefing for CENTCOM commander, General David Petraeus. It was also copied to his commanding general in Afghanistan. And the military says that it is still a preliminary report, that it’s not final, but that does not change what this says about the Afghan national army, or the ANA.The 25-page study obtained by NBC News says senior Afghan commanders are, quote, “not at war. Many ANA leaders work short days, are often absent and place personal gain above national survival.” The report says Afghan troops simply aren’t leading the fight, but remain dependent on US forces, and show few signs of wanting to take off the training wheels. But what’s striking about the report is that it goes to the heart of President Obama’s argument about the war. When announcing the surge, the president said Afghan forces must be trained and equipped quickly, so American troops can return home. But the report’s section on the Afghan army’s personnel says, “Corruption, nepotism and untrained, unmotivated personnel make success all but impossible.”

And there may not be nearly as many Afghan battalions as the country claims. The report said previous estimates are not believable. “Estimate for soldiers actually in battalions far below reported,” it said. “Example: between 40 and 50 percent in some areas.” And Afghan soldiers still in the ranks have literacy problems, and that “mentally, physically unfit and drug addicts hurt units.”

Perhaps the most controversial finding, however, has to do with timing. President Obama has said he wants the troop surge to start drawing down in July 2011. But the assessment said it will take time to expand and rehabilitate Afghan forces. The report said it “cannot take a year to fix this problem.”

The report is dated from mid-December, and it just goes on and on, mostly complaining about leadership and corruption within the Afghan security forces.

The unpublished report says exactly what I have been saying…..the ANA will NEVER be ready to defend the government from outside agitators….sorry to say…Afghanistan smells like a colossal waste….just as Vietnam was……once again a similarity that does not exist….wink wink….you betcha!  (sarcasm)

A Working Government For Afghanistan?

My readers know that I have serious reservations about the US situation in Afghanistan.

By now most Americans have heard and formed an opinion on the up-coming surge of American troops for Afghanistan.  My take on it is that we will send our troops to the country to help sure up the government, both national and local, to the point that they can step forward and take over the defense against outside influences.

Griff White of the WaPo has an interesting article in the issue of 08 Dec:  he has written that there are two separate government s for some of the provinces in Afghanistan……

The first was appointed by President Hamid Karzai and is backed by thousands of U.S. troops. He governs this mountainous eastern Afghan province by day, cutting the ribbons on new development projects and, according to fellow officials with knowledge of his dealings, taking a generous personal cut of the province’s foreign assistance budget.

The second governor was chosen by Taliban leader Mohammad Omar and, hunted by American soldiers, sneaks in only at night. He issues edicts on “Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan” stationery, plots attacks against government forces and fires any lower-ranking Taliban official tainted by even the whiff of corruption.

Shadow government officials collect taxes, forcing farmers at gunpoint to turn over 10 percent of their crops, according to accounts of officials and residents. Taliban district chiefs conscript young men into the radical Islamist movement’s army of insurgents, threatening death for those unwilling to serve. And the Taliban’s judges issue rulings marked by a ruthless efficiency: With no jails in which to hold prisoners, execution by hanging or automatic rifle is the swiftly delivered punishment for convicted murderers and rapists, or for anyone found guilty of working with the government.

Could we put enough troops in Afghanistan to fight such a development?  I say probably not…..if you look at Afghanistan today….the shadow government is far more successful than the “elected” government….how many troops will it take to change that development?  I do not believe we have enough troops in service to America to make this a win win situation.

New Road For Afghanistan

America has signalled a radical new initiative to bring the Taliban into the Afghan political process as part of growing efforts to achieve a peaceful resolution to the war in Afghanistan.

The US ambassador to Kabul told the Observer that America would be prepared to discuss the establishment of a political party, or even election candidates representing the Taliban, as part of a political strategy that would sit alongside reinforced military efforts to end the increasingly intractable conflict.

The move will cause concern among allies struggling to keep pace with rapidly evolving US policy.

Other ideas being discussed include changing the Afghan constitution as part of potential negotiations, taking senior Taliban figures off UN blacklists to establish dialogue and possible prisoner releases.

The Obama administration’s plan to overhaul the Afghanistan war will include a reinvigorated effort to sap the strength and influence of Taliban leaders by luring away their foot soldiers, according to advisors involved in a painstaking strategy review.

The plan is based on the assumption that top leaders of extremist groups are unlikely to switch sides wholesale and would be unreliable allies if they did. Instead, the revised military effort will focus on eroding the power of militant leaders by drawing away low-level fighters — most of whom signed up for financial reasons.

Key to the strategy, according to administration officials, will be strengthening village elders and other local leaders as part of an overall shift in emphasis away from the country’s central government.

Under the plan, the administration would offer local leaders a variety of tools, including small-scale economic projects and training for local security forces, that they can use to convince insurgent fighters to lay down their weapons.
But the emphasis on local reconciliation reflects a growing belief that a heavy reliance on the country’s central government, led by President Hamid Karzai, has hindered the U.S.-led war effort.

None of these proposals will thrill the now sitting president of Afghanistan, but if it would lead to the American presence being lessened then I say screw him…..let’s get it on.

Afghanistan Moves Forward?

We invaded Afghanistan to get Osama and then to help overthrow the Taleban and bring democracy to the country…at l;east that is how I see it.

How have we done so far?  Well, they have had elections….but unfortunately voting is not all there is to democracy regardless of what GW wanted us to believe.

An Afghan appeals court overturned a death sentence Tuesday for a journalism student accused of blasphemy for asking questions in class about women’s rights under Islam. But the judges still sentenced him to 20 years in prison.

The case against 24-year-old Parwez Kambakhsh, whose brother has angered Afghan warlords with his own writing, has come to symbolize Afghanistan’s slide toward an ultraconservative view on religious and individual freedoms.

Kambakhsh was studying journalism at Balkh University in the northern city of Mazar-e-Sharif and writing for local newspapers when he was arrested in October 2007.

Besides the accusation that Kambakhsh disrupted class with his questions, prosecutors also said he illegally distributed an article he printed off the Internet that asks why Islam does not modernize to give women equal rights. He also allegedly wrote his own comments on the paper.

In January, a lower court sentenced him to death in a trial critics have called flawed in part because Kambakhsh had no lawyer representing him. Muslim clerics welcomed that court’s decision and public demonstrations were held against the journalism student because of perceptions he had violated the tenets of Islam.

No matter how hard we try…somethings will always remain the same.