Tag: Obama

Could There Be A Landslide?

It is likely, most experts and pundits say, that the polls will tighten, making it look like the election is getting closer. However there are a number of factors which, taken together, can lead to a much bigger landslide than the polls predict.

Many of the issues with poll numbers and other predictions have been discussed separately by experts, such as Nate Silver at http://www.fivethirtyeight.com. But usually they are not all put together.

1. The Cell Phone Issue: Many nowadays, especially young people, don’t have land lines, so most of the polls undercount a section of the populace that is heavily pro-Obama.
2. The African American Turnout Factor: Most polls have likely voter turnout models factored in, based on past turnout levels. If, as is very likely, African American turnout is significantly higher this year and even more Democratic than usual, that can change the outlook in states with a large African American population, mainly but not only in the South.
3. The Latino American Turnout Factor: The same is true for Latino voters, registered and energized by the immigrant rights upsurge several years ago. A greater Latino turnout can be enough to change the results in important swing states like Colorado and Nevada, and have a positive impact nationwide.
4. The Youth Turnout Factor: The same applies to younger voters, who likely will vote for Obama in numbers that this year may ssurpass other demographics, and who will likely vote in much higher percentages than previously.
5. The New Registrants Turnout Possibility: Newly registered voters tend to vote in higher percentages than the population at large, and with new registrations breaking records in most states and many new registrants motivated to vote Democratic, this too will improve Obama’s vote. If they turnout in higher percentages than in previous elections, this can improve his vote significantly.
6. The Reverse Bradley Effect: In some primaries, Obama’s vote was measurably higher than predicted by the polls, perhaps for some of the reasons already listed. It also may be partly caused by African American voters who are distrustful of pollsters and describe themselves in improbably large numbers as still undecided.
7. The Enthusiasm Gap: Obama voters have been much more enthusiastic. With the exception of an uptick when Sarah Palin was first named (which has largely disappeared), Republican voters are much less enthusiastic, which depresses right-wing turnout.
8. The Gender Gap: As has been true for many election cycles, women vote in a larger percentage for Democrats. With fears about McCain’s Supreme Court nominees who would support overturning Roe vs. Wade, with McCain’s sneering about women’s “health” in the last debate, and with more women voting in general, this will continue to be true this year. In even higher percentages, unmarried women trend Democratic, and make up almost 25% of the electorate.
9. The Early Voting Factor: More states are doing early voting, offering same day registration and voting, and more people are voting by absentee ballot and by mail, all resulting in increased turnout. Early voting also gives some voters a chance to correct any voter registration problems in advance of Election Day, and will decrease lines on Election Day resulting in fewer discouraged potential voters who turn away.
10. The Money Gap: For the first time in many decades, the Republicans are at a financial disadvantage. It is not as big as sometimes reported when you put all the Republican campaign funds together with right-wing 527 “independent advertising groups, but it is still important. Obama’s campaign is outspending McCain’s in many swing states (and reserving a half-hour for a political broadcast on October 29th on many networks). As well, the millions of smaller donors for Obama provide more people with a bigger direct stake in the outcome.
11. The Party ID Factor: Voters in many states that have voter party ID requirements show large changes in voter party ID, from Republican to Independent, from Independent to Democrat, and from Republican to Democrat. A generic party ID/turnout is factored into many polls, so if Democratic turnout is higher than what is expected for historical reasons, even by a few percentage points, that can have a huge impact on the results.
12. The Playing Offense Advantage: More Republicans Congressmen and Senators are retiring this year, meaning that there are more Republican open seats up for switching. Additionally, Obama is playing offense in “red” states while McCain is playing defense in those same states. The likelihood of any state switching from Democrat to Republican in the presidential race and in electoral votes is slim to non-existent.
13. The Iraq War: The lies of the Bush administration getting us into the war, the exorbitant costs of what has become our longest war, the disgraceful treatment of veterans, the overstressed military families suffering multiple deployments, the failure of most of Bush’s foreign policy, all have led to large majorities of voters demanding that we end the war.
14. The Reality-Based Program Advantage: Obama’s program is rooted much more in the actual needs of voters—on jobs creation, environmental protection and climate change, diplomacy, and health care, to mention just a few.
15. The Distrust of Bush Factor: In addition to his conduct of the Iraq War and the obvious problems he caused leading to the economic meltdown we face, Bush’s repulsive lack of action during and following Hurricane Katrina have exacerbated our general distrust of Bush’s policies, intensifying the desire for change.

16. The Third Term for Bush Perception: McCain’s inability to distance himself from Bush in any meaningful way ties him to the most unpopular President since polls started.
17. The Financial Crisis Reality: Partly due to McCain’s erratic actions and Obama’s calm, measured response to the financial crisis, but also to the generic preference of voters to trust Democrats more on economic issues, and partly to the size and scope of the crisis, this has accelerated and intensified all the other factors.
18. The “Most Important Election” factor: Every election is claimed to be the most important of our lifetime, but this year many more people believe it is and are more motivated to vote and vote Democratic. This is intensified by the financial crisis, by the last eight years of Republican domination, by the Republican Congressional corruption scandals and general incompetence of much of the Bush administration, by major demographic shifts, and by the sense that there is a real opportunity this year to make a difference on our country’s priorities.

Just a thought!

Something To Think About

As voting begins, the opinion polls indicate that Barack Obama is significantly ahead of his Republican opponent, John McCain. It is possible that Obama and the Democratic Party will win the election. However, the Democratic candidate has made only a limited appeal to popular discontent, one, moreover, which avoids any indictment of the social and economic interests which have determined the policies of the Bush administration.

This limitation, which flows from the logic of the class interests represented by Obama and the Democratic Party, is the principal vulnerability of the Democratic campaign. The continuous appeal of the Republican Party to racism and social backwardness, which remain significant factors in the reactionary political climate fostered in the United States, could really be fought and beaten back only on the basis of a direct appeal to the class interests of all working people.

In keeping with the norms of American politics, where no mention of the working class is permitted and the great mass of working people must be labeled the “middle class,” Obama has avoided any class appeal. To the extent that he has sought to capitalize on popular anger, he has to an extraordinary extent done so on the basis of his individual persona. The Democratic Party has sought to exploit the expectation that the election of Obama, by virtue of his personal background, will substantially change the direction of America. This belief is widely held not only in the United States but throughout the world. It is, however, an illusion.

A Historical Day, A Historical Election

Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain face the verdict of U.S. voters on Tuesday after a long and bitter struggle for the White House, with Obama holding a decisive edge in national opinion polls.

At least 130 million Americans are expected to cast votes on a successor to unpopular Republican President George W. Bush and set the country’s course for the next four years on the economic crisis, wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, an overhaul of health care and other issues.

The first polls begin to close in parts of Indiana and Kentucky at 6 p.m. EST on Tuesday. Voting ends over the next six hours in the other 48 states.

All will be sitting on pins and needles, hands will wring, nails will be bitten, many trips to the restroom and then we will eventually know who will lead the US.  Just like only you can prevent a forest fire, only you can pick a president.  GO VOTE!

Those Darn Pesky Socialists–Page 3

The final installment of what a socialist believes.

Energy

1. We call for the development of alternative energy sources including solar, geothermal, wind, hydropower, and biomass to end dependence on fossil fuels.

2. We call for a sliding-scale index which favors low-income people, to ensure that all people have access to utility services.

3. We call for mandatory vitrification (encapsulation) of all spent nuclear fuel, control rods and other waste.

4. We call for a ban on all imports of nuclear materials, whether they are vitrified or not.

Environment

1. We call for public ownership and democratic control of all our natural resources in order to conserve resources, preserve our wilderness areas, and restore environmental quality.

2. The U.S. must immediately return to participation in international agreements, such as the Kyoto Protocol, limiting carbon emissions, and accept a major role in worldwide efforts to control global warming.

3. We call for placing full financial responsibility on private companies for prevention and clean up of their own toxic wastes and for full compensation of workers and residents adversely affected by environmental hazards.

4. We oppose policies that target minority communities for placement of local landfills, toxic waste disposal sites, or incinerators.

5.  We call for strong, enforceable endangered species protection that focuses on habitat-centered protection for plants and animals.

6. We oppose any new nuclear power projects and call for the rapid phasing out of all nuclear power plants, and a ban on the export of nuclear technology.

7. We support the recycling of glass, metals, plastic, paper, and chemicals and the use of recycled materials for public works projects such as roadways, parks, and playgrounds.

8. We call for shutting down waste incinerators and phasing out landfills and especially oppose targeting minority communities for hazardous waste disposal sites.

9. We oppose open-pit mining operations and support the reclamation of land used by mining operations at the company’s expense.

10. We support large-scale environmental restoration efforts.

OMG!  I found one that Obama believes–#1 under energy, but then so does McCain.  Does that mean that McCain is a socialist too.  We are doomed!  (sarcasm intended)

Those Darn Pesky Socialists–Page 2

This is a contuation of a post I started yesterday for those pee brains that are still convinced that Obama is a socialist.

Economics:


1. We demand the immediate withdrawal of the United States from the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the Central American Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA), and oppose the creation of a widened Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA).

2. We call for worker and community ownership and control of corporations within the framework of a decentralized and democratically determined economic.
3. We call for a minimum wage of $15 per hour, indexed to the cost of living.

4. We call for a full employment policy. We support the provision of a livable guaranteed annual income.

5. We call for all financial and insurance institutions to be socially owned and operated by a democratically-controlled national banking authority, which should include credit unions, mutual insurance cooperatives, and cooperative state banks. In the meantime, we call for re-regulation of the banking and insurance industries.

6. We call for a steeply graduated income tax and a steeply graduated estate tax, and a maximum income of no more than ten times the minimum. We oppose regressive taxes such as payroll tax, sales tax, and property taxes.

7. We call for the restoration of the capital gains tax and luxury tax on a progressive, graduated scale.

8. We call for compensation to communities– and compensation, re-training, and other support service for workers– affected by plant and military base closings as stop-gap measures until we reach our goal of creating a socialist society totally separate from the global capitalist economy.

9. We oppose the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the World Trade Organization as instruments of capitalist oppression throughout the world.

10. We demand cancellation of Third World debt.

11. We call for a National Pension Authority to hold the assets of private pension funds, and a levy against corporate assets for any pension fund deficits

12. We call for increased and expanded welfare assistance and increased and expanded unemployment compensation at 100% of a worker’s previous income or the minimum wage, whichever is higher, for the full period of unemployment or re-training, whichever is longer.

13. We support a program of massive federal investment in both urban and rural areas for infrastructure reconstruction and economic development.

14. We support tax benefits for renters equal to those for homeowners.

15. We call for the elimination of subsidies and tax breaks that benefit corporations and all other forms of corporate welfare.

Still do not see much that would convince me that Obama is a socialist. Once again when armed with facts you can dis-spell all the BS coming from the turds on the right.


The Swedish Model

All the chat about the economy and the taxes and the policies of Obama have been called the “Swedish Model”.  Media pundits, talking heads and even some McCain surrogates have said the economic policies of Obama are socialism and some even said it is the model mentioned.  But what does the “Swedish Model” mean?  Is it socialism, is it something to be avoided or is it a myth?

All that said, just what is the Swedish Model?  Here is your answer.

Health care–all citizens receive high quality health and dental care with modest co-payment.  The quality is so hight that even the wealthy opt out for public health care.

Education–Free education is provided to all citizens at all levels, including college, vocational and adult education.  The quality of education is so hugh that even the KIng’s children attend public school.

Job Training–Free training is provided to all citizens who desire it.

Employment–the Swedish government feels that all citizens has the right to meaningful work.  Unemployed people receive benefits, retraining or a job in a public works project.  The unemployment rate in Sweden is about 2.4%.

Social Security–All Swedish citizens will receive a pension from the state, which pays them 75% of their income at the time of retirement.

Housing–For citizens that cannot afford a house, they are given a housing subsidy.  There are no homeless in Swedish because of their housing and anti-poverty programs have been so successful.

So far I have not seen where that is such a bad deal for the people of Sweden.  The US wishes it could provide such benefits to its citizens.  Screw ideology–the people should be the priority of the governement and you may call it whatever you would like.

8 Reasons Why Obama Will Lose

This is a reprint of a piece in the Chicago Tribune written by Eric Zorn.
1.“Bittergate.” Obama has been remarkably disciplined in his campaign, but his one “oh, no, he didn’t!?” moment was a doozy—his unscripted comment in April that “it’s not surprising [that residents of small-town America] get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy toward people who aren’t like them.”

2.He’s played too much defense. Though Obama’s campaign has run bazillions of ads criticizing McCain, they’ve stayed away from trying to raise questions about McCain’s character and his judgment—questions the McCain campaign has been raising relentlessly about Obama and that Obama has had to answer.

It’s absurd, for instance, that more ink has been spilled about the judgment Obama showed in the 1990s when working on education reform with former Vietnam-era radical Bill Ayers than about McCain’s judgment in 2002 and 2003 to cheerlead for the invasion of Iraq.

3.He was more dismissive than responsive to festering issues. When questions came up about Obama’s real estate dealings with crooked fundraiser Tony Rezko, he tried to brush them off with curt denials rather than bury them with documents and comprehensive answers.

Ditto his lackluster and in places inaccurate responses to concerns about his votes on “born-alive infant” legislation when he was in the Illinois Senate and demands that he give a full accounting of his personal and professional interactions with Ayers.

4.He left points on the table. Most of you know about Obama’s sleazy associate Tony Rezko. But how many of you know about McCain’s sleazy associate Rick Renzi? McCain named Renzi, a retiring Republican congressman, a co-chair of his Arizona campaign in January, even though the Wall Street Journal and other publications had reported he was the subject of a federal corruption probe.

Renzi was indicted in February and is facing trial. Yet the Obama campaign, apparently content to try to sit on this lead, hasn’t made an issue of him or of McCain’s friendship with convicted Watergate burglar G. Gordon Liddy, who once urged his radio listeners to “go for a head shot” if federal agents came to take their guns away.

5.Biden’s blunder. Yes, foreign evildoers tend to test new presidents. But when Obama’s veepmate, Sen. Joe Biden, blathered on recently about an inevitable crisis in the first months of an Obama administration, it gave McCain a fat opening to highlight security concerns, one of his few winning issues, and play the fear card.
6.The economy now looks more like a chronic woe than an urgent crisis. This has allowed McCain to settle into an anti-tax, anti-spend, anti-liberal campaign groove that often works for Republicans.

7. Smoke. I’ve never seen a candidate subject to as many nutty rumors and guilt-by-association smears as those about Obama that land in my in-box every day. If enough voters decide in the end that there must be fire somewhere in all that noxious smoke, Obama’s apparent lead will vanish.

8. He’s African-American. Let’s be honest. In this rotten year for the Republican brand, if a white Democrat were sitting in the polls where Obama now sits, this “how he might lose” talk would be absurd.

How Many More Are There?

Federal authorities in Tennessee announced Monday that they had arrested two alleged white supremacists who were reportedly planning a killing spree that would end with the assassination of Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama.

Daniel Cowart, 20, of Bells, Tenn., and Paul Schlesselman, 18, of West Helena, Ark., were charged in U.S. District Court in Jackson, Tenn., with the illegal possession of a sawed-off shotgun, conspiracy to rob a gun store and making threats against a major presidential candidate — the Democratic senator from Illinois.
The two men also allegedly discussed shooting 88 other people to death and decapitating 14 African Americans, choosing those numbers because, officials said, “they have special significance within the white power movement.”

The eighth letter of the alphabet is “H,” and the number 8 twice signifies “HH” — for the Nazi greeting “Heil Hitler.” And 14 is the number of words in a white power slogan: “We must secure the existence of our people and a future for white children.”

They allegedly discussed robbing or burglarizing a gun store to be “more equipped” with firearms and ammunition, and Cowart used the Internet to send Schlesselman diagrams and photos of a gun store in Jackson, Weaks said. On Oct. 20, Cowart allegedly drove from Tennessee to Arkansas to pick up Schlesselman, Weaks said, and the two discussed attacking a predominantly African American school and traveling from state to state to rob and kill people.

I was wondering how long it would take these people before they showed up and started doing something stupid.

Who Will Use Force?

The WaPo has this Robt. Kaiser article

The well-advertised differences between John McCain and Barack Obama on the war in Iraq may obscure a consequential similarity between their hawkish views on the use of American military force in other places.

Just two questions in the three debates between the two nominees touched on the subject, and neither has spoken at length on it during a fall campaign dominated by economic issues. Yet both have revealed a willingness to commit U.S. forces overseas for both strategic and humanitarian purposes. Both agree on a course of action in Afghanistan that could lead to a long-term commitment of American soldiers without a clear statement of how long they might remain or what conditions would lead to their withdrawal.

Both candidates favor expanding the armed forces, Obama by 92,000 and McCain by as many as 150,000. Both speak of situations when the United States might have to commit its troops for “moral” reasons, whether or not a vital American interest was at risk. Both accept what Andrew Bacevich, a retired Army colonel and professor at Boston University, calls the “unspoken consensus which commits the United States to permanent military primacy” — shared, Bacevich said, by leading figures in both parties

Neither candidate has spoken explicitly about how American and NATO forces would get out of Afghanistan.

Sowing The Seeds Of Chaos–Part 2

Is their a statute of limitations in politics?  Apparently so!  The media or Obama cannot bring up the Keating affair because that was 20+ years ago and does not add to the conversation of today’s politics.  But somehow something that happen 40 years ago is okay territory to attack.  Someone explain that logic..  If we are talking about Obama’s thinking and decisions, could we not say the same for McCain and Keating?

The media has become a willing accomplice in this brand of chaos, by allowing the question to go unasked and allowing the McCain surrogates to control that part of any dialog.  It is like they are afraid to ask the question.  Where have the journalist with nuts gone?  Long time passing.

Obama has his drags on the campaign like Ayers, Wright, whoever, but so does McCain with Keating, Singlaub and Palin with the Alaskan Independence Party, with the founder talking about hating the US and the flag, but none of this is asked or reported.  Why?  McCain surrogates question Obama’s patriotism but yet the AIP stuff is allowed to lie undisturbed, even after the president of the party calls US troops in Alaska, An occupying force.  Why is this?

The media hates bloggers and with good reason.  Why?  Bloggers are not afraid to bring up the crap, they do not have to answer to their corporate owners.  They can ask real questions and not let the surrogates control the tone of the debate.  The early morning media is afraid to challenge the McCain machine, bloggers are not.

The media is allowing the McCain camp to sow the seeds of chaos and of hate, by pretending that their questioons of Obama’s patriotism and judgement are valid.  Just once I would like to find a news outlet that has a set of cajones.  The people would be better served and the seeds of chaos would die a natural death.