Breaking News–Syria #2

The Kurds are suffering!  Does any American give shit?  Of course they do not…they would not know mam Kurd if one bit them on the butt.  And yet the MSM has gotten plenty of reporting off their backs…..Sorry but most Americans could care less about the Kurds.

With the mash up with Turkey, the Kurds, Syria, Russia, Iran and irregular forces……there is yet another situation to be considered….

It is possible that a wider war could be simmering…and the US has a problem that needs working on….nukes.

The military situation near the Turkish border in Syria remains in flux, with allegiances shifting quickly amid uncertainty of how everything will shake out. But the fast-moving developments also have drawn attention to a lesser-known fact of US foreign policy: The Pentagon has about 50 tactical nuclear weapons stored in Turkey at its Incirlik Air Base, reports Business Insider. The big question: Is it still safe to keep them there now that US-Turkey relations are fraying? Related coverage:

  • Under review: Officials in the State and Energy departments have begun “quietly reviewing” plans to evacuate the weapons, reports the New York Times. “Those weapons, one senior official said, were now essentially Erdogan’s hostages,” writes David Sanger. “To fly them out of Incirlik would be to mark the de facto end of the Turkish-American alliance. To keep them there, though, is to perpetuate a nuclear vulnerability that should have been eliminated years ago.”
  • In vaults: The bombs have been stored in underground vaults at Incirlik since the 1960s, per a backgrounder in the New Yorker. That goes back to the days when Incirlik turned into a crucial Cold War base. The story says the vaults “hold about fifty B-61 hydrogen bombs—more than 25% of the nuclear weapons in the NATO stockpile.”
  • Old question: Business Insider notes that experts have been questioning the safety of keeping the weapons in Turkey even before the latest developments. “An airbase is a not a fortress; it is not intended to withstand a siege by the host government any more than an embassy might,” wrote Jeffrey Lewis of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at Middlebury College in 2016. The base is less than 100 miles from the Syrian border, where the new conflict in unfolding.
  • Deterrent: A piece at Quartz notes that one reason the stockpile has remained in Turkey all these years has been the hope that it would deter Turkey from seeking nuclear missiles of its own. However, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said last month that he could “not accept” arguments to keep Turkey out of the nuclear club.
  • Still allies? Trump has been threatening to unleash economic doom on Turkey if it goes too far in its Syria incursion, raising the question of whether the two nations are still trusted allies. On Monday, Trump tweeted that Kurds—who were until this month allied with the US but are now allied with Syria because of the US withdrawal—may be deliberately releasing ISIS prisoners “to get us involved. … Do people really think we should go to war with NATO Member Turkey?” he asked.
  • That phone call: The phone call between Trump and Erdogan that set off the recent chain of events is under scrutiny, too. An analysis at Axios suggests that Erdogan “called Trump’s bluff” about the US president wanting to remove American troops from the border region, but that Erdogan also incorrectly thought “Trump would restrain him” in regard to the subsequent invasion.
  • Putin happy: Whatever the US and Turkey hoped to get out of this situation, the real winner appears to be Syrian ally Vladimir Putin, writes James Hohmann at the Washington Post. “He got to sit back and watch the Turks and the Americans unravel five years of success and not only did it not cost him anything, he didn’t even have to try to make it happen,” says a Western military official in the story. Meanwhile, a New York Times investigation alleges that Russian jets have been bombing hospitals in Syria to wipe out the last bit of resistance to the regime of Bashar al-Assad.

It’s not clear this is an immediate problem, but it was enough of a concern that both the State and Energy Departments launched reviews of the plans to evacuate the US nuclear bombs from Turkey soil.

The Pentagon has declined all comments on the matter, and claims no changes at Incirlik. In the past, if US-Turkey tensions started to rise, there has always been speculation of expelling the US from the Incirlik base, an idea favored by Turkish nationalist groups.

I still believe that diplomacy should be the first line of defense not an after thought after the conflict erupts in violence.

Then there are all the reports of the civilian causalities…really?  The MSM picks now to worry about the civilians.

Turn on any US cable news network or click on any mainstream media news story about the Turkish offensive in Syria and you”ll see lots of worrying about civilian casualties. On the first day of the Turkish campaign, all the major networks covered the mass exodus of Kurds facing imminent bombing and invasion, with most also airing the first reports of Kurdish civilian casualties. Everywhere we see expressions of concern for the innocent Kurds caught in the path of Turkey”s onslaught.

https://www.commondreams.org/views/2019/10/11/mainstream-media-suddenly-care-about-syrian-civilian-casualties

Why are Repubs so goddamn crazy?

The newest piece to total bullshit comes from Liz Cheney…..

Republican Congresswoman Liz Cheney claimed in an interview with Fox News on Monday morning that Democrats are to blame for Turkey’s invasion of Syria because they launched an impeachment inquiry against President Donald Trump, despite the fact that the president withdrew U.S. forces from the Middle Eastern nation to give the Turkish forces the greenlight to enter.

“I also want to say that the impeachment proceedings that are going on and what the Democrats are doing themselves to try to weaken this president is part of this,” Cheney, who represents Wyoming and is the daughter of former Vice President Dick Cheney, argued.

“It was not an accident that the Turks chose this moment to roll across the border,” she claimed. “And I think the Democrats have got to pay very careful attention to the damage that they’re doing with the impeachment proceedings.”

(Newsweek)

I surprised this total loser that she did not blame Obama…..I mean that would be closer to the truth than her lame ass statement.

I Read, I Wrote, You Know

“Lego Ergo Scribo”

India-Pakistan Situation

The age old conflict between India and Pakistan over the Kashmir region of the Himalayas is getting hotter and hotter….keep in mind that both these countries have a nuclear capability…..that means they both have bombs in case that statement needed clarification.

Is this new edition of the Kashmiri conflict heading these two into a crisis?

Some think it is heading in that direction….

In August, Pakistani prime minister Imran Khan pledged that he would serve as an “ambassador” for the embattled people of Kashmir, who are besieged by close to a million Indian security forces. And on Friday, he did exactly that, using the world’s largest platform—the United Nations General Assembly— to voice their plight.

Khan excoriated Indian prime minister Narendra Modi and called on the world to prevent a potential “bloodbath” in the disputed territory, where for two months over nine hundred thousand Indian security personnel have imposed a curfew on the Muslim-majority populace. Thousands of civilians, along with hundreds of political leaders, have been arrested.

After Khan’s speech on Friday, Kashmiris took great risk to show their gratitude to the Pakistani leader, coming out on to the streets, setting off firecrackers, and calling for freedom from India. One Kashmiri man told Al Jazeera that he “felt solace” when Khan spoke, knowing that Kashmiris “are not alone.”

New Delhi’s annexation and siege of Kashmir will prove to be strategic blunders. Indian officials and the country’s compliant private media falsely claim that there is “normalcy” today in Kashmir. They also say that the region will see even greater development and investment tomorrow.

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/india-and-pakistan-are-headed-towards-crisis-over-kashmir-86071

In case anyone would like to hear the speech to the UN by Khan…then I am here to help..

But in case you do not have the time to watch…let me help out…..Khan basically called for a war over Kashmir…..

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan addressed the United Nations on Sept. 29 and threatened to change that. Mr. Khan took the 15 minutes of speaking time allotted him and went nearly an hour, using the entire speech to speak of “jihad” over Kashmir and rail against his Indian counterpart, Prime Minister Nehendra Modi

“Jihad” is not a word the world wants to hear from a man atop a self-described Islamic republic that owns more than 100 nuclear weapons. 

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2019/oct/3/prime-minister-khan-threatens-nuclear-jihad-over-k/

Then there are those that look into the possibility of some stupid setting off a nuke in this conflict and just what would such an act bring about?

The U.S. and other nuclear powers should rapidly stop nuclear proliferation, researchers at Rutgers University said Wednesday as they released a study showing that a nuclear war between India and Pakistan could kill 125 million people instantly before causing global mass starvation.

Published in the journal Science Advances, the new research shows that rapidly growing nuclear stockpiles in India and Pakistan, which are currently in conflict over Kashmir, could release 16 million to 35 million tons of soot, or black carbon, into the atmosphere if the two countries escalated their standoff into nuclear strikes by 2025.

“Such a war would threaten not only the locations where bombs might be targeted but the entire world,” said Alan Robock, co-author of the study and a professor of environmental sciences at Rutgers.

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2019/10/03/new-study-warns-india-pakistan-nuclear-war-could-kill-125-million-immediately-then

Nothing good will come from the use of nukes…and yet we are still stockpiling these weapons….India and Pakistan need to settle down and find mutual ground to avoid in stupidity.

I Read, I Wrote You Know

“Lego Ergo Scribo”

What Would Happen If The Nukes Came?

As a child of the Cold War we were confronted almost daily with the possibility of nuclear holocaust…even taught in our schools….our movies and TV shows were about the evils of such weapons use…..

An old evil is waiting…..waiting for its time to be unleashed on the world.

Both the US and Russia have walked away from the Cold War nuclear agreement, the INF, and the word is that both nations are already planning to expand their nuclear capabilities.

Not a good idea!

But the attitudes of the 2 leaders is that they must prepare for nuclear retaliation to gain a peace.

This is a silly notion that seems to be gaining popularity within the Trump White House.

Now what would actually happen if the two nations decided to nuke each other?

There is a wealth of opinions on this notion…the SciFi genre is full of the possible outcomes…..but are predictions even close to reality?

The simulations have been run, and it’s official: even today, a nuclear war between the US and Russia would plunge the planet into a nuclear winter, with clouds of soot and smoke covering the planet.

Globally, temperatures would plunge by around 9 Kelvin (9 degrees Celsius or 16 degrees Fahrenheit) on average, due to the lack of sunlight reaching ground level.

The new model matches one of the best existing models we have, published in 2007. Both reports predict a nuclear winter of several years, upwards of a 30 percent global reduction in precipitation over the first few months, and a cloud of smoke enveloping first the Northern Hemisphere, and then the Southern Hemisphere, too.

“Here we repeat the [2007 nuclear war scenario] using an alternative state-of‐the‐art modern climate model run at higher resolution and with a more explicit simulation of stratospheric chemistry and aerosols,” write the researchers in their paper.

“The use of nuclear weapons in this manner by the United States and Russia would have disastrous consequences globally.”

https://www.sciencealert.com/the-best-simulation-we-have-says-the-threat-of-a-nuclear-winter-is-all-too-real

It is an old story that needs to be retold for a younger generation that has little idea what the results of the use of nukes would be…..plus to call out the thoughtless toads in government that have NO idea what they are doing or who they will effect with their nonsense…..

Be Smart!

Learn Stuff!

“Lego ergo Scribo”

Nukes For China

We have heard all the spurious arguments for the nuke policies for Iran and North Korea……but what about a strategy for a nuclear power and one of our biggest opponents? China.

A diverse range of external stimuli, including technological trends and geopolitical shifts, is leading the strategic community of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to reconsider existing nuclear policy, strategy, and operations. According to Chinese open sources, U.S. global conventional precision strike systems, U.S. missile defenses, and India’s nuclear weapons modernization, among other threats, could shake the PRC’s faith in longstanding nuclear doctrine and posture. The 2013 Science of Military Strategy confirms that “the nuclear security circumstances facing China in overall terms are trending toward complexity.”   In response to such challenges, some Chinese analysts have proposed loosening the no-first-use policy and undertaking quantitative and qualitative improvements to China’s nuclear forces.

A departure from enduring nuclear policy and strategy may also reflect China’s growing power and sense of purpose as it seeks to reshape its surroundings and accelerate the erosion of the U.S. position in the Western Pacific. Indeed, Chinese analysts are exploring Cold War history in Europe, from which they may be drawing lessons about the vulnerabilities of U.S. extended deterrence in Asia. While it remains unclear how and to what extent Chinese nuclear strategy will advance Beijing’s expanding ambitions, the internal debates suggest that China may be increasingly inclined to adopt a more coercive nuclear strategy.

https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2019/07/17/chinese_nuclear_weapons_strategyleaning_towards_a_more_proactive_posture_part_ii_external_drivers_of_potential_changetechnical-military_developments_and_perceptions_of_credibility.html

China continues to confront the US and its Asian allies on many fronts and yet the president is concerned over a country that is not yet a nuclear power…..where is the sanity there?

I believe you ignore China’s nukes at your own peril.

Just Nuke It!

The US is concerned with the nukes in development by nations like North Korea and Iran…..and yet they freely give them technology to nations that are the bane of human society like the Saudis….

So do we want nukes or not?

The report is that nuke warheads are on the decrease….

The number of warheads has decreased over the past year, even as countries continue to modernize their nuclear forces, according to an annual assessment of global nuclear arms.

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute released the SIPRI Yearbook 2019 on the current state of armaments, disarmament and international security.

The report found that 13,865 warheads in existence at the start of 2019 were owned by nine nations: the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, Israel and North Korea.

The year before hosted an arsenal of 14,465 warheads.

https://www.defensenews.com/global/2019/06/16/heres-how-many-nuclear-warheads-exist-and-which-countries-own-them/

All in all this is good news right?

But rest of the story…..

The Pentagon’s inability to win America’s recent wars in any convincing way may be about to become a much bigger problem than anyone realized, as experts express major concerns about a new policy doctrine adopted by the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

US struggles with conventional warfare, despite massively outspending everyone else, and they are hoping to turn that around by using nuclear weapons in America’s assorted conflicts, seeing nuclear war as creating “conditions for decisive results and the restoration of strategic stability.”

This Nuclear Operations document was published online by the Pentagon briefly last week, but was subsequently removed, and approved by the Joint Chiefs, with officials saying it is “for official use only” now.

Experts see it as a substantial change in US military policy, and particularly nuclear war policy. They say in particular this document does not focus on nuclear deterrence, but rather on US nuclear first-strikes as a war-fighting doctrine. That they see nuclear strikes as a potential cure-all is particularly troubling.

It is not clear if it is directly related to the low-yield nuclear weapons whose funding is a topic of major debate in Congress. Some in Congress were concerned that creating more low-yield nuclear arms would make their use a lower-threshold issue.

Though more usable nukes would clearly fit nicely with the Pentagon’s doctrine of using nukes more, it’s not clear that the doctrine is dependent on having lower-yield options, or if the US will just nuke with whatever they’ve got.

(antiwar.com)

Sorry but this type of double standard is typical for American thinking……and foreign policy.

So are the warheads decreasing or are they on the rise?

The Pentagon publishes a report for nuclear stability……

The U.S. military appears to believe it can somehow prevail in a nuclear war, according to a Pentagon document that was briefly made public, and has plans for using atomic weapons in “small and limited” capacities in order to create “strategic stability” for itself in the world.

The document, Nuclear Operations (pdf), describes the current political and military environment and the challenges faced by the Pentagon in strategizing how to most effectively deploy nuclear weapons in war. It was first reported on by the Federation of American Scientists (FAS), which downloaded and released the document on June 19.

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2019/06/20/pentagon-releases-then-deletes-document-detailing-use-nuclear-weapons-restore

Please make up our minds for us….or at least stick to at least one version of the truth…..

Closing Thought–29May19

The news is dire….whether you worry about that damn silly “caravan” or the resurrection of ISIS or those abortions or what the president had to say in his immature megalomaniac way or maybe it is the drama of the day today it was Iran well at least before noon……but there is an old worry that is at high risk and NO one cares……

The International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons may have pushed 122 countries to sign the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons treaty, but a top UN security expert says “the risks of nuclear war are particularly high now, and the risks of the use of nuclear weapons … are higher now than at any time since World War II.” Renata Dwan, director of the UN Institute for Disarmament Research, told reporters from Geneva on Tuesday that the “urgent” issue should be getting more attention, reports Reuters. She noted every state with nuclear weapons has nuclear modernization programs in progress. Dwan also described new technologies and new types of war transforming the arms control landscape amid heavy competition between the US and China.

“How we act on that risk and the management of that risk seems to me a pretty significant and urgent question that isn’t reflected fully in the [UN] Security Council,” Dwan said. So far, the nuclear ban treaty has been ratified by 23 UN member states—most don’t have nuclear weapons—of the 50 needed for it to take effect, per the Hill. The US, Russia, and China, strongly oppose the ban with Defense One describing much uncertainty, and sometimes secrecy, among them. Indeed, a recent PAX report found $116 billion in active contracts between governments and the private sector to design, build, and maintain nuclear arsenals—a figure likely understated, per the Intercept, which reports America’s nuclear modernization program is expected to cost $1.2 trillion by 2050.

Nukes have been a problem since the first one was dropped and then the race to see who could have the most…….and it is still a problem that needs addressing but there seems to be NO taste for arms control in this White House…..

Nukes are still aimed at our heart…as ours are targeted at theirs…time for some leadership on arms control…..

Just My Thought to end my day of serious posting…….when I read stuff like this I think of the guy riding the bomb down in Dr. Strangelove……

Nuke War, What Are The Chances?

40 years after the collapse of the USSR the chances of a nuke war is virtually impossible……right?

Of course, nuclear war is extremely unlikely. Although the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists has placed the hands of its famous clock at five minutes to midnight, that doesn’t mean very much and never has. The fact of the matter is that world nuclear inventories, led by reductions in the United States and Russia, have never been lower, and none of the major powers expects a nuclear conflict in the way they did during the Cold War. To crib a line from Captain Jack Sparrow, however, nuclear war is not impossible, it’s improbable, and a nuclear war could take place in more ways than you might think, sparked by any number of occurrences from a pure accident to an intentional strike.

I’m going to focus here on a war that could involve the United States and its allies on one side, and Russia or China on the other. Nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan, or between a future nuclear-armed Iran and Israel, is unlikely but far easier to imagine than a global nuclear conflict. Indeed, this is one reason Americans don’t think about nuclear war very much anymore: they think it will happen somewhere else. (If a regional limited war takes place, however, you’ll know it: even a small exchange of nuclear weapons will create a global environmental catastrophe that will dwarf Chernobyl or Fukushima.)

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/five-ways-nuclear-war-could-still-happen-10665

With more and more nations wanting to secure nukes the chances of something going wrong and a nuke being deployed gets better and better……and the chance of stupid infecting the leaders of these countries gets better and better as well.

the chances of nuclear war are “higher than they’ve been in generations.”

That was the frightening assessment the United Nations Security Council received last week from UN disarmament chief Izumi Nakamitsu, and it made barely a ripple in the media.

For that matter, Trump’s decision in February to withdraw from a key nuclear treaty, signed amid great hope 32 years ago by Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev, was deemed worthy of about 24 hours of news coverage.

https://www.thestar.com/opinion/star-columnists/2019/04/10/prospect-of-nuclear-war-highest-in-decades-yet-media-ignores.html

As more and more countries pursue nuke power….the chances of a war with nukes grows as well.