What Would Happen If The Nukes Came?

As a child of the Cold War we were confronted almost daily with the possibility of nuclear holocaust…even taught in our schools….our movies and TV shows were about the evils of such weapons use…..

An old evil is waiting…..waiting for its time to be unleashed on the world.

Both the US and Russia have walked away from the Cold War nuclear agreement, the INF, and the word is that both nations are already planning to expand their nuclear capabilities.

Not a good idea!

But the attitudes of the 2 leaders is that they must prepare for nuclear retaliation to gain a peace.

This is a silly notion that seems to be gaining popularity within the Trump White House.

Now what would actually happen if the two nations decided to nuke each other?

There is a wealth of opinions on this notion…the SciFi genre is full of the possible outcomes…..but are predictions even close to reality?

The simulations have been run, and it’s official: even today, a nuclear war between the US and Russia would plunge the planet into a nuclear winter, with clouds of soot and smoke covering the planet.

Globally, temperatures would plunge by around 9 Kelvin (9 degrees Celsius or 16 degrees Fahrenheit) on average, due to the lack of sunlight reaching ground level.

The new model matches one of the best existing models we have, published in 2007. Both reports predict a nuclear winter of several years, upwards of a 30 percent global reduction in precipitation over the first few months, and a cloud of smoke enveloping first the Northern Hemisphere, and then the Southern Hemisphere, too.

“Here we repeat the [2007 nuclear war scenario] using an alternative state-of‐the‐art modern climate model run at higher resolution and with a more explicit simulation of stratospheric chemistry and aerosols,” write the researchers in their paper.

“The use of nuclear weapons in this manner by the United States and Russia would have disastrous consequences globally.”

https://www.sciencealert.com/the-best-simulation-we-have-says-the-threat-of-a-nuclear-winter-is-all-too-real

It is an old story that needs to be retold for a younger generation that has little idea what the results of the use of nukes would be…..plus to call out the thoughtless toads in government that have NO idea what they are doing or who they will effect with their nonsense…..

Be Smart!

Learn Stuff!

“Lego ergo Scribo”

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Nukes For China

We have heard all the spurious arguments for the nuke policies for Iran and North Korea……but what about a strategy for a nuclear power and one of our biggest opponents? China.

A diverse range of external stimuli, including technological trends and geopolitical shifts, is leading the strategic community of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to reconsider existing nuclear policy, strategy, and operations. According to Chinese open sources, U.S. global conventional precision strike systems, U.S. missile defenses, and India’s nuclear weapons modernization, among other threats, could shake the PRC’s faith in longstanding nuclear doctrine and posture. The 2013 Science of Military Strategy confirms that “the nuclear security circumstances facing China in overall terms are trending toward complexity.”   In response to such challenges, some Chinese analysts have proposed loosening the no-first-use policy and undertaking quantitative and qualitative improvements to China’s nuclear forces.

A departure from enduring nuclear policy and strategy may also reflect China’s growing power and sense of purpose as it seeks to reshape its surroundings and accelerate the erosion of the U.S. position in the Western Pacific. Indeed, Chinese analysts are exploring Cold War history in Europe, from which they may be drawing lessons about the vulnerabilities of U.S. extended deterrence in Asia. While it remains unclear how and to what extent Chinese nuclear strategy will advance Beijing’s expanding ambitions, the internal debates suggest that China may be increasingly inclined to adopt a more coercive nuclear strategy.

https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2019/07/17/chinese_nuclear_weapons_strategyleaning_towards_a_more_proactive_posture_part_ii_external_drivers_of_potential_changetechnical-military_developments_and_perceptions_of_credibility.html

China continues to confront the US and its Asian allies on many fronts and yet the president is concerned over a country that is not yet a nuclear power…..where is the sanity there?

I believe you ignore China’s nukes at your own peril.

Just Nuke It!

The US is concerned with the nukes in development by nations like North Korea and Iran…..and yet they freely give them technology to nations that are the bane of human society like the Saudis….

So do we want nukes or not?

The report is that nuke warheads are on the decrease….

The number of warheads has decreased over the past year, even as countries continue to modernize their nuclear forces, according to an annual assessment of global nuclear arms.

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute released the SIPRI Yearbook 2019 on the current state of armaments, disarmament and international security.

The report found that 13,865 warheads in existence at the start of 2019 were owned by nine nations: the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, Israel and North Korea.

The year before hosted an arsenal of 14,465 warheads.

https://www.defensenews.com/global/2019/06/16/heres-how-many-nuclear-warheads-exist-and-which-countries-own-them/

All in all this is good news right?

But rest of the story…..

The Pentagon’s inability to win America’s recent wars in any convincing way may be about to become a much bigger problem than anyone realized, as experts express major concerns about a new policy doctrine adopted by the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

US struggles with conventional warfare, despite massively outspending everyone else, and they are hoping to turn that around by using nuclear weapons in America’s assorted conflicts, seeing nuclear war as creating “conditions for decisive results and the restoration of strategic stability.”

This Nuclear Operations document was published online by the Pentagon briefly last week, but was subsequently removed, and approved by the Joint Chiefs, with officials saying it is “for official use only” now.

Experts see it as a substantial change in US military policy, and particularly nuclear war policy. They say in particular this document does not focus on nuclear deterrence, but rather on US nuclear first-strikes as a war-fighting doctrine. That they see nuclear strikes as a potential cure-all is particularly troubling.

It is not clear if it is directly related to the low-yield nuclear weapons whose funding is a topic of major debate in Congress. Some in Congress were concerned that creating more low-yield nuclear arms would make their use a lower-threshold issue.

Though more usable nukes would clearly fit nicely with the Pentagon’s doctrine of using nukes more, it’s not clear that the doctrine is dependent on having lower-yield options, or if the US will just nuke with whatever they’ve got.

(antiwar.com)

Sorry but this type of double standard is typical for American thinking……and foreign policy.

So are the warheads decreasing or are they on the rise?

The Pentagon publishes a report for nuclear stability……

The U.S. military appears to believe it can somehow prevail in a nuclear war, according to a Pentagon document that was briefly made public, and has plans for using atomic weapons in “small and limited” capacities in order to create “strategic stability” for itself in the world.

The document, Nuclear Operations (pdf), describes the current political and military environment and the challenges faced by the Pentagon in strategizing how to most effectively deploy nuclear weapons in war. It was first reported on by the Federation of American Scientists (FAS), which downloaded and released the document on June 19.

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2019/06/20/pentagon-releases-then-deletes-document-detailing-use-nuclear-weapons-restore

Please make up our minds for us….or at least stick to at least one version of the truth…..

Closing Thought–29May19

The news is dire….whether you worry about that damn silly “caravan” or the resurrection of ISIS or those abortions or what the president had to say in his immature megalomaniac way or maybe it is the drama of the day today it was Iran well at least before noon……but there is an old worry that is at high risk and NO one cares……

The International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons may have pushed 122 countries to sign the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons treaty, but a top UN security expert says “the risks of nuclear war are particularly high now, and the risks of the use of nuclear weapons … are higher now than at any time since World War II.” Renata Dwan, director of the UN Institute for Disarmament Research, told reporters from Geneva on Tuesday that the “urgent” issue should be getting more attention, reports Reuters. She noted every state with nuclear weapons has nuclear modernization programs in progress. Dwan also described new technologies and new types of war transforming the arms control landscape amid heavy competition between the US and China.

“How we act on that risk and the management of that risk seems to me a pretty significant and urgent question that isn’t reflected fully in the [UN] Security Council,” Dwan said. So far, the nuclear ban treaty has been ratified by 23 UN member states—most don’t have nuclear weapons—of the 50 needed for it to take effect, per the Hill. The US, Russia, and China, strongly oppose the ban with Defense One describing much uncertainty, and sometimes secrecy, among them. Indeed, a recent PAX report found $116 billion in active contracts between governments and the private sector to design, build, and maintain nuclear arsenals—a figure likely understated, per the Intercept, which reports America’s nuclear modernization program is expected to cost $1.2 trillion by 2050.

Nukes have been a problem since the first one was dropped and then the race to see who could have the most…….and it is still a problem that needs addressing but there seems to be NO taste for arms control in this White House…..

Nukes are still aimed at our heart…as ours are targeted at theirs…time for some leadership on arms control…..

Just My Thought to end my day of serious posting…….when I read stuff like this I think of the guy riding the bomb down in Dr. Strangelove……

Nuke War, What Are The Chances?

40 years after the collapse of the USSR the chances of a nuke war is virtually impossible……right?

Of course, nuclear war is extremely unlikely. Although the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists has placed the hands of its famous clock at five minutes to midnight, that doesn’t mean very much and never has. The fact of the matter is that world nuclear inventories, led by reductions in the United States and Russia, have never been lower, and none of the major powers expects a nuclear conflict in the way they did during the Cold War. To crib a line from Captain Jack Sparrow, however, nuclear war is not impossible, it’s improbable, and a nuclear war could take place in more ways than you might think, sparked by any number of occurrences from a pure accident to an intentional strike.

I’m going to focus here on a war that could involve the United States and its allies on one side, and Russia or China on the other. Nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan, or between a future nuclear-armed Iran and Israel, is unlikely but far easier to imagine than a global nuclear conflict. Indeed, this is one reason Americans don’t think about nuclear war very much anymore: they think it will happen somewhere else. (If a regional limited war takes place, however, you’ll know it: even a small exchange of nuclear weapons will create a global environmental catastrophe that will dwarf Chernobyl or Fukushima.)

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/five-ways-nuclear-war-could-still-happen-10665

With more and more nations wanting to secure nukes the chances of something going wrong and a nuke being deployed gets better and better……and the chance of stupid infecting the leaders of these countries gets better and better as well.

the chances of nuclear war are “higher than they’ve been in generations.”

That was the frightening assessment the United Nations Security Council received last week from UN disarmament chief Izumi Nakamitsu, and it made barely a ripple in the media.

For that matter, Trump’s decision in February to withdraw from a key nuclear treaty, signed amid great hope 32 years ago by Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev, was deemed worthy of about 24 hours of news coverage.

https://www.thestar.com/opinion/star-columnists/2019/04/10/prospect-of-nuclear-war-highest-in-decades-yet-media-ignores.html

As more and more countries pursue nuke power….the chances of a war with nukes grows as well.

Yet Another Nuke Competition

Our Beloved Supreme Leader has just created another nuke problem for the world……he is just making matters worse in the Middle East…this helps no one that wants a peaceful region.

IST reported a year ago that the Saudis were massaging the Trump ego to get their hands on nuke technology…….https://lobotero.com/2018/02/27/nukes-in-the-middle-east/

Now the efforts of MbS has born fruit….his playing the president and his entourage will give them the tech they need to start a new nuke competition……

The U.S. Department of Energy has approved six authorizations for U.S. companies seeking to conduct nuclear related work in Saudi Arabia, according to two sources with knowledge of those approvals.

Federal law stipulates that companies obtain clearance from the U.S. government for exporting nuclear technology to or engaging in the production or development of special nuclear material in Saudi Arabia.

The authorizations—known as Part 810s, referring to a clause in federal regulations —allow U.S. companies to divulge specific details about plans for working in Saudi Arabia and certain information about the nuclear technology. For example, a company would need a Part 810 to transfer physical documents, electronic media, or the “transfer of knowledge and expertise” to Saudi Arabia, according to the Department of Energy.

It’s been unclear to what extent the U.S. government, and U.S. companies, have communicated with Riyadh about nuclear energy, especially in the wake of the brutal murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi and amid claims by Democrats on the Hill that individuals in the national security community attempted to discuss a nuclear deal with Riyadh without going through the proper regulatory approval process.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/us-companies-granted-authorizations-for-nuclear-work-in-saudi

Iran has been standing with the deal that they inked with Obama even though the idiot in the White House has null and voided it……but now with the tension between Iran and Saudi a new competition will erupt that we will be the cause of and any outcome will be on our head.

What Year Is It?

Good damn question!

I remember when I was a kid in elementary school (yes I am an old fart) when we had the “duck and cover drills”….these were drills we had where we would get under our desks and cover our heads to practice for the impending nuke attack by the Russians.

Not our finest time and I will bet you are wonder just why that came to my busy mind……

First, our president in his tiny brain has taken the US out of the 80s nuke treaty we had with the Soviets……(this post of mine has some info about the INF Treaty)……https://lobotero.com/2018/10/30/the-inf-in-the-rear-view-mirror/

It is 2019 not 1959…..but yet Trump’s bromance, Putin, since the end of the treaty has thump his chest at the US……..

 

MOSCOW (Reuters) – Russian President Vladimir Putin said Russia is militarily ready for a Cuban Missile-style crisis if the United States wanted one and threatened to place hypersonic nuclear missiles on ships or submarines near U.S. territorial waters.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-putin-idUSKCN1QA1A3

That was a scary threat for I was around for the first one and it worried us all daily until it was over.

Remember there was a time when all our major cities we targets for Soviet nukes and likewise for all the Major cities of the USSR.

And you thought those scary days were over, right?

Think again!

Vladimir Putin is seemingly following DC’s lead of late, first by announcing that Russia will, like the US, pull out of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, and now by threatening another mirroring. The Russian leader gave his annual speech, akin to the State of the Union, to the nation Wednesday, and he dropped a warning to the US: If you deploy missiles anywhere in Europe, we’ll not only target those countries, but also America. “Russia will be forced to create and deploy types of weapons which can be used not only in respect of those territories from which the direct threat to us originates, but also in respect of those territories where the centers of decision-making are located,” he said, per Reuters. “We know how to do this and we will implement these plans immediately, as soon as the corresponding threats to us become a reality.”


Putin stressed that Russia would only deploy if the US did first, but that the US should watch its step. “It’s their right to think how they want,” he added. “But can they count? I’m sure they can. Let them count the speed and the range of the weapons systems we are developing.” To underscore his warning, Putin took the opportunity to throw in that testing for two new missiles has been completed, per the Washington Post. Putin ended his speech by noting he hoped to keep the arms conversations going with the US, but that Russia “would not keep knocking on a locked door,” per CNBC. The US and Russia have a six-month period in which they can try to hash out the terms of the INF Treaty before making a final pullout. (Putin has been bragging about Russia’s new hypersonic weapon.)

As an old radio show use to tell us….”Let’s return to yesteryear”……