There is some ominous future looming….even if the reassurance from the president….the near future does not look like it will be as bright as he predicts…..
A new economic projection contradicts President Biden’s hopeful forecast of a minor recession, at worst, ahead for the nation. A Bloomberg Economics model shows the likelihood of a recession beginning at some point before October 2023 at 100%. Until now, the model had the chance of a recession at 65%, Bloomberg reports. With the midterm elections less than a month away, Biden dismissed a downturn as unlikely in a CNN interview last week. “I don’t think there will be a recession,” the president said, per CNBC. “If it is, it’ll be a very slight recession.”
Other forecasts, including Bloomberg’s, have been less certain. An unrelated Boomberg survey of 42 economists found the likelihood of a recession in the next 12 months has risen 10 points in the past month, to 60%. The change in the forecast was attributed to widespread worsening among the data used as the model’s inputs. The model uses 13 macroeconomic and financial indicators in predicting the chance of a recession occurring at points from one month to two years from now. More generally, Bloomberg attributed the growing chances of a downturn to inflation and concern that the Federal Reserve will keep raising interest rates.
An old economic foe has returned and will do little to raise the hopes of the American people…..that old foe is stagflation.
Inflation is back, and it is rising sharply, especially over the past year, owing to a mix of both demand and supply factors. This rise in inflation may not be a short-term phenomenon: the Great Moderation of the past three decades may be over, and we may be entering a new era of Great Stagflationary Instability.
Unless you are middle-aged and gray-haired, you probably hadn’t heard about the term stagflation until very recently. You may have barely heard about inflation. For a long time, until 2021, inflation—the increase in prices year to year—was below the advanced economies’ central banks’ target of 2%. Usually inflation is associated with high economic growth. When aggregate demand for goods, services, and labor is strong, coupled with positive animal spirits, optimism about the future, and possibly loose monetary and fiscal policies, you get stronger than potential economic growth and higher than target inflation. Firms are able to set higher prices because demand outstrips supply, and workers receive higher wages given a low unemployment rate. In recessions, on the other hand, you have low aggregate demand below the potential supply of goods, which leads to a slack in labor and goods markets, with ensuing low inflation or even deflation: prices go down as consumers’ spending declines. Stagflation is a term that refers to high inflation that happens at the same time as stagnation of growth or outright recession.
https://time.com/6221771/stagflation-crisis-debt-nouriel-roubini/
Nothing in economics is showing any good….we are headed for disaster…..and with that will come a change in government and a change that will not be good for the country.
But the GOP is hoping for a recession….makes running for office a dream.
I Read, I Write, You Know
“lego ergo scribo”
