When people are not voicing their thoughts on the conflict in Ukraine and of course go to the next big story the media is pushing….a possible confrontation between US and China over Taiwan.
But the question is will China truly invade/attack Taiwan?
This article looks at the possibility….
Is China really on the verge of invading the island of Taiwan, as so many top American officials seem to believe? If the answer is “yes” and the U.S. intervenes on Taiwan’s side — as President Biden has sworn it would — we could find ourselves in a major-power conflict, possibly even a nuclear one, in the not-too-distant future. Even if confined to Asia and fought with conventional weaponry alone — no sure thing — such a conflict would still result in human and economic damage on a far greater scale than observed in Ukraine today.
But what if the answer is “no,” which seems at least as likely? Wouldn’t that pave the way for the U.S. to work with its friends and allies, no less than with China itself, to reduce tensions in the region and possibly open a space for the launching of peaceful negotiations between Taiwan and the mainland? If nothing else, it would eliminate the need to boost the Pentagon budget by many billions of dollars annually, as now advocated by China hawks in Congress.
How that question is answered has enormous implications for us all. Yet, among policymakers in Washington, it isn’t even up for discussion. Instead, they seem to be competing with each another to identify the year in which the purported Chinese invasion will occur and war will break out between our countries.
Is It 2035, 2027, or 2025?
All high-level predictions of an imminent Chinese invasion of Taiwan rest on the assumption that Chinese leaders will never allow that island to become fully independent and so will respond to any move in that direction with a full-scale military assault. In justifying such claims, American officials regularly point to the ongoing modernization of China’s military, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), and warnings by top Chinese officials that they will crush any effort by “separatist elements” in Taiwan to impede unification. In line with that mode of thinking, only one question remains: Exactly when will the Chinese leadership consider the PLA ready to invade Taiwan and overpower any U.S. forces sent to the island’s relief?
Is a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan Imminent?
I am positive that there are ideas on this eventuality….let them fly.
I Read, I Write, You Know
“lego ergo scribo”
In Saner Thought 
It seems inevitable that China will try to regain Taiwan at some stage, but only when they consider the time is right. I have no idea when that might be.
Best wishes, Pete.
I do not think it will happen in my lifetime….China just does not have the capability. chuq
China has outstripped the rest of the world in almost everything that it would be a walk in the park for them to take Taiwan at will and absolutely destroy anybody or anything that gets in their way.
I do not think China is that stupid….but that is just me…..chuq
China currently lacks the amphibious troop carriers and other sustainment infrastructure that would allow them to seize, hold and expand a beachhead on Taiwan…..certainly for the next 5 years at best. They’re not risk-averse with the lives of their soldiers (compared to western nations), but they’re risk adverse to national prestige….in an era of expanding influence in Central/South America and Africa. They won’t chance an outright invasion any time soon….but they’ve been laying the groundwork for a few years now, in information warfare. Their hope is for a subsumation ala HK or Macau. The chances are not high for that dream.
I agree with you….I am no Asian expert but all I read the likelihood is low. chuq
China has outstripped the rest of the world in almost every thing so it would be a walk in the park for them to take Taiwan and completely destroy anything or anybody that gets in their way and it would only take them about 4 hours to do so.
I’m extremely interested in the force capabilities analysis that led you to this conclusion. I’m not dismissing it out of hand (anything is possible), but it seems wildly out of alignment with everything we know about their ability to launch an amphibious invasion of Taiwan.
Begin with this and do some research at the department of defense websites —
An American naval expert has warned US military planners that the US Navy might lose to China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy, which enjoys a substantial numerical advantage over the US, saying, “the side with the most ships almost always wins.”
Yes, the side with the most ships almost always wins, the side with the baddest-assed air force almost always wins, the side with the best trained and most well equipped manpower always wins …China is hellbent on a never-ending program to overtake the united states in all these areas and is doing one helluva job of doing so … while the doves back at home want us to stand down and refuse to authorize funding for critical weapons systems — and sooner or later we are going to discover that while we have slept, Russia and China have absolutely destroyed our ability to win wars against them …it is only common sense … but go ahead and check out the facts on the internet –comfort yourself with the knowledge that you can find …
I ask because I’m in DoD/Intel. Yours is not the prevailing opinion among China experts, which is why I was curious about what informed your position. But I respect your opinion.
My opinions are rarely if ever informed by prevailing “Expert” analyses but are based on what I call Amorphological analysis — which is a creative thinking mechanism that takes all available data known or learned events (and their elements) from the past events and present situations and juggles those databits, making comparisons among them to find what is most likely reasonable and then uses it’s conclusions (sometimes theoretical) to prognosticate the most logical outcome…and I am usually in a high percentile of accuracy — It is a weird game because everyone who is constantly exposed to what passes for “News” usually disagrees with me … until the events transpire .. and then, in order to protect their egoism they either refuse to engage me on the subjects under discussion again or they distract so as not to admit they were wrong—(Human nature.) It is a little “Let’s use the brain like a computer” game that I play … usually with “I told you so” results for me. — I remember when I was blogging as a conservative and we had a terrible recession during the George W. Bush tenure and I was telling people to prepare to sell their homes (Because they would not be able to afford them under “Bushonomics” and they laughed me to scorn ..Nevertheless the “For Sale” signs sprouted in every neighborhood ….
It seems like people who are stuck in a certain ideological mindset get comfortable in their beliefs and are often not open to entertaining the idea that someone else’s ideas may have credibility or merit — I see this attitude prevailing a lot in conservative circles these days and I call it “Locked-in-Thinking.”
To my way of thinking, it is only logical that China, being on a binge to build themselves up both militarily and economically, would, eventually, express their traditional territorialism through either intimitave negotiations, blockades, or direct military intervention .. which I believe would be concluded in a matter of a few hours …something on the order of What Russia did with Crimea ..only with the Asian flair …(Shades of the Japanese invasion of China during World War 2 in reverse) — But, no matter all that I have said before this, my ideas about International Relations are definitely nothing more than opinions …
That’s an interesting approach. I too, don’t rely on ‘news’ for what informs my position on most world events. I do admit to having an edge not available to the vast majority of Americans. I’ll also caveat that anything I posit in an open forum is carefully considered and internally vetted before I type. Nothing I say can’t also be found in variety of subject matter forums by the public.
Since I run an opinion blog, I rarely vet anything because most of the stuff in open and public forums, while probably somewhat accurate for the most part, are part of the “Running with the herd” syndrome, and all the great people of the world have always resisted “Running with the herd.” I generally write a virulent opinion on something but I always have Creative Potential in the back of my mind as I write …because Creative Potential can often open up new vistas that have as yet remained unexplored for the most part—
When I say vet, I’m referring to the measures I take to not use any classified information. Alternative analysis is part of the intelligence methodology, but facts still remain facts. Logistically speaking, the PLA does not have enough amphibious transport to land and sustain a force on Taiwan, per their own doctrine. Creatively speaking…..they’d largely get their ass handed to them were they to get groggy in the next couple of years.
https://limingslynkz.com/2023/03/23/15182/
Answered already chuq
I tend to agree with Pete… at some stage Taiwan will unite with China. But… even that can be a “maybe” given world events and Chinese leaders will shift and who knows. As for the here-and-now… I don’t play anyone knowledgeable, here in real life or on TV. Yet, this is my observation.
1. China (meaning Xi) is in bed with us and the West, and we them.. economically. There’s a status quo to maintain in China for the local politics, as well as a economy with the West that is making them money.. lots of it.. for building up their military. Xi doesn’t appear to be by nature some authoritarian war monger. He’s a bit of a Maoist Commie on the oppression scale, to be sure. But I see no overt desire to “conquer” anything militarily. Sabre rattling.. sure. Testy fly-bys and naval encounters, of course. I surmise that might be for looks at home given there’s a lot of old Commie committee members that want to keep up the threat of getting Taiwan “back”.
2. Strategically, as Xi is likely witnessing with Russia in Ukraine, an attack on Taiwan would just devastate the place. The Taiwanese economy would be shot to hell, infrastructure destroyed, and what would China inherit in the end but a few million people needing a social bail out on top of having to re-build the damn place from the ground up. Putin doesn’t care how destroyed Ukraine gets because he simply wants a land buffer and agriculture. Destroying Taiwan in a grab for that island is a far different concept. China would want it as intact as possible to be of any value.
3. Likely any treaty with Taiwan might appear to resemble that of the status of Hong Kong after the Brits left… “one country, two systems”. But no one is anywhere near being forced into a treaty with China regarding Taiwan. For now a treaty would be a “a Taiwan surrendering without a fight”.
4. We don’t officially recognize Taiwan as a country since the 70’s to settle China down a bit, yet Taiwan gets our military aid and we sell them defensive weapons willy-nilly. Some, if not all of this, is for appearance… on one hand we are not giving Taiwan diplomatic recognition to appease China, yet we sell Taiwan military equipment to keep China’s belligerency at bay. It’s a strange yet very accommodating relationship for both China and the US that has worked for decades under all the Chinese leaders.
5. Regarding China’s buildup of their military… when compared with China’s historical non-confrontational stance (other than border disputes with neighbors) they’ve not even gotten close to match old Soviet and current Russian stance of military conquests. Seems to me they want a world respect as they advance their economic goals, and a visual military might helps in the advertising… like it has done for us.
6. Nonetheless, the West cannot afford to ignore the economic and military challenge of China so that means we have to be prepared for any nasty scenarios, regarding or not regarding Taiwan.
In other words, the beat goes on… and the status quo regarding Taiwan is maintained.
Nasty scenario is a great term…..they have not been tested so I am not certain they will be as awesome as some think. c huq
I tend to agree with Pete… at some stage Taiwan will unite with China. But… even that can be a “maybe” given world events and Chinese leaders will shift and who knows. As for the here-and-now… I don’t play anyone knowledgeable, here in real life or on TV. Yet, this is my observation.
1. China (meaning Xi) is in bed with us and the West, and we them.. economically. There’s a status quo to maintain in China for the local politics, as well as a economy with the West that is making them money.. lots of it.. for building up their military. Xi doesn’t appear to be by nature some authoritarian war monger. He’s a bit of a Maoist Commie on the oppression scale, to be sure. But I see no overt desire to “conquer” anything militarily. Sabre rattling.. sure. Testy fly-bys and naval encounters, of course. I surmise that might be for looks at home given there’s a lot of old Commie committee members that want to keep up the threat of getting Taiwan “back”.
2. Strategically, as Xi is likely witnessing with Russia in Ukraine, an attack on Taiwan would just devastate the place. The Taiwanese economy would be shot to hell, infrastructure destroyed, and what would China inherit in the end but a few million people needing a social bail out on top of having to re-build the damn place from the ground up. Putin doesn’t care how destroyed Ukraine gets because he simply wants a land buffer and agriculture. Destroying Taiwan in a grab for that island is a far different concept. China would want it as intact as possible to be of any value.
3. Likely any treaty with Taiwan might appear to resemble that of the status of Hong Kong after the Brits left… “one country, two systems”. But no one is anywhere near being forced into a treaty with China regarding Taiwan. For now a treaty would be a “a Taiwan surrendering without a fight”.
4. We don’t officially recognize Taiwan as a country since the 70’s to settle China down a bit, yet Taiwan gets our military aid and we sell them defensive weapons willy-nilly. Some, if not all of this, is for appearance… on one hand we are not giving Taiwan diplomatic recognition to appease China, yet we sell Taiwan military equipment to keep China’s belligerency at bay. It’s a strange yet very accommodating relationship for both China and the US that has worked for decades under all the Chinese leaders.
5. Regarding China’s buildup of their military… when compared with China’s historical non-confrontational stance (other than border disputes with neighbors) they’ve not even gotten close to match old Soviet and current Russian stance of military conquests. Seems to me they want a world respect as they advance their economic goals, and a visual military might helps in the advertising… like it has done for us.
6. Nonetheless, the West cannot afford to ignore the economic and military challenge of China so that means we have to be prepared for any nasty scenarios, regarding or not regarding Taiwan.
In other words, the beat goes on… and the status quo regarding Taiwan is maintained. Same old.
Damn… delete one of these, chuq. Sorry.
Yikes.. first I can’t get it to post from here in the car.. then it posts multiple times. Grr.. sorry, chuq.
No problem….it is always something, huh? chuq
The present situation in Taiwan is beneficial to the Chinese, the people on Taiwan and the USA. There is no compelling reason for any of the three parties to change it.
Taiwan has a thriving high-tech economy and a democratic government. It is an important supplier of semiconductors to both China and the USA. It is a customer for Chinese products and an investor in China. Foxconn, the world’s largest manufacturing company, which employs a million people in China, is headquartered on Taiwan.
The connections between the island and the mainland are growing, and the Chinese government has good reason to hope that Taiwan will eventually be reunited with the rest of China.
If China invaded Taiwan, all the things that would make Taiwan a valuable asset to China would be destroyed.
The only reason China would go to war over Taiwan would be if (1) its government declared formal independent or (2) the US or some other government established bases on Taiwan from which the mainland could be attacked.
Even so, the war would be more likely a blockade of Taiwan than an invasion. Taiwan is not self-sufficient. It depends on trade, especially with China.
There is no reason for the USA to try to change the situation other than to make trouble for its rival, China. But the main reason China is a problem for the USA is that we have allowed our industrial and manufacturing base to decay. Starting trouble with China will not rebuild American industry
Thanx for the comment and your insights….much appreciated chuq
We’ll said.