Tag: Agreements

Climate Agreements

I have been following the climate debate for decades….it all started with Carter and just kept me interested…..I watched the timeline for clean environment pushed forward year after year until we are at the point where 2050 is the target date for a clean environment.

Not to worry there will be another climate summit to reassess that timeline and it will most likely be pushed yet again.

So what do you think of all this ‘kicking of the climate can’?

Personally I think these agreements benefit only one sector…..

https://www.counterpunch.org/2024/03/25/climate-agreements-suck/

Climate agreements suck. There are no real enforcement provisions. Many signatories cheat. Some don’t rep0rt at all. Moreover, reported data is highly suspect. It’s a worldwide scandal recently exposed by YaleEnvironment360.

Evidence of cheating is found in the atmosphere: Global CO2 is on a rampage, skyrocketing upwards like never before, double-to-triple rates of only one year ago, see: CO2 Bursting into the Atmosphere. This is not supposed to be happening. It is twisting the planet’s climate system into a pretzel that doesn’t know which way to turn next. There are plenty of reasons to believe it is going to get much, much worse. The planet’s climate system is already so far whacked-out that it’s breathing fire.

Meanwhile, greenhouse gas emissions are skyrocketing in the aftermath of the much-touted climate agreement Paris ‘15 when 196 countries agreed to cut to net zero. Oops, wrong, many signatories are “net nothing.”

There is compelling evidence that signatory nations to Paris ’15 don’t give a damn about the agreement or care about Hot House Earth as they cavalierly undercount, when they do report, or they simply refuse to report. As a result, UN climate goals go straight into the trash, worthless.

A little history….the first worldwide climate summit was in 1979….the mandate was “a better understanding of the climate system and the causes of climate variability and change” and “to determine the predictability of climate; and to determine the effect of human activities on climate”.  In practice, the program aims to foster initiatives in climate research which require or benefit from international coordination and which are unlikely to emerge from national efforts alone.

And that agreement has been sliding down the toilet ever since.

So yeah climate agreements suck because it means nothing to the polluters because government will have their backs….until the bitter end.

And that end is not that far away…..but the profits will flow and the planet will eventually burn.

I know a bit dramatic….but what the Hell someone had to say it.

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

Minsk II

What started this most recent conflict?

The tensions between the two combatants go back to the early days of the post-Soviet era…..

Relations between Kyiv and Moscow often were marked by a chill even during the years immediately following the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991. Similarly, Ukraine’s internal political, economic, and ideological tensions were evident early on. Indeed, openly secessionist sentiments in both Crimea and the Donbas surfaced in the 1990s. Populations in both regions chafed at being ruled by nationalist, anti-Russia elements based in western Ukraine. Instead, they sought greater respect for Russian as an official second language in Ukraine and wanted closer overall cultural and economic ties with Russia. The current armed conflict has deep and tangled roots, ones that bear elucidation.

UKRAINE’S SUDDEN independence in late 1991 left both Moscow and Kyiv unprepared to deal with each other. That sudden shift in the conditions governing their relations led to an often icy and contentious bilateral relationship during the 1990s. While the creation of the Commonwealth of Independent States did prevent a total split between Kyiv and Moscow, Ukraine’s newfound independence occurred against the background of persistent attitudes among both Russian elites and ordinary citizens that Ukraine, like Belarus, is part of one “Greater Russia.” That perspective later became a very prominent and persistent theme in Putin’s speeches and policies, but it was visible much earlier. Even Russian president Boris Yeltsin asserted Russia’s right to raise border issues with the other states emerging from the carcass of the USSR—especially with those countries that had significant Russian minorities, such as Ukraine with its heavily Russified eastern regions. As such, disputes arose quickly between the two newly independent countries.

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/russia-ukraine-tensions-flared-early-post-soviet-era-201919

There are many reasons but some are pointing to the Minsk II agreement as the start of this most recent thing.

The year is 2015 and Minsk II was an agreement that was reached between warring factions in Ukraine…..

But what is it?

It was an agreement reached by Ukraine, Russia France and Germany……points were signed….

13 points of agreement….

  • Immediate, comprehensive ceasefire.
  • Withdrawal of heavy weapons by both sides.
  • OSCE monitoring.
  • Dialogue on interim self-government for Donetsk and Luhansk, in accordance with Ukrainian law, and acknowledgement of special status by parliament.
  • Pardon, amnesty for fighters.
  • Exchange of hostages, prisoners.
  • Humanitarian assistance.
  • Resumption of socioeconomic ties, including pensions.
  • Ukraine to restore control of state border.
  • Withdrawal of foreign armed formations, military equipment, mercenaries.
  • Constitutional reform in Ukraine including decentralisation, with specific mention of Donetsk and Luhansk.
  • Elections in Donetsk and Luhansk.
  • Intensify Trilateral Contact Group’s work including representatives of Russia, Ukraine and OSCE.

For those interested in this agreement……

https://www.chathamhouse.org/2020/05/minsk-conundrum-western-policy-and-russias-war-eastern-ukraine-0/minsk-2-agreement

I think the media ought to analyze this agreement to see if there is something there that provoked this current conflict.

Why a civil war in Ukraine? Historically, Ukraine was cobbled together first by the Russian Empire, then the Soviet Union over 4 centuries, containing disparate peoples. The main ones were the Western leaning, Ukrainian speaking people in the north and west, and the Russian speaking in the east and south.

Their relationship was always toxic, but under Soviet rule relative peace prevailed. Once freed from Soviet rule in 1999, the tension between the two disparate groups resurfaced. Fifteen years on the U.S. essentially blew up whatever chance for peaceful resolution by aiding a coup which violently removed Russian leaning President Yanukovych, replacing him with an ultra nationalist government under Petro Poroshenko.

Thus began the civil war in the Donbas that has killed over 14,000 Ukrainians in Kiev’s effort to subjugate and marginalize the hated Russian leaning Ukrainians. And leading the carnage for the past 3 years is current president Volodymyr Zelensky. Calling him the new Churchill doesn’t quite fit.

Minsk II: Two Words You’ll Never Hear on Mainstream News

The agreement was open to interpretation and thusly open to violations…..

Under the agreements, Ukraine wants Russia and its proxy forces to withdraw and allow Ukraine to take back control of the border before the proposed local elections under international standards take place. Then, instead of granting the territories the special status that Russia has argued for, Kyiv would give the territories some extra powers but essentially incorporate them into its existing decentralisation programme.

Ukraine’s interpretation of the agreement envisions alterations to some of the prickliest political elements, but in doing so, it negates what Russia has shown it wants from Minsk – the ability to continue to control the territories and through them have a say in Ukraine’s national affairs on an ongoing basis.

If Ukraine fulfilled Russia’s interpretation of the agreements, it would give the occupied region special status. In Russia’s eyes, this would include its own police force, described as a ‘people’s militia’; the right to choose judges and prosecutors; support from Kyiv of the region’s transnational cooperation with Russia; amnesty for anyone involved in the fighting on the Russian side; and elections. All of this would happen before the Russian-controlled and Russian forces withdrew.

https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/odr/russia-ukraine-what-are-the-minsk-agreements/

And 7 years later we have the dire situation that is tearing Ukraine at the seams.

For more information and opinion on the Minsk agreements….

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/what-are-minsk-agreements-ukraine-conflict-2022-02-21/

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I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

Sino-Iranian Agreement

While the US is playing silly games with Iran like our newest attempt….

the Trump administration announced new sanctions on Iran under the guise of enforcing stipulations of the 2015 nuclear deal, an agreement the US withdrew from in 2018. The US is taking these measures unilaterally, with virtually no international support. The move is not only rejected by the UN Security Council but also by key European allies like the UK, Germany, and France.

President Trump signed an executive order on Monday that is meant to replace a UN arms embargo on Iran that will expire in October. The executive order allows the US to impose sanctions on any individual or entity that sells weapons to Iran.

Announcing the new measures, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo insisted on calling the new sanctions “UN sanctions,” even though a US bid to extend the embargo failed miserably in the UN Security Council. “The President’s executive order announced today gives us a new and powerful tool to enforce the UN arms embargo and hold those who seek to evade UN sanctions accountable,” Pompeo said.

(antiwar.com)

Like I said silly games……

While the idiots in our foreign policy machine are thumping their chests like sex crazed primates the Chinese have entered into an agreement with the government of Iran…..

Rouhani government must show some achievements after more than seven years of office and the Sino-Iranian agreement might be a way for them to say to its people to just wait a little bit more because things will get better. And things in Iran may indeed be better, as the leaked information reveals that one of the terms of the agreement stipulates a Chinese investment of almost $ 400 billion in the oil, gas and petrochemical industries in Iran. Despite this, the deal is so controversial that even some of Iran’s politicians and government media have criticized it. For example, a headline in the newspaper Arman Melli claims that Iran is not Sri Lanka, while an article in the newspaper Hamdeli daily asked whether Iran will become a Chinese colony.

The agreement would vastly expand Chinese presence in banking, telecommunications, ports, railways and dozens of other projects in Iran. In exchange, China would receive a regular and heavily discounted supply of Iranian oil over the next 25 years. Furthermore, it will deepen the military cooperation, and even potentially giving China a foothold in a region that has been a strategic preoccupation of the US for the last decades, which holds a major naval basis there. It is not a new phenomenon and, for example, in December 2019 the two sides together with Russia conducted a four-day joint naval exercises in the Indian Ocean and the Gulf of Oman. And almost 10 years ago the Major General Zhang Zhaozhong commented that China will not hesitate to protect Iran even with a third world war.

Opinion – The Sino-Iran 25 Years Agreement: Why, and Why Now?

So while the US is strutting around like a dickless rooster ….China is expanding its economic base….something Trump has been promising since 2016 and as of yet we have NOT seen any success.

The US needs to learn the fine art of diplomacy again….in the last 3 years it has been replaced with mindless promises and lies.

Maybe the next generation can learn from our mistakes because we are not learning a goddamn thing.

Why do I say the “next generation”? 

This agreement is a 25 year plan…..maybe by then the idotsi will no longer be in control.

I Read, I Write, You Know

“lego ergo scribo”

Where’s The Door?

The wait is over!

There has been much speculation on what the prez will say on the Paris Agreement……we now have the answer….

President Trump announced Thursday that the US will immediately cease “all implementation” of Paris climate change accord standards, the AP reports. “In order to fulfill my solemn duty to protect America and its citizens, the United States will withdraw from the Paris climate accord but [begin] negotiations to reenter either the Paris accord or an entirely new transaction under terms that are fair to the United States,” Trump said, per CNN. “We’re getting out.”

While introducing Trump in the Rose Garden, Vice President Mike Pence said Trump is “choosing to put American jobs and American consumers first” with his announcement that the US will withdraw from the Paris accord. Pence praised Trump’s leadership and said Trump is “is choosing to put the forgotten men and women of America first.”

There has been applause and there have been sighs……but with all that what is next?

Here’s what else you need to know about Trump’s decision:

  • First, Fortune explains the Paris climate agreement. The gist is that countries agree to work toward keeping the global average temperature from rising 3.6 degrees over the pre-industrial average, at which point scientists believe the effects of climate change would be irreversible.
  • In a statement, Al Gore called Trump’s decision “reckless and indefensible.” But he adds the transition to clean energy will be continued by mayors, governors, the business community, and the American people.
  • Bill McKibben, writing for the New York Times, calls withdrawing from the agreement “our nation’s dumbest act since launching the war in Iraq” and one that hurts not only civilization’s ability to survive climate change but also civilization itself by undermining both diplomacy and science.
  • Pascal-Emmanuel Gobry in the Week counters that outrage over the decision is “absolute nonsense” in that the agreement was weak and ineffectual, with countries left to set their own goals for reducing emissions. (Though he also says withdrawing from it won’t do anything to add jobs in the Rust Belt.)
  • President Obama says leaving the Paris climate agreement is a rejection of the future, leaving the countries that remain to “reap the benefits in jobs and industries created,” the Hill reports.
  • Elon Musk is leaving Trump’s presidential advisory council over the decision, tweeting, “Climate change is real.”
  • Weather.com was also, clearly, not a fan of the decision. Below a livestream of Trump’s press conference, it ran stories about “Antarctica turning green” and “California’s coast disappearing into the sea” in an effort to get the American public to care about climate change.
  • Finally, Quartz reports a US not fully committed to reducing emissions may have actually hurt the climate agreement more by staying in it. “It is a club for countries who are part of a global effort to tackle dangerous climate change … The US no longer meets these admission criteria,” says a member of Ireland’s Climate Change Advisory Council.

Now you have everyone’s opinion and now mine.

Trump pulled out with hope that the conversation would change from all the stuff about the Russian connection (it will fail)…..of course he invoked the magic word……you can sell the American people any stupid idea as long as you use the word…….”JOBS”.

The agreement was self-regulating by each country…..it is non-binding…..That means that it had NO regulatory teeth….just how sis this agreement hurt American jobs?  This is not a big deal but it will take the US off the table and turn over leadership to some one else…..that in my opinion is not a wise decision.

What can the world do with trump’s newest decision…..

As I have previously written, under Trump the United States has ceded whatever lingering threads of global leadership it had not already shredded by pointless wars of aggression and financial doomsday devices; we are now something of a pariah state. On climate change, it now falls to Europe, China, and India to corral this blundering, addled elephant of a nation, until our janky political machinery can eject Trump and the Republican Party from power. Here’s how they can do it.

Source: How the world can contain Trump’s climate lunacy

America cannot be first if they are not part of the conversation.

Why NATO Needs A European Pillar

If you followed the last election then know that our newly elected president has no love for NATO…..he even called it “obsolete”…..

There is a scramble going on the try and find a way to preserve the organization if the US somehow takes a powder and leaves the European allies high and dry.

Below is a opinion from the International Crisis Group (ICG) on the situation with NATO……

If Europe tries to protect the alliance only by ‘buying’ American commitment through increased defence spending, it will fail.

Europeans have every reason to worry about U.S. President Donald Trump. He has declared NATO “obsolete.” He’s spoken more glowingly about Russian President Vladimir Putin than about most Western European leaders. And he’s suggested he will apply his transactional vision of diplomacy to his country’s alliances. A president who has unabashedly made “America First” his guiding principle is telling Europeans America’s commitment to them will depend on their willingness to pay for it.

The Continent’s leaders should listen carefully. For too long, European countries have not been serious enough about their own defence; most spend much less than the two per cent of GDP goal set by NATO. If they do not change course, a president who has little understanding of soft power and, in his own words, only respects “strength,” will not take them seriously.

Source: Why NATO Needs A European Pillar | Crisis Group

Although it is early in the presidency of Trump….but so far the fate of NATO is still up in the air.