The Future Of Iran

Protests are still going on in Iran and contrary to what that moron in the White House has said it is not about the money that Obama gave Iran which by the way was Iranian money that had been frozen in 1979 it was NOT taxpayer money…..these protests are the Iranian people tired of the foreign adventurism of the government they want the money to be spent at home not in Lebanon or Syria or Iraq or anywhere else….

But all that aside what is being said about the future of Iran?

Protest movements in the Middle East face enormous repressive hurdles and rarely have happy endings. Even when protesters “succeed” in toppling an autocrat, they’ve rarely succeeded in ending autocracy.

In Iran, the obstacles to success are daunting. Whereas most Middle Eastern countries are ruled by secular autocrats focused on repressing primarily Islamist opposition, Iran is an Islamist autocracy focused on repressing secular opposition. This dynamic—unarmed, unorganized, leaderless citizens seeking economic dignity and pluralism, versus a heavily armed, organized, rapacious ruling theocracy that espouses martyrdom—is not a recipe for success.

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/12/the-battle-for-iran/549446/

Or maybe this…….

Iran has often seemed to be on the brink of democracy. During the twentieth century, the country experienced three major political upheavals: the Constitutional Revolution of 1905–11, the oil nationalization movement of 1951–53 and the Islamic Revolution of 1978–79. Each differed from the others in important ways, but all constituted a reaction to corruption, misrule, and autocracy. They all reflected the spread of literacy, the rising expectations of a growing middle class, and the impatience of a wealthy business community with official mismanagement. They were all characterized by an aspiration for some form of democratic government. Yet each time, that aspiration was disappointed.

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/reviews/review-essay/2017-12-12/reform-or-revolution?cid=nlc-fa_fatoday-20180101

The American Conservative also has touched on the Iranian protests……

Protests broke out in several cities across Iran last week:

The demonstrations began Thursday to oppose high unemployment and rising costs, including a 40 percent jump in the price of eggs. But they swiftly expanded to take on a system many protesters have said is corrupt.

“Down with the dictator!” some demonstrators chanted, as they tore down posters of the supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, in central Tehran. Protesters defied police from Kermanshah in the west to the holy city of Qom in the north and Ahvaz southwest of the capital, according to footage uploaded onto social media. Many of the images could not be confirmed.

http://www.theamericanconservative.com/larison/the-iranian-protests/

I do not think that too much should be read into this situation….it is an opportunity for the government, Iranian government to have a dialog with the people….but if substantial change is looked for then all will be disappointed.

Let’s get it clear right from the beginning: we don’t know what’s happening in Iran. We don’t know who’s leading the demonstrations, which are turning into riots in some parts of the country. We don’t know who, if anyone, is directing them.

Yes, yes, I know: you want me to explain what’s happening, and if it’s a Good Thing or a Bad Thing. But I’m not going to lie to you: I don’t know – and neither, at this point, does anyone else.

Here in the West, three views have taken root among the commentariat (and, of course, among US government officials: 1) This is a heroic attempt by the freedom-starved people of Iran to – finally! – overthrow the theocracy that has fastened itself on to the nation like a giant parasite. Purveyors of this view cite (sketchy) reports of Iranian demonstrators chanting “Death to Khamenei!”, “We don’t want a theocracy!,” and other anti-clerical slogans. This is the approach taken by the neoconservatives, such as Bill Kristol, shown here on MSNBC declaring that “The Iranian people want freedom” and that’s all there is to it.

http://original.antiwar.com/justin/2018/01/03/iranian-rebellion-everybodys-wrong/

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3 thoughts on “The Future Of Iran

  1. Iran is a large populous country with a complex social structure, and an imperial past as the heart of the Persian Empire. I think we should not be looking at any situation there based on western values.
    Best wishes, Pete.

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