Can Qatar Situation Be Solved?

As the situation with Qatar and the Saudis continues there seems to be No break in the events that are spiraling….someone has got to step up and take a hold on this situation…it could become ugly at any moment…..

Is there a resolution or is there not?

On Monday 5 June, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, and Egypt cut ties with the Gulf state of Qatar, claiming Doha’s regional policies were fueling extremism and terrorism. Within days, other states severed or downgraded ties and the rift appeared to be widening.

A week earlier, Gulf media—including social media—had erupted amid reports that Qatari Emir, Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, made critical remarks against America in a speech, as well as offered support for Iran and backing to Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood. Qatari officials denied the reports and countered that state media had been hacked. As that crisis quickly turned into a rift with Qatar’s Gulf and Arab neighbors, the need for serious mediation to head off further trouble became obvious.

Source: GCC crisis: How to resolve the diplomatic rift | Brookings Institution

I think all avenues should be explored before this situation turns ugly.

I recently asked the question…..did this have anything to do with the Trump visit?  I think so…..especially the events in Saudi Arabia recently……

Quick, name a candidate favored by President Trump who scored a victory this week. Sure, Karen Handel in Georgia and Ralph Norman in South Carolina come to mind, but the New York Times points out another: Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia. It wasn’t an election, of course, but he was named the new successor to the throne in his country, and the Times explains how Mohammed has emerged as an important ally of the Trump administration. One sign: The 31-year-old dined at the home of Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump on a visit to DC, then returned the favor by hosting them on their visit to Saudi Arabia. Among other things, he favors a hard line against Iran and is leading the Saudi move to punish Qatar for its purported support of terrorism. Other coverage of the prince:

  • Fast rise: Mohammed effectively assumed control of the nation’s economic and defense policies in 2015, the same year his father took the throne, reports MarketWatch. Given that his father is 81, his ascension to crown prince raises the prospect that Saudi Arabia might have a king in the not-too-distant future who would rule for decades.
  • Nickname: He goes by MBS (or MbS), notes the AP in a profile of the “bold and ambitious risk taker.” The Washington Post has different adjectives used by detractors: “reckless and impulsive.”
  • Changing country: The Wall Street Journal assesses, noting the shakeup comes at a crucial point in modern Saudi history. “Low oil prices and mounting demographic pressures are tearing at the kingdom’s fragile social contract, making change even more urgent and political unity at the top a greater priority.” The king’s decision to replace his 57-year-old nephew with his son as successor was seen by close observers as inevitable.
  • Risk for US: That he shares Trump’s hawkish views on Iran might carry a risk for the US, analysts tell Reuters. Expect the Iran-Saudi Arabia hostility to intensify, which could make it more likely for the US to be “dragged deeper into the Sunni-Shi’ite conflict playing out across the Middle East.”
  • Worried: There may be some “quiet muttering” in Saudi Arabia about the the move, but don’t expect a challenge because the king’s decision is absolute, writes the Brookings Institution’s Bruce Riedel at Al-Monitor’s Gulf Pulse. “The longer-term costs of upsetting the legitimacy of the line of succession in the midst of low oil prices and regional tensions are much more worrisome,” he adds. “The young prince is poised to inherit a kingdom under stress at home and abroad.”
  • Oil markets: Traders are taking a leery, wait-and-see approach in regard to the world’s biggest oil-producing nation, reports CNBC. Older generations of rulers have let “seasoned technocrats” run the nation’s oil industry, notes the New York Times, but Mohammed is expected to exert more control.
  • Unique system: Need a primer on Saudi Arabia’s monarchial system? Slate provided one in 2015 when current King Salman took over. Any king must be a male descendant of the first king, Abdulaziz, who died in 1953. That has made for a line of relatively old successors up until now.

Qatar is just an extension of the new US policy for the Middle East…..administered by the Saudis.

A recent article in a pro-Russian site throws water on this blockade….

Speaking to the media in his latest tour to the US, Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister insisted that there was no blockade of Qatar, yet he insisted that the latter was not allowed to use their, as also of their allies’, air space and territorial waters. Standing next to the rather reticent US secretary of the state, Rex Tillerson, he said that “Qatar was free to go” and yet the Qatar airways was not allowed to use Saudi air space. Whereas the delicate difference the Saudis seem to be making between their policy and those of other countries, who the former would have wanted to impose identical restrictions on Qatar, is a reflection of Saudia’s limits, it also shows that the House of Saud has rather shot itself in the foot by opening a solo-front against Qatar, a country that nevertheless has a big American military base and has on its side a powerful Arab ally, Turkey. What the whole episode has brought unmistakably to the forefront is that there exist a number of countries within the “Sunni coalition” who do not see eye to eye with Saudi policies and are more comfortable in following rather independent course of action.

4 thoughts on “Can Qatar Situation Be Solved?

  1. Could this whole thing not just be about oil prices? Instability, or even better, war, in the main oil-producing regions will soon hike up the slumped prices. Cal me cynical, but…
    Best wishes, Pete.

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