Month: October 2016

Trapped Between The Moon And Syria

Hey this election is NOT long on ideas for the fighting in Syria…but the one that seems to get more attention than it deserves is something that Clinton seems to champion during her dash to the White House…..a No-Fly Zone.

The first time I wrote about this horrendous idea was when Libya was in revolt……

Source: How About That “No Fly” Zone? – In Saner Thought

And we see how well that worked huh?

Then last year the idea was floated for Syria……

Guess what idea is making the rounds with the people that have failed to contain ISIS?  (I’m waiting…..the title can help if you are suffering from brain farts)….

There are those in the US and elsewhere that are pushing the idea of a “no fly zone” or a “buffer zone”…the excuse is that it will help protect innocent civilians from the ravaging of war……(I have my doubts on the validity of the promise)…..

Source: Syria: “No Fly, Schmo Fly” – In Saner Thought

I have been pointing out the lack of thought this plan is……and yet with all the info available it seems that it is still an idea that will not die…..

Much was made in this week’s Commons debate on Syria of the need for a no-fly zone over Aleppo. Given that the Syrian government and the Russians have a monopoly of air power over the city, the idea of denting or deterring it might seem attractive. Hillary Clinton also advocated such a zone in Sunday’s presidential TV debate.

In 1991 the US and Britain imposed a successful no-fly zone over northern Iraq to protect the Kurds. But they were already at war with Saddam Hussein, having just defeated him in Kuwait. Saddam was on his own internationally, despised and isolated. He had no support from Russia or any Arab allies. The last thing he wanted was to confront the US any further. Enforcing a no-fly zone (even though it had no clear UN security council authorisation) involved no risk to the US or UK. Saddam made little effort to resist and not one of their manned aircraft was shot down.

Source: A no-fly zone for Aleppo risks a war that could engulf us all | Jonathan Steele | Opinion | The Guardian

Maybe that is what the plan is all along…..draw Russia into a real confrontation…..but is a war in Syria really in America’s best interests?

The calls for U.S. military action against Syrian government forces have become more vociferous in recent weeks, as outrage over the current Russian and Syrian military offensive in rebel-held eastern Aleppo mounts. The calls are not new: critics have been urging President Barack Obama to become more involved in the Syrian civil war since it began in 2011, and have since become louder amid glaring human rights abuses.

Source: Is War in Syria in America’s Interest? | The National Interest

Thoughts?

 

Libya: What Went Wrong?

It has been 5 years since the rule of Qaddafi came to an end…..what began as a popular uprising against a dictator descended into chaos….and what started out as the promise of a more democratic government quickly went south and into the typical death and destruction of the War on Terror…..

It has been nearly five years since Libyan leader Col. Moammar Gadhafi was captured and killed by Libyan rebels near his hometown of Sirte on Oct. 20, 2011. Sadly, Libya remains a deeply divided country, both politically and institutionally, and does not have a functional representative government in place. Tragically, Libya’s democratic transition process failed to create an environment conducive for democracy and the rule of law. Instead, Libya became a country where militias ruled, extremist groups flourished and living conditions deteriorated significantly. The country also suffers from a major political crisis, with various competing governments each claiming legitimacy and control over key institutions such as the Central Bank, the National Oil Corporation and the Libyan Investment Authority.

Today, Libyans are forced to choose between two extremes: either chaos with militias and Islamist extremists as the dominant forces, or military rule. No other convincing options are on offer. The choice is quite clear in Libya’s eastern region of Cyrenaica (Barqa in Arabic), where the military is now the dominant armed and political force on the ground, expanding its control over democratically elected and civilian institutions without any public opposition and with clear public support for their actions. On June 19, the president of the Libyan parliament in Tobruk, in his claimed capacity as supreme commander of the armed forces, declared a state of emergency and appointed the Libyan National Army Chief of Staff Abdulrazaq Nadori as military governor for the eastern region. Nadori now has the power to appoint civilian and military committees and can replace local municipal councils with military governors. He also can prohibit demonstrations that do not have prior written consent from his office.
What started as a humanitarian crisis morphed into a hunt for Qaddafi and his death….and then the country broke into factions and the conflict ensued…the same conflict that has inflicted Iraq and Syria…..
Once again NATO has brought death, destruction and confusion to another country….and then it backs out and lets it descend into further chaos to the point that their intervention is seen as giving help to the helpless…..it all looks like the same plan that NATO is using around the world.
Found this article after I posted my thoughts on Libya…..after reading I see that it should have been included…..
On 20 October 2011, former Libyan leader Colonel Muammar Qadhafi was dragged out of his sewage-pipe hideout to meet his inglorious end. Five years on and things in Libya couldn’t be much worse. There is still no centralised authority; killing, abduction and torture are rife; the economy is almost on its knees; and the country has fragmented beyond repair. The triumphalism that accompanied Qadhafi’s removal from power can hardly have been more misplaced.

Much of the chaos that has enveloped the country is down to the Libyans themselves. The blame for the incessant squabbling and local turf wars that have eclipsed all sense of a national good must be laid squarely at the door of Libya’s new powerbrokers. There is also the legacy of forty years of rule by a ruthless dictator whose uncompromising vision of the state stripped the country of functioning institutions and its population of a political culture. In addition, the sudden toppling of a highly centralised authority was always going to mean that the country would struggle to get back on its feet.

Will There Be Political Civil Wars?

This election has seen just about everything possible when it comes to political theory and action.  We have huge differences within the Democratic Party…..and the GOP has not fared too well either….both parties have deep divides  and depending on the outcome of this election could erupt in a political civil war within the parties……

First the GOP….since Trump became the nominee there have been widening chasm in the different factions within the party…….and it looks as if a long predicted interior revolt is simmering……

Whom among us, upon hearing of the grave and perhaps existential threats now facing the Republican Party, is entirely immune to the siren song of schadenfreude? Who from the liberal classes can entirely resist the temptation, when reading about the bitter divisions now rending the GOP, to mutter, “Now that’s a god damn shame,” and then issue forth with a soft and mordant chuckle?

And as Donald Trump spirals down ever further, his descent into humiliation propelled by his own pheromonal and lubricious self-regard, what right-thinking human being can resist whispering a quaint saying of yesteryear? You know the one:

Source: The Republicans’ Civil War – And Everyone Else’s – LA Progressive

But what about the Dems?

The primaries showed the 2 wings within the party and even though Bernie lost and then endorsed Clinton there still a wide divide in the people within the party…..to the point that they also could be looking at an interior struggle…….

As I peruse the receipts of corruption & betrayal otherwise known as the Podesta email leaks, it seems clear as day that there never was & there will never be a place for young people, progressives, socialists, environmentalists or anti-war activists in the democratic party — in fact, it seems the democrats have earned their place beside our wealthy rulers by subverting & incrementalizing[note¹] people’s movements for social, racial, environmental, & economic justice. With every new leak, the evidence of the party’s corruption becomes harder for even their co-conspirators in the corporate media to spin or ignore — but when will their voters abandon them?

Source: The Democrats Must Be Destroyed to Build a Peoples’ Party – The Writing of John Laurits

Personally I think that an internal struggle within the parties could be good for the system…..and since I am still a radical deep down……I like the thought of this possible civil war.

Any thoughts?

Debates: Third Time’s A Charm

The last in a long line of totally worthless exercises in stupid…..ends tonight.

The Third and final debate of the 2016 election season (and none too soon)…..as usual I refuse to watch the crap storm…..I have a book I need to finish….but since there may be some readers out there that still think the election is worth the time invested……

Good news for Hillary Clinton: Many pundits say you won the final debate. Good news for Donald Trump: A lot of them say it was close. Good news for America: You’ll never have to watch these two debate again. The showdown in Vegas turned out to be more policy-focused affair than the first two debates, though there was no shortage of angry exchanges—and coverage is being dominated by Trump’s refusal to commit to accepting the election results. A round-up of debate reactions:

  • Both candidates turned in their best performance of the three debates, according to Chris Cillizza at the Washington Post, who declares Clinton the winner. “She finally figured out the right calibration of ignoring and engaging Trump,” he writes, while Trump’s answer on accepting election results “was a total disaster and will be the only thing people are talking about coming out of the debate.”
  • For a few minutes early on, “we had something like a normal debate,” with candidates setting out familiar policy positions, writes Arthur C. Brooks at the New York Times. But as the evening went on, “concrete solutions mostly disappeared and the tone became far more biting and sarcastic. The candidates were openly contemptuous and disrespectful of each other,” he writes, declaring the only winner to be the “grim status quo” of this election.
  • “This was no game changer, and no knockout punches,” writes Jim Geraghty at the National Review—except for Trump’s refusal to commit to accepting the election results, which could count as a “self-inflicted knockout punch.”
  • Caleb Howe at Redstate.com declares Clinton and Trump joint winners in their attempts to win over undecided voters: Both know that they are hated by many voters, he notes, and while Trump “appealed the haters who lean right, she appealed to the haters who lean left.”
  • Trump desperately needed a win and for a while it looked like he would get one, writes David Gergen at CNN, where 52% of those polled called Clinton the winner, compared to 39% for Trump. After 40 minutes, Gergen writes, Trump “began to lose steam and, importantly, lose control of his ego. Wild charges, interruptions, defensiveness all resurfaced—some would say his persecution complex kicked in.”
  • If it wasn’t for refusing to commit to respecting the election results and his crack about Clinton being a “nasty woman,” “maybe you could call it a draw,” writes Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight. “The thing is, even a draw would be a bad outcome for Trump, who is 7 points behind Clinton and has few remaining opportunities to catch up,” he writes. But Trump may not fall further in the polls, “because he’s fallen pretty far already and he gave his 35% base some things to be energized about tonight.”
  • Ric Anderson at the Las Vegas Sun thinks Clinton came out ahead: Trump was able to, “for the most part, focus on issues and keep his emotions in check,” he writes, but his “gloom-and-doom assessment of the economy” will not resonate with voters in Nevada, where the economy has been doing very well for years, while Clinton “stayed the course with her message of creating jobs” in areas including infrastructure improvement.

I had to watch it in repeat…..not that I wanted to but rather to see if what I read and heard about the thing were accurate…..

I have two other points that were not made…..

First, the battle for Mosul has begun and the candidates talked about it and not once did they mention that US troops are leading the charge….no wishes for a speedy return of our guys…..NOT one word for them….these are the political props that all fake patriots use but in reality could care less.

Second, it was billed as a debate….it was NO such thing!  What it was was a school yard argument of insults and innuendoes….

Third, that was the most immature outing for supposedly rational adults that I have ever witnessed…all that was missing was the sticking out of tongues after a point was made.

Finally, anyone that votes for either of these d/bags needs their fucking head examined.

Could A New Cold War Be Worse Than the Last?

There is lots of talk about our relations with Russia these days…..especially during the election process…..there are lots of images being past around about the Lat Cold War…….and even some predictions that we are in or headed to a new confrontation with Russia…..

Murray Polner: Nowadays, Washington’s gung-ho cold warriors, few of whom have ever worn a military uniform, and our obsequious mass media, have convinced far too many Americans to dutifully accept the Grand Illusion that, America’s role is to right the wrongs of the world.

The older I become the more I realize that the movies I watched as a kid  somehow taught us how to deal with enemies, real and imagined, at home or abroad. In my beloved cowboy films everything boiled down to good guys/ bad guys, moral oversimplifications and victories delivered by six-shooters. It was clean, swift and uncomplicated, with no remorse.

A very smart, if cynical John LeCarre put it another way with his more realistic “Rule One of the Cold War,” which is just as true in today’s emerging new Cold War: “Nothing, absolutely nothing is what it seems. Everyone has a second motive, if not a third.” That’s certainly true in today’s Syria and everywhere else.

Source: Why the New Cold War Could Be Worse Than the Last Cold War – LA Progressive

Campaign rhetoric aside….does anyone think that we will return to the days of the Cold War hysteria?

There is a need to find a balance between sanctioning Russia for its recent transgressions of international norms and keeping the door open for better relations in the future.”

This year, the tragedies and outrages of the Ukraine crisis have dominated headlines and thinking about Western relations with Russia. There can be little doubt that the United States and its European allies and partners need a response to the Russian annexation of Crimea, to the destabilization of eastern Ukraine, to the separatists’ downing of a civilian airliner—and to the threat to global order that all of these actions represent.

Source: How to Avoid a New Cold War | Brookings Institution

After careful deliberation…..depending on the outcome of the election…..then we will return to “Cold War” footing.

But in case there is still any doubt out there is the blogoshere…..

The Russian Parliament on Wednesday approved the suspension of a cooperative weapons-grade plutonium disposal agreement with the United States, formalizing one of the sharpest downturns in relations between Moscow and Washington since the start of the Ukraine crisis in 2014.

According to the Tass news agency, the measure was adopted virtually unanimously by the State Duma, Russia’s lower house of parliament. Of the deputies present, 445 supported its adoption, and only one member of parliament abstained.

Source: Russian Parliament Approves Suspension of Nuclear Cooperation with US | World Affairs Journal

Somewhere out there a smile is creeping across the face of a neocon……this made me think of the music of my youth…..

Iraq: Battle For Hearts And Minds

The big news of the week is that the battle for Mosul has finally begun….after months of moving equipment and men around all the prep work has come to the “final” battle…..

If you have been living under a rock and not aware of the situation in Iraq…then I can be of assistance…..

Source: War Against Islamic State in Iraq

I felt it necessary for my readers to be notified of the start of thew battle for I had no confidence that it would be a priority for the MSM……

The war in Iraq has not been in the headlines later even though about a 100 people a day die….the media rather play on an endless loop the gossip coming out of both sides of the election̷…

Source: Iraq: And So It Begins – In Saner Thought

Even if the battle is won and ISIS takes it on the lame….will this be the end of the problems in Iraq?

The Unesco constitution says: “Since wars begin in the minds of men, it is in the minds of men that the defences of peace must be constructed.”

The only thing people seem to agree about the current battle for Mosul is that Isis will be defeated militarily and the city retaken. Militarily, Isis is losing. But progress on giving Sunnis in Mosul reasons to believe in their future and to support the country’s Shia-dominated government remains elusive. And this is the key battleground: without victory here, we will be locked into a cycle of violence without end.

Source: The battle for Mosul is not just coalition (good) v Isis (bad) | Jonathan Shaw | Opinion | The Guardian

Any defeat of ISIS is a welcome story….but in Iraq’s case the possibility of it sinking into further violence is possible…..we have the Iraqi military, the shi’a militias and the Pesh Merga fighting to liberate Mosul….but why?

Each one of them has an agenda…..and not one of them is fighting for the nation of Iraq…..

Iraq could sink into the divisions that have all players in Syria at each others throats…..none have any idea what is at stake beyond their own petty dreams of power….Iraq is looking as a similar problem for the world to sort out.

I say the world because…..well they created the problem….they need to man up and handle it.

Afghanistan: 15 Year War

We do not hear much about Afghanistan these days even though it is our longest war….EVER!

But for those that are interested…..another American soldier has died in defense of their country…..

A U.S. service member and a U.S. civilian died Wednesday after an attack near a coalition base in Kabul, according to a U.S. Forces Afghanistan news release.

The attack was carried out by an unknown assailant, who was later killed, according to the release. The release does not elaborate on the nature of the attack.

In addition to the two deaths, one U.S. service member and two U.S. civilians were injured. They are in stable condition.

The two people who were killed were carrying out unspecified duties associated with the NATO mission to train, advise and assist Afghan forces, according to the release.

I realize that few seem to care about the death of an American soldier…that is until it can be used as a political prop (a practice I find distasteful and pathetic)…….but I will be the conscience of the country if I must……

There is more about Afghanistan……we here that the Afghan army is doing well just they need more planes and such to be successful…..but is that true?

15 years into the NATO occupation of Afghanistan, the Taliban controls more territory now than at any other time during the war, and the losses continue to mount for the Afghan government. The war has never been going “well,” exactly, but the losses are becoming a lot more visible.

the NATO nations involved in the war invested heavily in capturing and holding certain key cities, and as they began to draw down their forces, many nations sold these territorial gains, however limited they were, as their chief military accomplishments. Now, they’re watching those cities fall.

These stories exist everywhere around Afghanistan, as NATO spent billions to build up an Afghan military which is falling apart at the seams, unable to properly defend much of anything, and likewise unable to recruit enough people to make up for their losses.

Afghan officials are downplaying the losses, insisting they are temporary. Yet they are losing an estimated 10,000 police a year just to casualties, above what they’re able to recruit, and in the military, force levels have always been dubious, given the widespread corruption and existence of tens of thousands of “ghost troops” created by crooked officials just to collect salaries.

(antiwar.com)

So as you can read….Afghanistan is NOT the success that some would have you believe……after 15 years it is time for the US to consider whether they want to invest more lives and money in a cause that is falling apart as I type.

Is it worth further investment?

2016: The Song Remains The Same

In recent years the TV and the media has played a valuable service by predicting the winner of the election….this year has been anything but normal but with that said….the closer the election gets the more familiar the reports become….

A clear theme is emerging in political coverage, one that suggests a shift in thinking in DC from a probable Hillary Clinton victory to a certain Clinton victory, with the only question being how big it will be and whether the Democrats take over Congress. Examples:

  • “With Donald Trump’s path to victory so narrow that he appears to be looking beyond the election … the focus of the presidential race is shifting down the ballot. Democrats are making new investments in red states to help party candidates, while Republicans are focusing on salvaging their congressional majorities.” Real Clear Politics.
  • “Trump’s free fall is forcing American Action Network and its sister PAC, Congressional Leadership Fund, to also shell out millions in red-leaning districts that weren’t even in play until this month. Their suddenly urgent mission: Build a firewall to prevent a Democratic takeover of the House.” Politico.
  • “The pivot is a sign that Clinton is confident enough in her own prospects to start thinking about what comes after Nov. 8, when she’ll need a friendly Senate to approve her nominees, and would like to help Democrats make inroads in the House. Her advisers feel they’ve made Trump as radioactive as possible, so now is the time to use him against his colleagues.” NBC News.
  • “The maneuvering speaks to the unexpected tension facing Mrs. Clinton as she hurtles toward what aides increasingly believe will be a decisive victory—a pleasant problem, for certain, but one that has nonetheless scrambled the campaign’s strategy weeks before Election Day: Should Mrs. Clinton maximize her own margin, aiming to flip as many red states as possible to run up an electoral landslide, or prioritize the party’s congressional fortunes, redirecting funds and energy down the ballot?” The New York Times.
  • “With Clinton favored to win the presidential election in November, she and other allies are shifting their gaze to the Senate and House races that will determine whether she has a Congress that can help her advance her agenda or one that will be an intransigent roadblock, as Congress has been for President Barack Obama.” Newsweek.
  • “The GOP’s wisest course of action now, with Trump clearly headed for defeat, is to quietly concede the presidential race and spread the message that Republican voters must support their Congressional candidates to block the Clinton agenda. And with Clinton’s poor approval ratings, this is a message that could resonate with independents as well.” Cliston Brown at the Observer, whose publisher is Trump son-in-law Jared Kushner.
  • FiveThirtyEight puts Clinton’s current chance of victory at 88%.

Keep in mind that the election of 2012 was predicted to be a nail biter….it was anything but….Romney had his ass handed to him by Obama…..

Just a reminder before you believe everything you read or hear……

“Trump News Network”

There has been lots of verbiage on the treatment Trump is getting in the media….most of his supporters feel they are being unduly targeted for their support…..I can see where they would be feeling thus……I have some stuff uttered on the news that I do not think needs to be said….that is until there is concrete proof.

This brings me to a loyal reader of IST, The Ripening Wanderer, while we may not always agree I cherish his input.  He recently wrote a post that called for a possible “Trump News Network” and I quote:  “I think it is high time for Americans to be able to turn on their radios and their TVs and go to the “Trump News Network.”

Source: THE RIPENING WANDERER | My Personal WordPress.Com Web Log (Blog)

And that is where I pick up this post…..he may very well get his desire…..

Donald Trump said last month he has zero interest in forming a media company, but a short conversation said to have taken place between his son-in-law and the head of an independent investment bank has generated new buzz around that rumor. Per Reuters, three sources “with knowledge of the matter” tell the Financial Times that Jared Kushner, husband to Ivanka Trump and publisher of the weekly New York Observer, met “informally” with LionTree Advisors CEO Aryeh Bourkoff sometime over the last two months to brainstorm about a possible Trump TV network. Vanity Fair notes Bourkoff was the driving force behind Verizon’s 2015 AOL buy and Charter Communications’ takeover of Time Warner Cable earlier this year. Not everyone is surprised at whispers of this new possible mine for Trump to plumb after the election is over, CNNMoney notes.

“Who could have possibly seen this one coming?” was the sarcastic tweet of GOP Sen. Ben Sasse about the possibility of a Trump network, which CNN points out would potentially take on Fox News from the right, and which CNN President Jeff Zucker has said is “harder to do than people think it is.” It’s also not terribly surprising Kushner may be the one putting out feelers for this type of deal, as he’s been instrumental in his father-in-law’s campaign and is a Bourkoff pal. Vanity Fair points out the concept isn’t so outlandish as “the wheels continue to come off” Trump’s campaign for the presidency and notes discussion about a “post-election media goldmine makes a whole lot more sense” than other things Trump’s done of late. Also in his favor: “He’s a billionaire entertainer who shines on reality shows and beauty-pageant stages and tabloid covers.” Neither Kushner nor Bourkoff have commented.

I was skeptical back when Trump announced his candidacy…I said then that he was only trying to build his brand…..even though he has come a long way since he announced I still feel that he is only trying to find a way to make some money off this experience.

Fear of a Rigged Election Is Not New

As the election grows closer Mr. Trump has revved up the rhetoric about a “rigged” election…….and his words are finding fertile ground among the voters…..

(Oh God another of his historical perspectives)

But is his rhetoric anything new?

What’s new is that Trump himself is leading the charge. But will that make a difference?

It’s getting harder to maintain any serious suspense about who will win the presidential election, so the focus has started shifting to the day after Election Day. Trump, trailing badly, has taken to preemptively declaring that if he loses, it will be because the game was rigged against him. A new Politico poll shows 41 percent of the voters, and 73 percent of Republicans, saying he may be right. So now the airwaves are full of fears about what could happen if Americans take those charges to heart. Here’s CNN, for instance: “His accusations alone, experts say, could inflict long-standing damage on the US political system itself by eroding trust in the probity of the electoral process.”

Source: The Fear of a Rigged Election Is Not New – Hit & Run : Reason.com

I am reminded of that Philly thing about the New Black Panther Party (have nothing to do with the original) and how that 80 second vid caught fire and was used to claim fraud all over…..it was bullshit……

But then I think ALL elections are rigged…….why else would we be so afraid of third parties?

Look at any third party candidate…..the media will go out of its way to lessen the impact that they could have on any given election.

What is there to be afraid of in a democracy?

If you were hoping for something different in this election….then sadly we will be horribly disappointed.